Opinions are akin to speculation, which is another word for guessing. AAPL was $700 a short time ago and now it is flirting with $500 despite double digit earnings and a super-low P/E. Clearly something foul is afoot- short selling and profit taking along with the fiscal cliff worries. Yet Google, a one-horse advertisement pony is at all times high of over $700 and I hear no one in the Wall Street analyst community or amateur blogs that GOOG is over-priced, I see a prejudice here.
Fancy this FACT about Apple, it has over $120 billion in cash and this will rise in 2013 to approx $200 billion. From 2013 through 2016, there will be an annual cash profit of $50 billion per year - this assuming nothing new in its product cycle. AAPL will within 5 years have approx $500 billion in cash for which the future stockholder can expect an increase in dividend amounts as a minimum.
Funny, for someone who is down on leveraged investing, you sure don't hesitate to make some very confident-sounding predictions about what will happen 4 years from now.
I guess everyone just thinks the type of gambling they don't do is speculation, while the type they do do is investing. Right?
Man you must wish you could take back your words because 2 million people can afford the iPhone 5. For a country that has 1.4 billion people that not a large number of people (1.5%), but still a good number and doubt the sales will stop there.
Check your math. That would be 0.15% and yes there is plenty of room for more Apple sales. Once the 'wealth wave' has their iPhones I believe things might taper a little if Apple can't offer some price relief, but for the first quarter they should do pretty well.
Thank you, I'll be sure to fwd your 'opinion' off to my friends at Reuters, ML and Charles Schwab. Remember even projections for Bell Weather stocks like IBM and MSFT have proven to be accurate within a deviation of =/- 5% recently, for other more votive equities and those associated with the metal markets and energy, of course, such predictive analysis and forecasts have not proven correct and for which there is less quantifiable and reputable market analyst reports. Remeber predictive earnings are not the same or precisely correlated with a equities given stock price. The value of any stock to an investor is capital appreciation and dividends. 'Yes' the capital appreciation for AAPL will most likely flat-line out between a moderating range of $700 - $$950 without any new dramatic product line introductions (very unlikely for AAPL over the next 5 years - otherwise your comments on the equity price will be validated. However, it is the dividend increases that are more likely for the investor vice the stock appreciation as per the conservative cash flow models predicted by the major brokerage house analysts. So why does the price drop? Simple- human emotions, which outweigh mathematical and long-term (for wall Street this means months) cash flows.
Thank you, I'll be sure to fwd your 'opinion' off to my friends at Reuters, ML and Charles Schwab. Remember even projections for Bell Weather stocks like IBM and MSFT have proven to be accurate within a deviation of =/- 5% recently, for other more votive equities and those associated with the metal markets and energy, of course, such predictive analysis and forecasts have not proven correct and for which there is less quantifiable and reputable market analyst reports. Remeber predictive earnings are not the same or precisely correlated with a equities given stock price. The value of any stock to an investor is capital appreciation and dividends. 'Yes' the capital appreciation for AAPL will most likely flat-line out between a moderating range of $700 - $$950 without any new dramatic product line introductions (very unlikely for AAPL over the next 5 years - otherwise your comments on the equity price will be validated. However, it is the dividend increases that are more likely for the investor vice the stock appreciation as per the conservative cash flow models predicted by the major brokerage house analysts. So why does the price drop? Simple- human emotions, which outweigh mathematical and long-term (for wall Street this means months) cash flows.
Who said there is only one person lining for iPhone 5 in china ? Come Out , your ass up to the sky and I kick your ass now . The AAPL bears now keep finding bullshit excuse for pushing AAPL now . Why don't the bulls fight back ?
Thank you, I'll be sure to fwd your 'opinion' off to my friends at Reuters, ML and Charles Schwab. Remember even projections for Bell Weather stocks like IBM and MSFT have proven to be accurate within a deviation of =/- 5% recently, for other more votive equities and those associated with the metal markets and energy, of course, such predictive analysis and forecasts have not proven correct and for which there is less quantifiable and reputable market analyst reports. Remeber predictive earnings are not the same or precisely correlated with a equities given stock price. The value of any stock to an investor is capital appreciation and dividends. 'Yes' the capital appreciation for AAPL will most likely flat-line out between a moderating range of $700 - $$950 without any new dramatic product line introductions (very unlikely for AAPL over the next 5 years - otherwise your comments on the equity price will be validated. However, it is the dividend increases that are more likely for the investor vice the stock appreciation as per the conservative cash flow models predicted by the major brokerage house analysts. So why does the price drop? Simple- human emotions, which outweigh mathematical and long-term (for wall Street this means months) cash flows.
LOL… Welcome to this message board. If you think you're the only one who happens to know something about investing, you're going to find this a little bit unsatisfying. It's obvious when someone is trying to throw around the biggest words they know to try to impress people. No one here is going to be impressed.
So will there ever be anything even remotely resembling an apology when these LIARS and IDIOTS manipulating the stock are wrong? Is there any legal recourse that Apple can take to protect themselves from this?
If not, this is basically the financial world equivalent of it being illegal for us to remove spam from the forum. But obviously infinitely more important, given that it's money involved.
Apple needs to buy itself and go private again. Keep breaking all of its sales and profit records quarter after quarter with no one to please but its customers, and be able to give two thumbs down (and simultaneously two birds up) to the analysts and shorters.
A stocks valuation is determined by:
The net present value of all future expected earnings.
That is a very tricky thing. Not only do you have to guess the future with whatever information you have today, but things like unexpected interest rate changes can cause an inflection in the NPV calculations and shift markets accordingly.
So essentially these 'idiot analysts' (and I put that in quotes because they are typically some of the smartest people you can find) have the job of predicting the future and estimating a stock target accordingly. They are usually very good at what they do and companies missing estimates by only a few pennies per share is the norm (if they miss at all).
In the cell phone market the 'future expected earnings' part can be summarized as 'number of units sold x margins per unit'
Apple at one time was valued at what, $660 billion dollars??!! That is based on a prediction of them selling a whole bunch of units at a very large margin.
Getting mad at analysts when a stock drops because a company doesn't meet expectations isn't really rational. It is part of the definition of the stock price. In fact, analysts with outrageously high expectations are exactly what is required to have an outrageously high stock price. By definition.
Apple does have some very high expectations. But that is also the basis of having the crazy insane market value that it has. In order to hold that value Apple has to do both- sell a crazy large amount of phones AND at a crazy large margin. If it can't do both it is incorrectly priced and its value is going to drop.
Yes, it is all about expectations... But statements like 'Apple sold 2 million units and its stock is going to drop but if Microsoft sold that many they'd be jumping through the roof- analysts are biased against Apple!' just don't make any sense. If Apples valuation was based on them selling 4 million units and they 'only' sold 2 million phones then it means their prior valuation was excessively high. Their stock valuation target should drop by '2 million units x margin per unit/shares outstanding' It is straightforward math. If Microsofts stock value was based on them selling 10,000 phones in China and all of a sudden they sold 2,000,000 you betcha their stock would go up. While it might not sound 'fair' on paper it is the very reason Apple has more than double the market value of Microsoft.
Who said there is only one person lining for iPhone 5 in china ? Come Out , your ass up to the sky and I kick your ass now .
The AAPL bears now keep finding bullshit excuse for pushing AAPL now . Why don't the bulls fight back ?
The bulls want cheaper prices?
If Apple wasn't making any money and had high debt, then, sure, they could push it to zero... but the 2nd q results are just around the corner and that will push up the price... it still might not make Wall Street a bull of Apple though.
I don't know if there's a conspiracy or not, but there are definitely people out there who are trying to manipulate Apple's stock price by constantly making up bogus negative news stories. Maybe these people have shorted the stock, and perhaps they're hoping for it to go more down. Who knows what deranged motives these scumbags might have?
First you had these moronic news reports written by some not too intelligent fools about how supposedly quiet the iPhone 5 launch in China was, in some sort of evil attempt to frame the story as if the iPhone 5 were a huge flop in China. This might sound totally far fetched, but could it possibly be that part of the reason why masses of Chinese people weren't lying up, is because of the reservation system, and also because many were being sold through third party retailers?
And then you have some analysts at Citigroup come out with some BS about downgrading the stock.
And then Apple releases a press release announcing record iPhone 5 sales in China! One of Citigroup's reasons for downgrading AAPL was because of "weak iPhone demand"! Those knuckle-dragging Citigroup analysts sure look like a bunch of asshats now!
And then you have Morgan Stanley coming out and saying that iPhone demand is off the charts!
Who is the market going to listen to tomorrow? A bunch of asshats at Citigroup who have already been proven wrong with their wild, outrageous and possibly illegal drug induced speculation or are you going to believe real, official sales figures from Apple (unlike other companies that are chicken shit liars, and always too scared to release any sales figures at all), and glowing praise from Morgan Stanley?
The 2 Millions were actually the total amount of order that could be processed. Unlike US where you could queue and walk in, iPhone has to be reserved online or buy with contract from Mobile Networks. 2 Million is actually a pretty decent number, lets not forget there were properly a larger number of iPhone 5 users buying from Hong Kong instead.
The Fact those Firms released FUD and downgrade a stock only do so they could buy on cheap. And i could never understand why this is legal.
So will there ever be anything even remotely resembling an apology when these LIARS and IDIOTS manipulating the stock are wrong? Is there any legal recourse that Apple can take to protect themselves from this?
If not, this is basically the financial world equivalent of it being illegal for us to remove spam from the forum. But obviously infinitely more important, given that it's money involved.
Apple needs to buy itself and go private again. Keep breaking all of its sales and profit records quarter after quarter with no one to please but its customers, and be able to give two thumbs down (and simultaneously two birds up) to the analysts and shorters.
Note that he wrote, "By the way... if you were really paying attention you'd know that this symbol, "¡", is used to indicate sarcasm."
This forum might be the only English speaking forum that uses the irony punctuation but I think it's been used frequently enough and over a long enough time frame to be common knowledge to regulars on this forum.
Kinda disheartening for myself as an investor in a small number of AAPL shares. 2m units seems pretty decent, maybe not decent enough for analysts and Wall Street huh.
So far every (or almost every?) iPhone launch has topped the previous one. However, I feel this is mainly due to an increase of potential market compared to the previous launch as well (#countries, carriers). In "old" markets the inevitable saturation has started to take place. Therefore it appears quite illogical to assume that any future release surpasses the previous ones. Unless Apple is working on rumored products to address te lower price range market as well. The enormous success of Apple in recent years has created a RDF not so much within Apple IMO, but more on the side of analysts and "general public" expecting completely insane things in terms of future development.
Yes, new product categories open new markets. Such as iTunes Store, iPod, iPad etc. yes, one day apple is only of of many to offer similar products. And yes,any will take on their best practices. Not going into patent stuff here. Just what I expect based on observation.
So until there is a new revolutionary step, such as tv or whatever, it will be evolution with all consequences. And I feel they are doing a great job there and making good profit while not having user experience suffer too much.
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by Future Man
Opinions are akin to speculation, which is another word for guessing. AAPL was $700 a short time ago and now it is flirting with $500 despite double digit earnings and a super-low P/E. Clearly something foul is afoot- short selling and profit taking along with the fiscal cliff worries. Yet Google, a one-horse advertisement pony is at all times high of over $700 and I hear no one in the Wall Street analyst community or amateur blogs that GOOG is over-priced, I see a prejudice here.
Fancy this FACT about Apple, it has over $120 billion in cash and this will rise in 2013 to approx $200 billion. From 2013 through 2016, there will be an annual cash profit of $50 billion per year - this assuming nothing new in its product cycle. AAPL will within 5 years have approx $500 billion in cash for which the future stockholder can expect an increase in dividend amounts as a minimum.
Funny, for someone who is down on leveraged investing, you sure don't hesitate to make some very confident-sounding predictions about what will happen 4 years from now.
I guess everyone just thinks the type of gambling they don't do is speculation, while the type they do do is investing. Right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by souliisoul
Man you must wish you could take back your words because 2 million people can afford the iPhone 5. For a country that has 1.4 billion people that not a large number of people (1.5%), but still a good number and doubt the sales will stop there.
Check your math. That would be 0.15% and yes there is plenty of room for more Apple sales. Once the 'wealth wave' has their iPhones I believe things might taper a little if Apple can't offer some price relief, but for the first quarter they should do pretty well.
Thank you, I'll be sure to fwd your 'opinion' off to my friends at Reuters, ML and Charles Schwab. Remember even projections for Bell Weather stocks like IBM and MSFT have proven to be accurate within a deviation of =/- 5% recently, for other more votive equities and those associated with the metal markets and energy, of course, such predictive analysis and forecasts have not proven correct and for which there is less quantifiable and reputable market analyst reports. Remeber predictive earnings are not the same or precisely correlated with a equities given stock price. The value of any stock to an investor is capital appreciation and dividends. 'Yes' the capital appreciation for AAPL will most likely flat-line out between a moderating range of $700 - $$950 without any new dramatic product line introductions (very unlikely for AAPL over the next 5 years - otherwise your comments on the equity price will be validated. However, it is the dividend increases that are more likely for the investor vice the stock appreciation as per the conservative cash flow models predicted by the major brokerage house analysts. So why does the price drop? Simple- human emotions, which outweigh mathematical and long-term (for wall Street this means months) cash flows.
Thank you, I'll be sure to fwd your 'opinion' off to my friends at Reuters, ML and Charles Schwab. Remember even projections for Bell Weather stocks like IBM and MSFT have proven to be accurate within a deviation of =/- 5% recently, for other more votive equities and those associated with the metal markets and energy, of course, such predictive analysis and forecasts have not proven correct and for which there is less quantifiable and reputable market analyst reports. Remeber predictive earnings are not the same or precisely correlated with a equities given stock price. The value of any stock to an investor is capital appreciation and dividends. 'Yes' the capital appreciation for AAPL will most likely flat-line out between a moderating range of $700 - $$950 without any new dramatic product line introductions (very unlikely for AAPL over the next 5 years - otherwise your comments on the equity price will be validated. However, it is the dividend increases that are more likely for the investor vice the stock appreciation as per the conservative cash flow models predicted by the major brokerage house analysts. So why does the price drop? Simple- human emotions, which outweigh mathematical and long-term (for wall Street this means months) cash flows.
The AAPL bears now keep finding bullshit excuse for pushing AAPL now . Why don't the bulls fight back ?
LOL… Welcome to this message board. If you think you're the only one who happens to know something about investing, you're going to find this a little bit unsatisfying. It's obvious when someone is trying to throw around the biggest words they know to try to impress people. No one here is going to be impressed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
So will there ever be anything even remotely resembling an apology when these LIARS and IDIOTS manipulating the stock are wrong? Is there any legal recourse that Apple can take to protect themselves from this?
If not, this is basically the financial world equivalent of it being illegal for us to remove spam from the forum. But obviously infinitely more important, given that it's money involved.
Apple needs to buy itself and go private again. Keep breaking all of its sales and profit records quarter after quarter with no one to please but its customers, and be able to give two thumbs down (and simultaneously two birds up) to the analysts and shorters.
A stocks valuation is determined by:
The net present value of all future expected earnings.
That is a very tricky thing. Not only do you have to guess the future with whatever information you have today, but things like unexpected interest rate changes can cause an inflection in the NPV calculations and shift markets accordingly.
So essentially these 'idiot analysts' (and I put that in quotes because they are typically some of the smartest people you can find) have the job of predicting the future and estimating a stock target accordingly. They are usually very good at what they do and companies missing estimates by only a few pennies per share is the norm (if they miss at all).
In the cell phone market the 'future expected earnings' part can be summarized as 'number of units sold x margins per unit'
Apple at one time was valued at what, $660 billion dollars??!! That is based on a prediction of them selling a whole bunch of units at a very large margin.
Getting mad at analysts when a stock drops because a company doesn't meet expectations isn't really rational. It is part of the definition of the stock price. In fact, analysts with outrageously high expectations are exactly what is required to have an outrageously high stock price. By definition.
Apple does have some very high expectations. But that is also the basis of having the crazy insane market value that it has. In order to hold that value Apple has to do both- sell a crazy large amount of phones AND at a crazy large margin. If it can't do both it is incorrectly priced and its value is going to drop.
Yes, it is all about expectations... But statements like 'Apple sold 2 million units and its stock is going to drop but if Microsoft sold that many they'd be jumping through the roof- analysts are biased against Apple!' just don't make any sense. If Apples valuation was based on them selling 4 million units and they 'only' sold 2 million phones then it means their prior valuation was excessively high. Their stock valuation target should drop by '2 million units x margin per unit/shares outstanding' It is straightforward math. If Microsofts stock value was based on them selling 10,000 phones in China and all of a sudden they sold 2,000,000 you betcha their stock would go up. While it might not sound 'fair' on paper it is the very reason Apple has more than double the market value of Microsoft.
Presumably, they had it rated a buy all the way from $705 to the low 500s. Now they want their clients to stop buying. SMH
Quote:
Originally Posted by raymondinperth
Who said there is only one person lining for iPhone 5 in china ? Come Out , your ass up to the sky and I kick your ass now .
The AAPL bears now keep finding bullshit excuse for pushing AAPL now . Why don't the bulls fight back ?
The bulls want cheaper prices?
If Apple wasn't making any money and had high debt, then, sure, they could push it to zero... but the 2nd q results are just around the corner and that will push up the price... it still might not make Wall Street a bull of Apple though.
Only 2 million.. that includes the 2week preorder time right? Wasn't last year 5mil+ in two weeks?
1) The iPhone 4S launched this year in China, not last year.
2) Yes, all weekend sales include pre-orders. It does not mean that sales are counted for the first week of pre-orders to get first weekend sales.
3) I see no evidence of the number of units for first weekend or two week sales of the iPhone 4S in China.
I don't know if there's a conspiracy or not, but there are definitely people out there who are trying to manipulate Apple's stock price by constantly making up bogus negative news stories. Maybe these people have shorted the stock, and perhaps they're hoping for it to go more down. Who knows what deranged motives these scumbags might have?
First you had these moronic news reports written by some not too intelligent fools about how supposedly quiet the iPhone 5 launch in China was, in some sort of evil attempt to frame the story as if the iPhone 5 were a huge flop in China. This might sound totally far fetched, but could it possibly be that part of the reason why masses of Chinese people weren't lying up, is because of the reservation system, and also because many were being sold through third party retailers?
And then you have some analysts at Citigroup come out with some BS about downgrading the stock.
And then Apple releases a press release announcing record iPhone 5 sales in China! One of Citigroup's reasons for downgrading AAPL was because of "weak iPhone demand"! Those knuckle-dragging Citigroup analysts sure look like a bunch of asshats now!
And then you have Morgan Stanley coming out and saying that iPhone demand is off the charts!
Who is the market going to listen to tomorrow? A bunch of asshats at Citigroup who have already been proven wrong with their wild, outrageous and possibly illegal drug induced speculation or are you going to believe real, official sales figures from Apple (unlike other companies that are chicken shit liars, and always too scared to release any sales figures at all), and glowing praise from Morgan Stanley?
I'm looking for AAPL to jump up 4% tomorrow.
The Fact those Firms released FUD and downgrade a stock only do so they could buy on cheap. And i could never understand why this is legal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider
Some pundits expressed concern that lines for the iPhone 5 were shorter than usual at Apple's retail stores throughout China.
I'm sure Samsung sees this as proof of the effectiveness of their commercials mocking those who wait in line for new Apple products. Yeah, right.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
So will there ever be anything even remotely resembling an apology when these LIARS and IDIOTS manipulating the stock are wrong? Is there any legal recourse that Apple can take to protect themselves from this?
If not, this is basically the financial world equivalent of it being illegal for us to remove spam from the forum. But obviously infinitely more important, given that it's money involved.
Apple needs to buy itself and go private again. Keep breaking all of its sales and profit records quarter after quarter with no one to please but its customers, and be able to give two thumbs down (and simultaneously two birds up) to the analysts and shorters.
The stock market is a gamblers market.
J.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frood
A stocks valuation is determined by:
the net sum of speculators and gambling idiots.
...
So essentially these 'idiot analysts' (and I underline that because they are typically some of the dumbest people you can find) have the job of
bla bla
...
Fixed that for you.
J.
You've done it again -- provided information that I didn't know that I needed to know..
I anticipate each of your posts more than the next [!]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Future Man
So why does the price drop? Simple- human emotions, which outweigh mathematical and long-term (for wall Street this means months) cash flows.
Rubbish. This movement is 100% pure manipulation. Anyone with half a brain should be able to realise that.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-17/apples-shares-decline-below-500-for-first-time-since-february.html?cmpid=yhoo
Kinda disheartening for myself as an investor in a small number of AAPL shares. 2m units seems pretty decent, maybe not decent enough for analysts and Wall Street huh.
The enormous success of Apple in recent years has created a RDF not so much within Apple IMO, but more on the side of analysts and "general public" expecting completely insane things in terms of future development.
Yes, new product categories open new markets. Such as iTunes Store, iPod, iPad etc. yes, one day apple is only of of many to offer similar products. And yes,any will take on their best practices. Not going into patent stuff here. Just what I expect based on observation.
So until there is a new revolutionary step, such as tv or whatever, it will be evolution with all consequences. And I feel they are doing a great job there and making good profit while not having user experience suffer too much.