Apple is doing a good job at the carrier sub model. In the U.S Apple can sustain its market share because they are on equal footing in price, and the iphone is a great product that is viewed as a power symbol.
The problem has to compete on price.
The biggest threat to Apple this year is the success of Tmobiles no sub for phones model. If that model works, and gets adopted by other carries Apple is screwed. Mid range Android phones and High range android phones and windows phones will eat Apple's profit margin alive. Yes Apple will sell iphones but if they keep the same pricing model, Apple profits take a punch as they will not sell as many phones.
If you are an Apple investor, keep hopping for telecom subsity model, because without it. What's happening in Europe will happen to Apple here in the U.S.
It's pretty obvious that by implying that the activation numbers shouldn't be relied on that he's attempting to deny the numbers in these reports. But, you knew that.
The fundamental issue is that there's no one source of information that's going to tell you how each platform is doing. In fact, that even begs the question - how are they doing with respect to WHAT? Sales? Profits? Installed base? Market share?
The entire picture comes from looking at all the different data available and trying to understand the interrelationships in order to get a true representation.
In terms of sales, the data presented here is one example of sales data - but covers US only and may or may not be representative of the population as a whole.
Profits are clearly well in Apple's favor - with Apple getting something like 75% of the industry's profits.
Use of the products also seems to be in Apple's favor - with a quite large percentage of internet access coming from iOS devices.
Developer profits is weighted heavily in Apple's favor. This is the factor that would matter if you were a developer.
Raw sales (global) is a difficult one to assess, at least partly because there's no solid definition of 'smartphone'. Some analyses include low end 'smartphones' which are really not much more than glorified feature phones. Others include only mid- to high- end smart phones. All things considered, it appears that there are more Android smartphones sold than iOS phones - with the difference being small or large, depending on whether you include the very low end or not.
In terms of single models, Apple wins hands down with the iPhone selling significantly more than any other single model. This would be important, for example, if you make cases.
Activations are interesting because it is hard to define what they mean. On the one hand, iPhones are more expensive than many Android phones, have greater customer satisfaction and reliability, and have the ability for the OS to be upgraded (which is actually a rarity in the Android world) so one might expect that the average iPhone would be passed down to a second or third user and therefore get activated several times in its life. In that case, the activation share for iPhones would be greater than the sales share. OTOH, Android phones seem to be used more by geeks and people who like to fiddle with their phones and if they need to reset the phone, it might be more likely for the number of activations to be higher. The result would be that Android's activation share might exceed the market share. Or both could be occurring with one factor being more important for one carrier and the other factor being more important for a different carrier. The difference between your activation figures and this article's sales figures suggests that this might be the case. No matter how you slice it, interpreting the meaning of activation numbers is more difficult than interpreting most of the other figures.
Bull. That's like saying Ford selling dirt cheap cars will cut into BMW's profits. People buy what they want.
Perfect example is the iPad, of which the majority of sales are outright purchases. This in a sea of dirt cheap tablets from Android vendors.
High end phones that compete with the iPhone are also expensive and people will have no qualms about spending an extra $100 for the real deal instead of some cheap knock off.
Activations are interesting because it is hard to define what they mean. On the one hand, iPhones are more expensive than many Android phones, have greater customer satisfaction and reliability, and have the ability for the OS to be upgraded (which is actually a rarity in the Android world) so one might expect that the average iPhone would be passed down to a second or third user and therefore get activated several times in its life. In that case, the activation share for iPhones would be greater than the sales share. OTOH, Android phones seem to be used more by geeks and people who like to fiddle with their phones and if they need to reset the phone, it might be more likely for the number of activations to be higher. The result would be that Android's activation share might exceed the market share. Or both could be occurring with one factor being more important for one carrier and the other factor being more important for a different carrier. The difference between your activation figures and this article's sales figures suggests that this might be the case. No matter how you slice it, interpreting the meaning of activation numbers is more difficult than interpreting most of the other figures.
That was a well-reasoned reply and pretty accurately represented IMO. The one spot you probably erred is guessing that resetting an Android phone results in another activation. Google addressed that directly and said it does not add to their activation numbers. Pretty sure I linked that for you several months ago, but perhaps you forgot or simply overlooked it.
That was a well-reasoned reply and pretty accurately represented IMO. The one spot you probably erred is guessing that resetting an Android phone results in another activation. Google addressed that directly and said it does not add to their activation numbers. Pretty sure I linked that for you several months ago, but perhaps you forgot or simply overlooked it.
That doesn't negate my answer.
First, Google's answer was ambiguous.
Second, Google has a history of presenting misleading results.
Third, these numbers are not from Google, and we don't know how they were determined or whether the activation figures presented here use the same or different methodology.
The fundamental issue is that there's no one source of information that's going to tell you how each platform is doing. In fact, that even begs the question - how are they doing with respect to WHAT? Sales? Profits? Installed base? Market share?
The entire picture comes from looking at all the different data available and trying to understand the interrelationships in order to get a true representation.
In terms of sales, the data presented here is one example of sales data - but covers US only and may or may not be representative of the population as a whole. ...
And, these numbers agree with the other numbers we've seen regarding carrier sales and activations in the US. It does only cover the US, but these and other numbers show that iPhone is outselling Android here, that significant numbers are abandoning Android for iOS, and, combined with usage stats, supports the notion that the bulk of Android activations reported by Google (assuming they are real numbers) are cheap "features phones" that carry no benefit for Google and the Android ecosystem.
Activations are interesting because it is hard to define what they mean. On the one hand, iPhones are more expensive than many Android phones, have greater customer satisfaction and reliability, and have the ability for the OS to be upgraded (which is actually a rarity in the Android world) so one might expect that the average iPhone would be passed down to a second or third user and therefore get activated several times in its life. In that case, the activation share for iPhones would be greater than the sales share.
Very well said, and quite true. iPhone upgrade loyalty does lead to more re-activations of used iPhones. I have a link giving percentages that I'll try to find for you.
As for other kinds of (re)activations, most resets don't require one. We'd need to figure out how many come from iOS jailbreaks and Android ROM changes.
As you said, they're not the best math unit to compare with.
That's why it makes more sense to simply use sales numbers, such as the ones that are the actual topic of this article.
"While still a rumor, some analysts believe the unannounced device will boast a design similar to the current iPhone 5, but will reduce costs by replacing expensive aluminum and glass parts with polycarbonate and plastic."
I can't help wondering what Steve Jobs would have thought of a cheap plastic Apple phone. Would such a phone pass his 'keys in pocket' test? Won't it drag down the perceived quality of the Apple brand?
all these surveys we see - even when legit - are going to have a significant margin of error because the situation is murky and hard data is only partially available. suffice to say iPhone is by far the most popular single smartphone, and overall has about 1/2 of the US market. clearly the iOS ecosystem is firmly established here, which propels sales of other Apple products too.
what does jump out of this survey is (1) RIM is near death in the US, and (2) new Windows Phones models are a flop. both their numbers are too small to pretend otherwise.
RIM is stronger overseas. but unlike Nokia, it can't survive as it is today without a credible US presence. if the new BB models don't succeed with about 5% of the 2013 US market, RIM will be forced into a sale, probably to some Asian OEM.
and Windows Phone ... by the same standard, if the new W8 Phone models can't gain about 5% of the US market this year they will become the new MS "hobby." but since MS won't give up (as long as Ballmer is in charge), it will then finally just take over Nokia outright to push them even harder next year.
i do expect Apple to fill out its product line and launch an iPhone mini this year - basically a souped-up iPod touch (which is pretty much an iPhone 4S inside), but as light and thin as technically possible. that would be a much stronger product in the marketplace than discounted past years' models, and even more attractive to overseas markets. yes, they will keep the same profit margin, don't worry about that ....
Activations are interesting because it is hard to define what they mean. On the one hand, iPhones are more expensive than many Android phones, have greater customer satisfaction and reliability, and have the ability for the OS to be upgraded (which is actually a rarity in the Android world) so one might expect that the average iPhone would be passed down to a second or third user and therefore get activated several times in its life. In that case, the activation share for iPhones would be greater than the sales share. OTOH, Android phones seem to be used more by geeks and people who like to fiddle with their phones and if they need to reset the phone, it might be more likely for the number of activations to be higher. The result would be that Android's activation share might exceed the market share. Or both could be occurring with one factor being more important for one carrier and the other factor being more important for a different carrier. The difference between your activation figures and this article's sales figures suggests that this might be the case. No matter how you slice it, interpreting the meaning of activation numbers is more difficult than interpreting most of the other figures.
That was a well-reasoned reply and pretty accurately represented IMO. The one spot you probably erred is guessing that resetting an Android phone results in another activation. Google addressed that directly and said it does not add to their activation numbers. Pretty sure I linked that for you several months ago, but perhaps you forgot or simply overlooked it.
Activations represent an ambiguous number. In the US market most phones are purchased on contract so the phone number stays the same over the course of any reactivations, however in the developing world, many smartphones especially Android, are reactivated with different phone numbers by the same user due to the fact that often they are being used with pay as you go SIMs and people switch between carriers a lot. Of course the same could be said for iPhones in the US as they are reactivated with new SIMs as they become resold or handed down devices. Those are reactivations too and also contribute to the web usage disparity as new iPhone users come online with used devices.
"Exactly what I was going to say. This was a loss for RIM, not Android." For Android not to grow in market percentage is extremely notable unto itself.
Apple is standing strong but it needs to keep innovating because the Chinese are trying to win the market. China has manufactured their own low priced iPhone look alikes. http://x.co/sJxx
No matter what figure are reported, the fandroid trolls just can't help themselves to jump on these forums to spread their FUD. Its like going to an opposing teams home game, heckling the players when your team isn't even there. Gator guy and KDarling must have something better to do, surly? Or are they so emotionally challenged, that it imperative of them to troll almost every story here, day in day out? Either have a strong drink, get some counseling or find something to make your life happy. Spreading your bile here just proves how inferior you must be feeling about yourselves. Myself, I read a good book, play games with my kids, or have conversation with a good friend. Try it. It may help you.
Comments
Apple is doing a good job at the carrier sub model. In the U.S Apple can sustain its market share because they are on equal footing in price, and the iphone is a great product that is viewed as a power symbol.
The problem has to compete on price.
The biggest threat to Apple this year is the success of Tmobiles no sub for phones model. If that model works, and gets adopted by other carries Apple is screwed. Mid range Android phones and High range android phones and windows phones will eat Apple's profit margin alive. Yes Apple will sell iphones but if they keep the same pricing model, Apple profits take a punch as they will not sell as many phones.
If you are an Apple investor, keep hopping for telecom subsity model, because without it. What's happening in Europe will happen to Apple here in the U.S.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Techstalker
If you are an Apple investor, keep hopping
How high?
The fundamental issue is that there's no one source of information that's going to tell you how each platform is doing. In fact, that even begs the question - how are they doing with respect to WHAT? Sales? Profits? Installed base? Market share?
The entire picture comes from looking at all the different data available and trying to understand the interrelationships in order to get a true representation.
In terms of sales, the data presented here is one example of sales data - but covers US only and may or may not be representative of the population as a whole.
Profits are clearly well in Apple's favor - with Apple getting something like 75% of the industry's profits.
Use of the products also seems to be in Apple's favor - with a quite large percentage of internet access coming from iOS devices.
Developer profits is weighted heavily in Apple's favor. This is the factor that would matter if you were a developer.
Raw sales (global) is a difficult one to assess, at least partly because there's no solid definition of 'smartphone'. Some analyses include low end 'smartphones' which are really not much more than glorified feature phones. Others include only mid- to high- end smart phones. All things considered, it appears that there are more Android smartphones sold than iOS phones - with the difference being small or large, depending on whether you include the very low end or not.
In terms of single models, Apple wins hands down with the iPhone selling significantly more than any other single model. This would be important, for example, if you make cases.
Activations are interesting because it is hard to define what they mean. On the one hand, iPhones are more expensive than many Android phones, have greater customer satisfaction and reliability, and have the ability for the OS to be upgraded (which is actually a rarity in the Android world) so one might expect that the average iPhone would be passed down to a second or third user and therefore get activated several times in its life. In that case, the activation share for iPhones would be greater than the sales share. OTOH, Android phones seem to be used more by geeks and people who like to fiddle with their phones and if they need to reset the phone, it might be more likely for the number of activations to be higher. The result would be that Android's activation share might exceed the market share. Or both could be occurring with one factor being more important for one carrier and the other factor being more important for a different carrier. The difference between your activation figures and this article's sales figures suggests that this might be the case. No matter how you slice it, interpreting the meaning of activation numbers is more difficult than interpreting most of the other figures.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling
If my purpose was to address the numbers in the title report, then I would've done so.
My post simply pointed out that, no matter what reports are used to make someone's case, they need to use the same math units.
Your posts show that you're not only paranoid and some kind of stalker, you also don't understand math concepts.
KD - your above statement is going to be really confusing when Apple brings out the iPhone Math this year.
Perfect example is the iPad, of which the majority of sales are outright purchases. This in a sea of dirt cheap tablets from Android vendors.
High end phones that compete with the iPhone are also expensive and people will have no qualms about spending an extra $100 for the real deal instead of some cheap knock off.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta
Activations are interesting because it is hard to define what they mean. On the one hand, iPhones are more expensive than many Android phones, have greater customer satisfaction and reliability, and have the ability for the OS to be upgraded (which is actually a rarity in the Android world) so one might expect that the average iPhone would be passed down to a second or third user and therefore get activated several times in its life. In that case, the activation share for iPhones would be greater than the sales share. OTOH, Android phones seem to be used more by geeks and people who like to fiddle with their phones and if they need to reset the phone, it might be more likely for the number of activations to be higher. The result would be that Android's activation share might exceed the market share. Or both could be occurring with one factor being more important for one carrier and the other factor being more important for a different carrier. The difference between your activation figures and this article's sales figures suggests that this might be the case. No matter how you slice it, interpreting the meaning of activation numbers is more difficult than interpreting most of the other figures.
That was a well-reasoned reply and pretty accurately represented IMO. The one spot you probably erred is guessing that resetting an Android phone results in another activation. Google addressed that directly and said it does not add to their activation numbers. Pretty sure I linked that for you several months ago, but perhaps you forgot or simply overlooked it.
That doesn't negate my answer.
First, Google's answer was ambiguous.
Second, Google has a history of presenting misleading results.
Third, these numbers are not from Google, and we don't know how they were determined or whether the activation figures presented here use the same or different methodology.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling
If my purpose was to address the numbers in the title report, then I would've done so.
My post simply pointed out that, no matter what reports are used to make someone's case, they need to use the same math units.
Your posts show that you're not only paranoid and some kind of stalker, you also don't understand math concepts.
The purpose of your post, like all your other posts, was to sow FUD. Your posts show that you think you are a lot more clever than you are.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta
The fundamental issue is that there's no one source of information that's going to tell you how each platform is doing. In fact, that even begs the question - how are they doing with respect to WHAT? Sales? Profits? Installed base? Market share?
The entire picture comes from looking at all the different data available and trying to understand the interrelationships in order to get a true representation.
In terms of sales, the data presented here is one example of sales data - but covers US only and may or may not be representative of the population as a whole. ...
And, these numbers agree with the other numbers we've seen regarding carrier sales and activations in the US. It does only cover the US, but these and other numbers show that iPhone is outselling Android here, that significant numbers are abandoning Android for iOS, and, combined with usage stats, supports the notion that the bulk of Android activations reported by Google (assuming they are real numbers) are cheap "features phones" that carry no benefit for Google and the Android ecosystem.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta
Activations are interesting because it is hard to define what they mean. On the one hand, iPhones are more expensive than many Android phones, have greater customer satisfaction and reliability, and have the ability for the OS to be upgraded (which is actually a rarity in the Android world) so one might expect that the average iPhone would be passed down to a second or third user and therefore get activated several times in its life. In that case, the activation share for iPhones would be greater than the sales share.
Very well said, and quite true. iPhone upgrade loyalty does lead to more re-activations of used iPhones. I have a link giving percentages that I'll try to find for you.
As for other kinds of (re)activations, most resets don't require one. We'd need to figure out how many come from iOS jailbreaks and Android ROM changes.
As you said, they're not the best math unit to compare with.
That's why it makes more sense to simply use sales numbers, such as the ones that are the actual topic of this article.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling
... That's why it makes more sense to simply use sales numbers, such as the ones that are the actual topic of this article.
And yet, a moment ago, you were urging us to bear in mind activation numbers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse
And yet, a moment ago, you were urging us to bear in mind activation numbers.
Perhaps if you took the time to follow the thread instead of jumping into the middle, it would be clearer to you.
1) The article is about sales figures.
2) Someone else commented that the sale figures looked bogus because they didn't match activation figures.
3) I helpfully pointed out that that's because they're counting two totally different things.
4) Therefore, people would be better off sticking to using the original figures in (1) if they're debating sales.
Take off your tinfoil hat. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling
Perhaps if you took the time to follow the thread instead of jumping into the middle, it would be clearer to you.
1) The article is about sales figures.
2) Someone else commented that the sale figures looked bogus because they didn't match activation figures.
3) I helpfully pointed out that that's because they're counting two totally different things.
4) Therefore, people would be better off sticking to using the original figures in (1) if they're debating sales.
Except that's rewriting history. You didn't state point 4 until much later.
Impossible. Not with this many Google apologists working overtime in Apple forums.
I can't help wondering what Steve Jobs would have thought of a cheap plastic Apple phone. Would such a phone pass his 'keys in pocket' test? Won't it drag down the perceived quality of the Apple brand?
all these surveys we see - even when legit - are going to have a significant margin of error because the situation is murky and hard data is only partially available. suffice to say iPhone is by far the most popular single smartphone, and overall has about 1/2 of the US market. clearly the iOS ecosystem is firmly established here, which propels sales of other Apple products too.
what does jump out of this survey is (1) RIM is near death in the US, and (2) new Windows Phones models are a flop. both their numbers are too small to pretend otherwise.
RIM is stronger overseas. but unlike Nokia, it can't survive as it is today without a credible US presence. if the new BB models don't succeed with about 5% of the 2013 US market, RIM will be forced into a sale, probably to some Asian OEM.
and Windows Phone ... by the same standard, if the new W8 Phone models can't gain about 5% of the US market this year they will become the new MS "hobby." but since MS won't give up (as long as Ballmer is in charge), it will then finally just take over Nokia outright to push them even harder next year.
i do expect Apple to fill out its product line and launch an iPhone mini this year - basically a souped-up iPod touch (which is pretty much an iPhone 4S inside), but as light and thin as technically possible. that would be a much stronger product in the marketplace than discounted past years' models, and even more attractive to overseas markets. yes, they will keep the same profit margin, don't worry about that ....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta
Activations are interesting because it is hard to define what they mean. On the one hand, iPhones are more expensive than many Android phones, have greater customer satisfaction and reliability, and have the ability for the OS to be upgraded (which is actually a rarity in the Android world) so one might expect that the average iPhone would be passed down to a second or third user and therefore get activated several times in its life. In that case, the activation share for iPhones would be greater than the sales share. OTOH, Android phones seem to be used more by geeks and people who like to fiddle with their phones and if they need to reset the phone, it might be more likely for the number of activations to be higher. The result would be that Android's activation share might exceed the market share. Or both could be occurring with one factor being more important for one carrier and the other factor being more important for a different carrier. The difference between your activation figures and this article's sales figures suggests that this might be the case. No matter how you slice it, interpreting the meaning of activation numbers is more difficult than interpreting most of the other figures.
That was a well-reasoned reply and pretty accurately represented IMO. The one spot you probably erred is guessing that resetting an Android phone results in another activation. Google addressed that directly and said it does not add to their activation numbers. Pretty sure I linked that for you several months ago, but perhaps you forgot or simply overlooked it.
Activations represent an ambiguous number. In the US market most phones are purchased on contract so the phone number stays the same over the course of any reactivations, however in the developing world, many smartphones especially Android, are reactivated with different phone numbers by the same user due to the fact that often they are being used with pay as you go SIMs and people switch between carriers a lot. Of course the same could be said for iPhones in the US as they are reactivated with new SIMs as they become resold or handed down devices. Those are reactivations too and also contribute to the web usage disparity as new iPhone users come online with used devices.
For Android not to grow in market percentage is extremely notable unto itself.