After 'astonishingly' poor quarter, Mac sales predicted to rebound

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  • Reply 81 of 119
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by fastasleep View Post


     


    Who cares? They're going to sell very few of these things. It's not like we haven't seen the results of meticulous copying of Apple's hardware already from other parties, so why does it matter if Google does it too?


     


     


    A lot of Google's software is beautifully designed. Some of it is terrible. Same applies to Apple really. Pretty sure we could find examples on both ends of the spectrum being produced by both camps. Revolution, I dunno about that. :) I'm curious to see what Apple has coming up this year for iOS (and OS X, and hopefully iWork). Let's not forget that Forstall is out now, and that may affect iOS and their supporting app design quite a bit (though who can say for sure at this point?). I suspect Jony Ive has some thoughts...


     


     


    By making them the most profitable tech company in the world? For starters.


     


     


    With Samsung, what do you expect them to do? Outspend them on advertising? Google Glass is hardly a product at this point, it's a tech demo. You think they're going to sell millions of those and their overpriced browserbook? Announcing non-products far in advance of availability gains what exactly? Look at the Nexus Q. Oh wait, you can't.


     


    Updates to existing successful products are a no-brainer; of course those are coming. Plastic phones for China is a rumor at this point. What on earth are you expecting them to do RIGHT NOW — announce something they are secretly working on in their lab? Give a prototype of some proof-of-concept device to some blogger to write about? Release their 5 year roadmap so competitors know exactly what to expect? So you can get excited? 


     


     


    You do realize that you previously said this:


     


     


    So, which is it?


     


     


    I'm not convinced you could do better.



    All I'm saying is we've gone nearly 6 months now with a lot of negative sentiment and I don't see Apple really doing anything to try and change that. I'll go back to a quote Jony Ive gave Walter Isaacson for his Steve Jobs book.  It was in reference to the perception that Steve was the only ideas guy at Apple.  Ive said: “That makes us vulnerable as a company".  Well that perception is alive and well out there isn't it?


     


    I think a lot of the perceptions of the company right now are flat out wrong but they're out there and often times perception can become reality.  Look at the stock - down 36% over the last 6 months, 21% over the last 12 months.  All the while releasing great products, raking in record profits and amassing a humongous cash pile. FUD and D&G helps drive the stock down which in turn creates more FUD and D&G which in turn keeps driving the stock down.  It's a vicious cycle.


     


    I'm not saying I have the answer or could do better but when perception is so far away from reality and is helping to drive the stock down to a 52 week low (while the overall market is at or near record highs) doesn't management have a responsibility to try and turn that perception around?  Obviously it's not just about pushing out product as they updated nearly all of their product line in the second half of the year and yet the stock dropped 36%.  Or do we say the stock was in a bubble and had to burst (even though stocks like Google, Amazon and Netflix show no signs of bursting)?

  • Reply 82 of 119
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member


    Originally Posted by zBernie View Post

    I've discussed the new iMac in numerous Mac forums, and many[who?][citation needed] think the new iMac is dysfunctional. People[who?][citation needed] are astonished to find that this "all in one" has no optical drive, and feel that it was removed prematurely[citation needed], for the sake of pushing consumers towards purchasing more content from apple. The argument that the optical drive is antiquated is ludicrous[citation needed].


    And the SD card reader is located on the back? Really? Now that's convenient.[disputed] And no USB ports in a convenient[disputed]location either?  That's ridiculous[disputed]. I have two USB extension cables running from the back of my iMac, just so I can have quick access to a USB port. Most people[who?][citation needed]I've conversed with don't give a crap about how thin the new iMac is -- It still looks the same from the front.



     


    *cough*






    Give me 1" iMac with an optical drive and some conveniently placed ports, and then I'll consider purchasing one.



     


    Or you could accept that you're just never going to buy an iMac again based on ludicrous requirements and an unwillingness to move forward.





    Originally Posted by ecs View Post

    Problem is that Apple isn't neglecting 20% of the desktop market by doing this, but 80% of the desktop market.



    Current Mac desktops are targeted to users who don't need a desktop.


     


    So that's basically nonsense right there.






    No wonder Apple is in the "post desktop" era.



     


    No, post-PC. Huge difference.





    Originally Posted by Ghangstalked View Post

    Less than 16 is basically obsolete out the door.


     


    This isn't true, either.





    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

    All I'm saying is we've gone nearly 6 months now with a lot of negative sentiment and I don't see Apple really doing anything to try and change that.


     


    Right, they never have at any point in their history, and they don't have to. The only thing that they need to do is perform well enough to prove these people are liars. Same thing they did when they were actually in any sort of trouble back in '96.






    …often times perception can become reality.



     


    $130 billion dollars is just going to magically disappear because people think they're bankrupt?


     




    Look at the stock - down 36% over the last 6 months, 21% over the last 12 months.  All the while releasing great products, raking in record profits and amassing a humongous cash pile. FUD and D&G helps drive the stock down which in turn creates more FUD and D&G which in turn keeps driving the stock down.  It's a vicious cycle.



     


    You're missing the big point here: the stock is meaningless. This isn't. This is tangible, and it's proof that everything else being said is sheer crap.





    Or do we say the stock was in a bubble and had to burst (even though stocks like Google, Amazon and Netflix show no signs of bursting)?



     


    On the contrary, one could say that since Apple "burst", those companies crash that much harder. 

  • Reply 83 of 119
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    Right, they never have at any point in their history, and they don't have to. The only thing that they need to do is perform well enough to prove these people are liars. Same thing they did when they were actually in any sort of trouble back in '96.


     


    $130 billion dollars is just going to magically disappear because people think they're bankrupt?


     


    I'm talking about the perception that they don't innovate anymore, that the magic is gone now that Steve is gone. That they need to ape Samsung's business model of making stuff in every conceivable size and price point to survive.  That the iPad is threatened by Android and Windows OEM's pushing out cheap no margin hardware.  That Google is on par with Apple in terms of hardware design (gee not hard to do when you have the best to copy from) yet Apple isn't even close to matching Google in what they do best (services).  That everyone now wants a 5" phone and 6" phablet with 1080p displays, widgets and "real multitasking" and Apple is falling behind if they don't cater to that.  And that's just the tip of the iceberg.


     


    You're missing the big point here: the stock is meaningless. This isn't. This is tangible, and it's proof that everything else being said is sheer crap.


     


    The stock isn't meaningless.  Especially if it's used to attract and retain talent.  Also a falling stock price just drives people to spew more crap.


     


    On the contrary, one could say that since Apple "burst", those companies crash that much harder. 


     


    I guess we'll see if that happens.  Google is up 14% year-to-date with Wall Street analysts upping price targets.  Amazon is up 6%, Netflix up 104%.  Apple down 19%.  Not saying any of it makes sense but it doesn't have to does it?


  • Reply 84 of 119
    ecsecs Posts: 307member
    I feel it's useless to try to talk to Apple drones^H^H^H^H^H^H ifans. If iOS lacks a system file manager, they believe that's the best. If tomorrow Apple release a "Files" app for managing files, they'll adore Apple. When in the first days of iOS, we Mac users were worried about the Apple commitment to the Mac, ifans repeated and repeated there was no menace to the Mac. Now ifans are happy saying the Mac market doesn't matter.

    If Apple releases an Android device tomorrow, ifans will love it.

    Drones, just drones.

    We, Mac users, are not drones, nor ifans. We're Mac users, Mac fans, and proud of it. And we use our Macs for their real purpose: photo, media, office, development, CAD, and all sectors the Mac was designed for.
  • Reply 85 of 119
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


     


    i dunno, maybe having the most profitable (unadjusted for inflation) year in corporate history. I'm sure Tim Cook et al. are crying in Apple's $140 billion cash/investments.


     


    Well if I was an employee in an stock purchase program not sure I'd be to happy. Obviously th stock decline is bothering Tim Cook as he said as much at the shareholders meeting.  And isn't Silicon Valley and the tech industry known for using stock options to attract and retain top talent?  Right or wrong Wall Street isn't confident Apple will be able to continue these record profits.  And they look at that huge cash pile wondering what the hell Apple is planning to do with it.  


     


    Rumors have flown since Jobs came back. You can't stop it. If you pre-announce products, WS won't stop creating rumors. Hows' that $12B serving Sammy. The 4S outsold/shipped the GS3. The iphone is #1 and #2. Apple has 70% of the mobile profits. Where's the ROI on Sammy's advertising.


     


    I'm not suggeting Apple should pre-announce things but what is doubling down on secrecy in Cupertino doing for them?  Was there anything last year that really surprised you?  I guess the new iPods didn't leak but just about everything else did.


     


    There is nothing Apple can do. WS will still make up negative stories. Apple could release financials on a daily period but WS will spin them negative. They spun the record 4th qtr numbers negatively.


     


    I don't agree that there's nothing they can do.  I don't know who's responsible for their ads lately but they're not very good IMO.  And they have a huge opportunity here as the ads coming out of Microsoft and Samsung are just dreadful.  And I think Tim Cook is probably not the right guy to be the only mouthpiece for the company (outside of Oppenheimer on investor calls).  Listening to him speak at keynotes can sometimes be cringe worthy.  Tim might be the perfect guy to run the company but I don't think he's its best spokesperson.  IMO Apple should let Schiller and Ive be the face of the company.


  • Reply 86 of 119
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ecs View Post



    I feel it's useless to try to talk to Apple drones^H^H^H^H^H^H ifans. If iOS lacks a system file manager, they believe that's the best. If tomorrow Apple release a "Files" app for managing files, they'll adore Apple. When in the first days of iOS, we Mac users were worried about the Apple commitment to the Mac, ifans repeated and repeated there was no menace to the Mac. Now ifans are happy saying the Mac market doesn't matter.



    If Apple releases an Android device tomorrow, ifans will love it.



    Drones, just drones.



    We, Mac users, are not drones, nor ifans. We're Mac users, Mac fans, and proud of it. And we use our Macs for their real purpose: photo, media, office, development, CAD, and all sectors the Mac was designed for.


    We? You mean Me and I, right?

  • Reply 87 of 119
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 13,002member
    jungmark wrote: »
    I have no doubts there are a few but eca said it "would sell in larger amounts than the whole desktop line in this moment."

    Who is switching?

    People like these.

    http://www.newrepublic.com/article/112528/apple-blogs-mac-fanatics-disillusioned-over-company-direction

    http://mergy.org/2012/12/irecognition-i-am-no-longer-apples-target-market/

    http://macperformanceguide.com/AppleCoreRot-intro.html
  • Reply 88 of 119
    joogabahjoogabah Posts: 139member
    zoffdino wrote: »
    Have you stopped crying wolf for a moment and think why it’s been going down so spectacularly in the past 5 months? I don’t disagree that short sellers and hedgies play a (major?) role in it, but how can they do it so far and for so long? It’s because Tim Cook and the board doesn’t care one bit about shareholders. All he keeps saying is “we take a long view”,  “we care more about innovation”. None of these is wrong, but he isn’t feeling or sharing the pain of the shareholder when the stock keeps dropping and dropping. He has tools to fight against it: a PR to announce X millions iPhones sold, a denial of rumors, dividend hikes, buyback boosts, …. And yet he chose to do nothing.


    It’s like you have a gangster brother but the bullies know you aren’t telling him nothing. Do you think they will stop stealing your lunch money or giving you wedgies? They will bully you until you’re on life support. Your friends will be too scared to play with you now.

    Last week there was news of Foxconn hiring freeze that was automatically translated to Apple’s production cut. In fact it was due to better than expected retention rate (note how no one credited Apple with improving the working conditions at Foxconn). Just today, there’s rumor of inventory buildup in Europe because iPhone 5 isn’t selling--it can be due to a myriad of things, including that Apple has solved iPhone 5 production problems and start to build channel inventory toward their 4 - 6 weeks target. Every Apple story has been twisted to shine negative light on the company, and management refused to clarify it. Tim Cook could have simply call his broker and order a $1B share buyback. Announce it at 3pm, and slap the bears in the face. That would convince me that he means serious business.

    See? Apple is nothing to these people but a revenue stream. Why they would be attracted to an Apple enthusiast site and annoy others with arguments that support predatory actions against Apple is beyond me.

    Capitalism is over, if you want it.
  • Reply 89 of 119
    zberniezbernie Posts: 37member


    I don't know what planet you are from, but here on Earth, every desktop computer I've ever seen has conveniently placed SD and USB ports.  Ludicrous requirements?

  • Reply 90 of 119
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member


    Originally Posted by zBernie View Post

    I don't know what planet you are from, but here on Earth, every desktop computer I've ever seen has conveniently placed SD and USB ports.  Ludicrous requirements?


     


    You've ignored the only relevant portion of that reply, I see.


     


    The ports aren't inconvenient, anyway.

  • Reply 91 of 119
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,926member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

    Well if I was an employee in an stock purchase program not sure I'd be to happy. Obviously th stock decline is bothering Tim Cook as he said as much at the shareholders meeting.  And isn't Silicon Valley and the tech industry known for using stock options to attract and retain top talent?  Right or wrong Wall Street isn't confident Apple will be able to continue these record profits.  And they look at that huge cash pile wondering what the hell Apple is planning to do with it. 

     


     


    employees don't pay for options so they get them free. Sure they would love $700/share but $400/share is nothing to sneeze at.


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View PostI'm talking about the perception that they don't innovate anymore, that the magic is gone now that Steve is gone. That they need to ape Samsung's business model of making stuff in every conceivable size and price point to survive.  That the iPad is threatened by Android and Windows OEM's pushing out cheap no margin hardware.  That Google is on par with Apple in terms of hardware design (gee not hard to do when you have the best to copy from) yet Apple isn't even close to matching Google in what they do best (services).  That everyone now wants a 5" phone and 6" phablet with 1080p displays, widgets and "real multitasking" and Apple is falling behind if they don't cater to that.  And that's just the tip of the iceberg.


     


    Apple has 70% of the mobile profits with the 3 iphones models they are selling While I do see a larger iphone as a complement, I don't think using the shotgun approach has worked. If everyone wanted a 5/6" phablet, the iphone wouldn't be #1 and #2, would it.

  • Reply 92 of 119
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


     


    employees don't pay for options so they get them free. Sure they would love $700/share but $400/share is nothing to sneeze at.


     


     


    Apple has 70% of the mobile profits with the 3 iphones models they are selling While I do see a larger iphone as a complement, I don't think using the shotgun approach has worked. If everyone wanted a 5/6" phablet, the iphone wouldn't be #1 and #2, would it.



    Again the narrative doesn't have to be factual to be peddled and lapped up by Wall Street and the tech press.

  • Reply 93 of 119
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,926member
    rogifan wrote: »
    Again the narrative doesn't have to be factual to be peddled and lapped up by Wall Street and the tech press.

    Exactly. WS will spin negatively regardless if Apple streams it's internal meetings to the Internet.
  • Reply 94 of 119
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    jungmark wrote: »
    Exactly. WS will spin negatively regardless if Apple streams it's internal meetings to the Internet.

    This is correct.

    Rogifan, if you walk by a yard with a bunch of chihuahuas behind the fence and they start yapping at you, do you stop and argue with them and yell at them to shut up?

    No, you don't, because you know they're going to start yapping worse if you do. You lose all dignity as a human if you yell at them besides.

    Apple is surrounded by a pack of nervous, shivering chihuahuas. It cannot stoop to argue with them. THAT would be the worse disaster.

    And I've never seen anything Tim Cook do on stage that is cringeworthy. Like Jobs said, paraphrasing here, he is like a clock ticking in a thunderstorm. Absolute mastery is his vibe. Yes he has to try to convey emotion, but that I find reassuring, because it's sincere. Finally, don't ask the artist Ive to be in a PR role. That would be unfair.
  • Reply 95 of 119
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post



    And I've never seen anything Tim Cook do on stage that is cringeworthy. Like Jobs said, paraphrasing here, he is like a clock ticking in a thunderstorm. Absolute mastery is his vibe. Yes he has to try to convey emotion, but that I find reassuring, because it's sincere. Finally, don't ask the artist Ive to be in a PR role. That would be unfair.


    For me sometimes it seems like Cook almost tries to hard.  His cadence seems a bit off. My suggestion with Ive is because he seems to be universally liked.  I mean he did a 5 minute segment on a British children's TV show and it's all over the web and all over my twitter feed.  It seems like people eat up anything they get from him,  Plus with his new role overseeing both hardware and software design he seems to be the one in a role that most closely resembles what Steve's role was.  I get he doesn't want to be on stage doing keynotes, but I think there are other ways he could be used.  Apple seems to have no problem giving the UK media access to him.  How about they do the same over here?

  • Reply 96 of 119
    fastasleepfastasleep Posts: 6,447member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by zBernie View Post


    Of course you can buy an external drive, and hang one more ugly piece of equipment from you iMac, but you shouldn't have to.



     


    You're part of a rapidly shrinking minority, and Apple is, as usual, ahead of the curve. Why not velcro a DVD-R drive to the back of the machine, since you're never looking back there anyway? Functionally it would be the same, and out of view.

  • Reply 97 of 119
    fastasleepfastasleep Posts: 6,447member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


    I'm not saying I have the answer or could do better but when perception is so far away from reality and is helping to drive the stock down to a 52 week low (while the overall market is at or near record highs) doesn't management have a responsibility to try and turn that perception around?  Obviously it's not just about pushing out product as they updated nearly all of their product line in the second half of the year and yet the stock dropped 36%.  Or do we say the stock was in a bubble and had to burst (even though stocks like Google, Amazon and Netflix show no signs of bursting)?



     


    They are doing something about it, by focusing on releasing insanely great products. Or whatever their current mantra is. They can't do anything beyond that to make the stock go up, and you haven't provided any guidance as to what that might be, beyond them waving their hands in the air and saying "Hey look at us, we're as good as Steve!"  The market wants them to put up or shut up, and that's what they're doing. Breaking sales and profit records. The stock is down because growth slowed. Whether that's a harbinger of things to come remains to be seen. They could come out with something completely new this year, or two years from now, that sends it in the opposite direction. Give them some freaking time, for chrissakes.

  • Reply 98 of 119
    fastasleepfastasleep Posts: 6,447member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

    I'm talking about the perception that they don't innovate anymore, that the magic is gone now that Steve is gone. That they need to ape Samsung's business model of making stuff in every conceivable size and price point to survive.  That the iPad is threatened by Android and Windows OEM's pushing out cheap no margin hardware.  That Google is on par with Apple in terms of hardware design (gee not hard to do when you have the best to copy from) yet Apple isn't even close to matching Google in what they do best (services).  That everyone now wants a 5" phone and 6" phablet with 1080p displays, widgets and "real multitasking" and Apple is falling behind if they don't cater to that.  And that's just the tip of the iceberg.


     


    But the people who know better know that this is all largely bullshit. I don't believe any of this, do you?

  • Reply 99 of 119
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Why are we using red text in thread?
  • Reply 100 of 119
    fastasleepfastasleep Posts: 6,447member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


    For me sometimes it seems like Cook almost tries to hard. 



    You want to see trying too hard? Check out Qualcomm's keynote from CES, that was cringeworthy.



     


    Jobs was a master at presentations, but he's not here anymore. I think Cook does a fine job, and he *does* share the stage with Schiller and others.

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