That's nice. How about announcing some of those products so we can share in your optimism because we're kind of tired of watching our stock holdings yoyo on a daily basis, or otherwise just keep quiet until you actually have something to talk about?
Apple could announce a cure for cancer and WS would say "still not good enough. Not enough cancer patients to be profitable"
Cook calls everything they release "great' and "perfect" even when the newest items is modifying a prior product that was also "perfect." Hey, it's great to be optimistic, but if everything is always "great" then great becomes the new average. Not saying they wont continue to be a cash cow, but EPS contraction will start next quarter and continue unless they come up with a new, high margin product that would have mass appeal. So lets get the dividend up to 3.5% and at least make the wait more enjoyable.
Apple's "great" is still great. EPS would rise as they probably sold more Macs, iDevices this year over last and did not succumb to the cheap crap market share filler.
Good...let them reduce their targets. Then when Apple kills those more sensible targets, the stock will rise again.
I've said it a million times before, but one of the most profitable companies on the planet, #2 in market cap, no debt, tons of cash, did amazingly well during the recession, but the stock loses tons of value from the peak. Insanity.
And in the above chart (and not that it contributes much revenue), but where's the MacPro? I thought we were seeing that in 2013.
That's nice. How about announcing some of those products so we can share in your optimism because we're kind of tired of watching our stock holdings yoyo on a daily basis, or otherwise just keep quiet until you actually have something to talk about?
What a shitty post. Out of all the technology companies out there, and probably every major company in the world, Apple is the ONLY ONE that keeps quiet about future products, never hypes anything up, and only announces something when they're ready to show it off in fully and release it shortly. When was the last time Apple publically made specific statements about future products? When was the last time they had a teaser about anything? Tim Cook reassuring investors, when specifically asked, that he's "confident" about their future pipeline does not count as talking about future products.
Also, Apple doesn't give a shit about the yoyo-ing of the stock. They will announce and release those products when those products are READY, not prematurely as a desperate attempt to raise the stock a bit. You want them to announce that they will show off an iWatch in 6 months, so that competitors can do their best to rip it off before then, and so that the hype builds to insane levels, only to dissapoint? Even after Jobs' death, Apple's secretiveness has not changed. I'm glad people like you aren't in charge of Apple, panicking and willing to time announcements based on stock price, as you'd have driven the company into the ground a long time ago. The reason Apple has been successful is that they don't plan quarter to quarter, they ignore that noise, and make decisions based on the the longhaul. Your short-sighted thinking is what poisons companies and eventually brings them down.
Interesting timetable rumour. Don't think 1/4 are right. MOST importantly, it misses out on OS release. Does this mean we are stuck with ML till next year!?
You know when you guys make these charts, you might want to include this thing called "the date."
Only some stock weenie actually knows when "Q2" ends and "Q4" begins. Why not use those "Month" things on the chart so we can actually know what your prediction is?
Calendar Apple Fiscal Months
Q1 Q2 Jan Feb March
Q2 Q3 Apr May June
Q3 Q4 July Aug Sept
Q4 Q1 (of following year) Oct Nov Dec
The Qs refer to quarters, divide the year by 4 and you have 4 separate quarters.
Most analysts speak in terms of the calendar quarters. Apple's Fiscal year starts October 1. So Apple's own Q1 coincides with the calendar Q4.
In calendar quarters, Q2 ends June 30th, Q4 begins on October 1st. Companies usually report their earnings several weeks after a given quarter ends. So Apple will release their fiscal Q1 results (calendar Q4) toward the end of January, reporting on their performance during the months of October, November, and December.
Mark my words. Investors whose horizons are 3 - 5 years out -- and not that of noise-traders and hedge funds -- will look back and wonder why they did not double up on AAPL at this price.
Nope, because by that time the financial fantasy world that the US Government and economy have been living in will have collapsed and the sales of expensive goods like Apple's products will take a major tumble.
-kpluck
That's what people like you hoped for during the worst recession we've seen (2008-10) since the Great Depression, and guess what happened to Apple's volumes, pricing, EBIT, profits, and stock price during that period?
Check it out, and come back and let us know, will ya?
And where's the MacPro system? That should be announced either later this month or next quarter. There's 3 years of pent up demand for that product. While it's not a HUGE amount of money like the iPhone, it should at least help matters with regards to June quarter sales if it gets announced this month, if they delay it until next quarter, then it will improve the Sept quarter numbers.
Isn't there a burgeoning ProHackintosh industry, if there is 3 years of pent up demand?
That's what people like you hoped for during the worst recession we've seen (2008-10) since the Great Depression, and guess what happened to Apple's volumes, pricing, EBIT, profits, and stock price during that period?
Check it out, and come back and let us know, will ya?
The pessismistic view of this is that this is a sign that we haven't seen the REAL depression yet. I haven't seen too many people in the street selling apples either.
Mark my words. Investors whose horizons are 3 - 5 years out -- and not that of noise-traders and hedge funds -- will look back and wonder why they did not double up on AAPL at this price.
When do you think Apple will surpass its all-time high, and by what percentage?
There's nothing in known economic theory that enables anyone to tell you 'what' and 'when' at the same time.
If someone does, they're flatly lying. And if people believe them, that's their problem.
Could I say that Apple is undervalued with near-certainty? Yes. But could I tell you that the price will revert to fundamentals next week, next month, next year, next three years? No. But could I reasonably surmise that it will happen over some reasonable horizon, to the point that I will put my money where my mouth is? Yes.
There's nothing in known economic theory that enables anyone to tell you 'what' and 'when' at the same time.
If someone does, they're flatly lying. And if people believe them, that's their problem.
Could I say that Apple is undervalued with near-certainty? Yes. But could I tell you that the price will revert to fundamentals next week, next month, next year, next three years? No. But could I reasonably surmise that it will happen over some reasonable horizon, to the point that I will put my money where my mouth is? Yes.
As Keynes did not say:
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
Sure, that's possible. But it becomes a serious problem only if you're poorly diversified. Then you'd deserve it too.
That said, even if poorly diversified, the probability that the market's irrationality will outlive your solvency is inversely proportional to your horizon.
A 3 - 5 year horizon is something that I'd be quite comfortable with, in placing bets, since most marginal investors (that constitute much of the 'market' trades) can't/don't last that long.
There's nothing in known economic theory that enables anyone to tell you 'what' and 'when' at the same time.
If someone does, they're flatly lying. And if people believe them, that's their problem.
Could I say that Apple is undervalued with near-certainty? Yes. But could I tell you that the price will revert to fundamentals next week, next month, next year, next three years? No. But could I reasonably surmise that it will happen over some reasonable horizon, to the point that I will put my money where my mouth is? Yes.
I love logical, pragmatic posts like this one. We need more of them.
No one expected this one either, other than a few nut cases.
You really need to read more, think more, and knee-jerk less.
There were dozens and dozens of pretty smart people shouting from the rooftops about inflated housing, structured finance, derivatives, and financial markets in 2007/08. Names I can offhand think of include Shiller, Krugman, Buffett, Roubini, Taleb..... not to mention many financial services firms (including even some hedge funds that you seem to like a lot).
"You know when you guys make these charts, you might want to include this thing called "the date." Only some stock weenie actually knows when "Q2" ends and "Q4" begins. Why not use those "Month" things on the chart so we can actually know what your prediction is?"
Um, let's see . . . If you divide a 12 month calendar into quarters, how many months would each quarter have? - Stock Weenie : )
Posts that begin with "Um" are usually full of it.
FYI, Apple’s fiscal year 2013 runs from September 30, 2012 through September 28, 2013.
You really need to read more, think more, and knee-jerk less.
There were dozens and dozens of pretty smart people shouting from the rooftops about inflated housing, structured finance, derivatives, and financial markets in 2007/08. Names I can offhand think of include Shiller, Krugman, Buffett, Roubini, Taleb..... not to mention many financial services firms (including even some hedge funds that you seem to like a lot).
The average hedge fund lost 20% in 2008 (and they did as well as they did because they went to cash after the market took the first the first leg down, and stayed there pretty much for three years, which explains why hedge funds underperformed the market in recent years), the number of hedge funds which MADE money was quite small, so this was certainly not a consensus view.
Otherwise, I read and think plenty, thanks for your concern.
Comments
Apple could announce a cure for cancer and WS would say "still not good enough. Not enough cancer patients to be profitable"
Apple's "great" is still great. EPS would rise as they probably sold more Macs, iDevices this year over last and did not succumb to the cheap crap market share filler.
I've said it a million times before, but one of the most profitable companies on the planet, #2 in market cap, no debt, tons of cash, did amazingly well during the recession, but the stock loses tons of value from the peak. Insanity.
And in the above chart (and not that it contributes much revenue), but where's the MacPro? I thought we were seeing that in 2013.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907
That's nice. How about announcing some of those products so we can share in your optimism because we're kind of tired of watching our stock holdings yoyo on a daily basis, or otherwise just keep quiet until you actually have something to talk about?
What a shitty post. Out of all the technology companies out there, and probably every major company in the world, Apple is the ONLY ONE that keeps quiet about future products, never hypes anything up, and only announces something when they're ready to show it off in fully and release it shortly. When was the last time Apple publically made specific statements about future products? When was the last time they had a teaser about anything? Tim Cook reassuring investors, when specifically asked, that he's "confident" about their future pipeline does not count as talking about future products.
Also, Apple doesn't give a shit about the yoyo-ing of the stock. They will announce and release those products when those products are READY, not prematurely as a desperate attempt to raise the stock a bit. You want them to announce that they will show off an iWatch in 6 months, so that competitors can do their best to rip it off before then, and so that the hype builds to insane levels, only to dissapoint? Even after Jobs' death, Apple's secretiveness has not changed. I'm glad people like you aren't in charge of Apple, panicking and willing to time announcements based on stock price, as you'd have driven the company into the ground a long time ago. The reason Apple has been successful is that they don't plan quarter to quarter, they ignore that noise, and make decisions based on the the longhaul. Your short-sighted thinking is what poisons companies and eventually brings them down.
deleted
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee
You know when you guys make these charts, you might want to include this thing called "the date."
Only some stock weenie actually knows when "Q2" ends and "Q4" begins. Why not use those "Month" things on the chart so we can actually know what your prediction is?
Calendar Apple Fiscal Months
Q1 Q2 Jan Feb March
Q2 Q3 Apr May June
Q3 Q4 July Aug Sept
Q4 Q1 (of following year) Oct Nov Dec
The Qs refer to quarters, divide the year by 4 and you have 4 separate quarters.
Most analysts speak in terms of the calendar quarters. Apple's Fiscal year starts October 1. So Apple's own Q1 coincides with the calendar Q4.
In calendar quarters, Q2 ends June 30th, Q4 begins on October 1st. Companies usually report their earnings several weeks after a given quarter ends. So Apple will release their fiscal Q1 results (calendar Q4) toward the end of January, reporting on their performance during the months of October, November, and December.
-Stock weenie
Quote:
Originally Posted by kpluck
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Mark my words. Investors whose horizons are 3 - 5 years out -- and not that of noise-traders and hedge funds -- will look back and wonder why they did not double up on AAPL at this price.
Nope, because by that time the financial fantasy world that the US Government and economy have been living in will have collapsed and the sales of expensive goods like Apple's products will take a major tumble.
-kpluck
That's what people like you hoped for during the worst recession we've seen (2008-10) since the Great Depression, and guess what happened to Apple's volumes, pricing, EBIT, profits, and stock price during that period?
Check it out, and come back and let us know, will ya?
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank
And where's the MacPro system? That should be announced either later this month or next quarter. There's 3 years of pent up demand for that product. While it's not a HUGE amount of money like the iPhone, it should at least help matters with regards to June quarter sales if it gets announced this month, if they delay it until next quarter, then it will improve the Sept quarter numbers.
Isn't there a burgeoning ProHackintosh industry, if there is 3 years of pent up demand?
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
That's what people like you hoped for during the worst recession we've seen (2008-10) since the Great Depression, and guess what happened to Apple's volumes, pricing, EBIT, profits, and stock price during that period?
Check it out, and come back and let us know, will ya?
The pessismistic view of this is that this is a sign that we haven't seen the REAL depression yet. I haven't seen too many people in the street selling apples either.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Mark my words. Investors whose horizons are 3 - 5 years out -- and not that of noise-traders and hedge funds -- will look back and wonder why they did not double up on AAPL at this price.
When do you think Apple will surpass its all-time high, and by what percentage?
There's nothing in known economic theory that enables anyone to tell you 'what' and 'when' at the same time.
If someone does, they're flatly lying. And if people believe them, that's their problem.
Could I say that Apple is undervalued with near-certainty? Yes. But could I tell you that the price will revert to fundamentals next week, next month, next year, next three years? No. But could I reasonably surmise that it will happen over some reasonable horizon, to the point that I will put my money where my mouth is? Yes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv
The pessismistic view of this is that this is a sign that we haven't seen the REAL depression yet.
Other than for a few nut cases, no one expects that!
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Other than for a few nut cases, no one expects that!
No one expected this one either, other than a few nut cases.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
There's nothing in known economic theory that enables anyone to tell you 'what' and 'when' at the same time.
If someone does, they're flatly lying. And if people believe them, that's their problem.
Could I say that Apple is undervalued with near-certainty? Yes. But could I tell you that the price will revert to fundamentals next week, next month, next year, next three years? No. But could I reasonably surmise that it will happen over some reasonable horizon, to the point that I will put my money where my mouth is? Yes.
As Keynes did not say:
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
Sure, that's possible. But it becomes a serious problem only if you're poorly diversified. Then you'd deserve it too.
That said, even if poorly diversified, the probability that the market's irrationality will outlive your solvency is inversely proportional to your horizon.
A 3 - 5 year horizon is something that I'd be quite comfortable with, in placing bets, since most marginal investors (that constitute much of the 'market' trades) can't/don't last that long.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
There's nothing in known economic theory that enables anyone to tell you 'what' and 'when' at the same time.
If someone does, they're flatly lying. And if people believe them, that's their problem.
Could I say that Apple is undervalued with near-certainty? Yes. But could I tell you that the price will revert to fundamentals next week, next month, next year, next three years? No. But could I reasonably surmise that it will happen over some reasonable horizon, to the point that I will put my money where my mouth is? Yes.
I love logical, pragmatic posts like this one. We need more of them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv
No one expected this one either, other than a few nut cases.
You really need to read more, think more, and knee-jerk less.
There were dozens and dozens of pretty smart people shouting from the rooftops about inflated housing, structured finance, derivatives, and financial markets in 2007/08. Names I can offhand think of include Shiller, Krugman, Buffett, Roubini, Taleb..... not to mention many financial services firms (including even some hedge funds that you seem to like a lot).
Quote:
Originally Posted by John Q. Public
"You know when you guys make these charts, you might want to include this thing called "the date." Only some stock weenie actually knows when "Q2" ends and "Q4" begins. Why not use those "Month" things on the chart so we can actually know what your prediction is?"
Um, let's see . . . If you divide a 12 month calendar into quarters, how many months would each quarter have? - Stock Weenie : )
Posts that begin with "Um" are usually full of it.
FYI, Apple’s fiscal year 2013 runs from September 30, 2012 through September 28, 2013.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ricochet
Why "react" when you can "create"?
I agree. Hopefully they will create something in the near future after three years of tweaking existing products.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
You really need to read more, think more, and knee-jerk less.
There were dozens and dozens of pretty smart people shouting from the rooftops about inflated housing, structured finance, derivatives, and financial markets in 2007/08. Names I can offhand think of include Shiller, Krugman, Buffett, Roubini, Taleb..... not to mention many financial services firms (including even some hedge funds that you seem to like a lot).
The average hedge fund lost 20% in 2008 (and they did as well as they did because they went to cash after the market took the first the first leg down, and stayed there pretty much for three years, which explains why hedge funds underperformed the market in recent years), the number of hedge funds which MADE money was quite small, so this was certainly not a consensus view.
Otherwise, I read and think plenty, thanks for your concern.