And this is just the stuff that can't be interpreted as an 'opinion'.
Those aren't lies. The lack of innovation is routinely discussed, so I was discussing perception. Of course I think they are innovating. Whether that innovation leads to a commercial product that can move the needle for a $40+ billion bottom line company remains to be seen.
I guess it depends what the 5S has. Lets hope the fingerprint and NFC rumors are true. Roll out same phone with a new camera and it will get ugly.
I don't think i said they will miss, but maybe I did. They have missed 3 of the last 4 quarters so not exactly a stretch to assume it happens again.
Tim knows the buyback is a mirage and not particularly beneficial to shareholders as it simply offsets dilution, so why say we are returning $45 billion? Shareholders will get the divvies in that number, they get none of the buyback, its smoke and mirrors.
Are you naive enough to believe Tim when he insinuated they aren't going to come out with a large screen phone. C'mon! Of course they will
As a buyside guy .... Listen, I have an Apple model, it is very tough to see any earnings growth this year.... the stock will react in-kind....Was it over-owned,,,,Do people need to rebalance and sell.... You are fine being overweight a name that is outperforming.
Judged by your swagger and your second-rate jargon, yep, you're (were) an analyst, alright.
A completely clueless one at that (although, that is perhaps a bit of redundancy).
the interesting part in the original article on Business Insider is that this analyst is saying Apple iPhone is going the way of the Blackberry and RAZR, that when they fell they fell father than expected. And Apple is heading the same direction. Once the lead has been taken, it's impossible to regain it. The one handset mindset, one form factor, with a screen only big enough for your thumb is the reason Apple is going to lose the smart phone market. Unless they pull off a miracle with the new phones coming out (if in fact they are coming. who really knows.)
Judged by your swagger and your second-rate jargon, yep, you're (were) an analyst, alright.
A completely clueless one at that (although, that is perhaps a bit of redundancy).
I honestly don't get the personal attacks here. I get it, i'm an outsider, people here are valued based on the number of posts they have (which sadly you see on many forums) and I have few posts.
I am still an analyst, don't feel the need to defend myself. Very easy to attack a profession when you haven't been involved in it or don't know truly what it entails. Trust me, on the buyside/hf world, you put up or are gone. You lose money, get below your high water mark and the doors shut.
I won't stoop to your level and call you names. Its quite boorish, but I hope you feel like a bigger man for doing it.
Trying to have an intelligent discussion about what ails the stock, which is disconnected a bit from reality from what is happening at company. Everyone here just want to say everything is fine and its those mean analysts that are gaming the system, which I find quite funny.
To some degree this is the iPod model in reverse. Apple didn't invent the digital mp3 player they reinvented it. Back then many people said Apple stole this idea or copied it. But it really didn't matter if it was true or not. The iPod was just a far superior product. I still have my 2nd generation 20GB firewire iPod which I now use as an emergency boot up and repair external drive. That is quality.
Now you have people saying that Samsung is just copying Apple. If you look at their phones before the iPhone compared to now, you have a very strong case to make. But at the end of the day it really doesn't matter anymore than it did when people said the same thing about the iPods. The courts have had their say more or less and like or hate the decisions we have to accept them. What gets lost in all this Samsung vs. Apple discussion is the fact that much of their growth are coming from former customers of Blackberry, Nokia, HTC, and other companies. They are the companies really hurting as these two giants just continue their dominance. Can a third company emerge to be a viable alternative?
Samsung is doing well but so is Apple. It is a big world and there is plenty of room for both companies to make massive profits. It is not a zero sum game when you have billions and billions of potential customers. Other MP3 players also tried to copy from Apple but failed miserably. Samsung is a far bigger challenge than the likes of the Zune though. The S4 looks to be a very impressive bit of kit that will have great appeal to their customer base. It will also be out several months before Apple can answer and when they do Samsung will probably release their Note 3. Apple will need to step up their game a bit to continue growth. Apple is no HTC or Blackberry, they have the products and the people to ensure they will not get steamrolled. I just hope they step a bit out of their comfort zone and release a larger iPhone. Large displays are no longer a niche or a fad. They are here to stay and that is a massive gap in their lineup. Take the fight to Samsung and release a big beautiful iPhone and watch these same analysts start saying Samsung is the one in trouble for a change.
Samsung is up to S4 and sales are still growing. Same with the Note 2. If what you say is true then sales should be shrinking by now.
[oh, and by the way... the 2 mentioned... not what you would really call cheap]
If they are really selling, why wouldn't such a vocal company report actual sales. Weren't the sales they reported during the trial was much lower than the estimates provided. They were shipping 20 and 30 million units per quarter but stopped reporting actual sales in mid 2011. When they court forced them to release sales they only sold 21 million between 2010 and June of 2012. Apple "sold" 85 million during the same period. Odd that the media continues to sell their lies.
I honestly don't get the personal attacks here. I get it, i'm an outsider, people here are valued based on the number of posts they have (which sadly you see on many forums) and I have few posts.
I am still an analyst, don't feel the need to defend myself. Very easy to attack a profession when you haven't been involved in it or don't know truly what it entails. Trust me, on the buyside/hf world, you put up or are gone. You lose money, get below your high water mark and the doors shut.
I won't stoop to your level and call you names. Its quite boorish, but I hope you feel like a bigger man for doing it.
Trying to have an intelligent discussion about what ails the stock, which is disconnected a bit from reality from what is happening at company. Everyone here just want to say everything is fine and its those mean analysts that are gaming the system, which I find quite funny.
Fair enough.
Since you're the one that brought up your 'model' for AAPL, plus claimed that you were a buy-side analyst, and appear to have a fairly strongly-held view on Apple's value, tell us:
1) What is your earnings estimate for 2013-14?
2) How are you estimating Apple's growth in earnings? For how many periods? What CAGR? Even focusing on just the existing business (and no new product lines), what are you building in, in terms of: (i) Overall market growth in PCs, smartphones, and tablets? (ii) Apple's share in each of these markets? (iii) Apple's average unit price in each of these markets?
3) Are you factoring in the likely growth in China (if China Mobile happens), as well as the wide open India market in the above?
4) What assumptions are you making about gross, operating, and profit margins? Do they stay the same? Fade over time?
5) What cost of equity (discount rate) are you using?
6) How are you calculating your terminal value -- by using a multiple, or the constant growth model (or its variant)? If the former, what is the implied cost of equity and 'g' in your multiple? If the latter, what are you assuming about long-run cost of equity and 'g'?
7) How model-consistent is your assumption of 'g' (explicit or implied) with the ROE and the reinvestment rate implied by your model?
There are just the main initial questions.
Depending on your answers, I will likely have more questions for you.
If they are really selling, why wouldn't such a vocal company report actual sales. Weren't the sales they reported during the trial was much lower than the estimates provided. They were shipping 20 and 30 million units per quarter but stopped reporting actual sales in mid 2011. When they court forced them to release sales they only sold 21 million between 2010 and June of 2012. Apple "sold" 85 million during the same period. Odd that the media continues to sell their lies.
You have to read things more carefully.
These figures are U.S. Sales only and do not include the Note, Note 2 nor the S3.
The original argument: People just have to try a Samsung phone and Samsung's sales will plummet.
My reply: Why are Samsung sales still increasing? [which they are, btw]
These figures are U.S. Sales only and do not include the Note, Note 2 nor the S3.
The original argument: People just have to try a Samsung phone and Samsung's sales will plummet.
My reply: Why are Samsung sales still increasing? [which they are, btw]
In worldwide sales last quarter the SIII declined in numbers and was beaten by both the 4s and the far newer 5. If comparing comparable phones isn't appropriate (Flagship to Flagship as it were) you want to include Samsung's washer dryer combo's in the comparison?
In worldwide sales last quarter the SIII declined in numbers and was beaten by both the 4s and the far newer 5. If comparing comparable phones isn't appropriate (Flagship to Flagship as it were) you want to include Samsung's washer dryer combo's in the comparison?
I don't.
... and the Note and Note 2. They are increasing in numbers and I don't think you can wash or dry anything with them.
So... Samsung numbers are still increasing. I guess trying them out really hasn't discouraged people.
As far as the S3 goes... I'll use the old Apple argument... people are waiting for the S4.
... and the Note and Note 2. They are increasing in numbers and I don't think you can wash or dry anything with them.
So... Samsung numbers are still increasing. I guess trying them out really hasn't discouraged people.
As far as the S3 goes... I'll use the old Apple argument... people are waiting for the S4.
As are Apple's numbers increasing..... but the breakdown of which portions of the model lioneup are increasing and how that effects the profitshare is what is a criticval element that tends to be overlooked when raw item numbers "marketshare" is all that is stated as if a very inexpensive, low profit or loss leader low end "smartphones" are equivalanet to the flagships.
Comparable offerings are more informative IMHO. The Note II is an overly expensive LTE iPad mini (speaking of rapidly increasing numbers...) as I see it (that voice contract is a problem). but I guess adding in the numers for both (Note II and mini) would be interesting.... The Note II was reportedly around 5 million, the iPad mini 12 million...
What I want to know is where are all of these Android tablets and phones??? I see iOS devices at least 4:1 over anything else... and the "anything else" tends to be old feature phones like those from Nokia, which are still popular here in Germany.
Tim was in fact asked by Steve to not run the company he did, he was even told to not ask himself 'what would Steve do?'.
I was being specific with how he relates / communicates with Wall Street. That hasn't changed much, but Tim doesn't get the benefit of the doubt, like Steve did.
Since you're the one that brought up your 'model' for AAPL, plus claimed that you were a buy-side analyst, and appear to have a fairly strongly-held view on Apple's value, tell us:
1) What is your earnings estimate for 2013-14?
2) How are you estimating Apple's growth in earnings? For how many periods? What CAGR? Even focusing on just the existing business (and no new product lines), what are you building in, in terms of: (i) Overall market growth in PCs, smartphones, and tablets? (ii) Apple's share in each of these markets? (iii) Apple's average unit price in each of these markets?
3) Are you factoring in the likely growth in China (if China Mobile happens), as well as the wide open India market in the above?
4) What assumptions are you making about gross, operating, and profit margins? Do they stay the same? Fade over time?
5) What cost of equity (discount rate) are you using?
6) How are you calculating your terminal value -- by using a multiple, or the constant growth model (or its variant)? If the former, what is the implied cost of equity and 'g' in your multiple? If the latter, what are you assuming about long-run cost of equity and 'g'?
7) How model-consistent is your assumption of 'g' (explicit or implied) with the ROE and the reinvestment rate implied by your model?
There are just the main initial questions.
Depending on your answers, I will likely have more questions for you.
I see you are throwing out academic terms that don't get used often in the real world, but I can revert back to mba/cfa days and adjust my model to answer these. Give me a day. Let me know if you have a bloomberg terminal, in addition to the model can build in some neat auto-updating charts to help track relative performance and would be more than willing to somehow share the entire thing.
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
And this is just the stuff that can't be interpreted as an 'opinion'.
Those aren't lies. The lack of innovation is routinely discussed, so I was discussing perception. Of course I think they are innovating. Whether that innovation leads to a commercial product that can move the needle for a $40+ billion bottom line company remains to be seen.
I guess it depends what the 5S has. Lets hope the fingerprint and NFC rumors are true. Roll out same phone with a new camera and it will get ugly.
I don't think i said they will miss, but maybe I did. They have missed 3 of the last 4 quarters so not exactly a stretch to assume it happens again.
Tim knows the buyback is a mirage and not particularly beneficial to shareholders as it simply offsets dilution, so why say we are returning $45 billion? Shareholders will get the divvies in that number, they get none of the buyback, its smoke and mirrors.
Are you naive enough to believe Tim when he insinuated they aren't going to come out with a large screen phone. C'mon! Of course they will
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123
As a buyside guy .... Listen, I have an Apple model, it is very tough to see any earnings growth this year.... the stock will react in-kind....Was it over-owned,,,,Do people need to rebalance and sell.... You are fine being overweight a name that is outperforming.
Judged by your swagger and your second-rate jargon, yep, you're (were) an analyst, alright.
A completely clueless one at that (although, that is perhaps a bit of redundancy).
Originally Posted by waldobushman
Great products need great salesmen and Cook is simply not that guy. Great ideas don't sell themselves.
Phil.
They have nobody at this time who can light up a room as soon as they come through the door. That is what they need.
Jony. Though he hates the limelight.
There is no one on Apple's team that is pushing Apple and setting direction.
Tim, Jony, Bob, and Phil.
I would like to see Craig step up his game, but we all know Apple doesn't care about OS X.
the interesting part in the original article on Business Insider is that this analyst is saying Apple iPhone is going the way of the Blackberry and RAZR, that when they fell they fell father than expected. And Apple is heading the same direction. Once the lead has been taken, it's impossible to regain it. The one handset mindset, one form factor, with a screen only big enough for your thumb is the reason Apple is going to lose the smart phone market. Unless they pull off a miracle with the new phones coming out (if in fact they are coming. who really knows.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Judged by your swagger and your second-rate jargon, yep, you're (were) an analyst, alright.
A completely clueless one at that (although, that is perhaps a bit of redundancy).
I honestly don't get the personal attacks here. I get it, i'm an outsider, people here are valued based on the number of posts they have (which sadly you see on many forums) and I have few posts.
I am still an analyst, don't feel the need to defend myself. Very easy to attack a profession when you haven't been involved in it or don't know truly what it entails. Trust me, on the buyside/hf world, you put up or are gone. You lose money, get below your high water mark and the doors shut.
I won't stoop to your level and call you names. Its quite boorish, but I hope you feel like a bigger man for doing it.
Trying to have an intelligent discussion about what ails the stock, which is disconnected a bit from reality from what is happening at company. Everyone here just want to say everything is fine and its those mean analysts that are gaming the system, which I find quite funny.
To some degree this is the iPod model in reverse. Apple didn't invent the digital mp3 player they reinvented it. Back then many people said Apple stole this idea or copied it. But it really didn't matter if it was true or not. The iPod was just a far superior product. I still have my 2nd generation 20GB firewire iPod which I now use as an emergency boot up and repair external drive. That is quality.
Now you have people saying that Samsung is just copying Apple. If you look at their phones before the iPhone compared to now, you have a very strong case to make. But at the end of the day it really doesn't matter anymore than it did when people said the same thing about the iPods. The courts have had their say more or less and like or hate the decisions we have to accept them. What gets lost in all this Samsung vs. Apple discussion is the fact that much of their growth are coming from former customers of Blackberry, Nokia, HTC, and other companies. They are the companies really hurting as these two giants just continue their dominance. Can a third company emerge to be a viable alternative?
Samsung is doing well but so is Apple. It is a big world and there is plenty of room for both companies to make massive profits. It is not a zero sum game when you have billions and billions of potential customers. Other MP3 players also tried to copy from Apple but failed miserably. Samsung is a far bigger challenge than the likes of the Zune though. The S4 looks to be a very impressive bit of kit that will have great appeal to their customer base. It will also be out several months before Apple can answer and when they do Samsung will probably release their Note 3. Apple will need to step up their game a bit to continue growth. Apple is no HTC or Blackberry, they have the products and the people to ensure they will not get steamrolled. I just hope they step a bit out of their comfort zone and release a larger iPhone. Large displays are no longer a niche or a fad. They are here to stay and that is a massive gap in their lineup. Take the fight to Samsung and release a big beautiful iPhone and watch these same analysts start saying Samsung is the one in trouble for a change.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
Now that's silly.
Samsung is up to S4 and sales are still growing. Same with the Note 2. If what you say is true then sales should be shrinking by now.
[oh, and by the way... the 2 mentioned... not what you would really call cheap]
If they are really selling, why wouldn't such a vocal company report actual sales. Weren't the sales they reported during the trial was much lower than the estimates provided. They were shipping 20 and 30 million units per quarter but stopped reporting actual sales in mid 2011. When they court forced them to release sales they only sold 21 million between 2010 and June of 2012. Apple "sold" 85 million during the same period. Odd that the media continues to sell their lies.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123
I honestly don't get the personal attacks here. I get it, i'm an outsider, people here are valued based on the number of posts they have (which sadly you see on many forums) and I have few posts.
I am still an analyst, don't feel the need to defend myself. Very easy to attack a profession when you haven't been involved in it or don't know truly what it entails. Trust me, on the buyside/hf world, you put up or are gone. You lose money, get below your high water mark and the doors shut.
I won't stoop to your level and call you names. Its quite boorish, but I hope you feel like a bigger man for doing it.
Trying to have an intelligent discussion about what ails the stock, which is disconnected a bit from reality from what is happening at company. Everyone here just want to say everything is fine and its those mean analysts that are gaming the system, which I find quite funny.
Fair enough.
Since you're the one that brought up your 'model' for AAPL, plus claimed that you were a buy-side analyst, and appear to have a fairly strongly-held view on Apple's value, tell us:
1) What is your earnings estimate for 2013-14?
2) How are you estimating Apple's growth in earnings? For how many periods? What CAGR? Even focusing on just the existing business (and no new product lines), what are you building in, in terms of: (i) Overall market growth in PCs, smartphones, and tablets? (ii) Apple's share in each of these markets? (iii) Apple's average unit price in each of these markets?
3) Are you factoring in the likely growth in China (if China Mobile happens), as well as the wide open India market in the above?
4) What assumptions are you making about gross, operating, and profit margins? Do they stay the same? Fade over time?
5) What cost of equity (discount rate) are you using?
6) How are you calculating your terminal value -- by using a multiple, or the constant growth model (or its variant)? If the former, what is the implied cost of equity and 'g' in your multiple? If the latter, what are you assuming about long-run cost of equity and 'g'?
7) How model-consistent is your assumption of 'g' (explicit or implied) with the ROE and the reinvestment rate implied by your model?
There are just the main initial questions.
Depending on your answers, I will likely have more questions for you.
The SIII sales declined last quarter. Declined so that the year old 4s outsold it and the 5 sold double the SIII's numbers.
Last quarter the #1 selling smartphone was the iPhone 5 and the #2 selling smartphone was the iPhone 4.
Quote:
Originally Posted by genovelle
If they are really selling, why wouldn't such a vocal company report actual sales. Weren't the sales they reported during the trial was much lower than the estimates provided. They were shipping 20 and 30 million units per quarter but stopped reporting actual sales in mid 2011. When they court forced them to release sales they only sold 21 million between 2010 and June of 2012. Apple "sold" 85 million during the same period. Odd that the media continues to sell their lies.
You have to read things more carefully.
These figures are U.S. Sales only and do not include the Note, Note 2 nor the S3.
The original argument: People just have to try a Samsung phone and Samsung's sales will plummet.
My reply: Why are Samsung sales still increasing? [which they are, btw]
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickag
Because they compete in the low end range of phones and sell on about twice the carriers than Apple.
Last quarter the #1 selling smartphone was the iPhone 5 and the #2 selling smartphone was the iPhone 4.
Which has nothing to do with the original argument.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
You have to read things more carefully.
These figures are U.S. Sales only and do not include the Note, Note 2 nor the S3.
The original argument: People just have to try a Samsung phone and Samsung's sales will plummet.
My reply: Why are Samsung sales still increasing? [which they are, btw]
In worldwide sales last quarter the SIII declined in numbers and was beaten by both the 4s and the far newer 5. If comparing comparable phones isn't appropriate (Flagship to Flagship as it were) you want to include Samsung's washer dryer combo's in the comparison?
I don't.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc1138
In worldwide sales last quarter the SIII declined in numbers and was beaten by both the 4s and the far newer 5. If comparing comparable phones isn't appropriate (Flagship to Flagship as it were) you want to include Samsung's washer dryer combo's in the comparison?
I don't.
... and the Note and Note 2. They are increasing in numbers and I don't think you can wash or dry anything with them.
So... Samsung numbers are still increasing. I guess trying them out really hasn't discouraged people.
As far as the S3 goes... I'll use the old Apple argument... people are waiting for the S4.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
... and the Note and Note 2. They are increasing in numbers and I don't think you can wash or dry anything with them.
So... Samsung numbers are still increasing. I guess trying them out really hasn't discouraged people.
As far as the S3 goes... I'll use the old Apple argument... people are waiting for the S4.
As are Apple's numbers increasing..... but the breakdown of which portions of the model lioneup are increasing and how that effects the profitshare is what is a criticval element that tends to be overlooked when raw item numbers "marketshare" is all that is stated as if a very inexpensive, low profit or loss leader low end "smartphones" are equivalanet to the flagships.
Comparable offerings are more informative IMHO. The Note II is an overly expensive LTE iPad mini (speaking of rapidly increasing numbers...) as I see it (that voice contract is a problem). but I guess adding in the numers for both (Note II and mini) would be interesting.... The Note II was reportedly around 5 million, the iPad mini 12 million...
Tim was in fact asked by Steve to not run the company he did, he was even told to not ask himself 'what would Steve do?'.
This just in --- IDC is jumping into the fray with negative news about Apple :
[URL=http://************/2013/03/12/idc-estimates-android-will-pass-apple-for-worldwide-tablet-market-share-in-2013-on-the-back-of-smallercheaper-tablets/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+9To5Mac-MacAllDay+(9+to+5+Mac+-+Apple+Intelligence)&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher]IDC estimates Android will pass Apple for worldwide tablet market share in 2013 on the back of smaller/cheaper tablets[/URL]
What I want to know is where are all of these Android tablets and phones??? I see iOS devices at least 4:1 over anything else... and the "anything else" tends to be old feature phones like those from Nokia, which are still popular here in Germany.
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie
Tim was in fact asked by Steve to not run the company he did, he was even told to not ask himself 'what would Steve do?'.
I was being specific with how he relates / communicates with Wall Street. That hasn't changed much, but Tim doesn't get the benefit of the doubt, like Steve did.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Fair enough.
Since you're the one that brought up your 'model' for AAPL, plus claimed that you were a buy-side analyst, and appear to have a fairly strongly-held view on Apple's value, tell us:
1) What is your earnings estimate for 2013-14?
2) How are you estimating Apple's growth in earnings? For how many periods? What CAGR? Even focusing on just the existing business (and no new product lines), what are you building in, in terms of: (i) Overall market growth in PCs, smartphones, and tablets? (ii) Apple's share in each of these markets? (iii) Apple's average unit price in each of these markets?
3) Are you factoring in the likely growth in China (if China Mobile happens), as well as the wide open India market in the above?
4) What assumptions are you making about gross, operating, and profit margins? Do they stay the same? Fade over time?
5) What cost of equity (discount rate) are you using?
6) How are you calculating your terminal value -- by using a multiple, or the constant growth model (or its variant)? If the former, what is the implied cost of equity and 'g' in your multiple? If the latter, what are you assuming about long-run cost of equity and 'g'?
7) How model-consistent is your assumption of 'g' (explicit or implied) with the ROE and the reinvestment rate implied by your model?
There are just the main initial questions.
Depending on your answers, I will likely have more questions for you.
I see you are throwing out academic terms that don't get used often in the real world, but I can revert back to mba/cfa days and adjust my model to answer these. Give me a day. Let me know if you have a bloomberg terminal, in addition to the model can build in some neat auto-updating charts to help track relative performance and would be more than willing to somehow share the entire thing.