While everyone around them is getting better, Apple is getting worse. That is going to be the theme until they change it and unfortunately, a 5S won't change so we'll have most of the year where the mainstream view is that Apple is in decline because they whiffed on product cycles and further can't execute. Frankly, its hard to argue that isn't the case.
I have to laugh at the responses. Perhaps only the Emperor's new clothes posts should be allowed on this site. Wondering how Apple is getting "worse" (and I realize that is relative) consider that the iPad mini blew by the iPad in terms of sales and it carries a lower gross profit per unit. iPhone 4s and 4s' are selling just as well as the 5s because people arent willing to pay for the difference. If your flagship product cant outsell older phones it doesnt bode well for future releases (although it is a nice comment on the quality of the 4s).
With that said it's still a cash cow, but it's going to take some time to find a bottom in terms of EPS drop unless the dividend is raised significantly to support the share price. The good thing is the free cash flow is strong enough to support a 50% increase. However, a failure to raise the dividend this month should be taken as a sign next quarter is going to be bad. I mean it's going to be bad relative to the same quarter last year because of compressed margins, but with lower profit devices unexpectedly making up a larger percentage of overall sales it probably will miss Apple's guidance. When Cook explains they did not forecast 4s, 4s', and minis making up such a large percentage of sales you can all pretend like it is a big surprise because you refuse to acknowledge the obvious.
So if you really are in it for the long haul lets hope the dividend increase comes this month or at least prior to the next earnings release. If not it's going to get rocky...as in 350-360 rocky.
I clarified that statement to mean he can't deal with Wall Street the way SJ did. A fair retort otherwise.
And how exactly did Jobs "deal" with Wallstreet? He didn't. He completely ignored them. Cook is much, much friendlier to them. And look how they've rewarded him. It;s easy to blame the stock fall on the CEO or on specific decisions. But sometimes it's not that simple, and the answer is much more complex, and sometimes malicious.
Apple's performance lately has been phenomenal, continually breaking their previous records. Historically stock should reflect performance, but in Apple's case it does not. Most of the negative stories around Apple lately have been completely bullshit, and make statements that are either disingenuous or factually untrue. Some WANT the stock to tank, and it seems there's been a concerted effort by Wall Street and the media to get it to do so. There's nothing I've seen in Apple's fundamentals that warrants this drop. They're in a better position now than they were a year ago. Sales haven't been higher. Corporate, enterprise, and Education adoption is through the roof. They've addressed the smaller tablet market, and have completely dominated it, quelling those fears of cheaper tablets eating into Apple's share. The surface is pretty much a bomb. None of the fear-mongering that was going on came true, they're in the best position anyone can be with their control of the hardware, software, appstore, and entire ecosystem. Apple RIGHT NOW, ignoring the stock, is in the best shape it's EVER been, easily.
I have to laugh at the responses. Perhaps only the Emperor's new clothes posts should be allowed on this site. Wondering how Apple is getting "worse" (and I realize that is relative) consider that the iPad mini blew by the iPad in terms of sales and it carries a lower gross profit per unit. iPhone 4s and 4s' are selling just as well as the 5s because people arent willing to pay for the difference. If your flagship product cant outsell older phones it doesnt bode well for future releases (although it is a nice comment on the quality of the 4s).
With that said it's still a cash cow, but it's going to take some time to find a bottom in terms of EPS drop unless the dividend is raised significantly to support the share price. The good thing is the free cash flow is strong enough to support a 50% increase. However, a failure to raise the dividend this month should be taken as a sign next quarter is going to be bad. I mean it's going to be bad relative to the same quarter last year because of compressed margins, but with lower profit devices unexpectedly making up a larger percentage of overall sales it probably will miss Apple's guidance. When Cook explains they did not forecast 4s, 4s', and minis making up such a large percentage of sales you can all pretend like it is a big surprise because you refuse to acknowledge the obvious.
So if you really are in it for the long haul lets hope the dividend increase comes this month or at least prior to the next earnings release. If not it's going to get rocky...as in 350-360 rocky.
Okay start throwing stones now.
The 5 outsold the 4. It's embarrassing for Sammy that a two y.o. Iphone outsold its flagship.
And how exactly did Jobs "deal" with Wallstreet? He didn't. He completely ignored them. Cook is much, much friendlier to them. And look how they've rewarded him.
I think this just about hits on it.....the street believed in SJ, believed he had vision.
I have to laugh at the responses. Perhaps only the Emperor's new clothes posts should be allowed on this site. Wondering how Apple is getting "worse" (and I realize that is relative) consider that the iPad mini blew by the iPad in terms of sales and it carries a lower gross profit per unit. iPhone 4s and 4s' are selling just as well as the 5s because people arent willing to pay for the difference. If your flagship product cant outsell older phones it doesnt bode well for future releases (although it is a nice comment on the quality of the 4s).
With that said it's still a cash cow, but it's going to take some time to find a bottom in terms of EPS drop unless the dividend is raised significantly to support the share price. The good thing is the free cash flow is strong enough to support a 50% increase. However, a failure to raise the dividend this month should be taken as a sign next quarter is going to be bad. I mean it's going to be bad relative to the same quarter last year because of compressed margins, but with lower profit devices unexpectedly making up a larger percentage of overall sales it probably will miss Apple's guidance. When Cook explains they did not forecast 4s, 4s', and minis making up such a large percentage of sales you can all pretend like it is a big surprise because you refuse to acknowledge the obvious.
So if you really are in it for the long haul lets hope the dividend increase comes this month or at least prior to the next earnings release. If not it's going to get rocky...as in 350-360 rocky.
Okay start throwing stones now.
Apple is intentionally limiting its profit growth via its 'good at a few things mantra.' To your point, when you start introducing new products that cannabalize your existing products but they come with lower asp's and lower gm's, that is a big problem for earnings.
Agree its a cash cow and agree EPS likely in big trouble next couple quarters versus a year ago. Writing seems to be on the wall that 2013 is a down year, and have to hope they can rebound in 2014. I think they guide the June qtr well below the Street again, but hopefully they aren't that out of touch with the reality of their business to miss their own guidance this qtr.
Really didn't need to be this way is the problem. Take cash to $150 billion and the stock to $350 and the enterprise value/value of the company is back to 2010 levels, pre-ipad ($328b mkt cap less 150b cash = 178b value of Apple, down 67% from its peak).
I bet that if Apple simply uses the name iPhone 6 instead of iPhone 5S that would create enough buzz to shut the naysayers up. Rightly or wrongly people perceive the S versions as a slight tweak instead of an entirely new phone. It just doesn't seem to get people as excited as a whole number change. It can still be the exact same phone they are planning to release, just change the name and that will make most people happy. Perception is reality after all.
No, sales are reality and the 3GS and 4S sold like crazy — above and beyond their prior incarnations.
Send me your email, i'll send you what I have, its not very complex or prettied up at moment is all, I was going to spend some time building it out. I asked for a day to do so, but you would rather not wait. That is fine.
Right, so guys like me that have work with converts or put on bond vs equity trades, vol vs credit, options vs credit and thus have exposure to credit and equity..... you think there are two analysts one that focuses on equity and the other credit? The fact that you are implying that would have to be the case tells me all I need to know about you. Tell me how you buy a convert, short the stock against it (or vice versa) on a neutral hedge and don't care if the stock goes up or down and can still make a ton of money. How does that work? Tell me what you know about merton or kmv models that show credit is nothing more than a derivative of equity volatility (what I meant by vol, which I'm sure you didn't know). Tell me the correlation between the VIX and high yield credit spreads. Tell me the correlation between a single company option vol and its credit default swaps or credit spreads. All these model and correlations exist based on the theory and historical relationships that show equity value is nothing more than a long-term option on the underlying value of a company's assets with a strike price of the company's debt.
But sure, big difference between being a credit and equity analyst. Other than knowing how to read and indenture and credit agreement, no difference between analyzing company fundamentals. None.
Go ahead an google what I'm explaining and respond so you can pretend you have any idea what I just said.
1) I can wait a couple of days. No problem. I don't need to send you my email: you can PM me within AI.
2) Your para 2 just reaffirms what I said earlier: you've got your jargon down. (I would be, however, intrigued to see the empirical evidence on the correlation between VIX and high yield credit spreads; I always thought that was silly trader lore, but I'd love to see a solid academic study on the topic).
3) Regarding credit analysis versus equity analysis: Where and when (and increasingly, I am wondering, why) did you do an MBA!? Just look up Chapter 1 of any basic Finance or Accounting textbook. Actually, let me help help you -- this once (since I found it easily)! Here's Chapter 1 of a well-known Accounting textbook, where you might want to look at pp. 8-9: http://highered.mcgraw-hill.com/sites/dl/free/0073379433/597452/Subramanyam_fsa_sample_Ch01.pdf
1) I can wait a couple of days. No problem. I don't need to send you my email: you can PM me within AI.
2) Your para 2 just reaffirms what I said earlier: you've got your jargon down. (I would be, however, intrigued to see the empirical evidence on the correlation between VIX and high yield credit spreads; I always thought that was silly trader lore, but I'd love to see a solid academic study on the topic).
3) Regarding credit analysis versus equity analysis: Where and when (and increasingly, I am wondering, why) did you do an MBA!? Just look up Chapter 1 of any basic Finance or Accounting textbook. Actually, let me help help you -- this once (since I found it easily)! Here's Chapter 1 of a well-known Accounting textbook, where you might want to look at pp. 8-9: http://highered.mcgraw-hill.com/sites/dl/free/0073379433/597452/Subramanyam_fsa_sample_Ch01.pdf
1) No problem
2) The VIX is simply implied vol on the broader equity market (s&p). High yield bond indices are broadly diversified like the s&p, many of the same constituents. Therefore the merton and kmv models that I referenced apply not only to individual companies, but also the market as a whole, so I would point you to those incredibly academic and rigorous model, although I will acknowledge gaussian copula/multivariate distributions are a little complex for anyone not holding an advanced math degree.
3) Not sure I get the point. You can't believe credit analysts can't do equity analysis and vice versa. Happens all day, every day in the real world. MBAs are easy anywhere if you put in the time, so where anyone went is irrelevant, imo. CFA, not so much. What is the point of the link, its basic accounting taught to undergrad students. Reading that and understanding it are too vastly different things. I know a lot of MBAs who can't build a fully functioning model that links IS, CF and BS and actually balances.
2) The VIX is simply implied vol on the broader equity market (s&p). High yield bond indices are broadly diversified like the s&p, many of the same constituents. Therefore the merton and kmv models that I referenced apply not only to individual companies, but also the market as a whole, so I would point you to those incredibly academic and rigorous model, although I will acknowledge gaussian copula/multivariate distributions are a little complex for anyone not holding an advanced math degree.
3) Not sure I get the point.
2) You didn't even understand the question I asked, did you? (Hint: It was about empirical evidence.)
3) Of course you don't. All you've done here in this forum is show a lot of useless jargon and overconfident bombast. You have little ability to back up a single claim you've made .
Any further conversation with you in this thread is a complete waste of time. (Just be aware that, on AI, you'll be called out for your BS again and again).
The analyst has cut his iPhone estimate for the current quarter from 37.5 million to 35 million. He sees the company reporting revenues of $41 billion, but gives 25 percent "probability" that Apple will miss its guidance due to sales slowing even further in the second half of March.
So 75 perent probability that Apple will NOT miss its guidance?
I think Apple's only problem is an unsustainable profit margin. They command a high premium for their product at the expense of carrier subsidies. Samsung doesn't command as high a profit margin, but with their diversified product portfolio, they can take a blow if their flagship phone is a dud.
Apple is at the mercy of carriers, whether they want to pay $450 subsidy, or $350 like they do with almost everyone else. If the iPhone 5S were to cost $299 with a 2 year contract, people would definitely look at that vs. the S4, or they would even compare it to the Note 2. Hell I think they would go as far as to look at a Nexus 4, $299 NO CONTRACT.
That's the real problem, Apple is riding on the "We're the best and everyone wants our product" gravy train, and people are realizing that strategy won't last forever.
I think Apple's only problem is an unsustainable profit margin. They command a high premium for their product at the expense of carrier subsidies. Samsung doesn't command as high a profit margin, but with their diversified product portfolio, they can take a blow if their flagship phone is a dud.
Apple is at the mercy of carriers, whether they want to pay $450 subsidy, or $350 like they do with almost everyone else. If the iPhone 5S were to cost $299 with a 2 year contract, people would definitely look at that vs. the S4, or they would even compare it to the Note 2. Hell I think they would go as far as to look at a Nexus 4, $299 NO CONTRACT.
That's the real problem, Apple is riding on the "We're the best and everyone wants our product" gravy train, and people are realizing that strategy won't last forever.
The 5 is $200/300 with a 2y contract. It hasn't hurt Apple at all. I also think its the other way around. Apple isn't at the mercy of carriers. Do you think they want to subsidize the iPhone that much? The know people want the iPhone. They are going to offer it or lose subscribers.
2) You didn't even understand the question I asked, did you? (Hint: It was about empirical evidence.)
3) Of course you don't. All you've done here in this forum is show a lot of useless jargon and overconfident bombast. You have little ability to back up a single claim you've made .
Any further conversation with you in this thread is a complete waste of time. (Just be aware that, on AI, you'll be called out for your BS again and again).
Useless jargon? I wasn't the one referencing textbooks and throwing out terminal value, etc. I am using jargon that people who invest more in the real world use. I'm not surprised you can't or don't answer my questions as many of the answers can't be found in a textbook or via a google search, so you are at a loss. You actually have to do it, not read about it to have a clue. You don't need an empirical study to know equity volatility and credit spreads are linked, it is common sense if you have full grasp of balance sheets, and what volatility means.
I agree further conversation with you is a waste of time.
Both can be right. The iPhone 5 outsold every other model with the 4 in 2nd. Combined I'm sure Sammy out shipped Apple with its 50 models. If Sammy actually reported numbers, this could be settled real quick.
I don't understand why people are so unhappy with the lowballing "analysts". If you are a long-term investor and have a reason to believe in your company long-term growth shouldn't you be happy with the stock price falling? Just use that as an opportunity to buy.
Without going onto this particular analyst's opinion, I think the risk in what you're saying is that if a stock is not participating when the market is moving up, then it may fall that much more when/if it goes down. Now that would likely be a shorter term concern. And I understand your point about the longer term. But one concern I've read about Apple is that if it becomes a value stock instead of a growth stock, then one might have the opportunity to buy "low" for years... like MSFT.
Personally, I think Apple is set to regain its mojo over the next couple of quarters. Assuming its next couple of product releases are successful, I think the market sentiment, which is really what's beating the stock price down, should turn positive again. I don't want it to soar. Just regain its presence in the $550-$600 range.
But with that said, I am not at all happy with Cook or how he's handled himself over the past six months or so. My unhappiness is not that he has lost focus. But he has done little to contain that criticism. From the Maps debacle, to the iMac shipping issues, to the public spat with Einhorn, to now facing the possibility that iPhone shipments are a little shaky, if not handled properly, these sorts of PR mud puddles can help sentiment remain negative. And then one finds himself seeing Steve Ballmer's face when he looks in the mirror in the morning. But I suspect the frightening prospect of that nightmare should be enough to get Cook to right the ship ASAP.
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123
While everyone around them is getting better, Apple is getting worse. That is going to be the theme until they change it and unfortunately, a 5S won't change so we'll have most of the year where the mainstream view is that Apple is in decline because they whiffed on product cycles and further can't execute. Frankly, its hard to argue that isn't the case.
I have to laugh at the responses. Perhaps only the Emperor's new clothes posts should be allowed on this site. Wondering how Apple is getting "worse" (and I realize that is relative) consider that the iPad mini blew by the iPad in terms of sales and it carries a lower gross profit per unit. iPhone 4s and 4s' are selling just as well as the 5s because people arent willing to pay for the difference. If your flagship product cant outsell older phones it doesnt bode well for future releases (although it is a nice comment on the quality of the 4s).
With that said it's still a cash cow, but it's going to take some time to find a bottom in terms of EPS drop unless the dividend is raised significantly to support the share price. The good thing is the free cash flow is strong enough to support a 50% increase. However, a failure to raise the dividend this month should be taken as a sign next quarter is going to be bad. I mean it's going to be bad relative to the same quarter last year because of compressed margins, but with lower profit devices unexpectedly making up a larger percentage of overall sales it probably will miss Apple's guidance. When Cook explains they did not forecast 4s, 4s', and minis making up such a large percentage of sales you can all pretend like it is a big surprise because you refuse to acknowledge the obvious.
So if you really are in it for the long haul lets hope the dividend increase comes this month or at least prior to the next earnings release. If not it's going to get rocky...as in 350-360 rocky.
Okay start throwing stones now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123
I clarified that statement to mean he can't deal with Wall Street the way SJ did. A fair retort otherwise.
And how exactly did Jobs "deal" with Wallstreet? He didn't. He completely ignored them. Cook is much, much friendlier to them. And look how they've rewarded him. It;s easy to blame the stock fall on the CEO or on specific decisions. But sometimes it's not that simple, and the answer is much more complex, and sometimes malicious.
Apple's performance lately has been phenomenal, continually breaking their previous records. Historically stock should reflect performance, but in Apple's case it does not. Most of the negative stories around Apple lately have been completely bullshit, and make statements that are either disingenuous or factually untrue. Some WANT the stock to tank, and it seems there's been a concerted effort by Wall Street and the media to get it to do so. There's nothing I've seen in Apple's fundamentals that warrants this drop. They're in a better position now than they were a year ago. Sales haven't been higher. Corporate, enterprise, and Education adoption is through the roof. They've addressed the smaller tablet market, and have completely dominated it, quelling those fears of cheaper tablets eating into Apple's share. The surface is pretty much a bomb. None of the fear-mongering that was going on came true, they're in the best position anyone can be with their control of the hardware, software, appstore, and entire ecosystem. Apple RIGHT NOW, ignoring the stock, is in the best shape it's EVER been, easily.
The 5 outsold the 4. It's embarrassing for Sammy that a two y.o. Iphone outsold its flagship.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy
And how exactly did Jobs "deal" with Wallstreet? He didn't. He completely ignored them. Cook is much, much friendlier to them. And look how they've rewarded him.
I think this just about hits on it.....the street believed in SJ, believed he had vision.
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-things-changed-for-apple-2013-3
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkell31
I have to laugh at the responses. Perhaps only the Emperor's new clothes posts should be allowed on this site. Wondering how Apple is getting "worse" (and I realize that is relative) consider that the iPad mini blew by the iPad in terms of sales and it carries a lower gross profit per unit. iPhone 4s and 4s' are selling just as well as the 5s because people arent willing to pay for the difference. If your flagship product cant outsell older phones it doesnt bode well for future releases (although it is a nice comment on the quality of the 4s).
With that said it's still a cash cow, but it's going to take some time to find a bottom in terms of EPS drop unless the dividend is raised significantly to support the share price. The good thing is the free cash flow is strong enough to support a 50% increase. However, a failure to raise the dividend this month should be taken as a sign next quarter is going to be bad. I mean it's going to be bad relative to the same quarter last year because of compressed margins, but with lower profit devices unexpectedly making up a larger percentage of overall sales it probably will miss Apple's guidance. When Cook explains they did not forecast 4s, 4s', and minis making up such a large percentage of sales you can all pretend like it is a big surprise because you refuse to acknowledge the obvious.
So if you really are in it for the long haul lets hope the dividend increase comes this month or at least prior to the next earnings release. If not it's going to get rocky...as in 350-360 rocky.
Okay start throwing stones now.
Apple is intentionally limiting its profit growth via its 'good at a few things mantra.' To your point, when you start introducing new products that cannabalize your existing products but they come with lower asp's and lower gm's, that is a big problem for earnings.
Agree its a cash cow and agree EPS likely in big trouble next couple quarters versus a year ago. Writing seems to be on the wall that 2013 is a down year, and have to hope they can rebound in 2014. I think they guide the June qtr well below the Street again, but hopefully they aren't that out of touch with the reality of their business to miss their own guidance this qtr.
Really didn't need to be this way is the problem. Take cash to $150 billion and the stock to $350 and the enterprise value/value of the company is back to 2010 levels, pre-ipad ($328b mkt cap less 150b cash = 178b value of Apple, down 67% from its peak).
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac
I bet that if Apple simply uses the name iPhone 6 instead of iPhone 5S that would create enough buzz to shut the naysayers up. Rightly or wrongly people perceive the S versions as a slight tweak instead of an entirely new phone. It just doesn't seem to get people as excited as a whole number change. It can still be the exact same phone they are planning to release, just change the name and that will make most people happy. Perception is reality after all.
No, sales are reality and the 3GS and 4S sold like crazy — above and beyond their prior incarnations.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123
Send me your email, i'll send you what I have, its not very complex or prettied up at moment is all, I was going to spend some time building it out. I asked for a day to do so, but you would rather not wait. That is fine.
Right, so guys like me that have work with converts or put on bond vs equity trades, vol vs credit, options vs credit and thus have exposure to credit and equity..... you think there are two analysts one that focuses on equity and the other credit? The fact that you are implying that would have to be the case tells me all I need to know about you. Tell me how you buy a convert, short the stock against it (or vice versa) on a neutral hedge and don't care if the stock goes up or down and can still make a ton of money. How does that work? Tell me what you know about merton or kmv models that show credit is nothing more than a derivative of equity volatility (what I meant by vol, which I'm sure you didn't know). Tell me the correlation between the VIX and high yield credit spreads. Tell me the correlation between a single company option vol and its credit default swaps or credit spreads. All these model and correlations exist based on the theory and historical relationships that show equity value is nothing more than a long-term option on the underlying value of a company's assets with a strike price of the company's debt.
But sure, big difference between being a credit and equity analyst. Other than knowing how to read and indenture and credit agreement, no difference between analyzing company fundamentals. None.
Go ahead an google what I'm explaining and respond so you can pretend you have any idea what I just said.
1) I can wait a couple of days. No problem. I don't need to send you my email: you can PM me within AI.
2) Your para 2 just reaffirms what I said earlier: you've got your jargon down. (I would be, however, intrigued to see the empirical evidence on the correlation between VIX and high yield credit spreads; I always thought that was silly trader lore, but I'd love to see a solid academic study on the topic).
3) Regarding credit analysis versus equity analysis: Where and when (and increasingly, I am wondering, why) did you do an MBA!? Just look up Chapter 1 of any basic Finance or Accounting textbook. Actually, let me help help you -- this once (since I found it easily)! Here's Chapter 1 of a well-known Accounting textbook, where you might want to look at pp. 8-9: http://highered.mcgraw-hill.com/sites/dl/free/0073379433/597452/Subramanyam_fsa_sample_Ch01.pdf
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
1) I can wait a couple of days. No problem. I don't need to send you my email: you can PM me within AI.
2) Your para 2 just reaffirms what I said earlier: you've got your jargon down. (I would be, however, intrigued to see the empirical evidence on the correlation between VIX and high yield credit spreads; I always thought that was silly trader lore, but I'd love to see a solid academic study on the topic).
3) Regarding credit analysis versus equity analysis: Where and when (and increasingly, I am wondering, why) did you do an MBA!? Just look up Chapter 1 of any basic Finance or Accounting textbook. Actually, let me help help you -- this once (since I found it easily)! Here's Chapter 1 of a well-known Accounting textbook, where you might want to look at pp. 8-9: http://highered.mcgraw-hill.com/sites/dl/free/0073379433/597452/Subramanyam_fsa_sample_Ch01.pdf
1) No problem
2) The VIX is simply implied vol on the broader equity market (s&p). High yield bond indices are broadly diversified like the s&p, many of the same constituents. Therefore the merton and kmv models that I referenced apply not only to individual companies, but also the market as a whole, so I would point you to those incredibly academic and rigorous model, although I will acknowledge gaussian copula/multivariate distributions are a little complex for anyone not holding an advanced math degree.
3) Not sure I get the point. You can't believe credit analysts can't do equity analysis and vice versa. Happens all day, every day in the real world. MBAs are easy anywhere if you put in the time, so where anyone went is irrelevant, imo. CFA, not so much. What is the point of the link, its basic accounting taught to undergrad students. Reading that and understanding it are too vastly different things. I know a lot of MBAs who can't build a fully functioning model that links IS, CF and BS and actually balances.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123
While everyone around them is getting better, Apple is getting worse. That is going to be the theme until they change it
???
So nothing is going to change until it changes?
Brilliant!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris_CA
???
So nothing is going to change until it changes?
Brilliant!
I love this forum. Nobody wants to add anything intelligent. As I stated I was discussing perception and sentiment.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdnc123
2) The VIX is simply implied vol on the broader equity market (s&p). High yield bond indices are broadly diversified like the s&p, many of the same constituents. Therefore the merton and kmv models that I referenced apply not only to individual companies, but also the market as a whole, so I would point you to those incredibly academic and rigorous model, although I will acknowledge gaussian copula/multivariate distributions are a little complex for anyone not holding an advanced math degree.
3) Not sure I get the point.
2) You didn't even understand the question I asked, did you? (Hint: It was about empirical evidence.)
3) Of course you don't. All you've done here in this forum is show a lot of useless jargon and overconfident bombast. You have little ability to back up a single claim you've made .
Any further conversation with you in this thread is a complete waste of time. (Just be aware that, on AI, you'll be called out for your BS again and again).
Quote:
The analyst has cut his iPhone estimate for the current quarter from 37.5 million to 35 million. He sees the company reporting revenues of $41 billion, but gives 25 percent "probability" that Apple will miss its guidance due to sales slowing even further in the second half of March.
So 75 perent probability that Apple will NOT miss its guidance?
Apple is at the mercy of carriers, whether they want to pay $450 subsidy, or $350 like they do with almost everyone else. If the iPhone 5S were to cost $299 with a 2 year contract, people would definitely look at that vs. the S4, or they would even compare it to the Note 2. Hell I think they would go as far as to look at a Nexus 4, $299 NO CONTRACT.
That's the real problem, Apple is riding on the "We're the best and everyone wants our product" gravy train, and people are realizing that strategy won't last forever.
The 5 is $200/300 with a 2y contract. It hasn't hurt Apple at all. I also think its the other way around. Apple isn't at the mercy of carriers. Do you think they want to subsidize the iPhone that much? The know people want the iPhone. They are going to offer it or lose subscribers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
2) You didn't even understand the question I asked, did you? (Hint: It was about empirical evidence.)
3) Of course you don't. All you've done here in this forum is show a lot of useless jargon and overconfident bombast. You have little ability to back up a single claim you've made .
Any further conversation with you in this thread is a complete waste of time. (Just be aware that, on AI, you'll be called out for your BS again and again).
Useless jargon? I wasn't the one referencing textbooks and throwing out terminal value, etc. I am using jargon that people who invest more in the real world use. I'm not surprised you can't or don't answer my questions as many of the answers can't be found in a textbook or via a google search, so you are at a loss. You actually have to do it, not read about it to have a clue. You don't need an empirical study to know equity volatility and credit spreads are linked, it is common sense if you have full grasp of balance sheets, and what volatility means.
I agree further conversation with you is a waste of time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit
Then why are Samsung's sales growing.
Samsung's sales of the S3 dropped from 18 million in the September quarter down to 15.4 million in the December (Christmas!) quarter.
deleted
Both can be right. The iPhone 5 outsold every other model with the 4 in 2nd. Combined I'm sure Sammy out shipped Apple with its 50 models. If Sammy actually reported numbers, this could be settled real quick.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Plagen
I don't understand why people are so unhappy with the lowballing "analysts". If you are a long-term investor and have a reason to believe in your company long-term growth shouldn't you be happy with the stock price falling? Just use that as an opportunity to buy.
Without going onto this particular analyst's opinion, I think the risk in what you're saying is that if a stock is not participating when the market is moving up, then it may fall that much more when/if it goes down. Now that would likely be a shorter term concern. And I understand your point about the longer term. But one concern I've read about Apple is that if it becomes a value stock instead of a growth stock, then one might have the opportunity to buy "low" for years... like MSFT.
Personally, I think Apple is set to regain its mojo over the next couple of quarters. Assuming its next couple of product releases are successful, I think the market sentiment, which is really what's beating the stock price down, should turn positive again. I don't want it to soar. Just regain its presence in the $550-$600 range.
But with that said, I am not at all happy with Cook or how he's handled himself over the past six months or so. My unhappiness is not that he has lost focus. But he has done little to contain that criticism. From the Maps debacle, to the iMac shipping issues, to the public spat with Einhorn, to now facing the possibility that iPhone shipments are a little shaky, if not handled properly, these sorts of PR mud puddles can help sentiment remain negative. And then one finds himself seeing Steve Ballmer's face when he looks in the mirror in the morning. But I suspect the frightening prospect of that nightmare should be enough to get Cook to right the ship ASAP.