The media needs to invent a reason for Apple’s spectacular drop.
The reason is the media. Well them and the analysts and the BS spewing. They need their hits so they will post anything in their blogs etc. even if it is total nonsense. And then when some fake product doesn't happen or the sales numbers don't match their far fetched junk they make up fake reasons for it rather than admit they were wrong.
I am sure you think so. But I happen to think that the market is neither stupid nor naive. It is simply reacting to lack of credible, believable information. At this point, it appears confused -- rightly or wrongly (and I happen to think, wrongly) about Apple's future prospects.
If Apple does not control the information flow about its performance, the information flow will control it.
As has already happened. A lot of people dismiss the ~$290B in market cap as paper wealth losses or might be happy to revel in the schadenfreude: but it is people's retirement wealth, savings for kids' college education, endowment holdings of non-profits and charities, and nest eggs for that next home improvement project. The wealth consequences -- and hence, the reputational consequences -- are real.
With all due respect, if people have their retirement savings and kids college funds tied up in tech stock, then they are fucking morons. History has shown the extreme unpredictability of these stocks.
The reason is the media. Well them and the analysts and the BS spewing. They need their hits so they will post anything in their blogs etc. even if it is total nonsense. And then when some fake product doesn't happen or the sales numbers don't match their far fetched junk they make up fake reasons for it rather than admit they were wrong.
Funny how you all love whenever Apple lies or misdirects the competition, but don't quite like it when the lies or misdirection affects Apple.
1) Prove it. At least show me the unit numbers for the iPhone and iPad for the previous quarter results and the year before. If what you say is true then there will a minor change in the percentage of units sales YoY.
2) Deep discount? Because you think that selling more units means the stock will automatically go up? Look at their history (see point 1) and you'll see that despite breakneck sales and beating their own estimates the stock has gone both up and down.
1) The fact they went from unable to meet supply to having an 8? (might have been 6 and I dont feel like looking up the call) week back log in the pipeline in 3 months tells me all I need to know about sales and which direction they were headed.
2) At this price if they beat on revenue and earnings the stock will without a doubt jump 10-15%, and my guess would trend upwards assuming guidance wasnt completely awful. If you are telling me it's been at a 9 PE and didnt go up on a top and bottom line beat that would be news to me. Why you would compare it to results at a different multiple, which is apparently what you are doing, is beyond me.
With all due respect, if people have their retirement savings and kids college funds tied up in tech stock, then they are fucking morons. History has shown the extreme unpredictability of these stocks.
Apple's portion of the overall Nasdaq is 12%. Many people have reasonably diversified Mutual Funds that include some AAPL or even just some Nasdaq and when AAPL is down it can pull those funds and the whole market down as well.
I am sure you think so. But I happen to think that the market is neither stupid nor naive. It is simply reacting to lack of credible, believable information. At this point, it appears confused -- rightly or wrongly (and I happen to think, wrongly) about Apple's future prospects.
If Apple does not control the information flow about its performance, the information flow will control it.
As has already happened. A lot of people dismiss the ~$290B in market cap as paper wealth losses or might be happy to revel in the schadenfreude: but it is people's retirement wealth, savings for kids' college education, endowment holdings of non-profits and charities, and nest eggs for that next home improvement project. The wealth consequences -- and hence, the reputational consequences -- are real.
You're pretty much right on. Being a CEO at Apple requires a performer, in several senses of the word. They need both a person who is decisive and acts to continuously "guide" the story of Apple. They are like a stage actor... which is essentially the same function of the US president. Be confident. Tell the company's story. Fight for the company when necessary.
Just curious: do you guys think it will rebound tomorrow or continue to slide?
After hours is REALLY flat so barring any significant events overnight it looks like a flat open, but since tomorrow is in the future that is only a wild guess.
I mainly said it because Iger will soon be leaving Disney and he got along great with Steve (not to mention Iger is also on the Apple Board).
When he took over at Apple in 2005, the stock was in the mid-$20s. Now it's selling at over $60. The stock swooned a bit during the recession (to ~$16), but since then, it has been on a fairly steady upwards trajectory.
People seem to view him as a very effective CEO. He has managed the Pixar integration very well, and many analysts seem to think that Disney has its mojo back -- something that it had seriously lost during the disastrous Eisner era.
If by investor you mean those that buy a stock wanting it to go up in price in a few months time so they can make a profit, yes.
That massive drop we saw was more about the profit seekers selling cause they figured it was as high as it would go for the moment so they make what money they can and then when the stock is crazy low again they start over.
A drop from a high of $705 to $397 today in such a short amount of time is extreme. I used to be a big Tim Cook supporter but he seems more suited to his former job than CEO.
What would you call a rise from $360 to $634 in 4 months and what would you claim about the CEO's performance at the time?
short of a brand new product line with the success of the iPad or massively increased sales for current product lines like the iPhone which generates more than 50% of their revenue I don't see the stock breaking $500 again anytime soon.
What new product would you like that has the same 100m+/year sales potential as the iPad? How can they increase iPhone revenues without lowering the price?
do you guys think it will rebound tomorrow or continue to slide?
Nobody will be able to tell when it will bounce back but it will bounce back eventually. Apple hasn't stopped selling products so eventually it will hit a price that is so low that people will want to buy and up it will go. Then Apple will have new products in the second half of the year and news will be more positive. It will swing up and down as time goes on and it will most likely stabilise around a certain range.
With all due respect, if people have their retirement savings and kids college funds tied up in tech stock, then they are fucking morons. History has shown the extreme unpredictability of these stocks.
Not always true. Certainly not true if you're executing your strategy well, and communicating clearly with shareholders. Look at Google's price path during the past decade; or IBM's; or Qualcomm's.
Surely there will be hiccups, perhaps more so in tech, but what's happened with AAPL since last Sept is quite astounding, really. Especially when the rest of the market has been doing so well.
Cook et. al are unknown quantities. They have to make their case to the market. The market needs to get a sense of who they are, what they stand for, and what their strategy is, going forward. Not platitudes like "we have an amazing pipeline."
The irony is that if Apple would to change their decade or so long practice of not preannouncing etc, many would spin it to say they are talking because they are scared. They need to tell everyone what they are planning to 'beat' the other boys to the market because of they wait everyone will buy whatever. Blah blah blah.
Just curious: do you guys think it will rebound tomorrow or continue to slide?
Rebound about 50% of the drop. Maybe that is optimistic, but I put in a options "bet" buying the 400s and selling the $415s. If it drops again I will do the same thing at reduced levels, if it is flat I will buy it back at a slight loss, and if it goes up as expected I will pocket the roughly 280% gain. I'm pretty optimistic they will increase the dividend in May so I want to capture that with another bull call spread, but I dont think earnings will be good so leaning towards doing it after they announce.
Wait for the earnings. I got out of Apple and brought Intel and Tesla (and have done pretty well so far). I'm going to reevaluate Apple after the 23rd. If they announce a div hike or additional buyback, then it'll be time to buy.
Also bought Tesla a while ago.... Doing well... It is one of the most shorted stocks on nasdaq the smart short sellers are starting to tip toe to the door (great sign...)
it is my greatest investment dream that Apple buys Tesla. This gives them almost unlimited growth potential for the next 20 years and the ability to own a completely new market....
I use a simple approach to these kind of stocks. I decide up front how much I am willing to lose on my bet (Yes all stocks are a bet). I buy the stock and put in my panic limit sell order and watch what happens... I generally win more often than I lose. It is the ONLY gamble where you have at least a 50% chance to win....
You guy can rag me later if I lose...
However, if all else fails, listen to the "Experts" on CNN, MSNBC, FOX, Bloomburg, etc.... DO THE EXACT OPPSITE... you win most of the time...
Comments
The reason is the media. Well them and the analysts and the BS spewing. They need their hits so they will post anything in their blogs etc. even if it is total nonsense. And then when some fake product doesn't happen or the sales numbers don't match their far fetched junk they make up fake reasons for it rather than admit they were wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
This is actually not a bad idea at all!
I mainly said it because Iger will soon be leaving Disney and he got along great with Steve (not to mention Iger is also on the Apple Board).
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
I am sure you think so. But I happen to think that the market is neither stupid nor naive. It is simply reacting to lack of credible, believable information. At this point, it appears confused -- rightly or wrongly (and I happen to think, wrongly) about Apple's future prospects.
If Apple does not control the information flow about its performance, the information flow will control it.
As has already happened. A lot of people dismiss the ~$290B in market cap as paper wealth losses or might be happy to revel in the schadenfreude: but it is people's retirement wealth, savings for kids' college education, endowment holdings of non-profits and charities, and nest eggs for that next home improvement project. The wealth consequences -- and hence, the reputational consequences -- are real.
With all due respect, if people have their retirement savings and kids college funds tied up in tech stock, then they are fucking morons. History has shown the extreme unpredictability of these stocks.
Funny how you all love whenever Apple lies or misdirects the competition, but don't quite like it when the lies or misdirection affects Apple.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
1) Prove it. At least show me the unit numbers for the iPhone and iPad for the previous quarter results and the year before. If what you say is true then there will a minor change in the percentage of units sales YoY.
2) Deep discount? Because you think that selling more units means the stock will automatically go up? Look at their history (see point 1) and you'll see that despite breakneck sales and beating their own estimates the stock has gone both up and down.
1) The fact they went from unable to meet supply to having an 8? (might have been 6 and I dont feel like looking up the call) week back log in the pipeline in 3 months tells me all I need to know about sales and which direction they were headed.
2) At this price if they beat on revenue and earnings the stock will without a doubt jump 10-15%, and my guess would trend upwards assuming guidance wasnt completely awful. If you are telling me it's been at a 9 PE and didnt go up on a top and bottom line beat that would be news to me. Why you would compare it to results at a different multiple, which is apparently what you are doing, is beyond me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy
With all due respect, if people have their retirement savings and kids college funds tied up in tech stock, then they are fucking morons. History has shown the extreme unpredictability of these stocks.
Apple's portion of the overall Nasdaq is 12%. Many people have reasonably diversified Mutual Funds that include some AAPL or even just some Nasdaq and when AAPL is down it can pull those funds and the whole market down as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
I am sure you think so. But I happen to think that the market is neither stupid nor naive. It is simply reacting to lack of credible, believable information. At this point, it appears confused -- rightly or wrongly (and I happen to think, wrongly) about Apple's future prospects.
If Apple does not control the information flow about its performance, the information flow will control it.
As has already happened. A lot of people dismiss the ~$290B in market cap as paper wealth losses or might be happy to revel in the schadenfreude: but it is people's retirement wealth, savings for kids' college education, endowment holdings of non-profits and charities, and nest eggs for that next home improvement project. The wealth consequences -- and hence, the reputational consequences -- are real.
You're pretty much right on. Being a CEO at Apple requires a performer, in several senses of the word. They need both a person who is decisive and acts to continuously "guide" the story of Apple. They are like a stage actor... which is essentially the same function of the US president. Be confident. Tell the company's story. Fight for the company when necessary.
Quote:
Originally Posted by majjo
Just curious: do you guys think it will rebound tomorrow or continue to slide?
If we really knew, do you think we'd be sitting here instead of capitalizing on that information?
I believe it will bottom when Tim Cook starts doing something to stop the fall.
Quote:
Originally Posted by majjo
Just curious: do you guys think it will rebound tomorrow or continue to slide?
After hours is REALLY flat so barring any significant events overnight it looks like a flat open, but since tomorrow is in the future that is only a wild guess.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
This is actually not a bad idea at all!
I mainly said it because Iger will soon be leaving Disney and he got along great with Steve (not to mention Iger is also on the Apple Board).
When he took over at Apple in 2005, the stock was in the mid-$20s. Now it's selling at over $60. The stock swooned a bit during the recession (to ~$16), but since then, it has been on a fairly steady upwards trajectory.
People seem to view him as a very effective CEO. He has managed the Pixar integration very well, and many analysts seem to think that Disney has its mojo back -- something that it had seriously lost during the disastrous Eisner era.
If by investor you mean those that buy a stock wanting it to go up in price in a few months time so they can make a profit, yes.
That massive drop we saw was more about the profit seekers selling cause they figured it was as high as it would go for the moment so they make what money they can and then when the stock is crazy low again they start over.
What would you call a rise from $360 to $634 in 4 months and what would you claim about the CEO's performance at the time?
What new product would you like that has the same 100m+/year sales potential as the iPad? How can they increase iPhone revenues without lowering the price?
Nobody will be able to tell when it will bounce back but it will bounce back eventually. Apple hasn't stopped selling products so eventually it will hit a price that is so low that people will want to buy and up it will go. Then Apple will have new products in the second half of the year and news will be more positive. It will swing up and down as time goes on and it will most likely stabilise around a certain range.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy
With all due respect, if people have their retirement savings and kids college funds tied up in tech stock, then they are fucking morons. History has shown the extreme unpredictability of these stocks.
Not always true. Certainly not true if you're executing your strategy well, and communicating clearly with shareholders. Look at Google's price path during the past decade; or IBM's; or Qualcomm's.
Surely there will be hiccups, perhaps more so in tech, but what's happened with AAPL since last Sept is quite astounding, really. Especially when the rest of the market has been doing so well.
The irony is that if Apple would to change their decade or so long practice of not preannouncing etc, many would spin it to say they are talking because they are scared. They need to tell everyone what they are planning to 'beat' the other boys to the market because of they wait everyone will buy whatever. Blah blah blah.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pfisher
Ah, great post.
Apple is missing a tech visionary. Tim Cook is not a visionary.
No vision, no go.
Insanely great is now gone and the next insanely great leader for Apple needs to be found.
A tech leader and not a manager, like Tim. Although you need both.
Elon Musk? Imagine what Apple(cash)+Tesla+SpaceX could build together!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by majjo
Just curious: do you guys think it will rebound tomorrow or continue to slide?
Rebound about 50% of the drop. Maybe that is optimistic, but I put in a options "bet" buying the 400s and selling the $415s. If it drops again I will do the same thing at reduced levels, if it is flat I will buy it back at a slight loss, and if it goes up as expected I will pocket the roughly 280% gain. I'm pretty optimistic they will increase the dividend in May so I want to capture that with another bull call spread, but I dont think earnings will be good so leaning towards doing it after they announce.
Anyone mention Wolfson?
I think they are taking market share away from Cirrus' Apple account.
Quote:
Originally Posted by majjo
Wait for the earnings. I got out of Apple and brought Intel and Tesla (and have done pretty well so far). I'm going to reevaluate Apple after the 23rd. If they announce a div hike or additional buyback, then it'll be time to buy.
Also bought Tesla a while ago.... Doing well... It is one of the most shorted stocks on nasdaq the smart short sellers are starting to tip toe to the door (great sign...)
it is my greatest investment dream that Apple buys Tesla. This gives them almost unlimited growth potential for the next 20 years and the ability to own a completely new market....
I use a simple approach to these kind of stocks. I decide up front how much I am willing to lose on my bet (Yes all stocks are a bet). I buy the stock and put in my panic limit sell order and watch what happens... I generally win more often than I lose. It is the ONLY gamble where you have at least a 50% chance to win....
You guy can rag me later if I lose...
However, if all else fails, listen to the "Experts" on CNN, MSNBC, FOX, Bloomburg, etc.... DO THE EXACT OPPSITE... you win most of the time...