'iPhone Lite' on track for early Sept., but 'iPhone 5S' production more challenging

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 89

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by allenbf View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post



    Really?



    Care to point us to cites that show he called "...every single product and launch timeline last year"?




    Pull up the past articles. In particular, look at his predictions from January 2012 and his timeline. Not being snarky but I'm not going to read for you.



    I didn't say he's the next Jesus. I said he's more accurate than most and I trust his predictions for the most part.



    That ok or am I not allowed to post my opinion?


    No one's going to bother, and you know that.


     


    Color me surprised -- or perhaps not -- that someone who's so seemingly sure of this guy's predictive abilities doesn't have the data/cites/links handy.

  • Reply 42 of 89
    pendergastpendergast Posts: 1,358member


    Weren't most of the production issues on the iPhone 5 because of the case?


     


    If so, and assuming the 5S continues the tradition of using the same case design, why would there be the same issues?


     


    Either he's a moron, or his has inside info that the 5S (or just "iPhone S (late 2013)", paired with the plastic "iPhone (late 2013)") will in fact have a different case design. 

  • Reply 43 of 89
    andysolandysol Posts: 2,506member


    duplicate

  • Reply 44 of 89
    If you care enough to harass people about Ming Chi Kuo's pretty damn sparkling record (relatively speaking), then you should be bothered to care enough to pay attention when he's got something to say -- which AppleInsider, a site of whcih you're a prolific member, incessantly posts about. When everyone, including the normally impeccably sourced Bloomberg said apple would release a watch device within the year, it was Kuo, who said to expect it late next year. He's right about that so far. There will be no watch this year.
  • Reply 45 of 89
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,385member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post



    "Marginally cheaper, comes in colours." Is just not going to do anything.



    If the "cheap" iPhone is anywhere near these price estimates, then it won't be cheap and it won't be successful. Six months after launch you can often get discounts on the new iPhone that put it in the same range as this "cheap" one.



    They need to go for volume, and thus they need to actually go "cheap," as in free on contract and 200-300 off contract.


     


    An iPhone $200 off contract? I mean, do you even fucking believe what you're saying? Even Google can't afford to sell a phone for less than $300 off contract, when it's subsidizing the phone, and when it doesn't care about hardware profit, and when the phone is 8GB and doesn't even have LTE. I mean, come on. I'd love a $5 iPhone off contract, and so would everyone else, but that doesn't mean I'm gonna say that Apple "needs" to do that because it's just as unrealistic as your demand in terms of the economics. Apple is not about to lose money or break even on hardware, nor should they. Must be fun to live in this fantasy land of yours where you can just pull out some fantasy prices that have no grounding in history or reality and then demand that it be done, or else Apple is incompetent. 

  • Reply 46 of 89
    mikejonesmikejones Posts: 323member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AndrewofArabia View Post



    If you care enough to harass people about Ming Chi Kuo's pretty damn sparkling record (relatively speaking)


    Love the weasel wording with the "relatively speaking". It's not hard to have a relatively sparkling record when everyone else is almost always wrong. Constantly pushing out release dates over and over again when your previous predicted date was wrong does not a "damn sparkling record" make. It just means he has no clue and will just keep pushing out dates until he might be right.

  • Reply 47 of 89
    gwmacgwmac Posts: 1,807member


    Who cares what this analyst said or how accurate his predictions were in the past? Anyone that has followed Apple and can see logic knows this makes perfect sense. Apple will introduce a $449  iPhone in multiple colors that will probably sell for free or zero on contract. I am surprised people actually think this won't happen. 

  • Reply 48 of 89
    mikejonesmikejones Posts: 323member




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by gwmac View Post


    Who cares what this analyst said or how accurate his predictions were in the past?


     





    Anyone with a brain?



    Quote:

    Originally Posted by gwmac View Post


    Anyone that has followed Apple and can see logic knows this makes perfect sense. Apple will introduce a $449  iPhone in multiple colors that will probably sell for free or zero on contract. I am surprised people actually think this won't happen. 




    And why exactly does it make perfect sense? Do you have an actual argument or evidence? Otherwise you are simply begging the question.

  • Reply 49 of 89
    andysolandysol Posts: 2,506member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AndrewofArabia View Post



    If you care enough to harass people about Ming Chi Kuo's pretty damn sparkling record (relatively speaking)


    Good point.


     


    Let's review  just one of his predictions.


    -In late 2012 He said there would be Redesigned iPad 5 w/ thinner bezel for 1st quarter of 2013. He has since moved it to 3rd/4th quarter.  Just moving the date, he will be right eventually.  I got news for you man- that's not a sparkling record- that's par for the course from every analyst out there.


     


    My sources say the next iPhone will come out in September or October, and there will be an iPad and iPad mini refresh in 2014.  See?  It's easy.

  • Reply 50 of 89
    mikejonesmikejones Posts: 323member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Andysol View Post


    Good point.


     


    Let's review  just one of his predictions.


    -In late 2012 He said there would be Redesigned iPad 5 w/ thinner bezel for 1st quarter of 2013. He has since moved it to 3rd/4th quarter.  Just moving the date, he will be right eventually.  I got news for you man- that's not a sparkling record- that's par for the course from every analyst out there.


     


    My sources say the next iPhone will come out in September or October, and there will be an iPad and iPad mini refresh in 2014.  See?  It's easy.



    Where can I subscribe to your newsletter? I'll pay whatever you want. Take my money, NOW!!!!!

  • Reply 51 of 89
    gwmacgwmac Posts: 1,807member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MikeJones View Post




     


    Anyone with a brain?


     


    And why exactly does it make perfect sense? Do you have an actual argument or evidence? Otherwise you are simply begging the question.



    I already explained my reasons in post #30

  • Reply 52 of 89
    mikejonesmikejones Posts: 323member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by gwmac View Post


    I already explained my reasons in post #30



    None of that addresses why "Apple will introduce a $449 iPhone in multiple colors that will probably sell for free or zero on contract". You state no actual reason why they would do "iPhones with multiple colors for free on contract".


     


    Quote:


    I think $450 could work and perhaps the $550 price is just the one with larger storage.  All new iPhone base models start at about $650 so this would be $200 cheaper. This could allow carriers to offer it for free or possibly $100 with a subsidy. A brand new Apple iPhone for $450 is still close enough to mid-tier levels that it could sell very well. 



     


    You then go on about having one connector, the rumors about delays and then something about having 1 SKU. Care to point out where you address what you stated in the post I quoted?

  • Reply 53 of 89
    Timing notwithstanding, he has a very strong track record. He's clearly not just blindly making stuff up. He has real sources in Apple's supply chain. Even Jim Dalrymple has acknowledged this. He's often particularly accurate when it comes to specs in future products. He also accurately predicted the supply constraints of the iMac months in advance. I'm not saying what he's publishing matters, but you're very wrong if you're just totally dismissing what he says on the grounds that he's just another analyst. He's not. And why the vitriol with you doofuses? Does it make you feel good to dismiss analysts?
  • Reply 54 of 89
    gwmacgwmac Posts: 1,807member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MikeJones View Post


    None of that addresses why "Apple will introduce a $449 iPhone in multiple colors that will probably sell for free or zero on contract". You simply state that they could do this or that not an actual reason why they would do that.


     


     


    Care to point out where you address what you stated in the post I quoted?


     



    They will introduce a variety of colors for the same reason they did so with the iPod touch. 


     


    I most certainly did explain several reasons. I pointed out they wanted to ditch 3.5" with the 4S and standardize on 4" and lightning. I also said that thanks to the new Qualcomm front end which it will likely include they will no longer need to make 4 versions of the 4S or 5 which will result in a huge cost savings with fewer skus. This will also open the iPhone lite to over 200 carriers where the 4S and 5 will not function. I would think about 2 billion potential new customers is reason enough.  I also said it will allow less confusion and a clear demarcation between the premium and consumer lines of iPhones far better than selling previous year models. I could also add that people like to buy a new model not one from a previous year which is why you can get a big discount on a 2013 model car once the 2014 ones are released even if they are identical with no changes. Now you may not like my reasons or may disagree with all of them, but don't pretend I didn't defend my position. 


     


    Here are my predictions


     


    16GB iPhone lite Free on contract / $449 off contract


    32GB iPhone lite $99 on contract / $549 off contract


     


    32GB iPhone $199/$649


    64GB iPhone $299/749


    128GB iPhone $399/849


     


     


    That would allow Apple to have a phone from free to $849 and at every $100 price point in between. Simple, logical, and very much the way Apple has always operated.

  • Reply 55 of 89
    andysol wrote: »
    Good point.

    Let's review  just one of his predictions.
    -In late 2012 He said there would be Redesigned iPad 5 w/ thinner bezel for 1st quarter of 2013. He has since moved it to 3rd/4th quarter.  Just moving the date, he will be right eventually.  I got news for you man- that's not a sparkling record- that's par for the course from every analyst out there.

    My sources say the next iPhone will come out in September or October, and there will be an iPad and iPad mini refresh in 2014.  See?  It's easy.

    Keep in mind that John Gruber, a genuine Apple insider with impeccable sources, also hinted that an ipad 5 release in that time frame was possible. Apple makes plans for certain dates and pushes it back sometimes, you can't fault an otherwise accurate analyst for getting timing wrong sometimes. It might be easy to predict some device releases when stuff gets to be predictable (such as the fall release schedule), but he's announced all sorts of supply chain constraints, shipment volumes, and specifications for unreleased stuff with pretty excellent accuracy.
  • Reply 56 of 89
    mikejonesmikejones Posts: 323member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AndrewofArabia View Post



    Timing notwithstanding, he has a very strong track record.


    Then prove it. Simply repeating this assertion is not proof.

  • Reply 57 of 89
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member
    mikejones wrote: »
    Then prove it. Simply repeating this assertion is not proof.

    Of course it is. That's how the analysts do it, after all. Just say it often enough and eventually you'll be right, unless Apple NEVER does what you claim, in which case you just delete those articles from your website so no one ever knows.
  • Reply 58 of 89
    allenbfallenbf Posts: 993member
    No one's going to bother, and you know that.

    Color me surprised -- or perhaps not -- that someone who's so seemingly sure of this guy's predictive abilities doesn't have the data/cites/links handy.

    Your opinion is noted and appreciated. I'm not digging through articles for you, though. Time will tell.
  • Reply 59 of 89
    mikejonesmikejones Posts: 323member


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by gwmac View Post


    They will introduce a variety of colors for the same reason they did so with the iPod touch. 


     





    Why? Because you say so?


     



    Quote:

    Originally Posted by gwmac View Post


    I most certainly did explain several reasons. I pointed out they wanted to ditch 3.5" with the 4S and standardize on 4" and lightning. I also said that thanks to the new Qualcomm front end which it will likely include they will no longer need to make 4 versions of the 4S or 5 which will result in a huge cost savings with fewer skus. This will also open the iPhone lite to over 200 carriers where the 4S and 5 will not function. I would think about 2 billion potential new customers is reason enough.  I also said it will allow less confusion and a clear demarcation between the premium and consumer lines of iPhones far better than selling previous year models. I could also add that people like to buy a new model not one from a previous year which is why you can get a big discount on a 2013 model car once the 2014 ones are released even if they are identical with no changes. Now you may not like my reasons or may disagree with all of them, but don't pretend I didn't defend my position. 


     




    And why do any of those reasons translate into "iPhones with multiple colors"? What does the connector, the Qualcomm front end, or the number of SKUs have at all to do with having multiple case colors?

  • Reply 60 of 89
    mikejonesmikejones Posts: 323member


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AndrewofArabia View Post





    Keep in mind that John Gruber, a genuine Apple insider with impeccable sources, also hinted that an ipad 5 release in that time frame was possible.


     


    Maybe because it's a completely duh statement? Wow, he and other people state that they will release a new iPad at around the same time they've released nearly every other updated version! OMG! STOP THE PRESSES!!!



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