Earnings preview: Modest expectations for Apple's June 2013 quarter

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
As anticipation grows for Apple's next-generation iPhones and iPads, analysts aren't expecting much this afternoon, when the company will announce the results of its recently concluded June quarter.

Berlin


With 44 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, the average estimates for the June quarter call for $35.01 billion in revenue. That would be about flat from a year ago, when sales were $35.02 billion.

But earnings per share are expected to see a sharp decline from the year-ago quarter, from $9.32 in 2012 to an average estimate of $7.32 for June 2013.

As for specific product sales, RBC Capital Markets pegs Wall Street as expecting Apple to have sold 26.1 million iPhones in the June quarter. Like with the market's expected revenue, that number would be about flat year over year.

Investors also expect sales of 17.4 million iPads for the three-month period, a slight increase from the 17 million iPads Apple sold a year ago.

Averaged estimates also call for sales of 3.9 million Macs and 4.9 million iPods. Gross margin is expected to be about 36.7 percent.

Looking forward to the September quarter, RBC's Amit Daryanani expects Apple will offer guidance slightly below Wall Street expectations, with forecasted revenue of $36 billion and earnings per share of $7.50. He believes investors hope to see guidance of $37.9 billion in revenue and $8.12 earnings per share for the September frame.

Investors generally expect that Apple will launch multiple new iPhones toward the end of the September quarter. The company is rumored to be planning both a high end "iPhone 5S" and a new mid-range plastic "iPhone Lite" for launch in the coming months.

If those handsets were to go on sale in September, about a year after the debut of the iPhone 5, it's unlikely that the products would play a significant role in the launch quarter. Instead, the full effect of those launches would be seen in the following December quarter, where the iPhones would be available for the full three months.

Apple will report its results for the concluded June quarter and current September quarter after markets close this afternoon, and a conference call with company executives is scheduled for 5 p.m. Eastern, 2 p.m. Pacific. AppleInsider will have full, live coverage.
«13

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 43
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member
    [QUOTE]…the average estimates for the June quarter call for $35.01 billion in revenue.[/QUOTE]

    One more time: so when Apple posts $35.00 billion, the stock will drop 40 points.
  • Reply 2 of 43
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,227member


    I am expecting a beat on iphone sales, a miss on ipad sales and a beat on EPS on massive buybacks. I am keeping cash in case of a major drop but I am going in with shares in one account and options leaps in the other.


     


    Last year we had the new ipad 3 for this quarter, being flat this year on ipads would be great news.

  • Reply 3 of 43

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post




    Berlin



    Oh God, the stores are empty, no one is buying, Apple is doomed! /s

  • Reply 4 of 43

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by herbapou View Post


    Last year we had the new ipad 3 for this quarter, being flat this year on ipads would be great news.



    Excellent observation.

  • Reply 5 of 43
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,227member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Excellent observation.



     


    Looks like the analysts are very bullish on ipad mini sales to compensate for the lack of a new ipad. Thats the only bullish estimate they made.

  • Reply 6 of 43
    tbelltbell Posts: 3,146member
    It would be nice for an article like this to tell us what Apple's guidance is in relation to the so called analysts. My guess is analysts are at the high end of Apple's guidance range, which if so, is not modest.
  • Reply 7 of 43
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member
    tbell wrote: »
    It would be nice for an article like this to tell us what Apple's guidance is in relation to the so called analysts. My guess is analysts are at the high end of Apple's guidance range, which if so, is not modest.

    Well, it IS their drummed-up device. They're the ones who thought Apple "needed" it in the first place, so of course they think it will succeed.
  • Reply 8 of 43
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,227member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post





    One more time: so when Apple posts $35.00 billion, the stock will drop 40 points.


     


    Assuming Apple meets estimates, guidance is going to be a key factor on price movement.


    IF they miss those lowball estimates, the stock will drop hard because that would meen the YoY decline is very severe. We already have a YoY estimate decline of 25%, doing even worst is almost unthinkable and not price in at all.

  • Reply 9 of 43
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member


    Wouldn't 'meh' numbers already be priced in to the stock?  So really we should only see a big swing if the numbers are much better/worse than the consensus.  Of course Wall Street is never rational when it comes to Apple so if they post numbers that everyone is expecting the stock will probably still tank after hours.

  • Reply 10 of 43
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,227member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by TBell View Post



    It would be nice for an article like this to tell us what Apple's guidance is in relation to the so called analysts. My guess is analysts are at the high end of Apple's guidance range, which if so, is not modest.


     


    They are at the high end on revenue, but estimates on margins are low, so EPS is low at 25% YoY decline. Apple did not provide EPS guidance.

  • Reply 11 of 43
    Why the picture of an empty Apple store? LOL. 33.5 - 35.5 billion dollars is an insane amount of money. I happen to think apple is going to beat their own guidance by a good amount, I think some of the carrier promotions are helping sell a lot more iPhones than Apple and analysts are expecting, if Verizon's earnings are any indication (and they are).
  • Reply 12 of 43
    originalgoriginalg Posts: 383member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by TBell View Post



    It would be nice for an article like this to tell us what Apple's guidance is in relation to the so called analysts. My guess is analysts are at the high end of Apple's guidance range, which if so, is not modest.




  • Reply 13 of 43
    pendergastpendergast Posts: 1,358member


    If you squint, you can already see the trolls massing together at the horizon. Brace yourselves.

  • Reply 14 of 43

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by herbapou View Post


     


    Assuming Apple meets estimates, guidance is going to be a key factor on price movement..



     


    This. Even the strongest Apple stock bulls expected this to a 'meh' quarter which is why the stock is where it is. Even if Apple were to come in a little lower, it won't matter, the guidance will be the key, as will any hints on when new products can be expected. That's where the 'news' is for the Street. 

  • Reply 15 of 43
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,309member


    I love how "meh, not expecting much" is tantamount to sales/revenue/profit that will probably be some of the largest in corporate history, ever, and utterly decimating that of all the other major software/tech companies. 


     


    But hey, it's Apple, so "meh" indeed. 

  • Reply 16 of 43
    No "Fire Timmy Cook" trolls yet?
  • Reply 17 of 43
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,251member
    One more time: so when Apple posts $35.00 billion, the stock will drop 40 points.

    Let's face it, if Apple reported $135 billion the stock would drop also, because the 'Law of Large Numbers' was at play. :no:
  • Reply 18 of 43


    I hope that the situation of the stock won't make us flabbergasted after the preview. A new precipitous drop in the stock will be excruciating for both the board of Apple and us. However I really abominate the idea that Tim Cook must be expelled. I find him good as a CEO so far.

  • Reply 19 of 43
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,251member
    slurpy wrote: »
    I love how "meh, not expecting much" is tantamount to sales/revenue/profit that will probably be some of the largest in corporate history, ever, and utterly decimating that of all the other major software/tech companies. 

    But hey, it's Apple, so "meh" indeed. 

    Exactly. In fact, every tech / software CEO is wishing he/she could report such a 'meh' quarter ... along with the rest of the stuff like, oh I don't know, perhaps the money in the bank, customer satisfaction, P/E ratio ...
  • Reply 20 of 43
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,251member
    I hope that the situation of the stock won't make us flabbergasted after the preview. A new precipitous drop in the stock will be excruciating for both the board of Apple and us.

    I have the vodka close at hand ...
Sign In or Register to comment.