80% of reduced iPad shipments attributable to channel inventory decline

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 88
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    There has always been a minority group of us repeatedly explaining that Apple reports shipments and not sales. We have repeatedly stated that the shipped v. sales argument was moot. But we were bashed, stomped and ridiculed as Android fans. 
    Whether its shipped or sold, who besides Apple reports figures on a quarterly basis? It seems other companies like Samsung only do it when they feel like it and for certain products.
  • Reply 22 of 88
    geekdadgeekdad Posts: 1,131member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post


    There has always been a minority group of us repeatedly explaining that Apple reports shipments and not sales. We have repeatedly stated that the shipped v. sales argument was moot. But we were bashed, stomped and ridiculed as Android fans. 



    I know...count me as one of the group. I believe a shipped item is a sale.........

  • Reply 23 of 88
    geekdadgeekdad Posts: 1,131member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    Whether its shipped or sold, who besides Apple reports figures on a quarterly basis? It seems other companies like Samsung only do it when they feel like it and for certain products.


    Really? Do you have data to back that up? I seem to recall AI reporting on Samsung quarterly reports of shipped items.....

  • Reply 24 of 88
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    geekdad wrote: »
    Really? Do you have data to back that up? I seem to recall AI reporting on Samsung quarterly reports of shipped items.....
    Here's there Q1 press release. I can't find any sales/shipped figures.

    http://www.samsung.com/us/aboutsamsung/news/newsIrList.do?news_ctgry=irnewsrelease&page=3&news_seq=&rdoPeriod=ALL&from_dt=&to_dt=&search_keyword=#
  • Reply 25 of 88
    jollypauljollypaul Posts: 328member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post


    But we were bashed, stomped and ridiculed as Android fans. 



     


    Fan boys love a good witch hunt. I've been denounced as a heretic more than once on this site for talking facts instead of gospel. That behavior is the ugliest part of participating in anything Apple. 

  • Reply 26 of 88
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member
    tzeshan wrote: »
    I have reported you. 

    Heh. Funniest part is nothing ever happens when those responsible for doing that actually do it. :lol:
  • Reply 27 of 88
    geekdadgeekdad Posts: 1,131member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    Here's there Q1 press release. I can't find any sales/shipped figures.



    http://www.samsung.com/us/aboutsamsung/news/newsIrList.do?news_ctgry=irnewsrelease&page=3&news_seq=&rdoPeriod=ALL&from_dt=&to_dt=&search_keyword=#


    But you proved my point....you said Samsung and other companies do not report those sales.


    You said:


    "Whether its shipped or sold, who besides Apple reports figures on a quarterly basis? It seems other companies like Samsung only do it when they feel like it and for certain products."

  • Reply 28 of 88
    nagrommenagromme Posts: 2,834member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by herbapou View Post



    Makes senses, a few months after the ipad 3 launches it was normal to have lots of units in the channel. Now we are a few months away from refreshes, so inventory is low.



    So the mini did compensate image



    What drove down the stock from its high in the AH is they hint that launches will happen in October instead of september. imo that doesnt meant we wont have something lauching before, but it does confirms there will be something in october.


     


    He didn't say launches in October. He implied launches BEFORE October, which could then be discussed on the next call--which is scheduled for October.

  • Reply 29 of 88
    evilutionevilution Posts: 1,399member
    Shipped isn't sold. HP shipped loads of their WebOS tablet and 200,000 were sent back from sellers as sale or return.
    Plenty of companies get unsold stock sent back, this generally doesn't happen with Apple though as demand for great products is too great.
  • Reply 30 of 88
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    geekdad wrote: »
    But you proved my point....you said Samsung and other companies do not report those sales.
    You said:
    "<span style="color:rgb(24,24,24);font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;line-height:18.1875px;">Whether its shipped or sold, who besides Apple reports figures on a quarterly basis? It seems other companies like Samsung only do it when they feel like it and for certain products."</span>
    Where in that press release does Samsung mention sales figures?
  • Reply 31 of 88
    originalgoriginalg Posts: 383member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by joebloggs View Post



    The iPad 3 launch last year makes total sense for lower sales this year. But I question whether drawing down inventory had anything to do with it. I thought Apple counted actual sales to consumers, not stock entering the pipeline. That has been a distinction often made - that many of the droid makers count a product as "sold" as soon as Best Buy places an order. Unless Apple is now doing the same, drawing down channel inventory wouldn't have any effect on numbers sold.


     


    I'm not sure why Tim said that remark about channel inventory making up the difference and no one asked for clarifications. In Q2 2013, the numbers were: 19.5M iPads sold, and 4.8M in channel inventory. This quarter Q3 2013, it was 14.6M iPads sold and 4.1M in channel inventory.


     


    Q2 source: http://www.morningstar.com/earnings/51338386-apple-inc-q2-2013.aspx?pindex=4


    Q3 source: http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/07/23/notes-of-interest-from-apples-q3-2013-conference-call


     


    Can anyone clarify? Seems like the numbers don't add up. Where is the 1.9M from and how is it relevant (shipped vs sold)? 

  • Reply 32 of 88
    pendergastpendergast Posts: 1,358member
    herbapou wrote: »
    oh, this could still mean we get launches in september indeed.  I need to find is exact words

    Update:  yep, he actually said it will be done in october, so september is where the launches will take place. CNBC had this one wrong, they told launches would not happen until october.

    This is why I was questioning it. Any mention of October should be assumed to mean the next quarterly conference call.

    Likely products will be announced in the first half of September and be released in the end of September.
  • Reply 33 of 88
    pendergastpendergast Posts: 1,358member
    joebloggs wrote: »
    The iPad 3 launch last year makes total sense for lower sales this year. But I question whether drawing down inventory had anything to do with it. I thought Apple counted actual sales to consumers, not stock entering the pipeline. That has been a distinction often made - that many of the droid makers count a product as "sold" as soon as Best Buy places an order. Unless Apple is now doing the same, drawing down channel inventory wouldn't have any effect on numbers sold.

    Apple breaks out channel inventory, which would be "shipped but not sold... yet".

    Usually Apple's channel inventory stays pretty flat, so when they report "shipped" numbers it generally is sold.
  • Reply 34 of 88
    I blame IGZO.
  • Reply 35 of 88
    kdarlingkdarling Posts: 1,640member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by joebloggs View Post



    The iPad 3 launch last year makes total sense for lower sales this year. But I question whether drawing down inventory had anything to do with it. I thought Apple counted actual sales to consumers, not stock entering the pipeline. That has been a distinction often made - that many of the droid makers count a product as "sold" as soon as Best Buy places an order. Unless Apple is now doing the same, drawing down channel inventory wouldn't have any effect on numbers sold.


     


    As already noted, the common internet idea that Apple reports only end user sales, is incorrect.  They also report a sale the moment a shipment leaves to a retailer.  (Interestingly, Samsung reports that sale when it arrives at the retailer.  And Blackberry holds off until the shipment arrives and no return is assured.)


     


    Here's what Apple counts in their quarterly reports:


     



    • Apple DOES count end user sales from their physical stores.


    • Apple DOES count online end user sales after they arrive to the customer.


    • Apple DOES count shipments to retailers and carriers as sales.


     


    And what is not included:


     



    • Apple does NOT report shipments to their own stores as sales.


    • Apple does NOT include sales to online customers until they arrive. (Which is why presale numbers can be larger than reported sales for a little while if shipments are behind.)


     


    For iPads especially, about half the time, sell-through to end users is more than what was sold to retailers, and the other half of the time, sell-through is less.  For example, in 3Q 2012, Apple announced 17 million iPad sales.  However, only about 15.8 million went to end users. 


     



     


    This happens with every manufacturer.  There will be quarters where retailers buy more units that they can sell, followed by quarters where retailers need to buy fewer units because of their previous overbuy.


     


    As you can see from above, another interesting tidbit is that more sales each year go into simply filling inventory channels for more sales outlets.   As shown below, by the end of this fiscal year, there will probably be over 4 million iPads and 12 million iPhones that were counted as sales since the beginning of time, but are actually just filling broader inventory channels.



     

  • Reply 36 of 88
    pendergastpendergast Posts: 1,358member
    kdarling wrote: »
    As already noted, the common internet idea that Apple reports only end user sales, is incorrect.  They also report a sale the moment a shipment leaves to a retailer.  (Interestingly, Samsung reports that sale when it arrives at the retailer.  And Blackberry holds off until the shipment arrives and no return is assured.)

    <p id="user_yui_3_10_0_1_1374630112957_880" style="color:rgb(24,24,24);font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;line-height:18.1875px;">Here's what Apple counts in their quarterly reports:</p>

    <p style="color:rgb(24,24,24);font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;line-height:18.1875px;"> </p>

    <ul id="user_yui_3_10_0_1_1374630112957_883" style="margin-left:38px;color:rgb(24,24,24);font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;line-height:18.1875px;"> [*] Apple DOES count end user sales from their physical stores.
    [*] Apple DOES count online end user sales after they arrive to the customer.
    [*] Apple DOES count shipments to retailers and carriers as sales.
    </ul>
    <p id="user_yui_3_10_0_1_1374630112957_885" style="color:rgb(24,24,24);font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;line-height:18.1875px;"> </p>

    <p id="user_yui_3_10_0_1_1374630112957_877" style="color:rgb(24,24,24);font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;line-height:18.1875px;">And what is not included:</p>

    <p id="user_yui_3_10_0_1_1374630112957_875" style="color:rgb(24,24,24);font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;line-height:18.1875px;"> </p>

    <div id="user_yui_3_10_0_1_1374630112957_864" style="color:rgb(24,24,24);font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;line-height:18.1875px;">
    <ul id="user_yui_3_10_0_1_1374630112957_870" style="margin-left:38px;"> [*] <span id="user_yui_3_10_0_1_1374630112957_887" style="line-height:1.231;">Apple does NOT report shipments to their own stores as sales.</span>

    [*] Apple does NOT include sales to online customers until they arrive. (Which is why presale numbers can be larger than reported sales for a little while if shipments are behind.)
    </ul>

    For iPads especially, about half the time, sell-through to end users is more than what was sold to retailers, and the other half of the time, sell-through is less.  For example, in 3Q 2012, Apple announced 17 million iPad sales.  However, only about 15.8 million went to end users. 

    <img alt="" class="lightbox-enabled" data-id="28768" data-type="61" src="http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/28768/width/500/height/1000/flags/LL" style="; width: 500px; height: 447px">


    This happens with every manufacturer.  There will be quarters where retailers buy more units that they can sell, followed by quarters where retailers need to buy fewer units because of their previous overbuy.

    As you can see from above, another interesting tidbit is that more sales each year go into simply filling inventory channels for more sales outlets.   As shown below, by the end of this fiscal year, there will probably be over 4 million iPads and 12 million iPhones that were counted as sales since the beginning of time, but are actually just filling broader inventory channels.
    <img alt="" class="lightbox-enabled" data-id="28767" data-type="61" src="http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/28767/width/500/height/1000/flags/LL" style="; width: 480px; height: 297px">


    </div>

    And Apple reports channel inventory, starting and ending.
  • Reply 37 of 88
    dysamoriadysamoria Posts: 3,430member
    It could also have something to do with market saturation, you know...
  • Reply 38 of 88
    geekdadgeekdad Posts: 1,131member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    Where in that press release does Samsung mention sales figures?


    Just search here on Ai.....you will find all the reported Samsung sales along with the Apple sales. There have been NUMEROUS articles that have the information.


    Here is one....


    http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/07/03/samsung-galaxy-s4-reaches-shipments-of-20-million---report

  • Reply 39 of 88
    kdarling wrote: »
    As already noted, the common internet idea that Apple reports only end user sales, is incorrect.  They also report a sale the moment a shipment leaves to a retailer.  (Interestingly, Samsung reports that sale when it arrives at the retailer.  And Blackberry holds off until the shipment arrives and no return is assured.)

    <p id="user_yui_3_10_0_1_1374630112957_880" style="color:rgb(24,24,24);font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;line-height:18.1875px;">Here's what Apple counts in their quarterly reports:</p>

    <p style="color:rgb(24,24,24);font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;line-height:18.1875px;"> </p>

    <ul id="user_yui_3_10_0_1_1374630112957_883" style="margin-left:38px;color:rgb(24,24,24);font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;line-height:18.1875px;"> [*] Apple DOES count end user sales from their physical stores.
    [*] Apple DOES count online end user sales after they arrive to the customer.
    [*] Apple DOES count shipments to retailers and carriers as sales.
    </ul>
    <p id="user_yui_3_10_0_1_1374630112957_885" style="color:rgb(24,24,24);font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;line-height:18.1875px;"> </p>

    <p id="user_yui_3_10_0_1_1374630112957_877" style="color:rgb(24,24,24);font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;line-height:18.1875px;">And what is not included:</p>

    <p id="user_yui_3_10_0_1_1374630112957_875" style="color:rgb(24,24,24);font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;line-height:18.1875px;"> </p>

    <div id="user_yui_3_10_0_1_1374630112957_864" style="color:rgb(24,24,24);font-family:arial, helvetica, sans-serif;line-height:18.1875px;">
    <ul id="user_yui_3_10_0_1_1374630112957_870" style="margin-left:38px;"> [*] <span id="user_yui_3_10_0_1_1374630112957_887" style="line-height:1.231;">Apple does NOT report shipments to their own stores as sales.</span>

    [*] Apple does NOT include sales to online customers until they arrive. (Which is why presale numbers can be larger than reported sales for a little while if shipments are behind.)
    </ul>

    For iPads especially, about half the time, sell-through to end users is more than what was sold to retailers, and the other half of the time, sell-through is less.  For example, in 3Q 2012, Apple announced 17 million iPad sales.  However, only about 15.8 million went to end users. 

    <img alt="" class="lightbox-enabled" data-id="28768" data-type="61" src="http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/28768/width/500/height/1000/flags/LL" style="; width: 500px; height: 447px">


    This happens with every manufacturer.  There will be quarters where retailers buy more units that they can sell, followed by quarters where retailers need to buy fewer units because of their previous overbuy.

    As you can see from above, another interesting tidbit is that more sales each year go into simply filling inventory channels for more sales outlets.   As shown below, by the end of this fiscal year, there will probably be over 4 million iPads and 12 million iPhones that were counted as sales since the beginning of time, but are actually just filling broader inventory channels.
    <img alt="" class="lightbox-enabled" data-id="28767" data-type="61" src="http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/28767/width/500/height/1000/flags/LL" style="; width: 480px; height: 297px">


    </div>
    Thanks for the detailed response.
  • Reply 40 of 88
    relicrelic Posts: 4,735member


    Oh no, here we go again, another shipped vs. sold argument, you know this comes up waaay to much and frankly it's getting old. We should just have one thread, call it S vs. S, so we can post the thread link anytime someone brings it up in another.

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