80% of reduced iPad shipments attributable to channel inventory decline

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 88
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    geekdad wrote: »
    Just search here on Ai.....you will find all the reported Samsung sales along with the Apple sales. There have been NUMEROUS articles that have the information.
    Here is one....
    http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/07/03/samsung-galaxy-s4-reaches-shipments-of-20-million---report
    Ok. But that's not official numbers from Samsung, or part of a quarterly earnings call. And it does prove my point that other companies release figures when they want to (i.e. when the numbers look good or there's some milestone met) not consistently every quarter like Apple does. Take Microsoft for example. They've never disclosed on a quarterly conference call how many Surface tablets they sold. Amazon never discloses how many Kindles they've sold; they just give percentage increases that are pretty meaningless when you don't know the actual numbers we're talking about.
  • Reply 42 of 88
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,389member
    pendergast wrote: »
    And Apple reports channel inventory, starting and ending.

    ... but note that they decline to explain how they arrive at it. It could be no more than a very educated guess. Still it's more than others do.
  • Reply 43 of 88
    ankleskaterankleskater Posts: 1,287member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by KDarling View Post


    As already noted, the common internet idea that Apple reports only end user sales, is incorrect.  They also report a sale the moment a shipment leaves to a retailer.  (Interestingly, Samsung reports that sale when it arrives at the retailer.  And Blackberry holds off until the shipment arrives and no return is assured.)



     


    I am not sure about Blackberry. After all, the Playbook write-down was pretty significant.


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by KDarling View Post


    ...


    This happens with every manufacturer.  There will be quarters where retailers buy more units that they can sell, followed by quarters where retailers need to buy fewer units because of their previous overbuy.


     




    One major diff between Apple and other manufacturers: Apple Stores. This leads to a difference in the definition of channel inventory, and possibly the reason why some have insisted that Apple has been more transparent. 


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by KDarling View Post




    As you can see from above, another interesting tidbit is that more sales each year go into simply filling inventory channels for more sales outlets.   As shown below, by the end of this fiscal year, there will probably be over 4 million iPads and 12 million iPhones that were counted as sales since the beginning of time, but are actually just filling broader inventory channels.


     




    If I may add a point of consideration (to a rich and informative post), it's a bit misleading for Cook to use drawdown on channel inventory as the explanation for drop in iPad numbers. The fact is that units in shipment recognized as revenue is also an indication of a company's forecast for the coming quarter. Apple seems to be less confident about the current quarter than they were last year at the same time. Of course, a good explanation is that we are many more months removed from the launch of the last new iPad. But, is that all there is?


     


    I think there remain two questions/points: There are now two iPad products rather than just one. Yet, Apple is selling fewer than one year ago. Second, iPad is supposed to be this amazing growth opportunity - a still new category that is cannibalizing the PC market (according to many if not all). Yet, Apple is selling fewer than a year ago and seems to be forecasting another downward trend for the current quarter. I don't think either observation can be explained by product cycle timing alone. If growth can only be sustained by product refreshes, I'd argue that it is possible the iPad growth cycle is slowing down fast, unless Cook cracks that China nut.

  • Reply 44 of 88
    ankleskaterankleskater Posts: 1,287member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post





    ... but note that they decline to explain how they arrive at it. It could be no more than a very educated guess. Still it's more than others do.


    One reason that Apple does more than what others do because they have more data - from their own stores.

  • Reply 45 of 88

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Relic View Post


    Oh no, here we go again, another shipped vs. sold argument, you know this comes up waaay to much and frankly it's getting old. We should just have one thread, call it S vs. S, so we can post the thread link anytime someone brings it up in another.





    Relic,


    We have here to many idiots that will argue this point to no end. My question is; does really mater?. Every company will produce reports that will put them in best possible light. Here on AI so called "experts" will tell you their "facts" of what Apple or Samsung do. I wonder why Apple did not hire them yet?

  • Reply 46 of 88
    ankleskaterankleskater Posts: 1,287member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by andrzejls View Post




    Relic,


    We have here to many idiots that will argue this point to no end. My question is; does really mater?. Every company will produce reports that will put them in best possible light. Here on AI so called "experts" will tell you their "facts" of what Apple or Samsung do. I wonder why Apple did not hire them yet?



    Actually, Apple has hired the occasional "analyst".

  • Reply 47 of 88
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,389member
    Actually, Apple has hired the occasional "analyst".

    Apple even uses analyst reports as reference in their discussion/explanation of quarterly results. For instance Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer used IDC analyst reports, oft-ridiculed by some forum members here at AI, as proof of Apple's success in the Japanese market.

    His quote: "IDC Japan announced iPhone gained the number one position. This is the first time a non-Japanese company has achieved the number-one spot for a year... unprecedented for a non-Japanese company."

    Tim Cook also cites them when it's beneficial. One of his quotes from the previous quarter:
    "The numbers we've seen from IDC would indicate the market in March declined 30% from December. As you can see from our numbers we declined 15%. If that holds we did much better than the market and had a very nice pickup in market share."
  • Reply 48 of 88
    piotpiot Posts: 1,346member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post


    There are now two iPad products rather than just one. Yet, Apple is selling fewer than one year ago.



     


    You seem to be ignoring the 42 million iPads sold in the previous two quarters. (since the iPad mini launch)

  • Reply 49 of 88
    ankleskaterankleskater Posts: 1,287member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by piot View Post


     


    You seem to be ignoring the 42 million iPads sold in the previous two quarters. (since the iPad mini launch)



     


    Nope.

  • Reply 50 of 88
    ankleskaterankleskater Posts: 1,287member


    Another consideration: Back in January, Tim Cook suggested that 2012 decline in Mac sales could be a one-time thing. The last two quarters have proven him wrong in part (arguably, Mac sales have stagnated rather than dropping significantly; and maybe it's not fair to judge the impact of the new MBA too early). He's still rationalizing that Mac sales are declining more slowly than the rest of PC industry. That's fair. But where is the money going? Not all into iPads, it would seem. 

  • Reply 51 of 88
    piotpiot Posts: 1,346member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post


     


    Nope.


     


    "Yet, Apple is selling fewer than one year ago"



     


    But not selling fewer, over the whole time period since the iPad mini launch. 3 quarters. I make it around 28% increase in sales.


     


    So.... "Yes."


  • Reply 52 of 88
    relicrelic Posts: 4,735member
    Another consideration: Back in January, Tim Cook suggested that 2012 decline in Mac sales could be a one-time thing. The last two quarters have proven him wrong in part (arguably, Mac sales have stagnated rather than dropping significantly; and maybe it's not fair to judge the impact of the new MBA too early). He's still rationalizing that Mac sales are declining more slowly than the rest of PC industry. That's fair. But where is the money going? Not all into iPads, it would seem. 

    It's not going anywhere, people are holding on to their desktop machines longer. A 3 year old i5 or i7 is still plenty of performance for the average user. Heck I even have a iLamp G4 1.25Ghz, 2GB Ram that's perfect for surfing and listening to music, I still think it's one of the coolest looking computers I have ever owned.

    Look how cute it is, I just want to hug it...
    1000
  • Reply 53 of 88
    ankleskaterankleskater Posts: 1,287member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by piot View Post


     


    But not selling fewer, over the whole time period since the iPad mini launch. 3 quarters. I make it around 28% increase in sales.


     


    So.... "Yes."



     


    So you get to tell me what I am ignoring or not ignoring? You get to tell me what periods I want to compare? Really?

  • Reply 54 of 88
    plovellplovell Posts: 826member
    No, this does not make sense.

    Apple has always reported SALES and not SHIPMENTS. In fact it has occasionally pointed out that other vendors do report shipments, and sometimes inflate them by channel-stuffing.

    The shipments may be down but that is just routine pre-update drawdown.
  • Reply 55 of 88
    ankleskaterankleskater Posts: 1,287member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by plovell View Post



    No, this does not make sense.



    Apple has always reported SALES and not SHIPMENTS. In fact it has occasionally pointed out that other vendors do report shipments, and sometimes inflate them by channel-stuffing.



    The shipments may be down but that is just routine pre-update drawdown.


    No.

  • Reply 56 of 88
    ankleskaterankleskater Posts: 1,287member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post





    Apple even uses analyst reports as reference in their discussion/explanation of quarterly results. For instance Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer used IDC analyst reports, oft-ridiculed by some forum members here at AI, as proof of Apple's success in the Japanese market.



    His quote: "IDC Japan announced iPhone gained the number one position. This is the first time a non-Japanese company has achieved the number-one spot for a year... unprecedented for a non-Japanese company."



    Tim Cook also cites them when it's beneficial. One of his quotes from the previous quarter:

    "The numbers we've seen from IDC would indicate the market in March declined 30% from December. As you can see from our numbers we declined 15%. If that holds we did much better than the market and had a very nice pickup in market share."


    When analysts report potential production problems, Cook tells the world not to listen. But when stats are in Apple's favor, he doesn't hesitate in citing them. This sort of cherry-picking of "analysis" does make me cringe a bit. Sure, every other company does it, too. But I expect Apple to be above it.

  • Reply 57 of 88
    19831983 Posts: 1,225member
    Aha! Now I get it, so the iPad situation might not be that bad after all. Its my favourite Apple device.
  • Reply 58 of 88
    sacto joesacto joe Posts: 895member
    herbapou wrote: »
    oh, this could still mean we get launches in september indeed.  I need to find is exact words

    Update:  yep, he actually said it will be done in october, so september is where the launches will take place. CNBC had this one wrong, they told launches would not happen until october.
    CNBC got it wrong, you say? Why am I not surprised....

    What WOULD surprise me is if they made a meaningful retraction.
  • Reply 59 of 88
    piotpiot Posts: 1,346member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post


     


    So you get to tell me what I am ignoring or not ignoring? You get to tell me what periods I want to compare? Really?



     


    You can compare what the hell you want. I simply pointed out that you compared ONE out of THREE possible quarters (where Apple sold 2 distinct iPad models). You chose to ignore the two quarters that showed substantial unit growth. 


     


    Your "Nope" reply was untrue. 

  • Reply 60 of 88
    ankleskaterankleskater Posts: 1,287member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by piot View Post


     


    You can compare what the hell you want. I simply pointed out that you compared ONE out of THREE possible quarters (where Apple sold 2 distinct iPad models). You chose to ignore the two quarters that showed substantial unit growth. 


     


    Your "Nope" reply was untrue. 



    Nope.


     


    You're being about as trollish as it gets but that's ok. I understand it's sort of a pastime for some. Carry on.

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