80% of reduced iPad shipments attributable to channel inventory decline

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  • Reply 81 of 88
    ankleskaterankleskater Posts: 1,287member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post


    ankleskater.


     


    I didn't realize you were trolling, so I answered the questions in good faith. This is the legally binding document produced at every conference call. It is not the Q&A session, although they will mention channel if asked then too.


     


    To be clear; Apple reads from a script which is prepared, and then is published and it has to be legally correct subject to civil and criminal offenses. This then IS most definitely an official report.


     


     This refutes your claim ( or at least the rhetorical sneer "Are you sure about that"). The 10Q, as far as I remember, is balance sheets and total inventory, and isn't broken down, but no company does. However I haven't been an investor for a year or so.


     


    So yes, they publish their channel inventory in the legally binding prepared script for their conference call. As for whether other companies do this, it depends on the companies. Amazon doesn't even break out the Kindles, nor yet their AWS, although that will change. However that was not the question at hand. 


     


     


     


    Whats not transparent is that we can only estimate channel when channel doesn't sell through.



     


    A conversation is not an official report. The 10-Q filing is. But you missed my point, which is not whether Apple is being honest. I have no doubt of that. The point is why don't we "hear" more data from others. My rationale is that most of us don't pay attention to the teleconferences that take place after release of earnings from other companies. Not knowing as much about other companies ? other companies not being "transparent". Just because you visit cousin Alice more often and hear more stories from her side of the family does not mean cousin Jacob is not a nice person.


     


    Finally, Apple does NOT "report" all the iPhones in shipment. 


     


    We do know when channel doesn't sell through. Furthermore, there is data out there on estimate of other companies' channel inventory. Again, people don't want to find out more about other companies because it makes it easier to diss them. Apple is a really good company that stands on its own merits. It doesn't need us to castigate others to make it shine in comparison.

  • Reply 82 of 88
    pendergastpendergast Posts: 1,358member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post


    A conversation is not an official report. The 10-Q filing is. But you missed my point, which is not whether Apple is being honest. I have no doubt of that. The point is why don't we "hear" more data from others. My rationale is that most of us don't pay attention to the teleconferences that take place after release of earnings from other companies. Not knowing as much about other companies ? other companies not being "transparent". Just because you visit cousin Alice more often and hear more stories from her side of the family does not mean cousin Jacob is not a nice person.


     


    Finally, Apple does NOT "report" all the iPhones in shipment. 


     


    We do know when channel doesn't sell through. Furthermore, there is data out there on estimate of other companies' channel inventory. Again, people don't want to find out more about other companies because it makes it easier to diss them. Apple is a really good company that stands on its own merits. It doesn't need us to castigate others to make it shine in comparison.



     


    It is officially, as in legally binding. If Apple was lying or being inaccurate, they would face stiff penalties. From their Senate hearing a few weeks ago, they hinted that there are SEC guys at their headquarters pretty much 24/7. 


     


    This isn't offhand comments in an interview, or some "unnamed executive" like we hear about from Samsung and the like.


     


    You can't seriously think that Apple is not more transparent than, say, Samsung. 


     


    Almost all debates about who is shipping/selling more comes down to actual Apple numbers compared to a composite of analyst guesswork and cherry-picked data sets Samsung did decide to release (or "leak" anonymously). All Samsung really reports, other than the aforementioned cherry-picked data (we shipped 20M S4s in its first quarter! ...ok, which kind of S4? How many to channel?) is revenue for their mobile division, which includes "smartphones" (that really aren't) and various other segments.


     


    On a side note, "shipped vs. sold" is a tired argument, and is only valid in one of these instances:


     


    1) It's a new release and Company XYZ reports $XM "sales" in the first month. Clearly, there's the potential that they grossly overestimated demand, and these will be returned and written down


     


    2) We see huge discounts on a product that apparently had "sold" a whole lot. If it was selling to end users so fast, why the discounts so soon?


     


    3) The company writes down a bunch of inventory next quarter, or "sales" fall off a cliff.


     


     


    All of these things happen regularly enough that the argument IS valid. However, when a company continues "selling" millions of devices each quarter and you use this argument, you're basically saying they're cooking their books (not that that never happens, mind you). 

  • Reply 83 of 88
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    A conversation is not an official report. The 10-Q filing is. But you missed my point, which is not whether Apple is being honest. I have no doubt of that. The point is why don't we "hear" more data from others. My rationale is that most of us don't pay attention to the teleconferences that take place after release of earnings from other companies. Not knowing as much about other companies ? other companies not being "transparent". Just because you visit cousin Alice more often and hear more stories from her side of the family does not mean cousin Jacob is not a nice person.

    Let me try to be remedially clear.

    1) The Apple conference call is not a conversation, to begin with. It is a reading of a prepared statement.
    2) That prepared statement is a report. It always contains channel inventory. It is legally binding. They don't issue one report and one 10Q with different figures.

    Lastly it is up to you to prove that other companies are more transparent or not. I was responding to your "are you sure about that?" when a different poster.said that Apple reported Channel inventory. Assuming that was a genuine question, clearly incorrectly -- since it was a sneer - I corrected you on facts. It is now up to you to prove Samsung et al. provide channel info per device category. get googling.
  • Reply 84 of 88
    ankleskaterankleskater Posts: 1,287member


    Quote:



    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post



    They don't issue one report and one 10Q with different figures.


     


    That's because only one of them is an official filing. Earnings calls are primarily a chance to discuss the earnings reports released prior to the teleconference (but sometimes the teleconference is a means to address investors even when there have been earnings reported). A company does not have to regurgitate everything in the earnings reports. It can discuss more than what's contained in the earnings reports. Companies almost always start with a statement explaining that actual results may differ from projections mentioned in earnings calls. So to call it "legally binding" ... I don't even know how to respond to that. Can't say it's wrong because a company should never mislead investors. But the earnings call itself is NOT the earnings report. Sigh ...


     


    Quote:


    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post



    I corrected you on facts. 


    Not at all. Now I am sneering.

  • Reply 85 of 88
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post


    Not at all. Now I am sneering.



    Lol. You have been handed your ass on your plate with facts and you are scurrying around like an oaf.


     


     


    Quote:


    That's because only one of them is an official filing.



     


    It doesn't matter both have to be correct, or its a criminal offense.


    Quote:


     Earnings calls are primarily a chance to discuss the earnings reports released prior to the teleconference (but sometimes the teleconference is a means to address investors even when there have been earnings reported). A company does not have to regurgitate everything in the earnings reports.



    Who says it does? In Apple's case it gives more information in it's conference call than it's 10-Q. Both have to be accurate, or its a civil or criminal offense.


    Quote:


     Companies almost always start with a statement explaining that actual results may differ from projections mentioned in earnings calls. So to call it "legally binding" ... I don't even know how to respond to that. Can't say it's wrong because a company should never mislead investors. But the earnings call itself is NOT the earnings report. Sigh ..



     


    Jesus wept. Firstly the statement is for projected revenues. NOT FOR THE ACTUAL RESULTS. Capice? the very fact that they have to include legal boilerplate even for the projected earnings, where you would assume most investors would know were estimations, proves that they could be sued without those legal disclaimers.


     


    They can't, and don't, make any such disclaimers for the actual results which is what we are talking about. No company would get away with a legal boiler plate saying that the actual results they are announcing can be taken with a pinch of salt and may not have happened. You either didn't know this, or you are being disingenuous. The numbers in the 10-Q are the same as in the report. And in the report there is more information about channel inventory. Which is what this is about ( and you have yet to provide any information that any other company gives channel info)


     


    both the 10Q and the conference call report can be taken as legally binding documents.

  • Reply 86 of 88
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,388member
    Asdasd, do you have any source that explains how Apple arrives at it's "channel inventory" numbers? I know the answer their investor relations office gave me . . .

    They declined to stipulate where they come from. It could be no more than an educated guess as far as I can tell.
  • Reply 87 of 88
    geekdadgeekdad Posts: 1,131member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    Where in that press release does Samsung mention sales figures?


    Just because you couldn't find then doesn't mean it doesn't exist. You stated Samsung doesn't report sales....like they were doing something underhanded of some sort. So back up your claims with data.

  • Reply 88 of 88
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post



    Asdasd, do you have any source that explains how Apple arrives at it's "channel inventory" numbers? I know the answer their investor relations office gave me . . .



    They declined to stipulate where they come from. It could be no more than an educated guess as far as I can tell.


    Well they know what is in channel now, but they tend to - but not always - give the number of weeks on a forward looking basis. I presume that 5 weeks channel(for any device) heading into the Christmas Q is more than 5 weeks at the end of the Christmas Q, as that 5 weeks is forward looking into the next Quarter.


     


    So if they intend to stay at 5 weeks channel they will have fewer devices in channel end Dec, compared to end Sept. 


     


    So that - the number of weeks - is a educated guess. But they know what is in channel. They can track orders from each retailer, and each retailer will order only when their stock hits a certain level, which they probably report.

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