Analyst predicts two iPhone releases per year after meeting with Apple's CEO, CFO

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
Apple's decision to split the iPhone lineup into a high-end flagship model and a more affordable mid-range offering sets the stage for the company to increase the frequency with which it updates the handsets, one analyst increasingly believes after meeting with the company's chief executive, Tim Cook.

iPhone 5s


In a Wednesday note to investors, Morgan Stanley Apple watcher Katy Huberty called the iPhone line divergence "a thoughtful approach" following conversations with Cook and Apple's Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer. Huberty believes Apple is now primed for "multiple refreshes per year" of the popular device, akin to the twin launches of iPad 3 and iPad 4 in 2012.

As the iPhone and iPad demand increasingly larger portions of Apple's resources and attention, the company's product cycle strategy does appear to be shifting. Apple's traditionally iPod-focused September event, for instance, now revolves around the iPhone, while the music players have not received any notable updates in 2013.

Huberty also sees services growing into a more prominent profit driver for Cupertino. She cites the potential advantages of integrating Apple's nearly 600 million "high-end" customer accounts, most linked to credit cards, with new hardware like the Touch ID fingerprint sensor to create "new services revenue streams."

The majority of Apple's existing service offerings are available for free or for relatively low cost. iTunes Match, for example, which stores a user's entire music collection in Apple's datacenters and allows for downloading and streaming that music to any of the user's devices, costs just $25 per year.

Many believe that Apple is in the early stages of a strategy that would use Touch ID alongside iOS 7's Bluetooth-based iBeacons functionality to create a new mobile payment system. Such a system, if implemented, could be a significant revenue source for Apple thanks to the size of the iOS device installed base alone.
«13

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 59
    Really......it took a meeting with cook to figure that out? They don't have anything new, so what else can they do?
  • Reply 2 of 59
    cpsrocpsro Posts: 2,320member

    No cogent rationale is provided. Just because Apple produced the iPad 3 and iPad 4 in the same year means we'll see new iPhone models released twice a year now? Huh-uh, I don't buy it.

  • Reply 3 of 59

    "... Katy Huberty..."  <end reading>

  • Reply 4 of 59
    well, excuse her - she's only an analyst ;)
  • Reply 5 of 59
    Suuuuure she had a "meeting." Right. Hahahahahahaha!
  • Reply 6 of 59
    paxmanpaxman Posts: 4,541member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

    Huberty also sees services growing into a more prominent profit driver for Cupertino. She cites the potential advantages of integrating Apple's nearly 600 million "high-end" customer accounts, most linked to credit cards, with new hardware like the Touch ID fingerprint sensor to create "new services revenue streams."

    Every analyst's wet dream prediction. It comes up with such frequency its no wonder they believe themselves. I guess one day a 'services arm' of Apple may become an independent entity, but so far in it's history Apple has strived to offer integrated solutions where hardware is the revenue driver and software and services create the user experience and ecosystem for the hardware and user to operate within. Fantasize as they may - is there any evidence that this is about to change?

  • Reply 7 of 59
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,383member
    Here's what happens. When Apple releases a new flagship phone, people line up to buy it, and it takes a couple of months for production to catch up with demand. BUT, Apple has historically only offered one size flagship phone. As far as I'm concerned, it would have been better if Apple had released a larger screen model iPhone 6 months ago that was a larger version of the iPhone 5.

    The would have created a lot of sales if they did.

    So, fast forward to now.

    Instead of making last year's flagship the cheaper model, they did a slight enhancement to the battery, stuck it in a colorful polycarb case and made that their second tier iPhone 5C as they came out out the updated iPhone 5 and called it the iPhone 5S.

    I think it's a good strategy to make their second tier (eventually their entry level phone) out of a different and less expansive case. I think that's a wise move, but where Apple could have done better was to offer better colors.

    But to flip flip every 6 or so months and announce a different sized model is what they SHOULD do and probably the only thing they CAN do due to availability of parts and even people to spit out two large demand products at the same time. Probably why Apple is shipping iPads and not the iPad mini 2's.

    Either way, I'm looking forward to the next iPhone with a larger screen. I would like to see them add more RAM to the processor and spit them out with at least 2GB if not 4GB.
  • Reply 8 of 59
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    Ahem...

    http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/04/11/analyst-says-apple-may-launch-new-internet-service-killer-ios-app-after-meeting-with-management

    [QUOTE]In a note to investors on Thursday, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who recently met with Apple management, said the company could debut new internet-based services as well as a "killer app" later this year.

    In the near term, Huberty said Apple could make a surprise announcement at the upcoming Worldwide Developers Conference in June regarding a new type of internet service such as streaming music or a mobile payment system. She went on to say that Apple Internet Software and Service chief Eddy Cue is believed to be working to improve existing services like iCloud and Maps, but at the same time is planning to launch new initiatives.[/QUOTE]
  • Reply 9 of 59
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,529member
    Ugh...analysts. The dual iPad release lasted one year.
  • Reply 10 of 59

    I am willing to believe that Apple COULD conceivably launch iPhones at two different points of the year. However, I believe Apple would not do something like release the iPhone 6 in the spring after debuting the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c in the fall. Instead, I could see Apple conceivably releasing a new addition to the iPhone 5 lineup--whether it's a larger iPhone or something else--that would satisfy demand for some segment of the market WITHOUT cutting into the creme-de-la-creme that is the current iPhone 5s or next fall's iPhone 6.

     

    It's also what I see happening with the alleged (and still possibly fictitious) iPad Pro. They release their flagship product and their consumer-oriented product (i.e. iPhone 5s/5c and iPad Air/Mini) in the fall so that they benefit from the holiday shopping season, then their more niche product (say iPhone 5p, for Plus or Pro, and iPad Pro) in the spring.

     

    Dividing the upgrade cycle that way would probably make a lot more sense just because it means a shorter drought between releases. This year was very long because all of Apple's major releases were in the fall, with very few new products (128GB iPads, Haswell MacBook Air, etc.) over the rest of the year to get excited about. It keeps Apple on the same once-a-year upgrade cycle for all their products, but spreads the launches out enough to keep people talking.

     

    (See? I can pull this stuff out of my tuckus, too.)

  • Reply 11 of 59
    mjtomlinmjtomlin Posts: 1,709member
    It could work... they could break up updates to two times a year for both iPad and iPhone...

    This is how I imagine it...

    Spring 2014, we'll see the introduction of the iPad Pro; 4 core A7X, more RAM, larger battery, Touch ID (this could instead happen at WWDC where I could see Apple releasing Xcode for iOS to hit home the "Pro" aspect of the device.)

    Fall 2014, iPad mini and Air updated, iPhone 6 debuts in two screen sizes. (iPhone 4s and 5s retired, iPhone 5c price drops.)

    Spring 2015, iPad Pro updated, iPhone 5c updated to 6c and also comes in a second display size. (iPhone 5c price drops again or Apple retires it as well and begins a new pricing model.)

    Somewhere in there, the iPod touch is also updated and it also gets a second model with larger display ~6" as an answer to the phablet market. The iPod brand is also used for new wearable products, iPod watch, iPod whatever, iPod etc... That extends the functionality of the iPod line into a new direction. (I'm guessing this is why we didn't see any iPod updates at all this year and why the iPod nano got a new form factor last year.)

    Sometime in 2016, we'll see a new line of computers (a laptop and an AIO desktop) running iOS.
  • Reply 12 of 59
    gwmacgwmac Posts: 1,795member

    I see this is a very likely outcome. A Spring and Fall release. Spring could be a larger iPhone with Fall for the 4" models. If they decide to produce a larger iPhone a staggered release would make more sense to help with any production shortages and supply constraints. It would also help keep the excitement level up year round as opposed to now where interest in the iPhone fades somewhat in the 6 months before a refresh. As much as I hope for a larger iPhone it would suck for me personally since I just got a 5s though I would much prefer a larger iPhone but I would live. Hopefully I could get a decent price for my current 5s model and would just have to buy a larger version out of subsidy. 

  • Reply 13 of 59
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 8,360member

    A lobotomized monkey could predict that Apple is going to release two phones next year, since they did release two models this year, DUH!

     

    As for me, I really don't give a crap about what any analyst says or predicts.

     

    Instead of believing in whatever some analyst pulls out of their butt, I'd rather pull some rumor out of my own butt, and I'm hoping that Apple releases a large premium model iPad in 6 months, with a display that's around 12". I would definitely get one of those.

  • Reply 14 of 59
    virtuavirtua Posts: 205member
    They haven't predicted the second coming of Steve, or maybe that's just been announced lol.
  • Reply 15 of 59
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,529member
    Apple loves the Dec qtr. after aligning the idevices to be released just prior, Apple won't alter its plans.
  • Reply 16 of 59
    andysolandysol Posts: 2,506member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

     

    A lobotomized monkey could predict that Apple is going to release two phones next year, since they did release two models this year, DUH!

     

    As for me, I really don't give a crap about what any analyst says or predicts.


    She is saying they will do 2 different release dates- maybe spring and fall- not 2 phones at the same time.

     

    Not saying this is true, but just getting your story straight.  Your 2nd point definitely still holds water though.  :)  Although Rogifan did bring up a pretty solid point.

  • Reply 17 of 59

    I wouldn't be surprised if Apple unveiled a larger iPhone, larger iPad and/or a phablet at WWDC next year.

     

    Why at WWDC? Because new resolutions will require developers to make use of the auto-layout APIs if they don't already (and many don't).  So these devices will need to be announced in advance.

     

    iOS 8 might also introduce split-screen multi-tasking, which will also require the use of auto-layout.

  • Reply 18 of 59
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mjtomlin View Post



    It could work... they could break up updates to two times a year for both iPad and iPhone...



    This is how I imagine it...



    Spring 2014, we'll see the introduction of the iPad Pro (this may also happen at WWDC and Apple also debuts an iOS version of Xcode, capable of creating iOS apps only - not OS X applications.)



    Fall 2014, iPad mini and Air updated, iPhone 6 debuts in two screen sizes. (iPhone 4s retired, iPhone 5c price drops.)



    Spring 2015, iPad Pro updated, iPhone 5c updated to 6c and also comes in a second display size. (iPhone 5c price drops again or Apple retires it as well and begins a new pricing model.)



    Somewhere in there, the iPod touch is also updated and it also gets a second model with larger display ~6" as an answer to the phablet market. The iPod brand is also used for new wearable products, iPod watch, iPod whatever, iPod etc... That extends the functionality of the iPod line into a new direction. (I'm guessing this is why we didn't see any iPod updates at all this year and why the iPod nano got a new form factor last year.)



    Sometime in 2016, we'll see a new line of computers (a laptop and an AIO desktop) running iOS.

    I disagree.

     

    my guess is that only the 'c'  gets 'feature lifts' on the 'tock' cycle, whereas 's' (or plain) gets a performance lift (either new battery or new processor).   Reason:  Keeps the 1 year OS cycle intact.  Introducing new features requires a New OS... my guess is that at most, they want a point release update in the Spring.

     

    so the 'tick' cycle (fall release)

    - New 'High End' version (let's say 5"

    - Old High end gets repackaged into the 'c' version... the innards get wrapped in plastic

    - Old C version goes to the .99 subscriber cost pile.

     

    the 'tock' cycle (spring release)

    - .99 cent phone same old same old.

    - the 'c' phone is updated with 1/2 of the features of the high end phone

      (take your pick:   A7M7 chip set + one of these: Camera, TouchID)   my guess... camera.)

    - the high end phone gets a speed bump and/or battery bump.

  • Reply 19 of 59
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 8,360member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Andysol View Post

     

    She is saying they will do 2 different release dates- maybe spring and fall- not 2 phones at the same time.

     


     

    Ah, ok, I see now.

     

    I don't know if Apple is going to do that with their iPhone releases, but I do think that Apple should be releasing hot products in every single quarter, and not have a whole bunch of products all being released around the same time.

  • Reply 20 of 59
    shompashompa Posts: 340member

    This is not Steve Jobs Apple.



    If it was Steve Jobs Apple: iPhone is a software platform. A new iPhone is only released with a new OS.



    Maybe Tim will play Samsung and release meaningless hardware upgrades a couple of times a year.

Sign In or Register to comment.