Apple may have sold upwards of 60 million iPhones over holiday quarter

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  • Reply 41 of 103
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

     
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post



    The reason Apple stock dropped last year was because earnings growth went flat or NEGATIVE the last 4 Qtrs.

    Q1'13 - flat

    Q2'13 - minus 18%

    Q3'13 - minus 20%

    Q4'13 - minus 5%




    So you're saying Apple's YoY net earnings show Apple earnings in 2013 were less then they earned in their respective 2012 quarters?

    Apple’s net income growth:

     

    2009-10: +70.1%

    2010-11: +85.0%

    2011-12: +61.0%

    2012-13: –11.3%

     

    Source: Form 10-K

     

    Add: I see that sog35 provided EPS numbers above.

  • Reply 42 of 103
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    sog35 wrote: »
    That is correct.

    I think revenue grew about 8% from 2012 but earnings went down 10%.

    2012 FY EPS - $44.16
    2013 FY EPS - $39.63

    2012 IMO was a total anomaly because of ridiculously high gross margins.  For some reason the 4S had superior margins and was much easier to produce than the 4.  Plus a large percentage of people were buying the top end 4S instead of the 4.  In addition there was no iPadMini which hurt Apple's margins in 2013.  What also hurt margins in 2013 was the increase in warranty and software accrual that deferred billions in revenue which was not the case in 2012.

    If we see earnings growth back at 10-15% I can easily see the stock go back to the $625-$675 range. 

    I think such earnings growth is possible in 2014.  First off by introducing the 5C instead of selling last years premium model at a discount the percentage of 5S units is up in comparison to the 5 last year.  The 5C also has healthy margins.  iPadAir sales also seemed very strong compared to last years iPad.  In 2012 it seemed like everyone wanted the Mini and that hurt the iPad sales, which brought down revenue, margin, and earnings.  This year I'm guessing the Air would have sold the most units.  I'm also guessing that more and more people are buying the higher memory versions of all iPad models.  My guess is iPhone and iPad average selling price will be up significantly compared to 2012.

    I hadn't realized that. It's interesting that the stock has gone up over this past year despite lowered net earnings. I assume that takes into account buybacks and dividends.
  • Reply 43 of 103
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,876moderator
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    Not so sure about that. When Apple reported that blowout quarter in Jan 2012 I remember the clowns on CNBC being shocked at how good it was, because they had been using AT&T and Verizon as a gauge. Don't think that works anymore with so much of Apple's sales coming from overseas.

     

    Especially with the other Chinese carriers coming online right at the introduction of the new phones back in September.  Something the article, which did mention NTT DoCoMo, failed to mention.  That extra boost from China Telecom and China Unicom having the phones right from the start, rather than three months later as was the case in previous years, should be significant for unit volumes.

  • Reply 44 of 103
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post



    I hadn't realized that. It's interesting that the stock has gone up over this past year despite lowered net earnings. I assume that takes into account buybacks and dividends.

    I think it’s probably fair to say that Apple is still quite substantially undervalued, but the market is still waiting for Cook to deliver some solid earnings growth numbers independent of financial engineering decisions such as dividends and share repurchases. The latter can help at the margin, but only if they seem consistent with Apple signaling prospects for future growth.

     

    I have no doubt that will happen in 2014 (relative to 2013), but not at the 65%+ levels we saw in the past. To some extent, Apple was cursed by its own ridiculously supra-normal growth rates in 2009-12. That kind of success will likely be near-impossible to replicate. 

  • Reply 45 of 103
    REGARDING: %u201Cupwards of 60" means close to 60.

    REPLY:
    %u201CUpwards%u201D of 60 million means MORE THAN 60 million

    From the New American Oxford Dictionary
    PHRASES
    upwards (or upward): of more than: upwards of 3,500 copies | %u201CGooden can throw the ball at upward of 95 miles per hour.%u201D
  • Reply 46 of 103

    REGARDING: “upwards of 60" means close to 60.

     

    REPLY: 

    “Upwards” of 60 million means MORE THAN 60 million

     

    From the New American Oxford Dictionary

    PHRASES

    upwards (or upward): of more than: upwards of 3,500 copies | “Gooden can throw the ball at upward of 95 miles per hour.”

  • Reply 47 of 103
    strask wrote: »
    Not one analyst seem to say 60 million iPhones. Where does the number in the headline come from?

    Interesting...

    These are the souls Core Bluetooth that time men's tries...

    Yea, though I walk through the iBeacon, I am not afraid...

    There is a tide in the affairs of men.
    Which, taken at the chrome browser , leads on to fortune;
    Omitted, all the voyage of their life
    Is bound in Galaxy 4 and in miseries.
    On such a full sea are we now afloat,
    And we must take the current when it serves,
  • Reply 48 of 103
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

    The strategy is well thought out.  We shall see if it pays off in a week and the coming quarters. 


     

    That statement made me laugh.

  • Reply 49 of 103
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

    Why?  even good strategies don't always produce great results.


     

    Really?

     

    All your statements in this thread have been well thought out. Pinpointed Apple's financial situation to a T. You've even revised some of your earlier thinking and done a fine job in casting the reality of Apple's situation.

     

    And then... last statement.

     

    In my opinion... all good strategies produce great results. That's what makes them great strategies. Of course you never know until you put the boat in the water.

  • Reply 50 of 103
    Dead meat. Apple shareholders are going to end up as dead meat when Apple's share price plummets to $500 on earnings. You people really don't get it. It has nothing to do with how many iPhones, iPads or iMacs Apple is selling. It's all about Apple's falling market share in everything. Wall Street absolutely hates companies with falling market share. It means that a company doesn't have a future. Apple is the wealthiest company on Wall Street that doesn't have a future. Tim Cook only vaguely mentions that Apple has some mysterious products in the pipeline. Yeah, I'm sure that really excites investors to rush out and buy Apple. HELL NO!

    You got to throw those Wall Street vultures a few scraps of meat and bones to make them salivate. Google knows how to do it. Amazon knows how to do it. Apple doesn't know diddly about exciting investors and this is the result. A continually falling stock as the company sells more products than ever.
  • Reply 51 of 103
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Really?

    All your statements in this thread have been well thought out. Pinpointed Apple's financial situation to a T. You've even revised some of your earlier thinking and done a fine job in casting the reality of Apple's situation.

    And then... last statement.

    In my opinion... all good strategies produce great results. That's what makes them great strategies. Of course you never know until you put the boat in the water.

    Not necessarily.

    1) If we're looking only at the short-term results of a "good strategy" that was devised for the long term then it may appear to not be successful.

    2) The best strategies are subject to external factors. So even if we were to figure out The Ultimate Question the planet could get destroyed before you could relay that info.
  • Reply 52 of 103
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    Not necessarily.



    1) If we're looking only at the short-term results of a "good stately" that was devised for the long term then it may appear to not be successful.



    2) The best strategies are subject to external factors. So even if we were to figure out The Ultimate Question the planet could get destroyed before you could relay that info.

     

    Any "good" strategy in business is meant for the long term. Anyone with any knowledge about business knows that good strategies are for the long term.

     

    Any "good" strategy won't sink the boat in the near term.

     

    As far as the Ultimate Question... a good strategy would have taken planet destruction into account.

  • Reply 53 of 103
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Any "good" strategy in business is meant for the long term. Anyone with any knowledge about business knows that good strategies are for the long term.

    Any "good" strategy won't sink the boat in the near term.

    There are plenty of short term "plans of action or policies designed to achieve an overall aim" in business, too. Most of these seem to be reoccurring, mundane business strategies which is probably why we typically don't talk about them.
  • Reply 54 of 103
    strask wrote: »
    Not one analyst seem to say 60 million iPhones. Where does the number in the headline come from?

    Interesting...

    Something sneaky is going on at AI...

    It appears to be used intermittently.

    Here's what I've discovered:

    Sometimes...

    A comment you post to an AI forum, such as this, is parsed for "adwords" and links to advertisers are added to words such as 'iPhones' in the first quoted post (on page 1 of this forum).

    The interesting part is that the user who is making the post does not see these links.

    However, if you log out and read the forum posts as a visitor, you will see these adlinks.


    I first noticed this on another thread, using someone else's iPad -- I was not signed to AI. When I went to the forum I noticed that my post (quoted below), had links inserted in my text for the words "Core Bluetooth" and "iBeacons". I didn't include any links... So, I logged on to edit the text.

    Examining my text, I found no links, cancelled the edit, then noticed that the links in my text were gone...

    What's going on???

    I signed out of AI and the links were back!


    If you sign out from AI and link to the post you should be able see the add links added to my content, by AI -- without my knowledge or approval...


    What if I had posted a bit about one of my grand kids -- and AI, had added a link to a site that is offensive: adds, porn, religion, politics...


    Try logging out and looking at some of your posts...

    Sol, did you know you posted a link for iPod cases (among other things) within your message???


    1000


    And here are the associated links:


    Here's the raw link for 'case in 2012'

    http://api.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=9652589481f2c9e30f68cf5f19b3ef60&loc=http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/161643/apple-may-have-sold-upwards-of-60-million-iphones-over-holiday-quarter/40#post_2459853&v=1&exp=3:C34:14&mid=5316&type=H&libId=a76b9368-25d7-4e24-bb9a-d6935348116b&out=http://viglink.pgpartner.com/rd.php?r=5316&m=1421046756&q=n&rdgt=1390155841&it=1390328641&et=1390760641&priceret=9.99&pg=~~3&k=7d66ae089d87a79a4f0458ecb8552531&source=feed&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Eamazon%2Ecom%2Fdp%2FB00829CSLU%2Fref%3Dasc%5Fdf%5FB00829CSLU2873109%3Fsmid%3DA308R5P05RP10S%26tag%3Dpgmp%2D550%2D01%2D20%26linkCode%3Dasn%26creative%3D395109%26creativeASIN%3DB00829CSLU&st=feed&mt=~~~~~~~~n~~~&ref=http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/161643/apple-may-have-sold-upwards-of-60-million-iphones-over-holiday-quarter&title=Apple may have sold upwards of 60 million iPhones over holiday quarter - Page 2&txt=<span id="yui_3_10_0_1_1390247265034_864">case </span><span>in </span><span>2012</span>&jsonp=vglnk_jsonp_13902473179958




    Here's my original post:
    --I really don't want to go there, but...

    In a way, you/we are all correct.

    An iBeacon is a high-level BLE protocol developed by Apple. It has a very rigorous implementation -- basically it can identify itself and data that a listening device can use to determine how near it is to the iBeacon, That's It!

    A BLE device can act as an iBeacon by implementing Apple's iBeacon protocol.


    Sometimes a non-iBeacon BLE device is called a beacon (not to be confused with an iBeacon)

    Also, sometimes an iBeacon is referred to as a beacon (not to be confused with a non-iBeacon beacon)...


    Still with me?


    There is a lower-level BLE protocol that Apple implements as Core Bluetooth.

    Using this Core Bluetooth protocol, a BLE device can operate as [at least] one of 2 classes of device.

    A Central device or a Peripheral device.

    To make things interesting, the Bluetooth org defines a Central device as a Client and a Peripheral device as a Server.


    Do you detect the workings of a committee, here?


    ...
  • Reply 55 of 103
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    There are plenty of short term "plans of action or policies designed to achieve an overall aim" in business, too. Most of these seem to be reoccurring, mundane business strategies which is probably why we typically don't talk about them.

     

    ... and they are all taken to ensure the future health of a company.

  • Reply 56 of 103
    @Sog35

    At what point would you say tat AAPLhas undergone a complete technical breakdown and can subsequently be viewed like other stocks in its sector?

    Or, is it such a high flyer like XOM and must be held to 9-13 PE forever ( unless it sells an order of magnitude more than usual?)

    Just wondering, like my life depends on it ;)
  • Reply 57 of 103
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    ... and they are all taken to ensure the future health of a company.

    Sure, but it still can be short term and yet be a viable strategy. For example, eating lunch today is a short term goal, with the short term strategy of supplying nutrients to my boy despite the fact that I have to eat for my entire life. Furthermore, I plan to have a healthy meal which is a strategy I hope affords me both long and short term benefits.
  • Reply 58 of 103
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,228member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

     

     

    Really?

     

    All your statements in this thread have been well thought out. Pinpointed Apple's financial situation to a T. You've even revised some of your earlier thinking and done a fine job in casting the reality of Apple's situation.

     

    And then... last statement.

     

    In my opinion... all good strategies produce great results. That's what makes them great strategies. Of course you never know until you put the boat in the water.


     

    Depends, you could be right all the way to correctly predict big earnings and yet the stock could go down for some pointless reason.

  • Reply 59 of 103
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,228member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by palomine View Post



    @Sog35



    At what point would you say tat AAPLhas undergone a complete technical breakdown and can subsequently be viewed like other stocks in its sector?

    Or, is it such a high flyer like XOM and must be held to 9-13 PE forever ( unless it sells an order of magnitude more than usual?)

    Just wondering, like my life depends on it image

     

    I dont think Apple PE will go more than 15, Apple is in a "show me" mode for now.  PE expansions is base on "hope" of growth, Apple would need to introduce new caterories for that.

  • Reply 60 of 103
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

     

     

    Depends, you could be right all the way to correctly predict big earnings and yet the stock could go down for some pointless reason.


     

    It depends. If your strategy is to make the stock go up then you failed in your strategy. I doubt if Tim Cook's strategy is to make the stock go up. I would think that he just wants to keep Apple very healthy.

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