The analyst numbers are bunk and all, but it seems like 60MM units still isn't much in the way of growth. I would have thought 65MM would be a more reasonable expectation, but it doesn't look like that is in the realm of possibilities at this point.
My logic, which is completely unscientific: ~37MM units in 2012FQ1 out of contract + Blackberry's collapse + increasing smart phone penetration.
Really though, I think the iPad numbers will be more important for the stock. 30MM would be huge, and I imagine there could be a nice ASP bump.
Based on the graph in the article it would indicate the growth is slowing but it's still a hefty gain in units YoY from 2012's 48MM. It certainly looks better than the plateauing we've seen in Asymco graphs for Android-based phones.
The analyst numbers are bunk and all, but it seems like 60MM units still isn't much in the way of growth. I would have thought 65MM would be a more reasonable expectation, but it doesn't look like that is in the realm of possibilities at this point.
My logic, which is completely unscientific: ~37MM units in 2012FQ1 out of contract + Blackberry's collapse + increasing smart phone penetration.
Really though, I think the iPad numbers will be more important for the stock. 30MM would be huge, and I imagine there could be a nice ASP bump.
I think all of the analysts are too conservative this time. My prediction is for between 63 and 70 million iPhones. Total of more than 100 million iOS devices.
Regardless of what the number is its doubtful that it will move the stock significantly. Unfortunately the only thing that will bring the stock up is a new product launch
If it is 59 million, " Wall Street Analysts" will say they sold TOO much and the Jan-Mar period will be have to be down... Let's keep looking at all Apple News as the glass half full!
The reason Apple stock dropped last year was because earnings growth went flat or NEGATIVE the last 4 Qtrs.
Q1'13 - flat
Q2'13 - minus 18%
Q3'13 - minus 20%
Q4'13 - minus 5%
So you're saying Apple's YoY net earnings show Apple earnings in 2013 were less then they earned in their respective 2012 quarters?
If it is 59 million, " Wall Street Analysts" will say they sold TOO much and the Jan-Mar period will be have to be down... Let's keep looking at all Apple News as the glass half full!
That would be "almost" exactly my thinking... but rather than, "sold TOO much", I'd say, the 2nd fiscal quarter forecast will "look TOO small" in comparison.
Not one analyst seem to say 60 million iPhones. Where does the number in the headline come from?
Rounding up to one significant figure from 57 (or 58) million is quite sensible, and is what AI did in the title, reducing the precision to about 17%. Now if they'd said "upwards of 60.73 million", then I'd definitely cry foul. Such precision in a prediction would be absurd in the absence of figures from a company as secretive as Apple. And lets not forget, the headline also says "may have sold", which means they may not have sold that many.
Quote:
Faizal Kara's 59.73 million unit projection
....is just that--absurd. As if any analyst can make guesses with 0.02% precision and have any chance of being correct. What it really means is that this analyst has no grasp of statistics, and therefore should not be given any credibility.
Quote:
Andy Hargreaves brings up the rear with 50.93 million.
Ditto. Statistical incompetence.
Quote:
Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore predicts sales of 58 million handsets, Evercore's Robert Cihra sees 57 million
These two figures are more sensible predictions, having a precision of around 2%. We shall see next week if even that degree of precision is warranted, when we find out the truth. If Apple reports sales within 2% of those predictions, then these two analysts win a gold star.
Rounding up to one significant figure from 57 (or 58) million is quite sensible, and is what AI did in the title, reducing the precision to about 17%. Now if they'd said "upwards of 60.73 million", then I'd definitely cry foul. Such precision in a prediction would be absurd in the absence of figures from a company as secretive as Apple. And lets not forget, the headline also says "may have sold", which means they may not have sold that many.
No, it is not sensible, not if the headline uses the phrase "upwards of." Upwards of means more than. If they had said "almost" then the number would have been sensible. But for an article that states that analysts' predictions range from 50-58 million, the headline "upwards of 60 million" is not reasonable.
It depends if the calendar or fiscal quarter is being referred. Apple starts their fiscal year a quarter before the calendar year which means the year starts off with a bang from the holiday sales. This isn't universally done but very common among corporations.
So easy to manipulate AAPL, overestimate sales, short the stock, make money when price falls due to failure to meet unrealistic expectations. This happens over and over.
I think the author was extrapolating from analyst estimates to actual results. As we all know the analysts don't like to come across too bullish even though in private they might predict higher numbers.
Comments
Based on the graph in the article it would indicate the growth is slowing but it's still a hefty gain in units YoY from 2012's 48MM. It certainly looks better than the plateauing we've seen in Asymco graphs for Android-based phones.
The analyst numbers are bunk and all, but it seems like 60MM units still isn't much in the way of growth. I would have thought 65MM would be a more reasonable expectation, but it doesn't look like that is in the realm of possibilities at this point.
My logic, which is completely unscientific: ~37MM units in 2012FQ1 out of contract + Blackberry's collapse + increasing smart phone penetration.
Really though, I think the iPad numbers will be more important for the stock. 30MM would be huge, and I imagine there could be a nice ASP bump.
Less than 60m is growth decelaration indeed.
My first metric is market share change:
https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/news/press-releases/apple-and-samsung-grow-to-represent-68-percent-of-smartphones-owned-in the-u-s-according-to-the-npd-group/
My second metric will be a US sales sample, so VZ numbers tomorrow.
The third metric is internationnal sales.
More launch countries meens better than last year, assuming the phone did better in the US.
If this deems true....Not Kicking Ass, my ass. Go Apple!
So you're saying Apple's YoY net earnings show Apple earnings in 2013 were less then they earned in their respective 2012 quarters?
""upwards of 60" means close to 60. Literary license. :-)"
That is not correct. "Upwards of" means more than or in excess of. Check it out:
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/upwards of
The headline should read "Upwards of 50 million."
If it is 59 million, " Wall Street Analysts" will say they sold TOO much and the Jan-Mar period will be have to be down... Let's keep looking at all Apple News as the glass half full!
That would be "almost" exactly my thinking... but rather than, "sold TOO much", I'd say, the 2nd fiscal quarter forecast will "look TOO small" in comparison.
Apple sold 700,000,000,000,000 iPhones last quarter. If you hear anything else from them, sell to $50 per share.
Not one analyst seem to say 60 million iPhones. Where does the number in the headline come from?
Rounding up to one significant figure from 57 (or 58) million is quite sensible, and is what AI did in the title, reducing the precision to about 17%. Now if they'd said "upwards of 60.73 million", then I'd definitely cry foul. Such precision in a prediction would be absurd in the absence of figures from a company as secretive as Apple. And lets not forget, the headline also says "may have sold", which means they may not have sold that many.
....is just that--absurd. As if any analyst can make guesses with 0.02% precision and have any chance of being correct. What it really means is that this analyst has no grasp of statistics, and therefore should not be given any credibility.
Ditto. Statistical incompetence.
These two figures are more sensible predictions, having a precision of around 2%. We shall see next week if even that degree of precision is warranted, when we find out the truth. If Apple reports sales within 2% of those predictions, then these two analysts win a gold star.
Rounding up to one significant figure from 57 (or 58) million is quite sensible, and is what AI did in the title, reducing the precision to about 17%. Now if they'd said "upwards of 60.73 million", then I'd definitely cry foul. Such precision in a prediction would be absurd in the absence of figures from a company as secretive as Apple. And lets not forget, the headline also says "may have sold", which means they may not have sold that many.
No, it is not sensible, not if the headline uses the phrase "upwards of." Upwards of means more than. If they had said "almost" then the number would have been sensible. But for an article that states that analysts' predictions range from 50-58 million, the headline "upwards of 60 million" is not reasonable.
No. Apple's fiscal year starts in Oct.
It depends if the calendar or fiscal quarter is being referred. Apple starts their fiscal year a quarter before the calendar year which means the year starts off with a bang from the holiday sales. This isn't universally done but very common among corporations.
It means the higher level is more than the value stated. It does not mean close to that value but never reaching it.
Indeed. Otherwise, we might as well say upwards of 65M.
I think the author was extrapolating from analyst estimates to actual results. As we all know the analysts don't like to come across too bullish even though in private they might predict higher numbers.
What other company do you know where the stock will fall $14 on good news. Apple should be trading above $600 easily.