Visionaries of the tech world who foresaw Apple's future

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  • Reply 41 of 106
    sambirasambira Posts: 90member

    Don't forget Bill Gates the visionary...  "640K ought to be enough for anybody."

  • Reply 42 of 106
    Stop picking on John Dvorak, man. Leave him alone. He's a visionary.
  • Reply 43 of 106
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    Stop picking on John Dvorak, man. Leave him alone. He's a visionary.

    ...who is in dire need of better bifocals.
  • Reply 44 of 106
    Dvorak is the Rush Limbaugh of tech "journalism"!
  • Reply 45 of 106
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mensmovement View Post

     

    "Gates…spins."


     

    mensmovement, are you trying to compete with DED? If this is an example of your best effort at satire, you don't stand a chance. Time for a new hobby…

  • Reply 46 of 106
    isteelersisteelers Posts: 738member
    "Gates keen insight in "not wishing" that Microsoft had developed the iPad helped to spare the company from another disastrous "Zune" or "KIN," which might have been fatal, especially considering the financial hardship the company was already enduring from the spectacular failure of Surface, a netbook that could disassemble itself into a paperweight and an expensive, rubbery keyboard."


    Microsoft has a market capitalization of $233.5 billion dollars. In other words, the "trouble" that Microsoft is allegedly in now is a rip-roaring steam of success compared to the real trouble that Apple was in for quite awhile, such as when Steve Jobs was forced out in the 1980s where he founded NeXT (failed venture) and in the 1990s when Microsoft invested $150 million in Apple to keep it from going under: 

    http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-12-09/worst-deal-ever-microsofts-apple-investment
    Gates depicted it as an altruistic move, but it was likely done to keep the federal government from filing another anti-trust suit against Microsoft.

    And as a corrective to the myth that Microsoft got rich by copying Apple, the truth is that Microsoft and Gates locked up the non-Apple PC business by providing MS-DOS to IBM for IBM's wildly successful PC line, and then propagating it to the IBM PC clones that IBM accidentally created. Microsoft got MS-DOS by getting 86-DOS from Seattle Computer Products. Seattle Computer Products got 86-DOS by porting CP/M from Digital Research. 

    Also, Microsoft introduced a tablet computer in 1999, years before the I-Pad. It was merely a failure, as were plenty of new product ideas from Microsoft and Apple during the 1990s. 

    Further, Microsoft Basic preceded AppleSoft Basic. Gates and Allen sold the predecessor to Microsoft Basic to a hardware company called MITS in 1976. It was Microsoft's first contract. AppleSoft Basic was not even the first Apple Basic: that was Integer Basic, which came along in 1977 for the Apple I. Apple copied Microsoft Basic for their own AppleSoft Basic for the Apple II. How do we know they copied it? Because Microsoft gave Microsoft Basic to Apple so they could do so. Microsoft's first hardware product? A card that allowed the Apple II to run business software, which was a critical market for any computer company in the late 70s/early 80s as the consumer market hadn't taken off yet. So had it not been for the critical early help that Microsoft gave Apple (giving them a far superior version of Basic to the one that Wozniak developed and giving them the ability to run business software) Apple never would have survived.

    And oh yes, Microsoft's first iteration of Microsoft Word came out in 1983, and was written for their failed attempt at marketing a UNIX-based operating system, Xenix.

    So basically none of the nonsense in this article concerning Microsoft is remotely true. And Apple certainly hopes not, because if Microsoft goes belly up, who is going to host Apple's vital I-Cloud product? Microsoft Azure does so for the most part now, with some redundancy being handled by Amazon AWS EC2. Just like the claim that Microsoft released Office for I-Pad first because of "internal sales data" showing that the only Android tablets that are selling are the $50 toys. The reality is that Office Mobile for Android already exists, and full blown Office for Android will come out later this year in order to compete with Google Docs.

    It is one thing to write editorials, but to make claims that are incontrovertibly false is beyond the pale. Apple would never have been a viable company without Microsoft's software and hardware in the late 1970s, and Apple would probably have gone bankrupt without Microsoft's cash in the 1990s. That is the truth no matter how this author wants to deny it. This stuff is actually beyond the bizarre "I have never seen an Android tablet in the wild" claims (which if were true, no one would still make and sell them) or the "no one buys those Samsung tablets at Best Buy nonsense" (again, were it true, Best Buy would stop selling it just they have with a ton of other failed products). 

    So just like Apple needed Microsoft yet again for their I-Cloud service because Apple lacks the ability to do it on their own, Microsoft is going to remain to provided critical assistance to Apple whenever they need it like they have in the past. Windows is dead/dying, but Microsoft can make as much money off the cloud and by solidifying their hold on enterprise software by accommodating every single major OS/manufacturer (yes, including Android and ChromeOS) instead of forcing everyone to try to use Windows. (And imagine if Natella figures out something innovative to do with the boatload of wasted potential that is XBox.) 

    Bottom line: Microsoft, Google, Samsung et al aren't going anywhere no matter how many  yarns this fellow spins.

    Gates's investment was a settlement of a lawsuit for stealing Apple's IP. Along with that he was to continue to make Office for the Mac. Although Apple could have used the money they were not on the verge of bankruptcy like so many have reported.
  • Reply 47 of 106
    "

    Apple would never have been a viable company without Microsoft's software and hardware in the late 1970s


    Err ... VisiCalc ... USCD Pascal ... Corvus Shared Hard Disk ...

    From my personal experience:
    • Almost every enterprise in Silicon Valley bought Apple ][ computers. floppy drives, printers, etc. so they could run VisiCalc.* VisiCalc was largely used to bypass the long lead time (18-24 months) to get apps implemented by CIS (then Data Processing)
    • The UCSD Pascal programming language was far superior to BASIC for programming custom business applications and generalized apps such as database systems.
    • Corvus shared HDDs allowed larger/shared VisiCalc files and application files.


    * Our clients included Apple, IBM, Fairchild Shlumberger, Applied Materials, Thorne EMI, Daimler Benz, Xerox, HP, various State and Local governments, Universities, School Districts. etc.

    MicroSoft had nothing to do with any of this!
  • Reply 48 of 106
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 10,557member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post

     

    I never understood why the media and others do not go back and follow-up with these people and ask them to explain why they were completely wrong and why should anyone trust anything they have to say about the future.

     

    It is like those people who run around saying the world is about to end and everyone need to prepare themselves for judgement day, that day has come and gone how many times in recent years and no on going back and ask these people to explain first why they were wrong and what happen and ask them why anyone should ever believe them going forward.

     

    AI should attempt to get an interview with all these folks and ask them to explain themselves.


     

    Someone actually did go back to Dvorak for an explanation of his iPhone predictions. Of course he claimed it was Apple’s fault because they didn’t provide him with an iPhone to review in advance. So he didn’t know the iPhone was, in fact, a revolutionary product. It was all Apple’s fault!

    Dvorak also once tried to explain his grossly inaccurate predictions about Apple by claiming he enjoyed pushing the buttons of Apple fans by writing incendiary articles. You see, these guys can explain everything and it’s NEVER their fault or their ineptitude. 

  • Reply 49 of 106
    hcehce Posts: 19member
    What? No Rob Enderle?

    - HCE
  • Reply 50 of 106
    Dvorak has been a veritable Schrödinger's cat throughout his career, cooped up in a box isolated from any outside influence of reality. His possible exposure to some sort of toxic experiment has created a quantum paradox where Dvorak is perpetually both writing and wronging at the same time, an uncertainty that must be seen to be believed.

    This has got to be the best piece of writing on this site! Thanks for the laughs, DED.
  • Reply 51 of 106
    brlawyerbrlawyer Posts: 828member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mcmach View Post



    Congratulations on an article which is the very definition of sarcasam. Good read.

     

    Good article - but I cannot fail to praise the good ol' Apple Death Knell Counter - priceless!!!

     

    http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/death_knell

  • Reply 52 of 106
    philboogiephilboogie Posts: 7,675member
    ^ post

    Another from the cookie jar - thank you!
  • Reply 53 of 106
    Don't be too hard on Dvorak... I don't think he ever was anti-Apple, and was the rear-leaf columnist for MacUser back in the 90s. Lest anyone think I don't have a sense of humor, I get the point of this article... but in my opinion, Dvorak doesn't deserve the sarcasm quite as much as the other three.
  • Reply 54 of 106
    clemynxclemynx Posts: 1,552member
    Great article. Makes me think of The Macalope a little.
  • Reply 55 of 106
    lantznlantzn Posts: 240member
    Haha it's April 1st and I can see how that applies to the first visionaries mentioned but then Dvorak in the finish? I guess he's just an April fool all year long when it comes to Apple. And to think one of his main goals was/is to get Apple fans bent out of shape with his comments when in reality he's completely bent out of shape himself.
  • Reply 56 of 106
    asciiascii Posts: 5,936member

    I think Bill Gates, and other people who underestimated the iPad, underestimated the importance of mobility in opening up new applications for computers. Apple's Life on iPad videos show this. I wonder if people who are underestimating the impact of a wristwatch computer are making the same mistake?

  • Reply 57 of 106
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 13,002member
    ascii wrote: »
    I think Bill Gates, and other people who underestimated the iPad, underestimated the importance of mobility in opening up new applications for computers. Apple's Life on iPad videos show this. I wonder if people who are underestimating the impact of a wristwatch computer are making the same mistake?

    Bill Gates knew mobile computing was the wave of the future. His implementation of it is what was way off.
  • Reply 58 of 106
    jamupjamup Posts: 1member
    Calling out Michael Dell and John Dvorak were spot on. I probably would have substituted Steve Balmer for Bill Gates. Balmer has made so many incredibly dumb Applehater comments over the years, but I suppose his retirement spared him!
  • Reply 59 of 106
    dewme wrote: »
    I used to enjoy reading John Dvorak's articles in PC Magazine since way back and he even had an entertaining cable TV show for a while. I'll cut him some slack because he has had some good insight on the PC side of things over the years. But holy cow, when it comes to Apple he'd be best served by just staying as far away from that topic and subject matter as possible to avoid catastrophic buffoonery implosion (CBI). That would be an unfortunate end to an otherwise respectable career.

    When it comes to seeing a market disrupter at work, John Dvorak can only see the tried and tired old way of doing things... That's why he's so good at seeing where Microsoft is slowly chugging away at things... The Apple train had left the station 14 years ago, Dvorak, Gates, and Ballmer were left behind and totally clueless that a way of doing things has changed...even while still waiting at the station after the rails and ties were ripped up as they stood there, ticket in hand.
  • Reply 60 of 106
    dasanman69 wrote: »
    Bill Gates knew mobile computing was the wave of the future. His implementation of it is what was way off.

    It was more then implementation that was way off.
    "Microsoft has no taste." — Steve Jobs


    If Microsoft made a table computer it would have battery-burning multi-tasking, run full windows and require a fan, be too big to fit on one's lap, Be so heavy the user would use it on a table, and ... oh wait!
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