First off i never said that this was going to be $750 with 100% certainty.
Second you said the stock was way too expensive at $570 a month ago.
It's the way you promoted it, you make it sound like it's an absolute. I'm just cautious when it comes to investing based on media hype. I just would rather invest in Apple when the P/E is at a lower point at this time in their situation since they aren't in high growth mode. I don't have the same confidence level that they will continue at a 15 to 20% yearly growth rate in terms of gross revenue, net profit and good margins. I'm looking at the trend lines for each of their revenue steams. Want bothers me the most is if Cook is hyping the iPad as the area of growth and the last quarter to quarter growth was down,it makes me nervous. I hope they do have lots of growth but I have to have better confidence in their actual performance. I see the iPod losing steam and would like to see some product refreshes that I haven't seen yet, I would like to see shifts how they roll out iPhones so they don't have these drastic ups and downs with their sales cycles, If you look at eah of their product lines they have this seesaw effect and I would like to see more evenly spaced out product releases to minimize those ups and downs throughout the year and sse a nice upward trend line. I also don't have much confidence in the Beats buyout, none of the three players have a proven track record for building a successful subscription service. I just don't see the Beats app being that great. I tried it, I've tried Spotify and I don't like either of them. I also am looking at it from a perspective of it probably going to take a while for it to get it's act together to be something spectacular, but I don't see the current team doing it. Yes, from my perspective I thought it was say too high. I looked at the 12 month P/E ratio and going into the summer months and knowing that many times when a stock spits it can go down because of profit taking because they an easily just sell off a portion of their holdings. This stock has gone up rather fast and I think a lot of it is based some amounts of hype. I don't like getting caught in these frenzies. What happens if you wake up and because of the stock split or their new earnings report for this quarter comes out and it drops back down? It takes the wind out and then it takes a while to recover. I also told you I wanted to WAIT to make a judgement until AFTER WWDC. WWDC is next week.
You are going off of hindsight, and hindsight is 20/20. And when you get high on yourself, that's when you have to caution. You acted overly confident and you acted like it's going to hit your number by the end of the year without anything to back up your statement. You ran no analysis of your own or are you just believing what an analyst says as long as it makes you feel your stock is going to go up. I know that feeling well. What's the concesus with Wall Sreet? At the time we discussed it, it wasn't that great and I wasn't that confident from my own analysis at the time which I look at. If I don't feel confident, and then I look at what Wall Streett says and it's close to what I think BEFORE looking at their evaluations! then I'm cautious. It's one thing to announce great products, but it has to create an increase in demand and most importantly the company has to SHIP it and still grow from the prior year. Can they do it? I don't know, they didn't do a very good job last year. Then you compound it with various high level management people leaving due to retiring at the same time? I don't know.. I'm waiting for next week to see what happens. Again, YOU OWN STOCK, so you are already going to do whatever you can to damage the reputation of someone that goes against YOU? I'm not doing that. You asked me my opinion and I gave it and I gave what I feel it's going to take for me to think differently and until I see it, I don't just change my position just because the stock goes up or because one analyst releases their opinion. I don't like buying stocks right before a stock split and I'm not a short term player like you. So maybe that's the difference. Either way, no one has a perfect track record at predicting future stock values. Not me,not Wall Street and not you. Right now, you are doing well, but it doesn't you are always going to do well. I don't watch Apple stock on a minute by minute basis because I don't own any and I'm not planning on buying any in the near future, even if it took a huge hit which it can.
You just don't like someone being honest that doesn't buy into everything about Apple to promote your ability to make money on their stock.
Buying large blocks of stock back is what raises the stock price, but it only lasts so long. they only bought the stock less than a quarter ago when they bought the stock the day they made the stock split announcement. The stock split hasn't even taken effect yet. Let's see what happens. I didn't say it was going to down or up afterwards, but I know that there is a likelihood of it going down due to some sell offs because it made a large run up, partially due to Apple's stock buyback and Icahn's investment. And? There's some media attention which causes some frenzy. And? So what?
1) You did write, "We will see $750 this year." which was not qualified in any way.
2) Based on his comments he probably did mean it's overpriced and going to drop but the use of expensive is one I put very closely to value which is specific to the purchaser so I'd have to say that he's probably in the clear if he did use that term.
I didn't say it was GOING to drop, I said that when a stock spits they have been known to drop right after the stock split takes place, which it hasn't yet. I said I have to wait until AFTER that happens. I also mentioned that typically high tech stocks don't do well in the summer months as Apple stock dropped during the summer months last year and we are just ENTERING the summer months.
I said it was expensive based on the 12 month P/E ratio. to me, it's still expensive. I don't like buying this type of stock (not in hyper growth mode that's becoming more of a dividend stock) when it's at a 12 month high point in the P/E ratio. But you left that out. You leave a LOT of things out when you do your twisting of what was said.
Stop sound biting what I said, you take things out of context and I CLEARLY STATED that i was just cautious and I was advising people that bought that point to be prepared to do dividend re-investments and dollar cost averaging should it go down.
What happened after last year's WWDC? The stock went down if I remember correctly. Go look up last year during this time frame. It started to go DOWN during the summer months.
Jeezus H Christ. You idiots make me sick to even KNOW you guys exist.
You just twist words and take things out of context and STOP sound biting it shows immaturity. Seriously STOP YOUR BS.
You just don't like someone being honest that doesn't buy into everything about Apple to promote your ability to make money on their stock.
LOL that you believe you're being honest. You can't even be honest when you made sweeping racial comments about rap music isn't music because it's just a bunch talent thugs committing crimes.
LOL that you believe you're being honest. You can't even be honest when you made sweeping racial comments about rap music isn't music because it's just a bunch talent thugs committing crimes.
It's not based on race, it's based on the mentality behind it and what it promotes and represents and it has nothing to do with racial thoughts.
I'm referring to Dr. Dre and the type of rap that he produces and yes, when I hear a rapper with some really good jazz or some other form of music other than RAP music, rapping degrades the listening experience and I turn it off. I've only run into a couple of songs that I've been able to listen to more than once that had rapping in it. It's VERY rare to hear a song where I can listen to it. But they were much older rap songs and in those songs, there were actual musicians involved with the music portion and there was also some REAL melody lines using REAL notes on a musical scale so it was done with some degree of musicianship. But the c-rap that's going on now that Dre does is disgusting especially the lyrics on his songs that he's done or the people he produces.
Please get off this racial BS because I have said that it's NOT the color of the skin, white people and other people of other skin color and racial backgrounds are also very much part of it.
You just can't seem to get off your own line of BS because you are in denial. You live in denial. STOP IT. You just seem to think that people that don't like rap are racist against blacks? Umm. If i really wanted to spend more time on this, I could get a bunch of YouTube videos of blacks that are outspoken that make fun of and don't like rap music. You should see what some of the black comedians say about the rappers. Check out Steve Harvey. He makes fun of them because he doesn't even understand them because they don't speak English and there is too much hate in rap music.
LOL that you believe you're being honest. You can't even be honest when you made sweeping racial comments about rap music isn't music because it's just a bunch talent thugs committing crimes.
You obviously have selective reading comprehension.
There have been a couple, only a COUPLE, of rap songs I can tolerate, but they are old songs but they had actual musicians on them. White Lines is one of them. The Run DMC version of Walk this Way was humorous and I kind of liked it when it first came out, the video is what made the song better as just listening to it got old pretty fast, but the video is what was kind of humorous, but I wouldn't say it's super high quality that I would say represents what Dre is all about. Dre's more into derogatory illiterate crap. but I don't normally listen to rap music nor would I promote saying that it's great and that it should be part of Apple upper management and what Apple's all about. I think they made a HUGE mistake and I don't like illiterate crap REGARDLESS of the skin color of the people creating it. I can't stand EMINEM. I think he and his music is total crap. Does that mean I am a racist because of it? He's white and I'm white.
You just select the words you want to use and create and publish a false perspective. You are manipulative and therefor you mean NOTHING to me.
Apple has SAVED $13.5 billion dollars on the buyback already.
They can use the shares they bought back for acquisitions (they used $500,000,000 on the Beats deal) and employee stock compensation plans. Theoretically they could buy Netflix or another company with shares. In effect they would be buying that company at a 30% discount. Genius move.
Now I wait for all the people who hated the stock buyback to apologize to Apple. They saved shareholders $13,500,000,000 so far.
If they hadn't retired the shares, they'd have more value in volatile stock than they'd have in their non-volatile cash used to buy them. They did retire the shares though.
The buyback and other things created upwards momentum in the stock price. If the next earnings show further slowing down, traders can easy undo the gains in a matter of days. At which point you'd say what? It's all Tim's fault and he needs to go?
Let's say that Apple uses all their cash to buyback shares and retire them, what are they supposed to use to make acquisitions? They'd have nothing. This is what Icahn was suggesting and you were cheering him on. The Beats deal was done mostly with cash. A limited buyback made sense with so much cash for the purposes of making the situation better for Apple's shareholders and that's what they did.
It will be interesting to see Apple's results in a couple of weeks, especially given recent profit warning from Samsung. Having lots of market share may be good but not making much money is bad. That's Samsung's conundrum today - their flagship Galaxy S5 has not sold all that well (starting out with a two-for-one deal at some carriers). My guess is that iPhone 5s, and even the "failed" 5c, will show impressive numbers.
The story for this current quarter (Q3, Apple's Q4) will probably be much quieter with lots of people waiting for iPhone 6. And then we might expect a massive Christmas quarter for Apple.
Comments
Stop being an idiot. :no:
It's the way you promoted it, you make it sound like it's an absolute. I'm just cautious when it comes to investing based on media hype. I just would rather invest in Apple when the P/E is at a lower point at this time in their situation since they aren't in high growth mode. I don't have the same confidence level that they will continue at a 15 to 20% yearly growth rate in terms of gross revenue, net profit and good margins. I'm looking at the trend lines for each of their revenue steams. Want bothers me the most is if Cook is hyping the iPad as the area of growth and the last quarter to quarter growth was down,it makes me nervous. I hope they do have lots of growth but I have to have better confidence in their actual performance. I see the iPod losing steam and would like to see some product refreshes that I haven't seen yet, I would like to see shifts how they roll out iPhones so they don't have these drastic ups and downs with their sales cycles, If you look at eah of their product lines they have this seesaw effect and I would like to see more evenly spaced out product releases to minimize those ups and downs throughout the year and sse a nice upward trend line. I also don't have much confidence in the Beats buyout, none of the three players have a proven track record for building a successful subscription service. I just don't see the Beats app being that great. I tried it, I've tried Spotify and I don't like either of them. I also am looking at it from a perspective of it probably going to take a while for it to get it's act together to be something spectacular, but I don't see the current team doing it. Yes, from my perspective I thought it was say too high. I looked at the 12 month P/E ratio and going into the summer months and knowing that many times when a stock spits it can go down because of profit taking because they an easily just sell off a portion of their holdings. This stock has gone up rather fast and I think a lot of it is based some amounts of hype. I don't like getting caught in these frenzies. What happens if you wake up and because of the stock split or their new earnings report for this quarter comes out and it drops back down? It takes the wind out and then it takes a while to recover. I also told you I wanted to WAIT to make a judgement until AFTER WWDC. WWDC is next week.
You are going off of hindsight, and hindsight is 20/20. And when you get high on yourself, that's when you have to caution. You acted overly confident and you acted like it's going to hit your number by the end of the year without anything to back up your statement. You ran no analysis of your own or are you just believing what an analyst says as long as it makes you feel your stock is going to go up. I know that feeling well. What's the concesus with Wall Sreet? At the time we discussed it, it wasn't that great and I wasn't that confident from my own analysis at the time which I look at. If I don't feel confident, and then I look at what Wall Streett says and it's close to what I think BEFORE looking at their evaluations! then I'm cautious. It's one thing to announce great products, but it has to create an increase in demand and most importantly the company has to SHIP it and still grow from the prior year. Can they do it? I don't know, they didn't do a very good job last year. Then you compound it with various high level management people leaving due to retiring at the same time? I don't know.. I'm waiting for next week to see what happens. Again, YOU OWN STOCK, so you are already going to do whatever you can to damage the reputation of someone that goes against YOU? I'm not doing that. You asked me my opinion and I gave it and I gave what I feel it's going to take for me to think differently and until I see it, I don't just change my position just because the stock goes up or because one analyst releases their opinion. I don't like buying stocks right before a stock split and I'm not a short term player like you. So maybe that's the difference. Either way, no one has a perfect track record at predicting future stock values. Not me,not Wall Street and not you. Right now, you are doing well, but it doesn't you are always going to do well. I don't watch Apple stock on a minute by minute basis because I don't own any and I'm not planning on buying any in the near future, even if it took a huge hit which it can.
You just don't like someone being honest that doesn't buy into everything about Apple to promote your ability to make money on their stock.
Buying large blocks of stock back is what raises the stock price, but it only lasts so long. they only bought the stock less than a quarter ago when they bought the stock the day they made the stock split announcement. The stock split hasn't even taken effect yet. Let's see what happens. I didn't say it was going to down or up afterwards, but I know that there is a likelihood of it going down due to some sell offs because it made a large run up, partially due to Apple's stock buyback and Icahn's investment. And? There's some media attention which causes some frenzy. And? So what?
1) You did write, "We will see $750 this year." which was not qualified in any way.
2) Based on his comments he probably did mean it's overpriced and going to drop but the use of expensive is one I put very closely to value which is specific to the purchaser so I'd have to say that he's probably in the clear if he did use that term.
I didn't say it was GOING to drop, I said that when a stock spits they have been known to drop right after the stock split takes place, which it hasn't yet. I said I have to wait until AFTER that happens. I also mentioned that typically high tech stocks don't do well in the summer months as Apple stock dropped during the summer months last year and we are just ENTERING the summer months.
I said it was expensive based on the 12 month P/E ratio. to me, it's still expensive. I don't like buying this type of stock (not in hyper growth mode that's becoming more of a dividend stock) when it's at a 12 month high point in the P/E ratio. But you left that out. You leave a LOT of things out when you do your twisting of what was said.
Stop sound biting what I said, you take things out of context and I CLEARLY STATED that i was just cautious and I was advising people that bought that point to be prepared to do dividend re-investments and dollar cost averaging should it go down.
What happened after last year's WWDC? The stock went down if I remember correctly. Go look up last year during this time frame. It started to go DOWN during the summer months.
Jeezus H Christ. You idiots make me sick to even KNOW you guys exist.
You just twist words and take things out of context and STOP sound biting it shows immaturity. Seriously STOP YOUR BS.
LOL that you believe you're being honest. You can't even be honest when you made sweeping racial comments about rap music isn't music because it's just a bunch talent thugs committing crimes.
Dude just admit you got it wrong.
You said $570 was too high of a price to pay. One month latter and we hit $644. You were dead wrong. I was right. Just admit it and move on.
What you do with your money is not my concern. If anyone says he can guarantee you a 15% return its a scam.
We see $700 before year end. 90% confidence,
We see $750 before year end. 75% confidence.
Changing your story now? I guess we shouldn't "BOOK IT" should we?
Actually, it's impossible to hit those numbers in a post split since it will go down due to the 7:1 split. /s
LOL that you believe you're being honest. You can't even be honest when you made sweeping racial comments about rap music isn't music because it's just a bunch talent thugs committing crimes.
It's not based on race, it's based on the mentality behind it and what it promotes and represents and it has nothing to do with racial thoughts.
I'm referring to Dr. Dre and the type of rap that he produces and yes, when I hear a rapper with some really good jazz or some other form of music other than RAP music, rapping degrades the listening experience and I turn it off. I've only run into a couple of songs that I've been able to listen to more than once that had rapping in it. It's VERY rare to hear a song where I can listen to it. But they were much older rap songs and in those songs, there were actual musicians involved with the music portion and there was also some REAL melody lines using REAL notes on a musical scale so it was done with some degree of musicianship. But the c-rap that's going on now that Dre does is disgusting especially the lyrics on his songs that he's done or the people he produces.
Please get off this racial BS because I have said that it's NOT the color of the skin, white people and other people of other skin color and racial backgrounds are also very much part of it.
You just can't seem to get off your own line of BS because you are in denial. You live in denial. STOP IT. You just seem to think that people that don't like rap are racist against blacks? Umm. If i really wanted to spend more time on this, I could get a bunch of YouTube videos of blacks that are outspoken that make fun of and don't like rap music. You should see what some of the black comedians say about the rappers. Check out Steve Harvey. He makes fun of them because he doesn't even understand them because they don't speak English and there is too much hate in rap music.
LOL that you believe you're being honest. You can't even be honest when you made sweeping racial comments about rap music isn't music because it's just a bunch talent thugs committing crimes.
You obviously have selective reading comprehension.
There have been a couple, only a COUPLE, of rap songs I can tolerate, but they are old songs but they had actual musicians on them. White Lines is one of them. The Run DMC version of Walk this Way was humorous and I kind of liked it when it first came out, the video is what made the song better as just listening to it got old pretty fast, but the video is what was kind of humorous, but I wouldn't say it's super high quality that I would say represents what Dre is all about. Dre's more into derogatory illiterate crap. but I don't normally listen to rap music nor would I promote saying that it's great and that it should be part of Apple upper management and what Apple's all about. I think they made a HUGE mistake and I don't like illiterate crap REGARDLESS of the skin color of the people creating it. I can't stand EMINEM. I think he and his music is total crap. Does that mean I am a racist because of it? He's white and I'm white.
You just select the words you want to use and create and publish a false perspective. You are manipulative and therefor you mean NOTHING to me.
Sure, keep telling yourself that.
Sure, keep telling yourself that.
I'm telling YOU this hoping that maybe you'll realize that you NEED to change your own personal BS. Seriously.
We'll just see how long Dre will be with Apple... I'm just waiting for WWDC to see if there is going to be anything the new PR person has to clean up.
Interesting that no one has mentioned Icahn’s insider trading.
insider trading is if Ichan had secret knowledge about Apple that an average investor does not.
there is no proof that Ichan got such trade secrets from Apple.
And it’s not about Apple, but still.
Maybe he'll get Martha Stewarts old cell.
If they hadn't retired the shares, they'd have more value in volatile stock than they'd have in their non-volatile cash used to buy them. They did retire the shares though.
The buyback and other things created upwards momentum in the stock price. If the next earnings show further slowing down, traders can easy undo the gains in a matter of days. At which point you'd say what? It's all Tim's fault and he needs to go?
Let's say that Apple uses all their cash to buyback shares and retire them, what are they supposed to use to make acquisitions? They'd have nothing. This is what Icahn was suggesting and you were cheering him on. The Beats deal was done mostly with cash. A limited buyback made sense with so much cash for the purposes of making the situation better for Apple's shareholders and that's what they did.
It will be interesting to see Apple's results in a couple of weeks, especially given recent profit warning from Samsung. Having lots of market share may be good but not making much money is bad. That's Samsung's conundrum today - their flagship Galaxy S5 has not sold all that well (starting out with a two-for-one deal at some carriers). My guess is that iPhone 5s, and even the "failed" 5c, will show impressive numbers.
The story for this current quarter (Q3, Apple's Q4) will probably be much quieter with lots of people waiting for iPhone 6. And then we might expect a massive Christmas quarter for Apple.