Being held by large mutual funds doesn't make a stock blue chip. Blue chip stock are viewed as a safe investment because many of those companies grow but it's a slow growth. I think Apple still falls under a medium risk (so there's going to be a lot of buying and selling instead of buying and holding), especially since the market they make products for is finicky. Investors see what happened to BB, Palm, and Nokia, and they're not entirely convinced that the same can't happen to Apple.
I think Sog was just pointing out that I was wrong about Apple not being held by investment houses... but he might have also been using that as an argument for Apple's blue chip status, I'm not sure. I agree with the former... but not the latter... or at least that there's not a correlation between the two.
While I agree you about computers having reached a power threshold that is beyond that of a normal user (I mean, seriously, how many users really need an i7? My i5 iMac plays Tomb Raider perfectly, though I guess that has more to do with the GPU than anything ...) but I would have to say that the inclusion of Fusion Drives has been a huge upgrade to the line.
I agree, however, I can create a Fusion Drive in my iMac. A Fusion Drive is basically software controlling the contents of two disparate hard drives. There have been people that have created a Fusion Drive out of an internal HD and en external SSD (not that it's very practical).
My poor DVD drive is basically dead - way too much r!pping. So I could replace it with an SSD and create a Fusion Drive. There are even kits for doing that.
Last year was the first year they did not have an event during the first half of the year - this was only the second time that has happened.
2008: Jan (Macbook Air at Macworld), Mar (iPhone Roadmap, App Store Intro, Notebooks (Unibody Intro), June (WWDC - iPhone 3G and App Store Live), Sept (iTunes &iPod - Itouch intro), Oct (New Unibody Macbooks)
2009: Jan (1st 1Pad), Mar (iOS 3.0 Intro), June (WWDC- iPhone 3gs), Sept (iPod & iTunes)
2010: April (Early iOS4 intro) Jun (WWDC - iPhone 4), Sept (iPod & iTunes), Oct (Back to Mac event - Lion Preview, redesigned macbook air)
2011: Mar (preview of iOS5 and iCloud), June (WWDC), Oct (iPhone 4s)
2012: Jan (iBooks 2.0), March (iPad 3), June (WWDC, Macbook Pro Retina), Sept (iPhone 5), Oct (iPad Mini, 4th Gen iPad, 13: Macbook w/Retina)
2013: June (WWDC), Sept (iPhone 5s & 5c), Oct (iPad updates - Retina)
2014: June (WWDC)
But when you go and loom at what those events consisted of they were primarily advance previews of iOS. In 2008 it was the intro of the app Store and thus needed to be put out these or no one would come to WWDC . 2011 was really the only year with a hardware update, sans 2008 which was a Macworld unveiling of the original Macbook Air. Typically all hardware had been moved to the second half of the cal year. This is also prime buying season w/ holiday shopping for year end.
BB, Palm, Nokia even at their absolute peak is not even close to what Apple is.
Even at BB absolute peak their market cap was a mere $70B.
Nokia's peak was about $60B.
Palm peak was $55B.
Add those 3 companies together at their ABSOLUTE PEAK and multiple that by THREE and you still would be short of Apples $580B market cap. None of those companies had an ecosystem even close to Apple or the branding power. They are totally different animals. Its like comparing McDonalds with Dirk's Burger Palace.
Having a higher market cap scares investors. Many of them believe that the only way from that high up is down. They don't take Apple's intangibles into consideration. They've seen companies come and go, and heavyweights getting knocked out. In their eyes Apple is no different.
Analysts be damned, but they are not the only ones that see Apple as ignoring existing parts of their product line, or forging any new ventures into new product lines.
The Mac lineup has seen nothing of significance in 2014.
The AppleTV is full of potential, and long overdue for some treatment.
The iWatch doesn't exist, and probably will not in 2014.
iPhone and iOS updates are coming as expected, but they are the lifeline of the entire company..if they weren't coming, there would be panic in the streets.
iPad is going strong, but will need some new life breathed into it to drive upgrades. New customer sales of iPad aren't enough to drive growth of the category.
CarPlay isn't much of an initiative worth talking about, as it will probably be replaced by something else before it ever sees widespread usage. (read: Usage not the same as Deployment or Planned Deployment).
OS X seeing a step forward with Yosemite, but the lack of polish on it at this stage of development and the promise of Photos.app not until 2015 makes it look like a second class citizen. Honestly, I'm really bothered and concerned by Photos not coming until 2015. Calls into question a lot about their ability to get things done, and resources they can dedicate to multiple projects.
If I missed anything please let me know.
If I didn't clarify, I'm not concerned about how much money Apple is making. No one in their right mind would be. What concerns me is whether or not Apple is doing the best it could be doing in all areas of its business.
Remember its July. 2014 isn't over and if you look at previous product launches/announcements, the hardware primarily is released in this second half of the year in the Sept-Oct time frame.
iPad's new life will come in two fronts. IBM partnership will likely be the largest since this will help propel the iPad into larger adoption in the corp environment, Second will be hardware enhancements to the iPad, including TouchID. This will give many, myself included, a reason to update. TouchID will be very handy for quick access to unlocking and using a device as well as a developers ability to utilize the TouchID API. This too will help corporate adoption.
I wouldn't call Carplay out. It is just starting to roll out in cars. If I was getting a new car, I would want this installed vs. the USB dongle. Again this is a vertical integration initiative to retain customers and provide the ability to use iOS in more and more places.
Why is Photos in 2015 a large deal? Do you not have iPhoto or the use of Aperture now or when Yosemite is released? To me the key is getting the two OS's not just polished but working as advertised. Photo's is a big undertaking and Apple doesn't completely re-write their core apps often. But, the release may set the stage for providing additional hardware or software announcements if done as a Press Invite type event.
I believe with the latest OS releases, Apple has set the stage/foundation for a harmonious working product line and ecosystem. Unmatched by any competitor. I think we will see hardware and software releases that will work seamlessly with this vision.
I agree, however, I can create a Fusion Drive in my iMac. A Fusion Drive is basically software controlling the contents of two disparate hard drives. There have been people that have created a Fusion Drive out of an internal HD and en external SSD (not that it's very practical).
My poor DVD drive is basically dead - way too much r!pping. So I could replace it with an SSD and create a Fusion Drive. There are even kits for doing that.
Oh of course. But most people, let's face it, wouldn't have the slightest clue how to do that.
Like I showed those 'heavyweights' are literally 10x smaller than Apple.
Apple is in a category of its own. Investors prefer a market with several 'big' players jocking for position, and sharing the pie. Now that pie has only Apple (a super duper heavyweight), Samsung (a iffy middleweight), and a bunch of lightweights. To them domination like that is unsustainable long term.
Typically all hardware had been moved to the second half of the cal year. This is also prime buying season w/ holiday shopping for year end.
Products released during the first half of the year...
2007 Jan (iPhone, AppleTV - MacWorld)
2008 Jan (MacBook Air - MacWorld), Jun (iPhone 3G intro, released in July)
2009 Jan (17" Unibody Macbook Pro at MacWorld), Jun (iPhone 3GS)
2010 Jan (iPad 1 intro), Jun (iPhone 4)
2011 Mar (iPad 2 intro)
2012 Mar (iPad 3 intro), Jun (MacBook Pro w/ Retina)
2013 Jun (Mac Pro sneak peak)
2014 none
In 2013, all hardware had been moved to the second half of the year (damn near the last quarter). And I believe they did so, because 2012 was the last time they had an event for the iPod, and didn't have anything new to release (and haven't since), so the iPad event was moved to the Fall in 2013.
That's not what I meant. I was just curious if people were still talking about such an inane subject.
(PS: I have a number of people on block, so there are a good number of messages that I don't see.)
They weren't talking about market share. They were talking about saturation. How much of the high end market does Apple have in high end phones. If the number is really high then one should be able to reasonably assume that sales will be slowing down at some point. I didn't say "ending"... just slowing down. Which is what we are seeing. Apple still sells more phones yoy but the percentage over the year before is no longer what it used to be. The chance for wildly exceptional growth numbers as we've seen in the past is no longer there.
That's what is being said... not market share. Rather, Apple's share of its market.
They weren't talking about market share. They were talking about saturation. How much of the high end market does Apple have in high end phones. If the number is really high then one should be able to reasonably assume that sales will be slowing down at some point. I didn't say "ending"... just slowing down. Which is what we are seeing. Apple still sells more phones yoy but the percentage over the year before is no longer what it used to be. The chance for wildly exceptional growth numbers as we've seen in the past is no longer there.
That's what is being said... not market share. Rather, Apple's share of its market.
We'll see when the "6" is released (really hoping they just call it "iPhone" personally.
We'll see when the "6" is released (really hoping they just call it "iPhone" personally.
I get that... but let's say that Apple has 20% yoy in the fiscal 1st quarter... 64 million phones. Then what?
Not that Apple would be doing badly. Hardly.
Rather... no matter what, you are probably not going to see the wild growth that you saw between 2007 and 2012... unless Apple can come up with another product category that is successful as the iPhone.
Rather... no matter what, you are probably not going to see the wild growth that you saw between 2007 and 2012... unless Apple can come up with another product category that is successful as the iPhone.
They don't necessarily have to come up with another category as successful as the iPhone... They could very well introduce (have) several products, that are moderately successful.
They have the iPod*, which has languished the past couple of years. They could simplify and diversify that line from a simple media player, health/fitness tracking devices, mobile gaming/entertainment devices. (*I know everyone poo-poos the iPod because sales are down and they haven't updated them in two years. But what other Apple product went through the same thing? Hmmm... The Mac-freaken-Pro. Everyone thought for sure that was EOL'd and look what they released? A beautiful cylinder of total awesomeness that completely caught everyone off guard. I'm thinking Apple is doing the same to the iPod. Why waste money in incremental updates when you're busy trying to redefine what an iPod is?)
The AppleTV is another product that's ripe to explode and I bet it's going to once Apple gets all the pieces together.
The iPad still has a tremendous opportunity to grow, especially with the recent IBM deal.
And the Mac can also continue to grow, especially if Apple is able to continue to push the prices down without sacrificing anything else. Maybe Apple has an iOS based laptop and AIO desktop** in the works that allows you to use a keyboard and mouse/trackpad? These would be much cheaper than a Mac and have access to the hundreds of thousands of apps, not least of which all the enterprise apps being worked on with IBM. Imagine IBM selling millions of these things to corporations? Bye bye Windows! (**Before anyone goes apesh!t, please note, I am in no way saying Apple will EVER get rid of the Mac. I'd be the first to revolt.)
Comments
Being held by large mutual funds doesn't make a stock blue chip. Blue chip stock are viewed as a safe investment because many of those companies grow but it's a slow growth. I think Apple still falls under a medium risk (so there's going to be a lot of buying and selling instead of buying and holding), especially since the market they make products for is finicky. Investors see what happened to BB, Palm, and Nokia, and they're not entirely convinced that the same can't happen to Apple.
I think Sog was just pointing out that I was wrong about Apple not being held by investment houses... but he might have also been using that as an argument for Apple's blue chip status, I'm not sure. I agree with the former... but not the latter... or at least that there's not a correlation between the two.
While I agree you about computers having reached a power threshold that is beyond that of a normal user (I mean, seriously, how many users really need an i7? My i5 iMac plays Tomb Raider perfectly, though I guess that has more to do with the GPU than anything ...) but I would have to say that the inclusion of Fusion Drives has been a huge upgrade to the line.
I agree, however, I can create a Fusion Drive in my iMac. A Fusion Drive is basically software controlling the contents of two disparate hard drives. There have been people that have created a Fusion Drive out of an internal HD and en external SSD (not that it's very practical).
My poor DVD drive is basically dead - way too much r!pping. So I could replace it with an SSD and create a Fusion Drive. There are even kits for doing that.
Not to side with the troll, but...
Apple Events...
2008: Jan, Mar, Jun, Sep, Oct
2009: Jan, Mar, Jun, Sep
2010: Jan, Apr, Jun, Sep, Oct
2011: Mar, Jun, Oct
2012: Jan, Mar, Jun, Sep, Oct
2013: Jun, Sep, Oct
2014: Jun
Last year was the first year they did not have an event during the first half of the year - this was only the second time that has happened.
2008: Jan (Macbook Air at Macworld), Mar (iPhone Roadmap, App Store Intro, Notebooks (Unibody Intro), June (WWDC - iPhone 3G and App Store Live), Sept (iTunes &iPod - Itouch intro), Oct (New Unibody Macbooks)
2009: Jan (1st 1Pad), Mar (iOS 3.0 Intro), June (WWDC- iPhone 3gs), Sept (iPod & iTunes)
2010: April (Early iOS4 intro) Jun (WWDC - iPhone 4), Sept (iPod & iTunes), Oct (Back to Mac event - Lion Preview, redesigned macbook air)
2011: Mar (preview of iOS5 and iCloud), June (WWDC), Oct (iPhone 4s)
2012: Jan (iBooks 2.0), March (iPad 3), June (WWDC, Macbook Pro Retina), Sept (iPhone 5), Oct (iPad Mini, 4th Gen iPad, 13: Macbook w/Retina)
2013: June (WWDC), Sept (iPhone 5s & 5c), Oct (iPad updates - Retina)
2014: June (WWDC)
But when you go and loom at what those events consisted of they were primarily advance previews of iOS. In 2008 it was the intro of the app Store and thus needed to be put out these or no one would come to WWDC
. 2011 was really the only year with a hardware update, sans 2008 which was a Macworld unveiling of the original Macbook Air. Typically all hardware had been moved to the second half of the cal year. This is also prime buying season w/ holiday shopping for year end.
Having a higher market cap scares investors. Many of them believe that the only way from that high up is down. They don't take Apple's intangibles into consideration. They've seen companies come and go, and heavyweights getting knocked out. In their eyes Apple is no different.
Analysts be damned, but they are not the only ones that see Apple as ignoring existing parts of their product line, or forging any new ventures into new product lines.
The Mac lineup has seen nothing of significance in 2014.
The AppleTV is full of potential, and long overdue for some treatment.
The iWatch doesn't exist, and probably will not in 2014.
iPhone and iOS updates are coming as expected, but they are the lifeline of the entire company..if they weren't coming, there would be panic in the streets.
iPad is going strong, but will need some new life breathed into it to drive upgrades. New customer sales of iPad aren't enough to drive growth of the category.
CarPlay isn't much of an initiative worth talking about, as it will probably be replaced by something else before it ever sees widespread usage. (read: Usage not the same as Deployment or Planned Deployment).
OS X seeing a step forward with Yosemite, but the lack of polish on it at this stage of development and the promise of Photos.app not until 2015 makes it look like a second class citizen. Honestly, I'm really bothered and concerned by Photos not coming until 2015. Calls into question a lot about their ability to get things done, and resources they can dedicate to multiple projects.
If I missed anything please let me know.
If I didn't clarify, I'm not concerned about how much money Apple is making. No one in their right mind would be. What concerns me is whether or not Apple is doing the best it could be doing in all areas of its business.
Remember its July. 2014 isn't over and if you look at previous product launches/announcements, the hardware primarily is released in this second half of the year in the Sept-Oct time frame.
iPad's new life will come in two fronts. IBM partnership will likely be the largest since this will help propel the iPad into larger adoption in the corp environment, Second will be hardware enhancements to the iPad, including TouchID. This will give many, myself included, a reason to update. TouchID will be very handy for quick access to unlocking and using a device as well as a developers ability to utilize the TouchID API. This too will help corporate adoption.
I wouldn't call Carplay out. It is just starting to roll out in cars. If I was getting a new car, I would want this installed vs. the USB dongle. Again this is a vertical integration initiative to retain customers and provide the ability to use iOS in more and more places.
Why is Photos in 2015 a large deal? Do you not have iPhoto or the use of Aperture now or when Yosemite is released? To me the key is getting the two OS's not just polished but working as advertised. Photo's is a big undertaking and Apple doesn't completely re-write their core apps often. But, the release may set the stage for providing additional hardware or software announcements if done as a Press Invite type event.
I believe with the latest OS releases, Apple has set the stage/foundation for a harmonious working product line and ecosystem. Unmatched by any competitor. I think we will see hardware and software releases that will work seamlessly with this vision.
I agree, however, I can create a Fusion Drive in my iMac. A Fusion Drive is basically software controlling the contents of two disparate hard drives. There have been people that have created a Fusion Drive out of an internal HD and en external SSD (not that it's very practical).
My poor DVD drive is basically dead - way too much r!pping. So I could replace it with an SSD and create a Fusion Drive. There are even kits for doing that.
Oh of course. But most people, let's face it, wouldn't have the slightest clue how to do that.
Apple is in a category of its own. Investors prefer a market with several 'big' players jocking for position, and sharing the pie. Now that pie has only Apple (a super duper heavyweight), Samsung (a iffy middleweight), and a bunch of lightweights. To them domination like that is unsustainable long term.
Typically all hardware had been moved to the second half of the cal year. This is also prime buying season w/ holiday shopping for year end.
Products released during the first half of the year...
2007 Jan (iPhone, AppleTV - MacWorld)
2008 Jan (MacBook Air - MacWorld), Jun (iPhone 3G intro, released in July)
2009 Jan (17" Unibody Macbook Pro at MacWorld), Jun (iPhone 3GS)
2010 Jan (iPad 1 intro), Jun (iPhone 4)
2011 Mar (iPad 2 intro)
2012 Mar (iPad 3 intro), Jun (MacBook Pro w/ Retina)
2013 Jun (Mac Pro sneak peak)
2014 none
In 2013, all hardware had been moved to the second half of the year (damn near the last quarter). And I believe they did so, because 2012 was the last time they had an event for the iPod, and didn't have anything new to release (and haven't since), so the iPad event was moved to the Fall in 2013.
I don't think that they need to dominate at all to be successful.
Stock is up 70% last 12 months
Stock is up 20% YTD
I predict we see $110 by EOY and $125 in the next 12 months.
I predict we see $190. in the next 12 months, I mean think about it -- all the so-called iPhone Killers are going down the toilet.
I predict we see $190. in the next 12 months, I mean think about it -- all the so-called iPhone Killers are going down the toilet.
That is not going to happen. Far too optimistic.
Of the total market. How much is their share of the high end market?
Of the total market. How much is their share of the high end market?
Are people really still talking about market share? For real?
I didn't bring it up.
I didn't bring it up.
That's not what I meant. I was just curious if people were still talking about such an inane subject.
(PS: I have a number of people on block, so there are a good number of messages that I don't see.)
That's not what I meant. I was just curious if people were still talking about such an inane subject.
(PS: I have a number of people on block, so there are a good number of messages that I don't see.)
They weren't talking about market share. They were talking about saturation. How much of the high end market does Apple have in high end phones. If the number is really high then one should be able to reasonably assume that sales will be slowing down at some point. I didn't say "ending"... just slowing down. Which is what we are seeing. Apple still sells more phones yoy but the percentage over the year before is no longer what it used to be. The chance for wildly exceptional growth numbers as we've seen in the past is no longer there.
That's what is being said... not market share. Rather, Apple's share of its market.
They weren't talking about market share. They were talking about saturation. How much of the high end market does Apple have in high end phones. If the number is really high then one should be able to reasonably assume that sales will be slowing down at some point. I didn't say "ending"... just slowing down. Which is what we are seeing. Apple still sells more phones yoy but the percentage over the year before is no longer what it used to be. The chance for wildly exceptional growth numbers as we've seen in the past is no longer there.
That's what is being said... not market share. Rather, Apple's share of its market.
We'll see when the "6" is released (really hoping they just call it "iPhone" personally.
We'll see when the "6" is released (really hoping they just call it "iPhone" personally.
I get that... but let's say that Apple has 20% yoy in the fiscal 1st quarter... 64 million phones. Then what?
Not that Apple would be doing badly. Hardly.
Rather... no matter what, you are probably not going to see the wild growth that you saw between 2007 and 2012... unless Apple can come up with another product category that is successful as the iPhone.
Stability is the goal... imho.
Rather... no matter what, you are probably not going to see the wild growth that you saw between 2007 and 2012... unless Apple can come up with another product category that is successful as the iPhone.
They don't necessarily have to come up with another category as successful as the iPhone... They could very well introduce (have) several products, that are moderately successful.
They have the iPod*, which has languished the past couple of years. They could simplify and diversify that line from a simple media player, health/fitness tracking devices, mobile gaming/entertainment devices. (*I know everyone poo-poos the iPod because sales are down and they haven't updated them in two years. But what other Apple product went through the same thing? Hmmm... The Mac-freaken-Pro. Everyone thought for sure that was EOL'd and look what they released? A beautiful cylinder of total awesomeness that completely caught everyone off guard. I'm thinking Apple is doing the same to the iPod. Why waste money in incremental updates when you're busy trying to redefine what an iPod is?)
The AppleTV is another product that's ripe to explode and I bet it's going to once Apple gets all the pieces together.
The iPad still has a tremendous opportunity to grow, especially with the recent IBM deal.
And the Mac can also continue to grow, especially if Apple is able to continue to push the prices down without sacrificing anything else. Maybe Apple has an iOS based laptop and AIO desktop** in the works that allows you to use a keyboard and mouse/trackpad? These would be much cheaper than a Mac and have access to the hundreds of thousands of apps, not least of which all the enterprise apps being worked on with IBM. Imagine IBM selling millions of these things to corporations? Bye bye Windows! (**Before anyone goes apesh!t, please note, I am in no way saying Apple will EVER get rid of the Mac. I'd be the first to revolt.)
Yes I know the "I" is next to the "U"