Piper Jaffray advises 'conservative expectations' for Apple Watch, predicts first-year sales of 10M

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 75
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    Dude. 

     

    The iPhone sold less than 4 million its first year

    The iPod sold less than 4 million its first year

    The iPad only sold 14 million its first year

     

    STFU with your anti AppleWatch hate.  If you don't like the product, fine.  Just keep your drivel to yourself.

     

    Again are we on with our bet?

     

    If Apple sells 15 million Watches it its first year of release you ban yourself for 1 month.

    If not I ban myself.

    Or are you just all talk?  Paper tiger? 


     

    Damn, Ben, should have taken the bet at 40 million. Your odds are going down.

  • Reply 22 of 75
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MJ Web View Post



    I have a hunch a large percentage of iPhone Plus users will tire of its unwieldy form factor and welcome the Watch as an interface which reduces the need to access the phone. I believe this was Apple's primary rationale to create a Watch.



    This is potentially the dumbest thing I have read all day. 

  • Reply 23 of 75
    waltgwaltg Posts: 90member
    Let me think here a sec..... Wasn't Piper Jaffray the one or one of the crystal ball readers of 8-9 months ago that was saying Apple was washed out and the was on the skids???....... I wonder if they are in the weather forecasting business too??...... Don't think I'd want them managing my holdings....
  • Reply 24 of 75
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member
    Originally Posted by ttile08 View Post

    This is potentially the dumbest thing I have read all day. 



    What’s wrong with it? It’s right on the money. I mean RIGHT on the money. The 6 Plus is nigh unusable as a phone would be used and for many tasks that all other phones are capable of doing. The Apple Watch somewhat alleviates this.

     

    From a usability standpoint, they’re a great pair. Problem is, how many people will subscribe to that use case?

  • Reply 25 of 75
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

     



    What’s wrong with it? It’s right on the money. I mean RIGHT on the money. The 6 Plus is nigh unusable as a phone would be used and for many tasks that all other phones are capable of doing. The Apple Watch somewhat alleviates this.

     

    From a usability standpoint, they’re a great pair. Problem is, how many people will subscribe to that use case?




    He/she said that Apple's primary reason for creating a watch was because people wouldn't want to take their large 6+'s out of their pockets. That's a ludicrous thought. First of all Apple will likely only sell 15% of these larger model iPhones, with the rest being made up of the 6's. Apple wouldn't make a product to satisfy a small percentage of their overall consumer base. Second the Watch allows individuals to accomplish an unique set of tasks extremely efficiently (i.e. being able to check a message by lifting your wrist versus pulling your phone out of your pocket). It is this latter reason that Apple created this watch. 

  • Reply 26 of 75
    sockrolidsockrolid Posts: 2,789member

    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

    Munster expects that Apple will have a significant presence in the market, especially among watches priced between $300 and $1,000.

     

    That would be for the Apple Watch Sport and Apple Watch model lines.

    There is no way the Apple Watch Edition will be less than $1000.

    I'd expect it to start at about $2000.  Because raw gold is about $1200 an ounce.

    And yes, I'd expect Apple to have a trade-in program so users can upgrade every year or two

    (at a reduced cost.)

  • Reply 27 of 75
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member
    Originally Posted by ttile08 View Post

    Apple wouldnt make a product to satisfy a small percentage

     

    Right.

     

    …of their overall consumer base.


     

    Wrong. They make plenty of products for “small” groups of their existing customers.

     

    Also, the ability to use Apple Pay with an OLDER iPhone via the Apple Watch makes its purchase base larger.

  • Reply 28 of 75
    thrangthrang Posts: 1,012member

    As I posted in a pervious thread here several days ago, my prediction was 18-24M based a gross assumption of 350M eligible (compatible) devices worldwide, with a 5-7% buy in rate. Biggest surge in the end of calendar year of course, as it will be a juicy gift for the Apple-lover...

  • Reply 29 of 75
    thrangthrang Posts: 1,012member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jsmythe00 View Post





    At 350 min, not likely. They priced it out of alot of people's pocket range. Mines for sure. 350 for an accessory item?!? I was willing to do 200, maybe even 250. I'll go with the pebble instead.



    Apple probably has a pretty good idea as to the price points required for adoption based the number of devices we invest in and hold at any given time, upgrade cycles (willingness to commit new dollars to Apple). They can further broadly extrapolate individual or family income based on what we buy, and where prices need to be for absorption. Market timing is also important, which is why it would have made no sense to time the Apple Watch and new iPhone together.

  • Reply 30 of 75
    netroxnetrox Posts: 1,446member
    10,000,000 watches?!?! LOL, not gonna happen. More like 1,000,000.

    I know I don't want one myself.
  • Reply 31 of 75
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by netrox View Post



    10,000,000 watches?!?! LOL, not gonna happen. More like 1,000,000.



    I know I don't want one myself.



    Market research Sample size: 1.

     

    And you think Piper Jaffrey is skewed....

  • Reply 32 of 75
    thrangthrang Posts: 1,012member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    Most people have 2 hands.

     

    6 Plus is more usable than the 6 if you have two hands to spare.

     

    In what situation would you only have 1 hand?

     

    1. driving

    2. eating

    3. jacking

     

    I don't understand whats the big deal about 1 handed use




    Imagine the challenges when you're doing all three at the same time...

  • Reply 33 of 75
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by thrang View Post

     

    As I posted in a pervious thread here several days ago, my prediction was 18-24M based a gross assumption of 350M eligible (compatible) devices worldwide, with a 5-7% buy in rate. Biggest surge in the end of calendar year of course, as it will be a juicy gift for the Apple-lover...




    is a pervious thread a perverted thread in the past? jk

     

    I think 4 things will happen

     

    1) The techno elite that are iPhone users (2% of current iPhone users: 7M) will buy a sport watch

    2) The rich and bling conscious (1% of current iPhone users 3.5M) will buy an Edition Watch.

     

    that's 10M watches right there.

     

    If it's a winning combination then

     

    3) The rich and bling conscious that don't own an iPhone will buy both:  Another 2M worldwide plus a 'Apple Watch Halo effect' (heck for $3000 more, just toss in one of those 27" 4K iMacs, and put a bow on it for the butler, as he'll need to monitor my health stats)

     

    4) When V2 is released:

    20 Million people will be estimated to buy a watch.  because:

    4a) Apple will release a $299 sport watch, smaller, lighter, longer battery life, more telemetry, and greater overall functionality

    ?4b) the Edition watch will become  sleeker, a slightly lower price point [less metal], and even more fashionable options.

    4c) Apple will upgrade the current watch in place (fw or better: 'crack it at the genius bar for better innards, including a new better battery) for 10% of the price OR, offer a up to 90% trade in value for the precious metal watches, based on wear.

  • Reply 34 of 75
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

    two hands to spare.


     

  • Reply 35 of 75
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by thrang View Post

     



    Imagine the challenges when you're doing all three at the same time...




    something like this: 

    http://www.news4jax.com/news/school-bus-involved-in-crash-with-big-rig/28318538

  • Reply 36 of 75
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 3,089member

    I found this article interesting and informative:

     

    http://www.ablogtowatch.com/apple-watch-hands-on-review/

     

    It is from a non-tech, non-Apple perspective.

     

    All I can say about the "prediction" is that I know it is accurate +/- 9,999,998, as I will be buying two.

     

    The killer app for it is a 911 button. Sure, no wifi/GPS/cell in it for now, but I think that is mostly for battery issues. A chipset to do all those things is essentially trivial. And I can see a deal with all the major cell carriers (in the US anyway) to allow a free 911 connectivity with no cell plan (or a link to your existing one if you have it, at no charge.)

     

    I think the thing is damn cool, and it has value to me. YMMV.

  • Reply 37 of 75

    All I know is that there are a lot of iPod, iPhone, iPad users that I know that are absolutely not interested in the Apple Watch.

     

    What that says to me is one of two things:

     

    1. The user group is smaller than any or all of the above.

     

    2. The user group is different than any of Apple's other products.

     

    Maybe it'll grow on some of these people. Not sure.

  • Reply 38 of 75
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,056member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

     

    Quick, sog35, make a bet with them!!

     

    Piper Jaffray must shut down for a month if they are wrong!!


    He's still on honeymoon with his 5.5" iPhone. He'll be back soon.

  • Reply 39 of 75
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 3,089member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

     

    All I know is that there are a lot of iPod, iPhone, iPad users that I know that are absolutely not interested in the Apple Watch.

     

    What that says to me is one of two things:

     

    1. The user group is smaller than any or all of the above.

     

    2. The user group is different than any of Apple's other products.

     

    Maybe it'll grow on some of these people. Not sure.


    Grow is the word, I think. When I first saw mention of iPod, I shrugged with a big meh. I think I've bought a dozen of them in various configurations, and who knows how much I've spent on iTunes. It grew on me.

     

    I had a lukewarm reaction to iPhone. Decided it was too expensive for me. I bit at the iPhone 3g. It grew on me.

     

    I bought a launch day iPad. Showed up at my door at 10am on launch day. I've bought 2 more, plan an upgrade soon.

     

    But then, I also bought a MP110 Newton. Oh well.

     

    I have no plans to buy a MacPro. Some time ago I decided I couldn't afford a thunderbolt display. Now I'm thinking a TB display an macmini is a better choice than iMac (and I've had at least a dozen iMacs over the years.)

     

    Grow it will. Chapeau to AAPL, Cook, Ive and company. 

  • Reply 40 of 75
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,056member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pazuzu View Post





    I know a lot of Apple product owners who think it a very niche product with absolutely no interest in it.

    In addition my 6th gen iPod Nano with a wrist band looks about the same as this - and that's over 3 years old.

    6th iPod Nano has 5% functions vs this AppleWatch. On top of that, the strap/band was not included.

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