Piper Jaffray advises 'conservative expectations' for Apple Watch, predicts first-year sales of 10M

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 75
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post

     

    I think Apple would consider 10 million in the first year a failure. I would, too. 

     

    I think they would be aiming for at least 15 million, if not 20 million. The iPad sold over 15 million in its first year.


     

    Dude. 

     

    The iPhone sold less than 4 million its first year

    The iPod sold less than 4 million its first year

    The iPad only sold 14 million its first year

     

    STFU with your anti AppleWatch hate.  If you don't like the product, fine.  Just keep your drivel to yourself.

     

    Again are we on with our bet?

     

    If Apple sells 15 million Watches it its first year of release you ban yourself for 1 month.

    If not I ban myself.

    Or are you just all talk?  Paper tiger? 


     

     

    Wait a sec.

     

    A few days ago, you bet that Apple would sell at least 40 million ?Watches! 

     

    If you've revised that down to at least 15 million, then you appear to be becoming more and more pessimistic on it as the days go by. I can understand why, for sure; I just hadn't realised the power of my influence over you.

     

    Of course, I want Apple to make lots of money, as I'm a long-term shareholder, regardless of my negative opinion of the ?Watch. If my fears prove ill-founded, then you have my permission to gloat at my misjudgment for a reasonable length of time.

  • Reply 42 of 75
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

     
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by netrox View Post



    10,000,000 watches?!?! LOL, not gonna happen. More like 1,000,000.



    I know I don't want one myself.



    Market research Sample size: 1.

     

    And you think Piper Jaffrey is skewed....


     

     

    He's 100% correct with his market research to date.

  • Reply 43 of 75
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 3,089member

    This post is interesting and informative too:

     

    https://www.storehouse.co/stories/t56l6-apple-watch-sneak-peek

     

    Lots of nice pics (from an iPhone 6.)

  • Reply 44 of 75
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by eightzero View Post

     

    Grow is the word, I think. When I first saw mention of iPod, I shrugged with a big meh. I think I've bought a dozen of them in various configurations, and who knows how much I've spent on iTunes. It grew on me.

     

    I had a lukewarm reaction to iPhone. Decided it was too expensive for me. I bit at the iPhone 3g. It grew on me.

     

    I bought a launch day iPad. Showed up at my door at 10am on launch day. I've bought 2 more, plan an upgrade soon.

     

    But then, I also bought a MP110 Newton. Oh well.

     

    I have no plans to buy a MacPro. Some time ago I decided I couldn't afford a thunderbolt display. Now I'm thinking a TB display an macmini is a better choice than iMac (and I've had at least a dozen iMacs over the years.)

     

    Grow it will. Chapeau to AAPL, Cook, Ive and company. 


     

    I guess I wasn't too clear on what I was saying. (which wouldn't surprise anyone I'm sure)

     

    I know a lot of people who thought nothing of buying either an iPod, iPhone or iPad... and most have at least 2 of the three... usually an iPad and an iPhone. They had no problem seeing how each of these items fit into their lifestyle. Talking to these same people I have only had one of them tell me that the Apple Watch is on their buy list.

     

    Going from that small sample I have to say that I think that the majority of people, who see how an iPhone or iPad fits into their lifestyle, will not see how the Apple Watch fits into their lifestyle. I put the percentage of the user base at 2-3%... not 6-10%.

     

    Maybe it will grow on them.

     

    We'll see.

  • Reply 45 of 75
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,773member
    pmz wrote: »
    The day it goes on sale, the number of potential qualified buyers (iPhone 5, 5c, 5s, 6, 6 Plus owners) will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 350,000,000 people.

    They'll sell 10 million the first weekend.

    I tend to agree.
  • Reply 46 of 75
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,056member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mr O View Post

     

    PJ is going to look ridiculous if Apple manages to turn the ? watch into a Life saving device.

     

    The craftsmanship is there already. It is up to the developers now.


    And that'll be exactly what Apple will include in the device: when heart rate goes over certain bpm, the device will send message or call the emergency numbers on file or even dial 911. Remember Life Alert device in the commercial that old people wearing it on their neck? AppleWatch will do the same thing without pressing any button, but just: "Hey Siri, call 911"

  • Reply 47 of 75
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,056member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by stevenoz View Post

     

    I think that everyone who popped for a new iPhone 6 or 6+ will buy one because they work together. Plus the Apple cool factor.

     

    Put that in your Piper Jaffray and smoke it.


    I know many scientists in my company are interested to buy one since they work in the chemistry labs most of their time and don't want to touch the phone. Currently, in order to check a message or phone call, they need to remove safety gloves, wash their hands and take out the phone. With the AppleWatch, they can just look at it and decide if response is needed without removing gloves and washing their hands.

  • Reply 48 of 75
    thrangthrang Posts: 1,012member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jsmythe00 View Post





    Maybe but at 170 that is an expensive watch so you're paying alot. I've read little about pebble being a garbage device. No frills doesn't mean it's junk

    I'm sure you're right but I'm also sure that they just priced alot of people out.



    One big concern too is theft. Someone is not going to Jack me for my pebble. 350 watch...minimum? Yeah I'm taken.



    Generally, I don't think people interested the Watch are considering the Pebble. Two different atmospheres...

     

    Not being crass, $500 is not a lot of money for a lot of Apple customers. Most Apple purchases comes at a premium for the design, usability, and ecosystem...and people line up to pay. People will pay for value.

  • Reply 49 of 75
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,056member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jsmythe00 View Post





    Maybe but at 170 that is an expensive watch so you're paying alot. I've read little about pebble being a garbage device. No frills doesn't mean it's junk

    I'm sure you're right but I'm also sure that they just priced alot of people out.



    One big concern too is theft. Someone is not going to Jack me for my pebble. 350 watch...minimum? Yeah I'm taken.

    Right now, you don't have any concern for being jacked for $500+ phone which everyone should have one, why care about the $350 watch?

  • Reply 50 of 75
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,056member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post

     

     

     

    He's 100% correct with his market research to date.


     

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jsmythe00 View Post





    At 350 min, not likely. They priced it out of alot of people's pocket range. Mines for sure. 350 for an accessory item?!? I was willing to do 200, maybe even 250. I'll go with the pebble instead.

    Pebble is ugly just like Moto G/E. Would you rather go for these cheapos or more expensive iPhone? I guess you went with the latter...Same thought there.

  • Reply 51 of 75
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,056member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by thrang View Post

     



    Generally, I don't think people interested the Watch are considering the Pebble. Two different atmospheres...

     

    Not being crass, $500 is not a lot of money for a lot of Apple customers. Most Apple purchases comes at a premium for the design, usability, and ecosystem...and people line up to pay. People will pay for value.


    To be honest, $350 is in the range of current chronograph watch like Citizen EcoDrive or Seiko Kinetics and I would say, AppleWatch kicks ass these. But I prefer AppleWatch if it starts under $300.

  • Reply 52 of 75
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 13,002member
    [GIF]

    Did you get that GIF keyboard? ;)
  • Reply 54 of 75
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,056member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by netrox View Post



    10,000,000 watches?!?! LOL, not gonna happen. More like 1,000,000.



    I know I don't want one myself.

    1,000,000 in the first weekend...yup, possible. You're wrong when you talk about Apple product and its marketing ability. Why does it show AppleWatch in Paris trending fashion store? Simple, to get the rich to wear it as a fashion piece. Once the rich wears it, everyone wants to follow. Same thing happened to Louis Vuitton handbags before  which they started out with utility items (trunks, luguages...) until it's expanded to Asia and the rich wore it.

  • Reply 55 of 75
    chasmchasm Posts: 3,364member
    boeyc15: I'm not sure why you think the Apple Watch will be obsolete in a couple of years. The software is entirely upgradeable, the firmware is changeable, and the watch looks pretty solidly built. I can't see any reason why it wouldn't continue to work well for at least five years or more. The watch industry is *very* centered around slow replacement cycles, and I'm sure Apple is very aware of that. Yes, a future version will be better, but I can't see any short-term obstacles to the first-gen not continuing to learn new tricks or be further optimized as time goes by (ha! time!).

    Munster's own survey suggested that a third of iPhone 6 buyers thought they might buy it. I'm sure not all of them were serious, or were predicating their decision on other factors, but a third of 120 million (the number of iPhone 6 units I expect will be sold in fiscal 2015) is 40 million, and let's say that only a quarter of those people -- 10 million -- are seriously planning to buy it. There's Munster's predictions right there, and this isn't even counting iPhone 5s/5c buyers.

    So while it's fine to be a "negative nelly" -- at least you provided your thinking, and hoped you were wrong -- I can't see this thing doing as poorly as you suggest. Maybe it won't hit Munster's numbers (or maybe it will rocket past them -- there's evidence Apple has been tinkering with the design we saw previously ...), but I think it will do better than two million.
  • Reply 56 of 75
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    sog35 wrote: »
    Most people have 2 hands.

    6 Plus is more usable than the 6 if you have two hands to spare.

    In what situation would you only have 1 hand?

    1. driving
    2. eating
    3. jacking

    I don't understand whats the big deal about 1 handed use

    So your theory is because you have two hands both should be using a device at the same time. Two handed pencils and pens. Two handed mice. Two handed rock hammers.

    In absolutely no scenerio you can't see how one can could be doing something else (or be free to do something else) as you use one hand to access information on your handset?
  • Reply 57 of 75
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,521member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

     



    What’s wrong with it? It’s right on the money. I mean RIGHT on the money. The 6 Plus is nigh unusable as a phone would be used and for many tasks that all other phones are capable of doing. The Apple Watch somewhat alleviates this.

     

    From a usability standpoint, they’re a great pair. Problem is, how many people will subscribe to that use case?


     

    Well Apple started working on the watch three years ago.  I'd be willing to bet that they were still dead-set against a phablet at that point.

     

    Pretty much torpedoes the proposed "primary reason".

     

    Thompson

  • Reply 58 of 75
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,521member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    Most people have 2 hands.

     

    6 Plus is more usable than the 6 if you have two hands to spare.

     

    In what situation would you only have 1 hand?

     

    1. driving

    2. eating

    3. jacking

     

    I don't understand whats the big deal about 1 handed use


     

    I carry a briefcase or gym bag from car to/from work/gym quite often, and meanwhile, in my right hand, I use my iPhone.  Wouldn't want to try that with a 6 plus.  I could think for a bit and come up with many more scenarios, but I don't want to sit here and try to convince you

     

    Thompson

  • Reply 59 of 75
    sennensennen Posts: 1,472member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

     



    The 6 Plus is nigh unusable as a phone would be used and for many tasks that all other phones are capable of doing. 

     


     

    I better tell my boss that his new phone is 'nigh unusable' as a phone. Once he's finished with the call he's on right now, that is. Oh wait, now he's replying to a text message. Ah, now checking email. I simply don't know how he's able to do that on a 'nigh unusable' phone!! Let alone the (average sized Japanese) guy I saw on a jam-packed train in Yokohama last week using LINE one-handed on a 6 Plus.

  • Reply 60 of 75

    My single biggest issue is I really, really don't want my medical info on my phone, on my watch, or it tracking those. I honestly could give less then a crap how many stairs I climb or how far I've walked. 

     

    All I want is something simple, that looks really nice, that lets me do the things I pull my phone out for - checking time, checking messages, seeing notifications. It would be nice if it were affordable but if it's nice I'll pay up.

     

    I don't see that with Apple Watch. It's a neat toy but I think a conservative estimate is probably safer. I myself will be getting a Pebble. 

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