Piper Jaffray advises 'conservative expectations' for Apple Watch, predicts first-year sales of 10M

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Comments

  • Reply 61 of 75
    heliahelia Posts: 170member

    Smartwatch market is quite a niche one now, it's a miracle if Apple manages to sell anything remotely near 10 million

  • Reply 62 of 75
    Originally Posted by sennen View Post

    I better tell my boss that his new phone is 'nigh unusable' as a phone.



    Enjoy your delusion that the 6 Plus is usable as any previous phone has been.

  • Reply 63 of 75
    sennensennen Posts: 1,472member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

     



    Enjoy your delusion that the 6 Plus is usable as any previous phone has been.


     

    It's sad that you can't see past your own preferences to understand that other people may be able to actually fully use the iPhone 6 Plus. I personally will probably go for the 4.7" phone next year (though I'm still tempted for the 6 Plus), but that doesn't mean I can't get why people might a) like and b) get excellent functionality out of the 5.5" model.

  • Reply 64 of 75
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member
    Originally Posted by sennen View Post

    Its sad that you cant see past your own preferences...

     

    “The size of a human hand” is my preference now?

  • Reply 65 of 75
    markbyrnmarkbyrn Posts: 662member
    You can listen to Gene Munster or flip a coin; the coin will probably be more accurate.
  • Reply 66 of 75
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 3,094member

    While this is a bit of a threadjack, I am particularly interested to see how the tech evolves vis a vis other Apple strategy. I'm not dev or tech guy, but while Apple Watch is billed as a iPhone accessory, that isn't the whole story. 

     

    I understand Apple Watch to be a BT4 connective device. While the most obvious connection is iPhone, I think there are other possibilities, particularly in light of the "connectivity" efforts i iOS and OSX. Apple Watch needs help - its size limits the battery capacity, needed almost wholly to run the screen. But imagine it being able to pair with an authorized BT in range. Say part of a new Apple airport in your home or office? Now it can reach out to your iPhone on that network...or anywhere it can find it. Or even image a 3rd party BT/Cell/ wifi bridge that is small enough to put in a car or even carry instead of the iPhone. A pen? Jeebz...maybe even some sport sunglasses with a HUD. It can get beyond Dick Tracy pretty quickly.

     

    Lotta possibilities. It's all about connectivity, and will be fun to watch (!).

  • Reply 67 of 75
    markbyrn wrote: »
    You can listen to Gene Munster or flip a coin; the coin will probably be more accurate.

    Plus, the coin is actually worth something.
  • Reply 68 of 75
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by helia View Post

     

    Smartwatch market is quite a niche one now, it's a miracle if Apple manages to sell anything remotely near 10 million


    The smart watch segment is certainly niche, but as you can see Apple is really going after this in the "watch" segment, and those who don't wear watches but might be intrigued by Apple offering, which is considerably larger.  One thing that I don't think anyone can argue about, is that Apple makes a much bigger "splash" with general awareness on product introductions, so many more people in the population at large will be aware of an Apple Watch, vs. a Galaxy Gear or Moto 360.

     

    Always hard to predict where it will go, but it would seem that the total addressable market (globally) is going to be 100's of millions (all iPhone 5,5c,5s,6/6+ owners) as measured by Q4 2015.  Only a small % of those are required to purchase, and majority of Apple customers are those willing to spend a little more on products (in most markets at least).  Given that global base, and expanding middle/upper class in emerging markets, there will be a few million that are avid Apple fans eager to give it a try just because it is Apple, it is new, and it might be the beginning of something interesting (see iPad launch).

     

    Of course, weighing against the above, its hard to know the number of persons that might be interested in getting one, but want to wait for "version 2".

     

    To get beyond that first set of "millions" will require it to be useful though (over the next 3 versions say)...and of course, as the product isn't yet shipping, the jury is still out.  My opinion is that Apple and the devs will make it useful and desirable though.

  • Reply 69 of 75
    nhtnht Posts: 4,522member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post

     

    Of course, I want Apple to make lots of money, as I'm a long-term shareholder, regardless of my negative opinion of the ?Watch. If my fears prove ill-founded, then you have my permission to gloat at my misjudgment for a reasonable length of time.


     

    You're a concern troll carping about everything from how the watch is bad, the phone is bad, Cook is bad, etc.

     

    10M is actually a good estimate for 12 months of sales.  Somewhere between 10-15M is probably the goal given 1% of the watch market is 12M watches.  Apple will have paid for the expensive market analysis of breakdown but the $300-$400 electronic and quartz watch market is going to get dominated by the Apple watch.  Few other watches will have the fit and finish of the Apple watch and none will match it's capabilities.

  • Reply 70 of 75
    nhtnht Posts: 4,522member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

     

    “The size of a human hand” is my preference now?


     

    Most humans have two.

  • Reply 71 of 75
    nhtnht Posts: 4,522member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post



    So your theory is because you have two hands both should be using a device at the same time. Two handed pencils and pens. Two handed mice. Two handed rock hammers.



    In absolutely no scenerio you can't see how one can could be doing something else (or be free to do something else) as you use one hand to access information on your handset?

     

    There are several use cases for 1 handed use.  

     

    A large set is quick access to info...see a text, check the time, check the calendar, pick a different song, etc.  These are still doable on the plus.  

     

    Another set is to do more complex tasks single handedly. These are not as doable on the plus.  Like one handed texting or email.  It is offset by more effective two handed use in those same activities.

     

    I'm guessing that a lot of that 1 handed complex activity is probably being done when multitasking is not optimal behavior but we all do it anyway.

  • Reply 72 of 75
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 3,094member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by brucemc View Post

     

    Given that global base, and expanding middle/upper class in emerging markets, there will be a few million that are avid Apple fans eager to give it a try just because it is Apple, it is new, and it might be the beginning of something interesting (see iPad launch).

     


    I freely admit to being one of these, but it isn't going to be a Gold Edition I try first. I do see immediate value to me.

     

    A smart person at AAPL might want to think about some form of Apple Store gift card for the holiday season. Put a picture of the Apple Watch on one of those nice iTunes plastic cards, load with $349+, and give it as a gift. And...a smart marketing person would have them available at the retailers (watch stores?) that are going to carry them, and when you buy the gift card, you get a pre-order slot at that store. The retailers will get a line on launch day.

     

    Its a way of getting an early read on the market too.

  • Reply 73 of 75
    sennensennen Posts: 1,472member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

     

     

    “The size of a human hand” is my preference now?


     

    I see the iPhone 6 Plus in use every day, the user having no problems whatsoever, even vastly preferring it over the 4" iPhone, and I also see someone using it one-handed unimpeded in a very difficult environment. I'll trust my eyes over your opinion, thanks.

  • Reply 74 of 75
    nhtnht Posts: 4,522member
    fallenjt wrote: »
    I know many scientists in my company are interested to buy one since they work in the chemistry labs most of their time and don't want to touch the phone. Currently, in order to check a message or phone call, they need to remove safety gloves, wash their hands and take out the phone. With the AppleWatch, they can just look at it and decide if response is needed without removing gloves and washing their hands.

    Or put their phone in a clear bag on a counter nearby.

    Personally, I'm not touching my watch if I'm messing with chemicals nor do I want to risk a splash.
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