Apple's forecast to sell 71.5M iPhones units in Q4, iPhone 6 sales more than double iPhone 6 Plus

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Comments

  • Reply 61 of 93
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

     

    Back to the article, I think he is being a bit pessimistic for calendar Q1 2015. I can see Apple selling more plusses than he thinks and its still a holiday season somewhere - like China. 


     

    Look at the 6 numbers for fiscal Q2... either he's really screwed the pooch on his Q1 numbers for the 6 or the Q2 numbers are much much too low.

     

    ... and the 5C is going to sell even more??!

     

    I really have no faith in these numbers whatsoever.

     

    imho

  • Reply 62 of 93
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

     



    Std pattern.   The first 6 months is a 'trickle' down of paired purchases [mommy gets a new phone gives old phone to Timmy, and buys 'the same' phone for Tina].   and personally, I think high out of warranty failures.   2.5 years is about the time an iPhone wears out... if you're staying in a form factor, that's when you're gonna buy a plug replacement.  the 5c and the 4s are the last of those form factors, and for the 4s, those are on that replacement track at the moment.

     

     

    After March, iPhones 'osborne'  esp. older phones, as you start to wonder if there is a feature or form factor to be release 'in just a couple more months' (6, but who's counting), that will have you wait until you decide [will the 6s+ drive the price of 6+s down so much it's a better deal?, or will the 6s have what I'm needing].


     

    I still got my 5.5 year old 3GS (just changed the battery for the first time), why on earth do you think a phone lasts 2.5 years. My sister, which work as a director for the government has a 4S  (more than 3 year old) and just changed the battery. BTW, I don't even use a case.... 

     

    From my own experience, phones last a lot longer than 2.5 years (people pass their phone down the line after 2-3 years and often they last 1-3 more year before being retired). Five year is much close to the average time a Iphone will stay in use if you include all users.

  • Reply 63 of 93
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by slickdealer View Post

     

     

     

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samsung_Galaxy#Release_history

     

    You are comparing this to releasing a couple phones per year, while keeping an older model for sale?  Please.  In 2013, Samsung released almost 30 Samsung Galaxy phones while keeping many older models on shelves.  




    Focus is about saying no.   They just went 'expanded' their phone line at double their past rate for 2 product cycles. (5c and 5s, 6 and 6+).   To me that's amazing.  (and they inkled they are cutting back on the iPad line).   And they just spun up a new wearable line.   We don't want to go back to 100 different apple products competing against each other.

     

    image

  • Reply 64 of 93
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member

    Focus is about saying no.   They just went 'expanded' their phone line at double their past rate for 2 product cycles. (5c and 5s, 6 and 6+).   To me that's amazing.  (and they inkled they are cutting back on the iPad line).   And they just spun up a new wearable line.   We don't want to go back to 100 different apple products competing against each other.

    <iframe width="640" height="385" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/H8eP99neOVs" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>

    Keep it simple stupid. Apple doesn't need to sell a 5c, 5s 6, 6 Plus and whatever new phone they announce next year. Make a bigger version of the 5c with 5s internals and keep around the 4.7" 6 as the mid-tier product.

    Or If Cook really believes Apple needs to make a bigger push in emerging markets be creative and come up with something new rather than just taking a 2 or 3 year old phone and reselling it at a discounted price. Look what they did with iPod with the shuffle and nano. Why couldn't they do something similar with iPhone?
  • Reply 65 of 93
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    boredumb wrote: »
    Just wanted to thank the majority of this thread for helping me to understand how lemmings "think"...
    I vaguely recall a scene like it in Alice in Wonderland, where folks charge off manically in one direction,
    then just as fanatically charge off in the opposite direction at the smallest cue.
    Once we were all agog at how smaller was so much more elegant...but now?  Perhaps "this too shall pass".

    When Apple steadfastly refused to make a larger phone, we were all 110% behind that logic,
    but with the slightest hint that these new sizes were in the offing, and especially once they'd arrived,
    most of you are singing the new tune just as fanatically,
    and can't belittle the absurd notion of ever <span style="line-height:22.399999618530273px;">re-embracing </span>
    <span style="line-height:22.399999618530273px;">the old paradigm ferociously enough...</span>


    <span style="line-height:22.399999618530273px;">Well, folks, one of the things we all claim to adore about Apple is that they do the thing that's right,</span>

    <span style="line-height:22.399999618530273px;">not necessarily </span>
    <span style="line-height:22.399999618530273px;">what the largest number want.  We regularly revile competitors, like Samsung, for playing to the masses.</span>

    <span style="line-height:22.399999618530273px;">I'd simply like to suggest that there will always be a significant number of people who think "big" isn't always "better",</span>

    <span style="line-height:22.399999618530273px;">for every user, in the world of 'devices', and, well, it's never a good idea to close your mind, and ever say 'never'.</span>

    Listen, smart guy, there were plenty of us who listened to Tim Cook two or so years ago saying that they weren't ruling out larger screens, but they weren't going to bring one out until they could make one the Apple way. Some of us never said a word in defense of 4-inch supremacy. But we had to say a lot in defense of Tim Cook's doctrine of waiting for the technology.

    Turned out he was being absolutely truthful (but appropriately cagey), except we didn't get a larger iPhone, we got two larger iPhones.

    What were you saying when Tim Cook was being pilloried for "making excuses" for not bringing out larger iPhones "like, two years ago, dude"?
  • Reply 66 of 93
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by foggyhill View Post

     

     

    I still got my 5.5 year old 3GS (just changed the battery for the first time), why on earth do you think a phone lasts 2.5 years. My sister, which work as a director for the government has a 4S  (more than 3 year old) and just changed the battery. BTW, I don't even use a case.... 

     

    From my own experience, phones last a lot longer than 2.5 years (people pass their phone down the line after 2-3 years and often they last 1-3 more year before being retired). Five year is much close to the average time a Iphone will stay in use if you include all users.


     

    I agree. My Wife's 4S works absolutely fine after 3 years and holds a charge almost as well as the day she bought it.

  • Reply 67 of 93
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by boredumb View Post

     

    Just wanted to thank the majority of this thread for helping me to understand how lemmings "think"...

    I vaguely recall a scene like it in Alice in Wonderland, where folks charge off manically in one direction,

    then just as fanatically charge off in the opposite direction at the smallest cue.

    Once we were all agog at how smaller was so much more elegant...but now?  Perhaps "this too shall pass".

     

    When Apple steadfastly refused to make a larger phone, we were all 110% behind that logic,

    but with the slightest hint that these new sizes were in the offing, and especially once they'd arrived,

    most of you are singing the new tune just as fanatically,

    and can't belittle the absurd notion of ever re-embracing the old paradigm ferociously enough...

     

    Well, folks, one of the things we all claim to adore about Apple is that they do the thing that's right,

    not necessarily what the largest number want.  We regularly revile competitors, like Samsung, for playing to the masses.

    I'd simply like to suggest that there will always be a significant number of people who think "big" isn't always "better",

    for every user, in the world of 'devices', and, well, it's never a good idea to close your mind, and ever say 'never'.




    People wanted smaller in phones when all they did was use them to make calls. When's the last time you heard someone wishing they'd make nine inch television sets?

     

    As people started using them more and more for their primary computing device, they wanted a bigger screen. Apple made one design exception with the third and fourth gen iPads, making them thicker than the iPad 2, because they felt that a Retina display was important enough to do so. The iPhone didn't need to get thicker for the RD, so they waited on making them larger until the tech was ready.

  • Reply 68 of 93
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    flaneur wrote: »
    Listen, smart guy, there were plenty of us who listened to Tim Cook two or so years ago saying that they weren't ruling out larger screens, but they weren't going to bring one out until they could make one the Apple way. Some of us never said a word in defense of 4-inch supremacy. But we had to say a lot in defense of Tim Cook's doctrine of waiting for the technology.

    Turned out he was being absolutely truthful (but appropriately cagey), except we didn't get a larger iPhone, we got two larger iPhones.

    What were you saying when Tim Cook was being pilloried for "making excuses" for not bringing out larger iPhones "like, two years ago, dude"?

    What specific technology did Apple mention at the September event as the reason bigger screened phones didn't come before this year? Are other companies using inferior display technology? If they are I'm surprised reviews haven't called them out for having inferior screens compared to iPhone. Or is it that Apple couldn't get enough of what they needed until now?
  • Reply 69 of 93
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by foggyhill View Post

     

     

    I still got my 5.5 year old 3GS (just changed the battery for the first time), why on earth do you think a phone lasts 2.5 years. My sister, which work as a director for the government has a 4S  (more than 3 year old) and just changed the battery. BTW, I don't even use a case.... 

     

    From my own experience, phones last a lot longer than 2.5 years (people pass their phone down the line after 2-3 years and often they last 1-3 more year before being retired). Five year is much close to the average time a Iphone will stay in use if you include all users.


    two words - Bell Curve:  you are market research of 2, out of some 80 Million phones.  

     

    I would posit when you include all users, you include dunk tanks (urinals), dropped down the elevator shaft (I did that once with keys), let alone batteries, chipped screens, children stuffing peanut butter in the headphone jack, broken 30pin connectors, etc, etc etc.  And the batteries (for subscriber buyers [the vast majority of original 3GS and 4 owners]) is a trigger point to buy a new phone.

     

    I happened to spend a lot of time at one of the largest Apple stores for foot traffic (MOA-  I managed a fleet of iOS for a company, and had 8 iPhones/iPads in my extended family inventory), and I've pointedly asked the geniuses and they see that  'random' problems seem to start at about 20 months, not including an infant mortality peak at 2 months.  Yet they also tell me they see 3gs's and 4's come in the store all the time, and they are working fine... just 'comparing' to the latest model

     

    I'm also aware of the corporate and TLA organizations [I used to advise on those] hat buy 1,000-10,000 phones on a contract, and they 'commit' to 4 year deals.  And 2 I knew bought their shelf stock in March-June (partly because Apple wanted them to).

     

    Personally, My experience is a lot like yours. I have a 4s... I just put a case on it, because I shattered the back (dog caught the charger cable and pulled it onto the tile floor).  But, truth be told, this was a refurb.  after 9 months, my orig 4s started failing intermittently of water damage... from sweat (biking to work, phone in my shirt pocket.

  • Reply 70 of 93
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    What specific technology did Apple mention at the September event as the reason bigger screened phones didn't come before this year? Are other companies using inferior display technology? If they are I'm surprised reviews haven't called them out for having inferior screens compared to iPhone. Or is it that Apple couldn't get enough of what they needed until now?

    Me thinks the 6+ is definitely CPU/GPU restrained, and the a8 (and the 64 bit a7 before that) is the secret sauce.  Also remember that it's not specs, but integration into the target OS as well.   Touch Response (no 'Laggies' ) is critical.  I think it's less about the screens, and more about moving the larger number of pixels around as fast as your fingers can move.

  • Reply 71 of 93

    the only difference between the iphone 5s,6, 6+ is size.Most people prefer the iphone 5 5s design instead of the 6.4 inch phones are most likely going to be instinct.the right size for the iphone is 4.5 inch.Unless they make the 4.7 inch iphone 6 like the moto x 4.7 inch phone which is much smaller barely bigger than the 5s.

  • Reply 72 of 93
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    Keep it simple stupid. Apple doesn't need to sell a 5c, 5s 6, 6 Plus and whatever new phone they announce next year. Make a bigger version of the 5c with 5s internals and keep around the 4.7" 6 as the mid-tier product.



    Or If Cook really believes Apple needs to make a bigger push in emerging markets be creative and come up with something new rather than just taking a 2 or 3 year old phone and reselling it at a discounted price. Look what they did with iPod with the shuffle and nano. Why couldn't they do something similar with iPhone?

     

    last point: the 5c was that phone.  It's a killer seller in China.   So. Asked and Answered.

     

    first point: I'm guessing it would be 'cheaper' to push the 6 internals into a 6c, than the 5s internals into a 'larger' 5c.  Too much engineering for the long term ROI.

     

    The decision Apple has to make is do they make a 'new non Apple Pay' phone, and for how long?

    Apple Pay (TouchID and NFC) and the follow-on security/privacy are the key separation features.  I don't see Apple pushing out a 'new' phone without them.

  • Reply 73 of 93
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    Me thinks the 6+ is definitely CPU/GPU restrained, and the a8 (and the 64 bit a7 before that) is the secret sauce.  Also remember that it's not specs, but integration into the target OS as well.   Touch Response (no 'Laggies' ) is critical.  I think it's less about the screens, and more about moving the larger number of pixels around as fast as your fingers can move.

    Thank you for answering Rogifan in a more patient way than I would have done. Besides the processor and OS evolution you mention, there is also the critical shrinkage and smoothing of the package.

    The engineering effort to achieve the feel of the two 6 models in the hand are totally unappreciated, or under-reported. How much thickness was shaved from the main component board assembly and its packing with the battery and other elements, for example? The rounded edges on the glass —where's the awareness or even notice of that?

    Rogifan is representative of a kind of blindness and numbness to critical detail. Two years ago, the state of the art was the iPhone 5 package, hugely advanced, elegant and light as a feather for its time, and putting all others to shame.

    Putting a 4.7 screen with 5 internals into the same style of package then would have resulted in a monstrous clunker of a phone, relatively speaking.
  • Reply 74 of 93
    onhkaonhka Posts: 1,025member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post



    Looking forward to a 4" iPhone 6s.



    I would like the option of a 4 and/or 5 with the full functionality and features of the 6 Plus; including a possible larger battery, thus longer battery life.

     

    Certainly the existing dyes of the 4 & 5 are available. And I am confident, that Ive could update their innards with the current technology, and Cook could set a price that would entice a significant audience of prospective buyers––particularly of those of us that are keeping our iPhones in our pockets longer because of the iPad.

     

    Although I am enticed to upgrade my 5 to a 6, I am only holding back because of the imminent release of the ? Watch. At at which time if the 4 or 5 Plus were available, I would purchase the combination without hesitation.

     

    Imagine, a selection of iPhones/iPads/?Watches and MacBooks that could be bundled to virtually fit any hand and address mobile needs whether communicating voice/text/images, monitor efforts, making purchases securely, tracking adventures, educating ones self and satisfying ones livelihood, simply by glancing at your wrist and selecting a device that best suits everyones immediate requirements.

     

    Expand the iPhone SKU; I am more that halfway there.

  • Reply 75 of 93
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,054member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    I hope Apple engineers and designers are trying to find a way to reduce the overall footprint of iPhone. I'd love an iPhone the size of a Moto X. I'm not sure what they can do with home button and Touch ID as that's what's keeping the phone from being as small as some competitior phones.



    EDIT: And with these bigger iPhones I'm surprised Apple didn't play up the ?Watch convenience more. I don't think it's a coincidence we'e getting ?Watch soon after these larger phones were announced.

    Apple should reduce overall footprint? You mean top and bottom bezels because I don't think they can reduce the side bezels. I don't see the relevance even if the screen size is the same but top and bottom bezels are as thin as sides. Your reachability depends on width, not length since the screen size is fixed.

  • Reply 76 of 93
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,054member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

     

    Also how odd to predict the 5C and 4S will sell close to 10M between them in Jan-March and then be abandoned for the rest of the year. 


    because those potential 4S owners will be getting better iPhone with the same amount of money. It's called 5C. That means 5C won't be abandoned this year.

  • Reply 77 of 93
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,054member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by boeyc15 View Post





    I agree, but it looks like you and I are in the minority on this one, at least in this comment thread. ????

    On my list of things to do is drop Apple a note stating my opinion. Hope you do the same.

    total 2 want 4" iphone in here, not even minority, but outliners, lol.

  • Reply 78 of 93
    Quote:

     


     

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post





    You should get a flip phone. Even longer battery life and smaller



    I have seen people still using them 

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by foggyhill View Post

     

     

    I still got my 5.5 year old 3GS (just changed the battery for the first time), why on earth do you think a phone lasts 2.5 years. My sister, which work as a director for the government has a 4S  (more than 3 year old) and just changed the battery. BTW, I don't even use a case.... 

     

    From my own experience, phones last a lot longer than 2.5 years (people pass their phone down the line after 2-3 years and often they last 1-3 more year before being retired). Five year is much close to the average time a Iphone will stay in use if you include all users.


    Your right . You have to give it to Apple the build stuff that on the whole lasts for many years but iPhone 6 is not there best design with protruding camera and the bands on the back but the front is nice.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by foggyhill View Post

     

     

    I still got my 5.5 year old 3GS (just changed the battery for the first time), why on earth do you think a phone lasts 2.5 years. My sister, which work as a director for the government has a 4S  (more than 3 year old) and just changed the battery. BTW, I don't even use a case.... 

     

    From my own experience, phones last a lot longer than 2.5 years (people pass their phone down the line after 2-3 years and often they last 1-3 more year before being retired). Five year is much close to the average time a Iphone will stay in use if you include all users.


     

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by foggyhill View Post

     

     

    I still got my 5.5 year old 3GS (just changed the battery for the first time), why on earth do you think a phone lasts 2.5 years. My sister, which work as a director for the government has a 4S  (more than 3 year old) and just changed the battery. BTW, I don't even use a case.... 

     

    From my own experience, phones last a lot longer than 2.5 years (people pass their phone down the line after 2-3 years and often they last 1-3 more year before being retired). Five year is much close to the average time a Iphone will stay in use if you include all users.




    I agree. When Apple build something  on the whole it's built to last many years and you really get your money worth from it. It keeps on working but  iPhone 6 is the only iPhone where I was not impressed by the design when I first seen it .

  • Reply 79 of 93
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    fallenjt wrote: »
    because those potential 4S owners will be getting better iPhone with the same amount of money. It's called 5C. That means 5C won't be abandoned this year.

    That's not what the analyst said. It's what I think will happen though.
  • Reply 80 of 93
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

     

    I'm guessing it would be 'cheaper' to push the 6 internals into a 6c, than the 5s internals into a 'larger' 5c.  Too much engineering for the long term ROI.


    I've pointed this out before that it is highly unlikely Apple engineered the 5C without considering they would be able to easily update the internals with the 5S components. As it is, the 5C is going to get two less years in the marketplace than any other Apple design (which usually has a 4 year lifespan). The 5C debuted at mid-tier and now it's the bottom tier. If Apple follows their usual pattern, it'll be gone after only 2 years -- that's a lot of R&D down the drain, and minimizes any profit they hoped to gain by doing it in the first place. So I fully expect the 5S to show up in a plastic case next year as the "free" phone.

     

    Considering the 6 isn't adding that much to to the 5S except screen size, I would think it would not be too difficult to squeeze the internals into a redesigned 5S-sized case. In fact, again I would expect Apple engineered the 6 with that in mind, if for no other reason than the larger phone failed with their customers. So I fully expect to see a 6 mini next year occupying the $99 price point, with screen size making the distinction between price points. If the plastic phone drops off with the iPhone 7, then I can imagine the the 6 mini drops to the free phone and the iPhone 7 gets released in 3 sizes filling the mid, high, and plus price tiers.

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