I am a mechanical watch buyer. I dig my swatch. I'll be buying one of the Apple Watches.
TAG has no expertise in the semiconductor industry nor the manufacturing back end behind what makes Apples products so well made.
They are in for a world of hurt.
My Omega Seamaster has been in my drawer for 2 years. I believe the movement watch market is ending for mid-range watches. I said it before and I say it again now that Apple watch will disrupt this business for all the damn watches ranging from $300-$1500. That means Tissot, Hamilton, Bulova, Movado and up to TAG will be impacted. Omega and Rolex should be ok for now.
There is no smartwatch market to speak of at the moment. There is certainly a watch market, but I wouldn't say that it’s a growing or thriving market in the West.
Before the iPhone, there was a smartphone market, and a large mobile phone market.
Before the iPad, there was no tablet market to speak of.
The question is: can Apple create a market out of nothing, like the iPad? My guess is that there will be a very small market indeed for the Apple Watch akin to the Apple TV or smaller. The iPad, for many, replaced netbooks or PCs. For others, it replaced laptops. For still others, it replaced books, magazines, game consoles and newspapers. I don't see the Apple Watch replacing anything for most people, because they don't wear a watch in the first place, and it won't replace an iPhone or iPad.
The smart phone market was VERY SMALL before the Iphone. That's something most people don't seem to remember. The vast majority of phones were feature phones in the US.
The smart phone market was VERY SMALL before the Iphone. That's something most people don't seem to remember. The vast majority of phones were feature phones in the US.
Nokia sold 60 million smartphones in 2007. I wouldn't call that "very small".
Personally, I don't see how TAG can win this game. It's possible to acquire knowledge but it's unlikely that they'll be able to transition their culture from a mechanical hardware company to a semiconductor and software company.
You know who I'd like to see take a stab at the smart watch? Vertu. I think they've got exactly the right mix of skills to make a great luxury smart watch.
I think he was holding back a bit out of a sense of civil discourse. Benj Frost is clearly out to subvert objective discussion of the watch. He deserves worse than Slurpy gives him.
Slurpy is always positive. Frost is often negative and depressing. I look forward to his being proved a fool.
It is helpful to think of the iPhone as a pocket computer. It is helpful to think of the Apple Watch as wrist computer. Then it is easier to see it is really a brand new market that Apple is poised to dominate.
This insight is exactly correct, and even though it's plain and simple, it's far too panoramic for the nit-focused brain that sees "no market" for the watch. The computer has a built-in imperative to shrink and get closer to hand. There will always be a market for a more personal computer.
Nokia sold 60 million smartphones in 2007. I wouldn't call that "very small".
Personally, I don't see how TAG can win this game. It's possible to acquire knowledge but it's unlikely that they'll be able to transition their culture from a mechanical hardware company to a semiconductor and software company.
You know who I'd like to see take a stab at the smart watch? Vertu. I think they've got exactly the right mix of skills to make a great luxury smart watch.
I always wanted to buy a TAG Heuer and I probably will buy one someday. But it will be a mechanical watch. Those things are works of art that TAG has tremendous experience in.
I will definitely buy the Apple Watch because that is something Apple has a lot of expertise in.
What I won't be buying is a TAG Smartwatch. The only ecosystem I want is the Apple one.
The funny thing is TAG feels threatened enough by this to get on the ball. They're not making a wearable computer because they always aspired to sell wearable computers. They're terrified that an "iPhone event" is about to happen to otherwise stale watch business.
I always wanted to buy a TAG Heuer and I probably will buy one someday. But it will be a mechanical watch. Those things are works of art that TAG has tremendous experience in.
I will definitely buy the Apple Watch because that is something Apple has a lot of expertise in.
What I won't be buying is a TAG Smartwatch. The only ecosystem I want is the Apple one.
Used to, they started out as good watchmakers then went astray in the cheap Quartz carnage that almost destroyed the Swiss watch industry, the current company is reduced to a shadow of former greatness, trading mainly on the name.
See my earlier post about a modified Seiko movement, it is sort of like Apple rebranding a Dell.
If you want a luxury Swiss watch there are better brands.
The point of owning a luxury Swiss watch lies in the craftsmanship and complexity of a well engineered mechanical movement that with care will last for centuries.
Just another industry (luxury watches) Apple is poised to disrupt. Once these bozos saw what Apple intends to do they started crapping in their pants. People who called the Apple Watch ‘just’ another smartwatch had no clue what Apple was really up to. The Apple Watch will be sold in upscale, luxury item stores, not just the Apple Store and Best Buy. We’ll see the Apple Watch in the display cases right next to the Rolexes, the Tag Heurers and such. And yes, a substantial number of people will be willing to pay a thousand dollars for it. In the luxury market high end watches are still very popular.
Of course it has already been labeled an epic fail, just like the iMac, the iPod, the iPhone, and the iPad were. When will the jerktastic punditry crowd learn from their previous predictions? Fools all.
$1000?
The watch in my picture is $5500 retail.
That's just above entry level.
For another $5500 will they put hands and numbers on that watch???
For another $5500 will they put hands and numbers on that watch???
That's the exhibition back, it reminds me of the part in the Steve Jobs book where his father instilled in him that the interior of products require the same level of attention to detail as the exterior, even though the inside is rarely seen.
The smart phone market was VERY SMALL before the Iphone. That's something most people don't seem to remember. The vast majority of phones were feature phones in the US.
Nokia sold 60 million smartphones in 2007. I wouldn't call that "very small".
Yes Rich... Nokia sold 60 million smartphones in 2007... and the entire smartphone market was 122 million.
But guess what... the mobile phone market was 1.15 BILLION in 2007.
So I agree with foggyhill... the smartphone market was "very small" back then.
Smartphones were only about 10% of the phone market in 2007.
Your post shows precisely why the Watch will fail.
Everyone was clamouring for an Apple phone because it was such an obvious thing and everyone wanted one.
No-one is clamouring for an Apple watch because no-one wants one.
History will reduce the Apple Watch—if it ever reaches the shop floor—to a footnote in the annals of technology. It will be seen as the gimmick for the thumb twiddlers before the next big thing in years to come.
Very few of us then Apple users were "clamoring" for an Apple phone. Most of us had no idea what it would be, and the then current "smartphone" market was defined by such titans as Nokia, BlackBerry and Motorola so what the iPhone turned out to be wasn't "obvious". Certainly few could have predicted how disruptive the iPhone would be.
I don't wear a watch, mostly as I neither have a need for nor would I be able to use one in my daily life around machinery. Still, I would be inclined to have one again at some point in time where it would make sense for my other activities. Maybe the Apple watch will be a gimmick, but I suspect that it will end up being quite popular after a few iterations give it more standalone capabilities.
As for a popular fashion accessory, that's really the question isn't it, and I don't see traditional watchmakers having anymore insight into smart watches than Apple, or anyone else for that matter. I give Apple, or maybe more appropriately, Marc Newson, credit for understanding that a hybrid approach, mechanical watches with smart watch functions glued on won't be successful either.
Your post shows precisely why the Watch will fail.
Everyone was clamouring for an Apple phone because it was such an obvious thing and everyone wanted one.
No-one is clamouring for an Apple watch because no-one wants one.
History will reduce the Apple Watch—if it ever reaches the shop floor—to a footnote in the annals of technology. It will be seen as the gimmick for the thumb twiddlers before the next big thing in years to come.
By the sound of it, it looks like Apple envisions the watch as a satellite to their phone. Which is great. So, the ? watch would be a notification center and data tracker.
So yes, the current interface looks a bit naive - especially the silly Photos app - and the hardware interface could be simplified here and there, but this watch thing of Apple could actually prove to be a new Time Bomb. TAG Heuer is rightfully feeling nervous right now. I fear it might be a tad too late for them. I cannot see them replicate ? pay in just a few months ...
Comments
"But but but how is this ripping Apple off?"
There is no smartwatch market to speak of at the moment. There is certainly a watch market, but I wouldn't say that it’s a growing or thriving market in the West.
Before the iPhone, there was a smartphone market, and a large mobile phone market.
Before the iPad, there was no tablet market to speak of.
The question is: can Apple create a market out of nothing, like the iPad? My guess is that there will be a very small market indeed for the Apple Watch akin to the Apple TV or smaller. The iPad, for many, replaced netbooks or PCs. For others, it replaced laptops. For still others, it replaced books, magazines, game consoles and newspapers. I don't see the Apple Watch replacing anything for most people, because they don't wear a watch in the first place, and it won't replace an iPhone or iPad.
The smart phone market was VERY SMALL before the Iphone. That's something most people don't seem to remember. The vast majority of phones were feature phones in the US.
The smart phone market was VERY SMALL before the Iphone. That's something most people don't seem to remember. The vast majority of phones were feature phones in the US.
Nokia sold 60 million smartphones in 2007. I wouldn't call that "very small".
Personally, I don't see how TAG can win this game. It's possible to acquire knowledge but it's unlikely that they'll be able to transition their culture from a mechanical hardware company to a semiconductor and software company.
You know who I'd like to see take a stab at the smart watch? Vertu. I think they've got exactly the right mix of skills to make a great luxury smart watch.
I think he was holding back a bit out of a sense of civil discourse. Benj Frost is clearly out to subvert objective discussion of the watch. He deserves worse than Slurpy gives him.
Slurpy is always positive. Frost is often negative and depressing. I look forward to his being proved a fool.
This insight is exactly correct, and even though it's plain and simple, it's far too panoramic for the nit-focused brain that sees "no market" for the watch. The computer has a built-in imperative to shrink and get closer to hand. There will always be a market for a more personal computer.
Nokia sold 60 million smartphones in 2007. I wouldn't call that "very small".
Personally, I don't see how TAG can win this game. It's possible to acquire knowledge but it's unlikely that they'll be able to transition their culture from a mechanical hardware company to a semiconductor and software company.
You know who I'd like to see take a stab at the smart watch? Vertu. I think they've got exactly the right mix of skills to make a great luxury smart watch.
SMART PHONE. Learn to read.
I always wanted to buy a TAG Heuer and I probably will buy one someday. But it will be a mechanical watch. Those things are works of art that TAG has tremendous experience in.
I will definitely buy the Apple Watch because that is something Apple has a lot of expertise in.
What I won't be buying is a TAG Smartwatch. The only ecosystem I want is the Apple one.
The funny thing is TAG feels threatened enough by this to get on the ball. They're not making a wearable computer because they always aspired to sell wearable computers. They're terrified that an "iPhone event" is about to happen to otherwise stale watch business.
He says he is going to get an Apple watch. I think he is implying it is Tag that is going to hurt.
Used to, they started out as good watchmakers then went astray in the cheap Quartz carnage that almost destroyed the Swiss watch industry, the current company is reduced to a shadow of former greatness, trading mainly on the name.
See my earlier post about a modified Seiko movement, it is sort of like Apple rebranding a Dell.
****NSFW language warning****
For another $5500 will they put hands and numbers on that watch???
That's the exhibition back, it reminds me of the part in the Steve Jobs book where his father instilled in him that the interior of products require the same level of attention to detail as the exterior, even though the inside is rarely seen.
Yes Rich... Nokia sold 60 million smartphones in 2007... and the entire smartphone market was 122 million.
But guess what... the mobile phone market was 1.15 BILLION in 2007.
So I agree with foggyhill... the smartphone market was "very small" back then.
Smartphones were only about 10% of the phone market in 2007.
Your post shows precisely why the Watch will fail.
Everyone was clamouring for an Apple phone because it was such an obvious thing and everyone wanted one.
No-one is clamouring for an Apple watch because no-one wants one.
History will reduce the Apple Watch—if it ever reaches the shop floor—to a footnote in the annals of technology. It will be seen as the gimmick for the thumb twiddlers before the next big thing in years to come.
Very few of us then Apple users were "clamoring" for an Apple phone. Most of us had no idea what it would be, and the then current "smartphone" market was defined by such titans as Nokia, BlackBerry and Motorola so what the iPhone turned out to be wasn't "obvious". Certainly few could have predicted how disruptive the iPhone would be.
I don't wear a watch, mostly as I neither have a need for nor would I be able to use one in my daily life around machinery. Still, I would be inclined to have one again at some point in time where it would make sense for my other activities. Maybe the Apple watch will be a gimmick, but I suspect that it will end up being quite popular after a few iterations give it more standalone capabilities.
As for a popular fashion accessory, that's really the question isn't it, and I don't see traditional watchmakers having anymore insight into smart watches than Apple, or anyone else for that matter. I give Apple, or maybe more appropriately, Marc Newson, credit for understanding that a hybrid approach, mechanical watches with smart watch functions glued on won't be successful either.
Your post shows precisely why the Watch will fail.
Everyone was clamouring for an Apple phone because it was such an obvious thing and everyone wanted one.
No-one is clamouring for an Apple watch because no-one wants one.
History will reduce the Apple Watch—if it ever reaches the shop floor—to a footnote in the annals of technology. It will be seen as the gimmick for the thumb twiddlers before the next big thing in years to come.
Apple's recent watch SDK and User Experience guidelines stems me hopeful: Developers are encouraged to measure User tasks in seconds, not minutes.
By the sound of it, it looks like Apple envisions the watch as a satellite to their phone. Which is great. So, the ? watch would be a notification center and data tracker.
So yes, the current interface looks a bit naive - especially the silly Photos app - and the hardware interface could be simplified here and there, but this watch thing of Apple could actually prove to be a new Time Bomb. TAG Heuer is rightfully feeling nervous right now. I fear it might be a tad too late for them. I cannot see them replicate ? pay in just a few months ...
Read again. He's predicting that TAG won't.