I have always stated that over 15 million sales would be a success, albeit somewhat mundane. 20 million or more would be hitting it out of the campus. 10-15 million would be disappointing. Under 10 million a failure.
I don't believe that, but to hell with raking through your absurd post count to find contrary evidence. Whatever you've said in the past, it's still ridiculous; selling 10 million of anything is not a failure in any book, it's a knockout success that any company, including Apple, would be delighted with for a new product launch in its first year.
It's significantly cheaper than both the iPhone and iPad, so if it doesn't reach at least iPad numbers (whose ASP in it's first year was about $650), it will be a disappointment. 2 million would be laughable.
The ?TV is significantly cheaper than the iPhone and iPad but only sells about 8 million per year. The iPhone has a huge advantage in being subsidized so the latest model is just $200 up-front. Samsung bundled their watch with the phone purchase so that's a route Apple could go down and the Watch cost would get absorbed into the monthly contract price (e.g $15/month extra). If they partnered with the carriers to get the 3G chip in and shared the data contract, that would allow the watch to be much more functional as you'd get VOIP, notifications, some location tracking even if it's not full GPS, streaming music without requiring the phone. Just go out running with Beats and the Watch and you don't need the phone with you. If you get too tired, use the Watch to get an Uber taxi home and pay for it with the Watch or find nearby cafes/restaurants. Proper functional mobile internet was the huge thing that the iPhone brought to phones.
Another factor to weigh in with the Watch is upgrade cycle. The iPad had good first year sales but the upgrade cycle and lower use of subsidized pricing has kept it lower than the iPhone. The Apple Watch could sell well at first but have a very poor upgrade cycle.
Thing is, let's say they decided not to make a Watch at all, would that be better for them? It's not like they have an alternative product to focus their attention on.
True.
And although it sounds condescending, it gives something for Ive and Apple to do to keep them amused until the next big thing arrives. The last bomb was 2010; when will the next be? 2022 at the earliest is my guess; not much point in bringing out that holographic iPhone with ten minutes battery life, is there?
Otherwise, we can still look forward to iteration for the next few years; nothing wrong with that. I'd like to see a Retina A4 sized iPad, a Retina 17" MacBook and a Retina 30" iMac.
Research. Easy. Just look at the specs on the Apple site. Done. Runs only one day requiring recharging; my current Timex watch runs 12 months before I have to change the battery. I wear my Timex 24x7; Apple Watch has to be taken off to charge every day. I wear my Timex in the shower; iWatch not waterproof. I wear my Timex while swimming and is good down to 50m; iWatch not water proof -- maybe it can handle getting rained on. My Timex cost me $40 about 6 years ago, replacement bands have cost me $60 over the years, plus replacement batteries; iWatch starts at 4x the amount I've spent for 6 years.
I buy products for their functionality and usability first and durability a close second; attractiveness and style is important also. Apple wins hands down for their current hardware. iWatch specs currently published don't come close to the functionality that would attract me at any price. I this point, I wouldn't wear the iWatch if it was given to me for free.
Actual use is what determines charging. If you use it only as a watch, I'm betting the Apple watch could last a whole week. Cook said ONE DAY UNDER INTENSE USE. He didn't distinguish the small watch from the big one, so the large one probably last 1.5 days under intense use. Most people would not use the watch that intensively.
BTW, people here made the calculation that with the size of the battery, a 2 amp charger would charge the whole battery in 30 minutes... If the battery is not fully discharged, probably on average 20 minutes would be sufficient. BTW, if you use it all day long for notifications and responses and playing songs through you bluetooth headset, that's a hell of a lot of use, much more than your poor little watch.
The number of iPhones sold per year is what - 150M-200M? So the max market is 15M. Not that large
You do realize that the Iphone 5, 5c, 5s, 6, 6+ and 6s 6s+, will be compatible with the watch and have sold by the end of 2015.
They sold 125M (Fiscal 2013), 165M in Fiscal 2014, they'll sell 200M+ in Fiscal 2015 and 70M (at least) In Q1 Fiscal 2016 (late 2015). In Fiscal 2013 and 2014 a substantial number of those phones are 4S (especially in Fiscal 2013 were it was 27%) IF you count retirements (50% of people who upgrade don't sell or hand down their phones) and replacements of broken phones, you get about 450M active Iphones by the end of 2015.
The Max market is all those phones that will be in the hands of customers by 31 december 2015.
You do realize that the Iphone 5, 5c, 5s, 6, 6+ and 6s 6s+, will be compatible with the watch and have sold by the end of 2015.
They sold 125M (Fiscal 2013), 165M in Fiscal 2014, they'll sell 200M+ in Fiscal 2015 and 70M (at least) In Q1 Fiscal 2016 (late 2015). In Fiscal 2013 and 2014 a substantial number of those phones are 4S (especially in Fiscal 2013 were it was 27%) IF you count retirements (50% of people who upgrade don't sell or hand down their phones) and replacements of broken phones, you get about 450M active Iphones by the end of 2015.
The Max market is all those phones that will be in the hands of customers by 31 december 2015.
I was estimating sales per year based on 10% of iphone sales. I don't know why the install base would matter.
Because there's no rule that says you have to buy an ?Watch with a new iPhone? The installed base of iPhone users may also be interested in the ?Watch, since many of them are fully supported.
The last bomb was 2010; when will the next be? 2022 at the earliest is my guess; not much point in bringing out that holographic iPhone with ten minutes battery life, is there?
Otherwise, we can still look forward to iteration for the next few years; nothing wrong with that. I'd like to see a Retina A4 sized iPad, a Retina 17" MacBook and a Retina 30" iMac.
One thing the Watch would be good for is casual messaging but it doesn't look like Apple will deliver it - their drawing app is too limited. 3rd parties, even Microsoft, could put messaging on it:
It doesn't even need to be manual input like that. Imagine an input that only involves vertical swiping. This can be split into columns for punctuation, numbers, emoji and letters but it doesn't have to be if the speed is fast enough.
To begin typing, you just swipe vertically and your swipe from the top of the gesture input area to the bottom will cover a large portion of the column of characters but it will slow down as you get near the character you want. The next characters would be ordered based on auto-complete so you only have to swipe a little for the 2nd character, it would then be able to give you word suggestions. You would be able to enter a significant amount of words with just 3 vertical swipes but unlike keyboards like Minuum, it would let you enter deliberately misspelled words easily if you wanted.
That would be a cool thing for teens who want to always be messaging no matter what they're doing. They like to share pics too so that still needs the phone camera but conversations during dinner or classes would be trivial and wouldn't requires drawing out each letter, which makes it obvious what they're doing. Apple seems to be putting a focus on fitness and biometrics but I think the big thing is the casual communication.
The above text input I think should be system-wide so that it allows people to tweet and update Facebook messages and any app developer would just incorporate it. A 3G connection allows them to use Siri too.
With a round bezel, the text input method could be swiping round the outside, which would be a bit easier:
You would tap to enable the check box and then just run your finger round the outside, you'd get an idea roughly where the letters were after using it for a while so you could just jump to the rough area and let go to accept. Swipe left to delete, swipe right for space and there could be a pinch gesture to switch the outer wheel between letters, numbers, emoji and punctuation. Auto-complete would just be greyed out and swipe right to accept and insert space. Tap can be insert a period.
I'd like to see a Retina A4 sized iPad, a Retina 17" MacBook and a Retina 30" iMac.
I have no interest whatsoever in any of those products. They represent no value to me. Others are free to buy, of course. I wonder if Apple could sell 10-15M in their first year of any of them to be a success?
I have no interest whatsoever in any of those products. They represent no value to me. Others are free to buy, of course. I wonder if Apple could sell 10-15M in their first year of any of them to be a success?
1) The latter two, not even close.
2) He said that "10-15 million would be disappointing."
Actual use is what determines charging. If you use it only as a watch, I'm betting the Apple watch could last a whole week. Cook said ONE DAY UNDER INTENSE USE. He didn't distinguish the small watch from the big one, so the large one probably last 1.5 days under intense use. Most people would not use the watch that intensively.
BTW, people here made the calculation that with the size of the battery, a 2 amp charger would charge the whole battery in 30 minutes... If the battery is not fully discharged, probably on average 20 minutes would be sufficient. BTW, if you use it all day long for notifications and responses and playing songs through you bluetooth headset, that's a hell of a lot of use, much more than your poor little watch.
I'm really interested to see what the final product can do in this regard. A 0%->100% battery charge in <30m is an important spec. I would also expect lots of third party charging options: docks, cables and portable packs. You sort of solve a lot of issues with a little silver dollar sized battery pack you toss in your coat pocket, bag, or wherever. A bedsize dock will be popular, as will one that sits near the shower.
Comments
Your surety is misplaced.
I have always stated that over 15 million sales would be a success, albeit somewhat mundane. 20 million or more would be hitting it out of the campus. 10-15 million would be disappointing. Under 10 million a failure.
I don't believe that, but to hell with raking through your absurd post count to find contrary evidence. Whatever you've said in the past, it's still ridiculous; selling 10 million of anything is not a failure in any book, it's a knockout success that any company, including Apple, would be delighted with for a new product launch in its first year.
True.
And although it sounds condescending, it gives something for Ive and Apple to do to keep them amused until the next big thing arrives. The last bomb was 2010; when will the next be? 2022 at the earliest is my guess; not much point in bringing out that holographic iPhone with ten minutes battery life, is there?
Otherwise, we can still look forward to iteration for the next few years; nothing wrong with that. I'd like to see a Retina A4 sized iPad, a Retina 17" MacBook and a Retina 30" iMac.
Research. Easy. Just look at the specs on the Apple site. Done. Runs only one day requiring recharging; my current Timex watch runs 12 months before I have to change the battery. I wear my Timex 24x7; Apple Watch has to be taken off to charge every day. I wear my Timex in the shower; iWatch not waterproof. I wear my Timex while swimming and is good down to 50m; iWatch not water proof -- maybe it can handle getting rained on. My Timex cost me $40 about 6 years ago, replacement bands have cost me $60 over the years, plus replacement batteries; iWatch starts at 4x the amount I've spent for 6 years.
I buy products for their functionality and usability first and durability a close second; attractiveness and style is important also. Apple wins hands down for their current hardware. iWatch specs currently published don't come close to the functionality that would attract me at any price. I this point, I wouldn't wear the iWatch if it was given to me for free.
Actual use is what determines charging. If you use it only as a watch, I'm betting the Apple watch could last a whole week. Cook said ONE DAY UNDER INTENSE USE. He didn't distinguish the small watch from the big one, so the large one probably last 1.5 days under intense use. Most people would not use the watch that intensively.
BTW, people here made the calculation that with the size of the battery, a 2 amp charger would charge the whole battery in 30 minutes... If the battery is not fully discharged, probably on average 20 minutes would be sufficient. BTW, if you use it all day long for notifications and responses and playing songs through you bluetooth headset, that's a hell of a lot of use, much more than your poor little watch.
The number of iPhones sold per year is what - 150M-200M? So the max market is 15M. Not that large
You do realize that the Iphone 5, 5c, 5s, 6, 6+ and 6s 6s+, will be compatible with the watch and have sold by the end of 2015.
They sold 125M (Fiscal 2013), 165M in Fiscal 2014, they'll sell 200M+ in Fiscal 2015 and 70M (at least) In Q1 Fiscal 2016 (late 2015). In Fiscal 2013 and 2014 a substantial number of those phones are 4S (especially in Fiscal 2013 were it was 27%) IF you count retirements (50% of people who upgrade don't sell or hand down their phones) and replacements of broken phones, you get about 450M active Iphones by the end of 2015.
The Max market is all those phones that will be in the hands of customers by 31 december 2015.
I was estimating sales per year based on 10% of iphone sales. I don't know why the install base would matter.
Seems right. I was thrilled to leave my wrist watch behind once iphone came along.
One thing the Watch would be good for is casual messaging but it doesn't look like Apple will deliver it - their drawing app is too limited. 3rd parties, even Microsoft, could put messaging on it:
http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/redmond/projects/analogkeyboard/
It doesn't even need to be manual input like that. Imagine an input that only involves vertical swiping. This can be split into columns for punctuation, numbers, emoji and letters but it doesn't have to be if the speed is fast enough.
To begin typing, you just swipe vertically and your swipe from the top of the gesture input area to the bottom will cover a large portion of the column of characters but it will slow down as you get near the character you want. The next characters would be ordered based on auto-complete so you only have to swipe a little for the 2nd character, it would then be able to give you word suggestions. You would be able to enter a significant amount of words with just 3 vertical swipes but unlike keyboards like Minuum, it would let you enter deliberately misspelled words easily if you wanted.
That would be a cool thing for teens who want to always be messaging no matter what they're doing. They like to share pics too so that still needs the phone camera but conversations during dinner or classes would be trivial and wouldn't requires drawing out each letter, which makes it obvious what they're doing. Apple seems to be putting a focus on fitness and biometrics but I think the big thing is the casual communication.
The above text input I think should be system-wide so that it allows people to tweet and update Facebook messages and any app developer would just incorporate it. A 3G connection allows them to use Siri too.
With a round bezel, the text input method could be swiping round the outside, which would be a bit easier:
You would tap to enable the check box and then just run your finger round the outside, you'd get an idea roughly where the letters were after using it for a while so you could just jump to the rough area and let go to accept. Swipe left to delete, swipe right for space and there could be a pinch gesture to switch the outer wheel between letters, numbers, emoji and punctuation. Auto-complete would just be greyed out and swipe right to accept and insert space. Tap can be insert a period.
I'd like to see a Retina A4 sized iPad, a Retina 17" MacBook and a Retina 30" iMac.
I have no interest whatsoever in any of those products. They represent no value to me. Others are free to buy, of course. I wonder if Apple could sell 10-15M in their first year of any of them to be a success?
1) The latter two, not even close.
2) He said that "10-15 million would be disappointing."
Actual use is what determines charging. If you use it only as a watch, I'm betting the Apple watch could last a whole week. Cook said ONE DAY UNDER INTENSE USE. He didn't distinguish the small watch from the big one, so the large one probably last 1.5 days under intense use. Most people would not use the watch that intensively.
BTW, people here made the calculation that with the size of the battery, a 2 amp charger would charge the whole battery in 30 minutes... If the battery is not fully discharged, probably on average 20 minutes would be sufficient. BTW, if you use it all day long for notifications and responses and playing songs through you bluetooth headset, that's a hell of a lot of use, much more than your poor little watch.
I'm really interested to see what the final product can do in this regard. A 0%->100% battery charge in <30m is an important spec. I would also expect lots of third party charging options: docks, cables and portable packs. You sort of solve a lot of issues with a little silver dollar sized battery pack you toss in your coat pocket, bag, or wherever. A bedsize dock will be popular, as will one that sits near the shower.