Hell, 5 million would be impressive, if it wasn't Apple. I only say that because Tim Cook has already said that he doesn't believe in the law of large numbers (har... you're a funny guy, Tim)... or, what he meant to say... that Apple will continue to grow at a good clip.
The Law of large Numbers have been telling the "experts" that Apple will top out and then fall years ago. Jean-Louis Gassée wrote a great article on it just this week.
How many people believe that Apple will sell 85 million iPhones next holiday quarter or 60 million iPhones in the following quarter 2016?
I think both are very likely, and I would even say that 100 million iPhones next holiday quarter can happen, especially if they do come out with a 3rd iPhone 6S model that is smaller than the 4.7" model.
If either of those numbers actually shrink from the year before, Q1 & Q2 2015, then the Apple Watch will have to sell more than 5 or 10 million units to see Apple grow at a good clip... unless, of course, iPad sales all pick up.
I won't begin to compare the ?Watch's success for Apple in terms of pushing their revenue and profits. It's a new product category. I think even the iPhone took a few years before it really made a difference to Apple's bottom line. When did it first surpass the Mac and iPod lines in either of those areas?
Personally, I expect the margins to be good and the revenue over a billion dollars USD the first year, but that's less than 3 million units at the minimum price point. I just think even today over $1 billion in revenue out of the gate is a success in its own right, even for the most valuable company in the world.
PS: How much has Pebble generated in terms of revenue, profits and unit sales? What percent of the market do they own? I see then like Blackberry in 2007 with their successful pager-phone. They have a successful product for a niche market but it's limited in a lot of ways with their tech. Of course, out of the gate ?Watch will be flashier and likely not have some features that Pebble has (the way the iPhone didn't have cut/paste or '3G') but I didn't think that was going to stop the iPhone and I don't think some carefully excluded features will stop ?Watch.
The Law of large Numbers have been telling the "experts" that Apple will top out and then fall years ago. Jean-Louis Gassée wrote a great article on it just this week.
Well, then both Tim and Jean Louis don't know what the law of large numbers actually means. I know what they meant to say but the law of large numbers has nothing to do with business growth.
I think both are very likely, and I would even say that 100 million iPhones next holiday quarter can happen, especially if they do come out with a 3rd iPhone 6S model that is smaller than the 4.7" model.
100 million? Possible, sure... anything is possible. Probable... not in my opinion. Equal to or 80 million, tops, imo.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismY
I won't begin to compare the ?Watch's success for Apple in terms of pushing their revenue and profits. It's a new product category. I think even the iPhone took a few years before it really made a difference to Apple's bottom line. When did it first surpass the Mac and iPod lines in either of those areas?
... and that's just it. A few years. A few years in business is almost equal to a few years in politics. If that's the case then hopefully Apple will introduce a couple of new categories in the next 2 or 3 years... if it plans on expanding, that is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismY
Personally, I expect the margins to be good and the revenue over a billion dollars USD the first year, but that's less than 3 million units at the minimum price point. I just think even today over $1 billion in revenue out of the gate is a success in its own right, even for the most valuable company in the world.
Of course it is... but not necessarily to an investor and that's the only way I look at anything that Apple does.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismY
PS: How much has Pebble generated in terms of revenue, profits and unit sales? What percent of the market do they own? I see then like Blackberry in 2007 with their successful pager-phone. They have a successful product for a niche market but it's limited in a lot of ways with their tech. Of course, out of the gate ?Watch will be flashier and likely not have some features that Pebble has (the way the iPhone didn't have cut/paste or '3G') but I didn't think that was going to stop the iPhone and I don't think some carefully excluded features will stop ?Watch.
The only area where none of these companies can really compete is iOS and its ecosystem. That's a huge almost insurmountable obstacle. Even with that advantage Apple could still fail because it didn't read the market correctly... not likely but possible. Would a fail on Apple's behalf help the other companies... I doubt it... it would just make the playing field a lot more even.
100 million? Possible, sure... anything is possible. Probable... not in my opinion. Equal to or 80 million, tops, imo.
So despite production not being able to keep with demand last holiday quarter, and Apple increasing their ability to produce each year, you think that they will not exceed an additional 5.5 million units next Holiday quarter, even as more people are out of contracts and the iPhone 6 series is essentially on its second generation? That's only a 6% growth YoY, right? If that happens, ceteris paribus, I will not only be shocked but may start saying that Apple is on the way down.
So despite production not being able to keep with demand last holiday quarter, and Apple increasing their ability to produce each year, you think that they will not exceed an additional 5.5 million units next Holiday quarter, even as more people are out of contracts and the iPhone 6 series is essentially on its second generation? That's only a 6% growth YoY, right? If that happens, ceteris paribus, I will not only be shocked but may start saying that Apple is on the way down.
Production hasn't been able to keep up with demand for a good many years.
I had always said that making an iPhone larger than 4" would increase the numbers in a phenomenal way... thinking in the 65 million range... never thinking 75 million... but I had been saying that long before the 5 was introduced and I thought that Apple would have introduced a 4.7" along with the 5S when it was introduced. So, to me, I felt that the 75 million was pent up demand. People wanting a larger phone, having one in the form of an Android OS, but then being able to ditch it in favor of an iPhone. Will that roll over into a phenomenal sales increase once again... imo, no. Increase, sure it is possible... but I'm thinking around 6%.
I will always contend that it's iOS, with the design being just a small factor in the overall sales. Hell, take any Android phone design, stick iOS into it and they would double the sales.
So despite production not being able to keep with demand last holiday quarter, and Apple increasing their ability to produce each year, you think that they will not exceed an additional 5.5 million units next Holiday quarter, even as more people are out of contracts and the iPhone 6 series is essentially on its second generation? That's only a 6% growth YoY, right? If that happens, ceteris paribus, I will not only be shocked but may start saying that Apple is on the way down.
Denying the antecedent is silly. Of course everything tangible is finite, but for you to use this logical fallacy as an argument implies you think Apple has already reached their apex, which is what the naysayers having been saying about Apple for as long a I can remember. I think Apple will have more iPhone production next year, as well as an increased demand that will exceed a party 6% growth for the iPhone in the Holiday quarter.
So despite production not being able to keep with demand last holiday quarter, and Apple increasing their ability to produce each year, you think that they will not exceed an additional 5.5 million units next Holiday quarter, even as more people are out of contracts and the iPhone 6 series is essentially on its second generation? That's only a 6% growth YoY, right? If that happens, ceteris paribus, I will not only be shocked but may start saying that Apple is on the way down.
Yea, I don't see 100 MM in the holiday qtr for an "S" model next year.
Yea, I don't see 100 MM in the holiday qtr for an "S" model next year.
Well, I'm saying for all iPhones, and I'm also saying I wouldn't be surprised if it happened just as 74.5 million this past quarter wasn't a, "OMG! I can't believe that is possible!" moment.
Denying the antecedent is silly. Of course everything tangible is finite, but for you to use this logical fallacy as an argument implies you think Apple has already reached their apex, which is what the naysayers having been saying about Apple for as long a I can remember. I think Apple will have more iPhone production next year, as well as an increased demand that will exceed a party 6% growth for the iPhone in the Holiday quarter.
I don't think Apple has reached their apex. Not yet anyway.
I was just wondering what happens to a company when their unit sales stop growing.
When it eventually happens to Apple... they won't be the first company to experience this.
I don't think Apple has reached their apex. Not yet anyway.
I was just wondering what happens to a company when their unit sales stop growing.
When it eventually happens to Apple... they won't be the first company to experience this.
How did other companies handle it?
1) Typically, a company's sales drop because they don't evolve effectively ith the changing culture.
2) For your assumption of "can't grow forever" to be taken in a serious fashion you need to look at reasons why a company would reach this inevitable limit. Do you think Apple, as big as they are, can't find the resources (materials and labour, as well as customers) they need to grow the company even further? I'm guessing they can and will. Sure, we can measure the finite number of humans on earth, materials available, and even the total sum of the energy of our planet, including extraterrestrial* forces adding to it. If you want to go with ultimate resources then no one, not even Apple, has even scratched the surface. My guess is Apple becomes slow and lazy and will eat itself from the inside long before the resources of this planet are used up, which means other companies will take its spot.
* By extraterrestrial I am referring to energy hitting this planet from an outside source, mostly our Sun. I am not referring to alien beings that want to come here to put stuff up our butts, although, if such perverts do exist they would be included in these values. They might even be Apple customers.
1) Typically, a company's sales drop because they don't evolve effectively ith the changing culture.
2) For your assumption of "can't grow forever" to be taken in a serious fashion you need to look at reasons why a company would reach this inevitable limit. Do you think Apple, as big as they are, can't find the resources (materials and labour, as well as customers) they need to grow the company even further? I'm guessing they can and will. Sure, we can measure the finite number of humans on earth, materials available, and even the total sum of the energy of our planet, including extraterrestrial* forces adding to it. If you want to go with ultimate resources then no one, not even Apple, has even scratched the surface. My guess is Apple becomes slow and lazy and will eat itself from the inside long before the resources of this planet are used up, which means other companies will take its spot. * By extraterrestrial I am referring to energy hitting this planet from an outside source, mostly our Sun. I am not referring to alien beings that want to come here to put stuff up our butts, although, if such perverts do exist they would be included in these values. They might even be Apple customers.
I loved the alien bit
Look... I'm not saying Apple cannot grow iPhone unit sales anymore. Apple just had its biggest Holiday quarter EVER selling 75 million iPhones. I think that number could be 90 million this year... and maybe even 120 million in a future Holiday quarter.
But 200 million in a Holiday quarter? 300 million in a Holiday quarter? Maybe not.
At that point... the iPhone will have reached its apex. Agreed?
In your first point above... you realize a company's unit sales CAN drop. But are you suggesting it will never happen to the iPhone?
As much as I'd like to believe that... I know there are limits to how many products can be sold. Whether it's materials, production, or simply the number of humans on Earth... there are limits.
Earlier I said no company can grow unit sales forever. And you seems baffled by that.
But 200 million in a Holiday quarter? 300 million in a Holiday quarter? Maybe not.
At that point... the iPhone will have reached its apex. Agreed?
I don't agree to that. There is no basis for this values being the apex.
If you look at Thomas Malthus' predictions over 200 years ago when the Earth reach an estimated 1 billion people, he thought it was near it's maximum, and yet we're at 7 billion now and growing*. That isn't to say it's a utopia, but we've discovered and invented ways to be more efficient. Why can't Apple learn to be more efficient in how they design iPhones that could lead to both the ability to have 200 or 300 MM units both produced and bought in a quarter?
But are you suggesting it will never happen to the iPhone?
Of course not. I was commenting on the logical fallacy of creating a counter-argument an unqualified absolute.
And you seems baffled by that.
I was only baffled that you'd take what equates to me saying I wouldn't be surprised if Apple sold 25% more units next holiday quarter and you replying with a comment about unlimited growth for a literal eternity.
Do you not realize that there are limits?
I had thought I made that very clear.
* I agree with estimates that put the homeostasis of the Earth's human population at about 4 billion, but that's based on the current usage of resources. As we learn to become more efficient that number will grow, unfortunately, the Earth's population will likely continue to outpace our ability to innovate more efficient means of living. This will eventually have to come to a stop (either by will or fate) if this is to remain the only object int the universe for which we survive.
Even if Apple sold only 100 million iPhones... every quarter... for the rest of our lives... they will be fine.
Historically, a single company will fall from the top or a product category will become irrelevant long before you reach a critical mass of getting every able person to purchase your product.
Historically, a single company will fall from the top or a product category will become irrelevant long before you reach a critical mass of getting every able person to purchase your product.
I don't agree to that. There is no basis for this values being the apex.
If you look at Thomas Malthus' predictions over 200 years ago when the Earth reach an estimated 1 billion people, he thought it was near it's maximum, and yet we're at 7 billion now and growing*. That isn't to say it's a utopia, but we've discovered and invented ways to be more efficient. Why can't Apple learn to be more efficient in how they design iPhones that could lead to both the ability to have 200 or 300 MM units both produced and bought in a quarter?
Of course not. I was commenting on the logical fallacy of creating a counter-argument an unqualified absolute.
I was only baffled that you'd take what equates to me saying I wouldn't be surprised if Apple sold 25% more units next holiday quarter and you replying with a comment about unlimited growth for a literal eternity.
I had thought I made that very clear.
* I agree with estimates that put the homeostasis of the Earth's human population at about 4 billion, but that's based on the current usage of resources. As we learn to become more efficient that number will grow, unfortunately, the Earth's population will likely continue to outpace our ability to innovate more efficient means of living. This will eventually have to come to a stop (either by will or fate) if this is to remain the only object int the universe for which we survive.
I originally asked "no company can grow unit sales forever, right?"
And you launched into a whole thing.
Are you saying unit sales can grow forever?
I agree eternity is a long time. And it might have been a crazy choice of words. However... we've seen units sales growth stop in just a matter of years.
Yes... iPhone unit sales have increased, year over year, since 2007. And there's no reason why they can't grow some more. I'd love to see that.
But there will be a point where iPhone unit sales stop growing. It might not be this year... it might not be next year... but it will happen.
iPod unit sales growth stopped 5 years ago. That product has run its course and will never grow again.
iPad unit sales growth has stopped too... although they might pick up again.
And while iPhone unit sales are still growing... it will eventually hit the limit.
Which will support my original comment of "no company can grow unit sales forever"
1) Historically, that's the case, I didn't say it was always the case.
2) Has Coca-Cola stopped growing?
Nobody shops, and grows their brand like Coca-Cola. Ever notice how a business in the middle of nowhere has a Coca-Cola sign? At some point that business was visited by a representative of Coca-Cola. There's literally nowhere on this planet that they won't go to increase mind share thus increasing market share.
I originally asked "no company can grow unit sales forever, right?"
And you launched into a whole thing.
Right, because it's a ridiculous comment, so I explained why that's a ridiculous comment, yet you keep suggesting I am saying infinite growth can be had from finite resources, from a statement that I wouldn't be surprised if there was a 25% YoY increase in iPhone sales.
You and many others seemed so shocked by 74.5 million sales so it might behoove you to try to not say, "Welp, it must be all down hill from here." It might be, but there is no must be, simply because it's higher than you imagined.
Comments
The Law of large Numbers have been telling the "experts" that Apple will top out and then fall years ago. Jean-Louis Gassée wrote a great article on it just this week.
I think both are very likely, and I would even say that 100 million iPhones next holiday quarter can happen, especially if they do come out with a 3rd iPhone 6S model that is smaller than the 4.7" model.
I won't begin to compare the ?Watch's success for Apple in terms of pushing their revenue and profits. It's a new product category. I think even the iPhone took a few years before it really made a difference to Apple's bottom line. When did it first surpass the Mac and iPod lines in either of those areas?
Personally, I expect the margins to be good and the revenue over a billion dollars USD the first year, but that's less than 3 million units at the minimum price point. I just think even today over $1 billion in revenue out of the gate is a success in its own right, even for the most valuable company in the world.
PS: How much has Pebble generated in terms of revenue, profits and unit sales? What percent of the market do they own? I see then like Blackberry in 2007 with their successful pager-phone. They have a successful product for a niche market but it's limited in a lot of ways with their tech. Of course, out of the gate ?Watch will be flashier and likely not have some features that Pebble has (the way the iPhone didn't have cut/paste or '3G') but I didn't think that was going to stop the iPhone and I don't think some carefully excluded features will stop ?Watch.
The Law of large Numbers have been telling the "experts" that Apple will top out and then fall years ago. Jean-Louis Gassée wrote a great article on it just this week.
Well, then both Tim and Jean Louis don't know what the law of large numbers actually means. I know what they meant to say but the law of large numbers has nothing to do with business growth.
[ I see he covered that - "This is the Law of Large Numbers, not the proper one about probabilities, but a coarser one that predicts the eventual flattening of extraordinary growth." ]
I think both are very likely, and I would even say that 100 million iPhones next holiday quarter can happen, especially if they do come out with a 3rd iPhone 6S model that is smaller than the 4.7" model.
100 million? Possible, sure... anything is possible. Probable... not in my opinion. Equal to or 80 million, tops, imo.
I won't begin to compare the ?Watch's success for Apple in terms of pushing their revenue and profits. It's a new product category. I think even the iPhone took a few years before it really made a difference to Apple's bottom line. When did it first surpass the Mac and iPod lines in either of those areas?
... and that's just it. A few years. A few years in business is almost equal to a few years in politics. If that's the case then hopefully Apple will introduce a couple of new categories in the next 2 or 3 years... if it plans on expanding, that is.
Personally, I expect the margins to be good and the revenue over a billion dollars USD the first year, but that's less than 3 million units at the minimum price point. I just think even today over $1 billion in revenue out of the gate is a success in its own right, even for the most valuable company in the world.
Of course it is... but not necessarily to an investor and that's the only way I look at anything that Apple does.
PS: How much has Pebble generated in terms of revenue, profits and unit sales? What percent of the market do they own? I see then like Blackberry in 2007 with their successful pager-phone. They have a successful product for a niche market but it's limited in a lot of ways with their tech. Of course, out of the gate ?Watch will be flashier and likely not have some features that Pebble has (the way the iPhone didn't have cut/paste or '3G') but I didn't think that was going to stop the iPhone and I don't think some carefully excluded features will stop ?Watch.
The only area where none of these companies can really compete is iOS and its ecosystem. That's a huge almost insurmountable obstacle. Even with that advantage Apple could still fail because it didn't read the market correctly... not likely but possible. Would a fail on Apple's behalf help the other companies... I doubt it... it would just make the playing field a lot more even.
So despite production not being able to keep with demand last holiday quarter, and Apple increasing their ability to produce each year, you think that they will not exceed an additional 5.5 million units next Holiday quarter, even as more people are out of contracts and the iPhone 6 series is essentially on its second generation? That's only a 6% growth YoY, right? If that happens, ceteris paribus, I will not only be shocked but may start saying that Apple is on the way down.
So despite production not being able to keep with demand last holiday quarter, and Apple increasing their ability to produce each year, you think that they will not exceed an additional 5.5 million units next Holiday quarter, even as more people are out of contracts and the iPhone 6 series is essentially on its second generation? That's only a 6% growth YoY, right? If that happens, ceteris paribus, I will not only be shocked but may start saying that Apple is on the way down.
Production hasn't been able to keep up with demand for a good many years.
I had always said that making an iPhone larger than 4" would increase the numbers in a phenomenal way... thinking in the 65 million range... never thinking 75 million... but I had been saying that long before the 5 was introduced and I thought that Apple would have introduced a 4.7" along with the 5S when it was introduced. So, to me, I felt that the 75 million was pent up demand. People wanting a larger phone, having one in the form of an Android OS, but then being able to ditch it in favor of an iPhone. Will that roll over into a phenomenal sales increase once again... imo, no. Increase, sure it is possible... but I'm thinking around 6%.
I will always contend that it's iOS, with the design being just a small factor in the overall sales. Hell, take any Android phone design, stick iOS into it and they would double the sales.
No company can grow units sales forever, right?
Denying the antecedent is silly. Of course everything tangible is finite, but for you to use this logical fallacy as an argument implies you think Apple has already reached their apex, which is what the naysayers having been saying about Apple for as long a I can remember. I think Apple will have more iPhone production next year, as well as an increased demand that will exceed a party 6% growth for the iPhone in the Holiday quarter.
Yea, I don't see 100 MM in the holiday qtr for an "S" model next year.
Well, I'm saying for all iPhones, and I'm also saying I wouldn't be surprised if it happened just as 74.5 million this past quarter wasn't a, "OMG! I can't believe that is possible!" moment.
I don't think Apple has reached their apex. Not yet anyway.
I was just wondering what happens to a company when their unit sales stop growing.
When it eventually happens to Apple... they won't be the first company to experience this.
How did other companies handle it?
1) Typically, a company's sales drop because they don't evolve effectively ith the changing culture.
2) For your assumption of "can't grow forever" to be taken in a serious fashion you need to look at reasons why a company would reach this inevitable limit. Do you think Apple, as big as they are, can't find the resources (materials and labour, as well as customers) they need to grow the company even further? I'm guessing they can and will. Sure, we can measure the finite number of humans on earth, materials available, and even the total sum of the energy of our planet, including extraterrestrial* forces adding to it. If you want to go with ultimate resources then no one, not even Apple, has even scratched the surface. My guess is Apple becomes slow and lazy and will eat itself from the inside long before the resources of this planet are used up, which means other companies will take its spot.
* By extraterrestrial I am referring to energy hitting this planet from an outside source, mostly our Sun. I am not referring to alien beings that want to come here to put stuff up our butts, although, if such perverts do exist they would be included in these values. They might even be Apple customers.
I loved the alien bit
Look... I'm not saying Apple cannot grow iPhone unit sales anymore. Apple just had its biggest Holiday quarter EVER selling 75 million iPhones. I think that number could be 90 million this year... and maybe even 120 million in a future Holiday quarter.
But 200 million in a Holiday quarter? 300 million in a Holiday quarter? Maybe not.
At that point... the iPhone will have reached its apex. Agreed?
In your first point above... you realize a company's unit sales CAN drop. But are you suggesting it will never happen to the iPhone?
As much as I'd like to believe that... I know there are limits to how many products can be sold. Whether it's materials, production, or simply the number of humans on Earth... there are limits.
Earlier I said no company can grow unit sales forever. And you seems baffled by that.
Do you not realize that there are limits?
Even if they do apex, they’re more likely to plateau than to drop. Which wouldn't be bad at all considering the position they're in.
I don't agree to that. There is no basis for this values being the apex.
If you look at Thomas Malthus' predictions over 200 years ago when the Earth reach an estimated 1 billion people, he thought it was near it's maximum, and yet we're at 7 billion now and growing*. That isn't to say it's a utopia, but we've discovered and invented ways to be more efficient. Why can't Apple learn to be more efficient in how they design iPhones that could lead to both the ability to have 200 or 300 MM units both produced and bought in a quarter?
Of course not. I was commenting on the logical fallacy of creating a counter-argument an unqualified absolute.
I was only baffled that you'd take what equates to me saying I wouldn't be surprised if Apple sold 25% more units next holiday quarter and you replying with a comment about unlimited growth for a literal eternity.
I had thought I made that very clear.
* I agree with estimates that put the homeostasis of the Earth's human population at about 4 billion, but that's based on the current usage of resources. As we learn to become more efficient that number will grow, unfortunately, the Earth's population will likely continue to outpace our ability to innovate more efficient means of living. This will eventually have to come to a stop (either by will or fate) if this is to remain the only object int the universe for which we survive.
Oh of course.
Even if Apple sold only 100 million iPhones... every quarter... for the rest of our lives... they will be fine.
Historically, a single company will fall from the top or a product category will become irrelevant long before you reach a critical mass of getting every able person to purchase your product.
Tell Coca-Cola that.
1) Historically, that's the case, I didn't say it was always the case.
2) Has Coca-Cola stopped growing?
I originally asked "no company can grow unit sales forever, right?"
And you launched into a whole thing.
Are you saying unit sales can grow forever?
I agree eternity is a long time. And it might have been a crazy choice of words. However... we've seen units sales growth stop in just a matter of years.
Yes... iPhone unit sales have increased, year over year, since 2007. And there's no reason why they can't grow some more. I'd love to see that.
But there will be a point where iPhone unit sales stop growing. It might not be this year... it might not be next year... but it will happen.
iPod unit sales growth stopped 5 years ago. That product has run its course and will never grow again.
iPad unit sales growth has stopped too... although they might pick up again.
And while iPhone unit sales are still growing... it will eventually hit the limit.
Which will support my original comment of "no company can grow unit sales forever"
Nobody shops, and grows their brand like Coca-Cola. Ever notice how a business in the middle of nowhere has a Coca-Cola sign? At some point that business was visited by a representative of Coca-Cola. There's literally nowhere on this planet that they won't go to increase mind share thus increasing market share.
Right, because it's a ridiculous comment, so I explained why that's a ridiculous comment, yet you keep suggesting I am saying infinite growth can be had from finite resources, from a statement that I wouldn't be surprised if there was a 25% YoY increase in iPhone sales.
You and many others seemed so shocked by 74.5 million sales so it might behoove you to try to not say, "Welp, it must be all down hill from here." It might be, but there is no must be, simply because it's higher than you imagined.