Nobody shops, and grows their brand like Coca-Cola. Ever notice how a business in the middle of nowhere has a Coca-Cola sign? At some point that business was visited by a representative of Coca-Cola. There's literally nowhere on this planet that they won't go to increase mind share thus increasing market share.
That doesn't answer my question. Are you saying that Coca-Cola has no more growth opportunity? I'm under the impression they do.
You and many others seemed so shocked by 74.5 million sales so it might behoove you to try to not say, "Welp, it must be all down hill from here." It might be, but there is no must be, simply because it's higher than you imagined.
I must have missed the part where someone said they were "shocked" by 74.5 million sales.
Mind share wise I believe they've hit their goal. With so much competition, and health consciousness increasing they'll never hit that goal of getting that many consumers to purchase their product, but they're sure as hell trying to.
So you weren't surprised that YoY unit sale increases when from 51MM to 75MM, almost a 50% increase, but you'll be shocked if it goes up a mere 5.5MM, or around 6% more, YoY?
So you weren't surprised that YoY unit sale increases when from 51MM to 75MM, almost a 50% increase, but you'll be shocked if it goes up a mere 5.5MM, or around 6% more, YoY?
So you weren't surprised that YoY unit sale increases when from 51MM to 75MM, almost a 50% increase, but you'll be shocked if it goes up a mere 5.5MM, or around 6% more, YoY?
As I said to you previously, I expected 65 million a year before that (2014 Q1) because I thought Apple was going to bring out a 4.7" phone alongside the 5S. That was the big increase that I thought would happen. When it came a year later, I again expected 65 million, just because of supply constraints. So I was surprised, but not shocked, that Cook was able to get 74 million made... the selling part was more or less expected. I attributed this to pent up demand for a larger iOS phone... as I have always maintained. (and for 2015 Q1 I would have expected around 6% on top of the 65 million)
Next year I expect growth to go back to a more normal state.
[ ... and again with the "shocked"?? I said nothing even close to that... not even remotely close. ]
It better look and feel better in person than it photographs- that's all I got to say. Of course they have to get a store like Swatch already has- don't you think people want to try it on first before they fork over all that cash? you really can't do that in Apple stores as they are now.
Its very strange that you hate the watch and think it will be an utter failure yet you waste so much time posting about it. If i hated something so much i would just ignore the topic and not waste my time. Makes me wonder what your true intentions are.
Lets make a bet Mr pazuzu.
If Apple sells 10 million Watches in its first 12 months of release you will ban yourself for 1 month. If they dont I'll ban myself for 1 month. 10 million in the first year would be the fastest selling Apple product in its history. So will you put your money where your mouth is or are you just hot air? If you dont accept my challange then we will know your true motivation.
Wrong.
iPad did over 15 million in its first year. iPhone did over 10 million.
If apple sells 10 million watches in its first 12 months (which would be the fastest selling apple product ever) you ban yourself for a month. If not i will ban myself.
Its time to put your "money" where your mouth is
I didn't give any number. I'm not against a bet. I was going to be $1.
Apple will sell a lot. I have no doubt about that. Especially the first year.
My point is that it will be a niche product. 10 million a year is still a niche. After that it will drop.
If you think people don't upgrade iPads that much, wait until the watch. The iPad at least provides a ton of value for the price. Sadly, the watch will not. Again, for $349 and up to have an extended screen (with some health sensors), it's not worth upgrading even every 4 years. Some developers or was it people who sold the health sensors to Apple? They were disappointed that the phone had few sensors compared to what was available for sensors in a watch. Now, if the watch comes out with many types of health sensors, then it provides a lot more value. But people would be pissed if a new watch came out every year. There is a law of diminishing returns. It is very steep with a watch. My iPhone 6+ was "expensive", but provides a ton of value and I can see myself continuing to upgrade, at a cost, to a new iPhone every year - if there is enough reason and value to do so. Not a phone.
I only speak for myself as a consumer. The watch - I would not buy one for that price. If it was $100, I'd jump on it. At $199, heck, I'd probably still get it. $349 is a deal breaker. It's a no-go. A lot of people will be in that camp. So, niche product it is.
No reason to bet for a ban. I will bet against myself only, because it's a challenge for me to guess what the outcome will be. I'm the type to bet what my Costco bill will be at the checkout.
If you win, good for you. If I win, I'm fine with that.
In fact, I hope the watch blows me away and sells like made and is amazing. No one wants to see a ho hum Apple product.
10 million a year is still a niche. After that it will drop.
If you think people don't upgrade iPads that much, wait until the watch.
It's hard to see how besting the iPhone in its first four quarter sales means it's a niche product. Is the iPhone a niche product? Did you perceive it as such in 2007 and 2008?
The iPad dropped because it shot up much faster than any other product in Apple's history, and yet the common pessimistic view around here is that if the ?Watch accessory doesn't far exceed iPad sales in the first year it's not a success. That's some bullshit.
10 million a year is still a niche. After that it will drop.
If you think people don't upgrade iPads that much, wait until the watch.
It's hard to see how besting the iPhone in its first four quarter sales means it's a niche product. Is the iPhone a niche product? Did you perceive it as such in 2007 and 2008?
The iPad dropped because it shot up much faster than any other product in Apple's history, and yet the common pessimistic view around here is that if the ?Watch accessory doesn't far exceed iPad sales in the first year it's not a success. That's some bullshit.
Context is everything.
10 million in 2007 would not have been niche for Apple, no siree. 10 million in 2015 is, indeed, a niche and, yes, a failure.
10 million in 2007 would not have been niche for Apple, no siree. 10 million in 2015 is, indeed, a niche and, yes, a failure.
Yes... context is everything.
Selling 10 million of almost anything is a success... unless your goal was to sell 20 million. Then you have failed to meet your goal.
Quite.
I haven't seen Cook's internal targets, but I bet they're closer to 20 million than 10 million for the Apple Watch. His coyness in not wanting to reveal sales figures is a terribly obvious admission of defeat on his part.
Right, because it's a ridiculous comment, so I explained why that's a ridiculous comment, yet you keep suggesting I am saying infinite growth can be had from finite resources, from a statement that I wouldn't be surprised if there was a 25% YoY increase in iPhone sales.
I simply asked if unit sales can grow forever... but I already knew the answer:
They can't.
You're right... I jumped on the hyperbole train. "Forever" was a little crazy to even mention.
Thanks for pointing out my ridiculous comment (even though no one else did)
On topic: Yes... the iPhone went from 51 million in Holiday 2013 to 74.5 million in Holiday 2014. Like you said... almost 50% growth. Amazing numbers... no doubt.
But wouldn't going from a 50% increase YoY to only a 25% increase be considered a bad thing?
Anything less than 50% growth and the pitchforks will be coming for Tim Cook!
I haven't seen Cook's internal targets, but I bet they're closer to 20 million than 10 million for the Apple Watch. His coyness in not wanting to reveal sales figures is a terribly obvious admission of defeat on his part.
only a total idiot would think selling 10-15 million of a first generation product it its FIRST YEAR is a defeat.
If you think the Watch will be a failure take my bet.
If Apple sells 15 million watches in its first 12 months you ban yourself for 1 month. If they sell under 15 million I'll ban myself.
I have always said that 15 million would be a success, if slightly disappointing. 20 million would be a triumph. 10 million or fewer a failure.
Comments
That doesn't answer my question. Are you saying that Coca-Cola has no more growth opportunity? I'm under the impression they do.
They have tons of growth opportunity especially since 99.9% of the population can afford the product.
So have they hit that goal or not?
You and many others seemed so shocked by 74.5 million sales so it might behoove you to try to not say, "Welp, it must be all down hill from here." It might be, but there is no must be, simply because it's higher than you imagined.
I must have missed the part where someone said they were "shocked" by 74.5 million sales.
Checked the news sources, and the thread on AI. Everyone was going berserk over the record quarter.
Checked the news sources, and the thread on AI. Everyone was going berserk over the record quarter.
In this thread?
[Michael didn't seem shocked. I wasn't shocked. ]
Mind share wise I believe they've hit their goal. With so much competition, and health consciousness increasing they'll never hit that goal of getting that many consumers to purchase their product, but they're sure as hell trying to.
So you weren't surprised that YoY unit sale increases when from 51MM to 75MM, almost a 50% increase, but you'll be shocked if it goes up a mere 5.5MM, or around 6% more, YoY?
Shocked that it wasn't more. HA!!!!
So you weren't surprised that YoY unit sale increases when from 51MM to 75MM, almost a 50% increase, but you'll be shocked if it goes up a mere 5.5MM, or around 6% more, YoY?
As I said to you previously, I expected 65 million a year before that (2014 Q1) because I thought Apple was going to bring out a 4.7" phone alongside the 5S. That was the big increase that I thought would happen. When it came a year later, I again expected 65 million, just because of supply constraints. So I was surprised, but not shocked, that Cook was able to get 74 million made... the selling part was more or less expected. I attributed this to pent up demand for a larger iOS phone... as I have always maintained. (and for 2015 Q1 I would have expected around 6% on top of the 65 million)
Next year I expect growth to go back to a more normal state.
[ ... and again with the "shocked"?? I said nothing even close to that... not even remotely close. ]
Wrong.
iPad did over 15 million in its first year. iPhone did over 10 million.
Nothing to explain.
He's wrong, that's all. We all make mistakes sometimes.
Lets make a bet.
If apple sells 10 million watches in its first 12 months (which would be the fastest selling apple product ever) you ban yourself for a month. If not i will ban myself.
Its time to put your "money" where your mouth is
I didn't give any number. I'm not against a bet. I was going to be $1.
Apple will sell a lot. I have no doubt about that. Especially the first year.
My point is that it will be a niche product. 10 million a year is still a niche. After that it will drop.
If you think people don't upgrade iPads that much, wait until the watch. The iPad at least provides a ton of value for the price. Sadly, the watch will not. Again, for $349 and up to have an extended screen (with some health sensors), it's not worth upgrading even every 4 years. Some developers or was it people who sold the health sensors to Apple? They were disappointed that the phone had few sensors compared to what was available for sensors in a watch. Now, if the watch comes out with many types of health sensors, then it provides a lot more value. But people would be pissed if a new watch came out every year. There is a law of diminishing returns. It is very steep with a watch. My iPhone 6+ was "expensive", but provides a ton of value and I can see myself continuing to upgrade, at a cost, to a new iPhone every year - if there is enough reason and value to do so. Not a phone.
I only speak for myself as a consumer. The watch - I would not buy one for that price. If it was $100, I'd jump on it. At $199, heck, I'd probably still get it. $349 is a deal breaker. It's a no-go. A lot of people will be in that camp. So, niche product it is.
No reason to bet for a ban. I will bet against myself only, because it's a challenge for me to guess what the outcome will be. I'm the type to bet what my Costco bill will be at the checkout.
If you win, good for you. If I win, I'm fine with that.
In fact, I hope the watch blows me away and sells like made and is amazing. No one wants to see a ho hum Apple product.
10 million in the first year would be a failure. 20 million would be a roaring success.
It's hard to see how besting the iPhone in its first four quarter sales means it's a niche product. Is the iPhone a niche product? Did you perceive it as such in 2007 and 2008?
The iPad dropped because it shot up much faster than any other product in Apple's history, and yet the common pessimistic view around here is that if the ?Watch accessory doesn't far exceed iPad sales in the first year it's not a success. That's some bullshit.
Context is everything.
10 million in 2007 would not have been niche for Apple, no siree. 10 million in 2015 is, indeed, a niche and, yes, a failure.
Context is everything.
10 million in 2007 would not have been niche for Apple, no siree. 10 million in 2015 is, indeed, a niche and, yes, a failure.
Yes... context is everything.
Selling 10 million of almost anything is a success... unless your goal was to sell 20 million. Then you have failed to meet your goal.
Quite.
I haven't seen Cook's internal targets, but I bet they're closer to 20 million than 10 million for the Apple Watch. His coyness in not wanting to reveal sales figures is a terribly obvious admission of defeat on his part.
I simply asked if unit sales can grow forever... but I already knew the answer:
They can't.
You're right... I jumped on the hyperbole train. "Forever" was a little crazy to even mention.
Thanks for pointing out my ridiculous comment (even though no one else did)
On topic: Yes... the iPhone went from 51 million in Holiday 2013 to 74.5 million in Holiday 2014. Like you said... almost 50% growth. Amazing numbers... no doubt.
But wouldn't going from a 50% increase YoY to only a 25% increase be considered a bad thing?
Anything less than 50% growth and the pitchforks will be coming for Tim Cook!
I have always said that 15 million would be a success, if slightly disappointing. 20 million would be a triumph. 10 million or fewer a failure.