5M+ Apple Watch units to be built for launch, 18k gold 'Edition' could be Apple's most expensive pro

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  • Reply 41 of 126
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post



    The bet, as I recall, is if Apple doesn't sell 15MM units or more in the entire world in the first calendar year of sales* then @sog35 will not post for a month. If they do sell 15MM units or more in the first calendar year then whomever takes his bet will need to not post for a month. It's on the honour system.



    You'll have to get with sog35 to see if he thinks 20MM units is too high. What I don't understand about his betting is what he gets out of it by having those people not post. And why he thinks others would like him to not post for a month. If Apple sells 14.9 million units he loses, but that's significantly higher than those that having been calling this a failure for months, yet he would be banned.. despite being much lose to being right than others who took his bet but are only assuming 3MM, 5MM or 10MM, for example.



    It would be more useful if you had to do donate money to charity (something I did when i lost a bet to @SpamSandwich(?) a couple years back) or do something embarrassing (like Sherlock Holmes has to do on Elementary when he needs to get assistance for a case from the "We are Everyone” hacker group) that is posted to a YouTube video, for example.

     

    The question I have... "How will we know how many are sold?".

     

    It will all be speculation.

  • Reply 42 of 126
    jd_in_sbjd_in_sb Posts: 1,589member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by foggyhill View Post

     

     

    Well, seems you must live in a very special place then (Silicon Valley ?) cause it sold not that much initially. Were those people lying? ;-). I only really heard about it months later, the second version, the Iphone 2G, had lots more buzz from my perspective in Canada.




    I live in Santa Barbara, California. Several people I know bought the iPhone 1, myself included. The original iPhone took 74 days to sell a million and had sold 10 million by day 365. The iPhone 6/+ sells 800,000+ per day.

  • Reply 43 of 126
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Big Brother 84 View Post

     



    I'll be the first one you know then. I'll be there on launch day, Apple Pay enabled iPhone in hand


     

    Line forms behind me. I'm buying two. All I can say is that I can't afford the edition. Other than that, I'm still not sure which ones it will be.

     

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pmz View Post

     

     

    Its the single greatest iPhone accessory ever made. The approximate market size is 400-500 million active users.

     

    They will sell every single Apple Watch they can produce in 2015.


     

    There's a strategy of scarcity leading to desire too. Of course, it can't be taken to extremes...

  • Reply 44 of 126
    crowleycrowley Posts: 7,889member
    sog35 wrote: »
    simply math.

    6 million for the opening push and its not even the holiday season.  Holiday seasons will easily sell 7 million, leaving only 2 million for the other 7 months.
    Simple math based on what?

    Apple have sold a grand total of 0 ?Watches so far. The news that they're making a whole bunch of them means next to nothing, as who knows how many they'll sell. Presumably Apple are confident, and maybe that confidence is based on well-formed market research, but until the sales start racking in it's all just speculation.

    You haven't won your bet yet. You're 15 million sales away from winning it, same as yesterday.
  • Reply 45 of 126
    The question I have... "How will we know how many are sold?".

    It will all be speculation.

    1) If they sell that many I think we'll know about it because it will be the fastest selling CE in the history of tech, which will be a milestone for Apple, a milestone for a CE accessory, and the first new product category success from CEO Tim Cook. Tim may be modest but I don't think it would help anyone to ignore those numbers in the Accessories category.

    2) Even if they had stated the numbers would be broken out it would still be possible to get an unresolved solution. For example, how many iPhones did Apple sell in the first full year? If you count 4 quarters you get a year, but you also miss around 90 days of that first quarter because they started the last weekend of that quarter (as usual) and sold about 270k units.

    If you exclude that first weekend and then count the next full quarter you do get the first 4 full quarters on the market, which you may use by itself or extract 270k units from that number to get full calendar year, neither of which is exact.

    This means that the results have to have no ambiguity and I only see that if [@]sog35[/@] is right, because it's going to break many records. But that's just speculation. He could still win and we won't necessarily know it. It's a weird bet.
  • Reply 46 of 126
    crowleycrowley Posts: 7,889member
    ^ Supply chain genius Mr Cook also presided over the iMac supply cock up, got the mix wrong in the iPhone 5S/5C launch, and hardballed a major supplier so much that they went bankrupt.

    You can have faith in him if you want, but it's faith, not fact. Stop counting your chickens before they've hatched.
  • Reply 47 of 126
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,166member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    The bet, as I recall, is if Apple doesn't sell 15MM units or more in the entire world in the first calendar year of sales* then @sog35 will not post for a month. If they do sell 15MM units or more in the first calendar year then whomever takes his bet will need to not post for a month. It's on the honour system.



    You'll have to get with sog35 to see if he thinks 20MM units is too high. What I don't understand about his betting is what he gets out of it by having those people not post. And why he thinks others would like him to not post for a month. If Apple sells 14.9 million units he loses, but that's significantly higher than those that having been calling this a failure for months, yet he would be banned.. despite being much lose to being right than others who took his bet but are only assuming 3MM, 5MM or 10MM, for example.



    It would be more useful if you had to do donate money to charity (something I did when i lost a bet to @SpamSandwich(?) a couple years back) or do something embarrassing (like Sherlock Holmes has to do on Elementary when he needs to get assistance for a case from the "We are Everyone” hacker group) that is posted to a YouTube video, for example.

    Not much pain for the losers, bragging rights for the winner, I suppose. Looks like status quo in the Department of Arguments.

     

    I wish there was a system where we could up vote someone, over time, to be a "guest" front pager, i.e., someone who is allowed to post pertinent articles. There are a lot of members on here that are very knowledgable and some would be good writers. Dailykos is famed for this, and in many cases, the front pagers have expertise exceeding traditional media sources.

     

    Nothing wrong with the writers now, but, there's always room for new perspectives.

  • Reply 48 of 126
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,166member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tmay View Post

     

    Not much pain for the losers, bragging rights for the winner, I suppose. Looks like status quo in the Department of Arguments.

     

    I wish there was a system where we could up vote someone, over time, to be a "guest" front pager, i.e., someone who is allowed to post pertinent articles. There are a lot of members on here that are very knowledgable and some would be good writers. Dailykos is famed for this, and in many cases, the front pagers have expertise exceeding traditional media sources.

     

    Nothing wrong with the writers now, but, there's always room for new perspectives.




    SOG,

     

    Peer into your crystal ball; what are the odds on Apple entering the automobile manufacturing business (I'm skeptical; not much money in it) and what are chances of Silicon Valley Techs stealing the football from the traditional manufacturers.

     

    This would be an example of being rewarded for being right; you get to become a "pundit".

  • Reply 49 of 126
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by tmay View Post



    SOG,

     

    Peer into your crystal ball; what are the odds on Apple entering the automobile manufacturing business (I'm skeptical; not much money in it) and what are chances of Silicon Valley Techs stealing the football from the traditional manufacturers.


     

    sog35 the demigod. Seer of the ages. hahahahahahaha

     

    Johnny Carson comes to mind.

  • Reply 50 of 126
    crowleycrowley Posts: 7,889member
    sog35 wrote: »
    $18,000,000,000 in profits in 3 months. Most in the history of the world.

    I'm sorry Mr Cook is the man.

    Why don't you take my 15 million bet?

    Because I don't have anything to gain from it? I don't really care if Apple sell more or less than 15 million units, and I certainly have no knowledge of how likely it'd be. As such it's not a very interesting gamble, except as bragging rights, which I don't really care for.

    Tim Cook is great. I wouldn't put anyone else in charge of Apple even if I had the power. But infallible he is not. Omniscient he is not. I'm sure he'd say the same. And I don't try to predict the future based on my admiration of him.
  • Reply 51 of 126
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,166member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

     

     

    sog35 the demigod. Seer of the ages. hahahahahahaha

     

    Johnny Carson comes to mind.


    Priceless!!!

  • Reply 52 of 126
    sog35 wrote: »
    IN fact since I made the 15 million unit challange to Pazuzu I have not seen him making comments about the Apple watch.  Mission accomplished.


    [VIDEO]
  • Reply 53 of 126
    pmz wrote: »
     
    Its the single greatest iPhone accessory ever made. The approximate market size is 400-500 million active users.

    They will sell every single Apple Watch they can produce in 2015.

    That may well be true... but it still doesn't change the fact that I (or the other person) haven't heard anyone saying that they are interested in it.

    Now, you both have heard from someone (I use my real name, here) that intends to buy 5 -- one for each member of our household!

    We all have iPhones (5 and above) and iPads (2 and above).


    The Apple Watch will have the ability to notify family when any of us is in danger -- excessive or no pulse rate.

    That, alone, justifies the Apple Watch!

    In 2001, my wife died suddenly, unexpectedly -- while I was less than 40 feet away in the computer room ...
  • Reply 54 of 126
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post





    Now, you both have heard from someone (I use my real name, here) that intends to buy 5 -- one for each member of our household!



    We all have iPhones (5 and above) and iPads (2 and above).



    The Apple Watch will have the ability to notify family when any of us is in danger -- excessive or no pulse rate.



    That, alone, justifies the Apple Watch!



    In 2001, my wife died suddenly, unexpectedly -- while I was less than 40 feet away in the computer room ...

     

    Just curious, Dick, did you buy the first iPhone?

  • Reply 55 of 126
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DougD View Post



    I so do NOT want an Apple watch. My TAG does all I want: tells me the time and the battery lasts a couple years. Still, I'm sure plenty of "kids" will buy them. But I don't think this is an old fart (me) device.



    Then when you fall down the TAG can mark you're remaining moments rather than offer any assistance through monitoring functions that it doesn't have, being only a timepiece.

  • Reply 56 of 126
    Now, you both have heard from someone (I use my real name, here) that intends to buy 5 -- one for each member of our household!


    We all have iPhones (5 and above) and iPads (2 and above).


    The Apple Watch will have the ability to notify family when any of us is in danger -- excessive or no pulse rate.


    That, alone, justifies the Apple Watch!


    In 2001, my wife died suddenly, unexpectedly -- while I was less than 40 feet away in the computer room ...

    Just curious, Dick, did you buy the first iPhone?

    Yep!

    Three ... 1 for My Daughter, 1 for me and 1 for development -- Would have bought 4, except there was only 1 8GB left, and the guy behind me in line had been waiting for hours ...


    1000

    AT&T had some sweet irony ... the line blocked the front of the Sprint store ... Sprint customers stayed away in droves ...
  • Reply 57 of 126
    Contrary to another person posting, when the iPhone announced it was so new a concept I did not know anyone who planned to buy one. Too expensive was the constant refrain, and a friend of mine who likes good tech was sure he would never have one. People would ask me about mine. I felt like I was carrying a baby cheetah around or something. Now nobody notices. Others get the newer model first. I know several folks who will wait and see, but all the $100-$250 fitness bands and $450 Garmin type watches out there suggest to me a large market. Like the iPhone, many I knew wondered how much more it could do than a regular phone. Lots, and more each year. So they have sold in ways we are all aware of. The Apple Watch will not be as big, but it will not collect dust on shelves. For $350 doing all it will do, it will sell.
  • Reply 58 of 126
    zoetmbzoetmb Posts: 2,582member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

    $18,000,000,000 in profits in 3 months. Most in the history of the world.

    I'm sorry Mr Cook is the man.




    Yes, but that doesn't mean that Apple is perfect or never makes mistakes.   And there's a difference between sales success and quality (eat at McDonald's to see how that works).   Although it wasn't Tim's, remember the Mac G4 Cube?   My son-in-law does Mac support for a production house and they see lots of Macs that are dead out of the box.   And on existing Macs, they see lots of drive and video failures.   (Of course all that keeps him employed, so it's not all bad.)

     

    Apple is also starting to hit some hurdles.  Of course, Apple's "failures" have superior sales levels to other company's successes, but there are still issues.   Apple doesn't actually sell that many computers anymore and iPad sales have been down the last few quarters.   iPod sales have been down since shortly after the introduction of the iPhone.   So Apple's success is based almost totally upon the iPhone and I would maintain that success is very much about subsidized phones and payment plans that hide the true cost of the phone.   If everyone had to pay $600 or more for the phone, they would not be replacing them every year or two. 

     

    Another issue is how many devices does any one person want to own and carry?   Are people going to own a computer, Pad, iPhone and a watch?   Too many devices to keep track of, carry and sync, IMO.   And iCloud, even aside from the extra cost issues, is still not seamless.   I have constant sync issues and even something which should be really simple, like the Calendar, is a mess.  And consumers are getting a bit wiser and not buying the first version of anything.  

     

    Personally, I have absolutely no idea how many watches Apple will sell.    But I think one would have to be near insane to pay high-end dollars for a watch that will be functionally obsolete within two years (unless most of the money for the higher-end models is in the band).  When one buys a premium high-end watch today, it's expected to last for decades.   If Apple thinks it can command the same money (in the high-end models) for a watch that needs to be replaced every few years, that's only going to work for the few people for which money is absolutely no object.   

     

    For me personally (although that means absolutely nothing as the actions of any one person in no way reflects the market), there is no way I buy that watch.   I don't wear a watch today and my iPhone already provides all the functionality that a watch would have served that I actually need.   Having said that, the UI for the watch that was demonstrated was quite brilliant.

     

    What Apple does have going for it is that they're so integrated into so many sales channels around the world, they can sell 10 million units of anything in a short time period.   Apple could sell high-priced toilet paper and it would be a success.   

  • Reply 59 of 126

    "Most expensive Apple product ever"? No, it won't be. Just the Mac IIfx was already a LOT more expensive than that...

     

    In any case, even less reason to buy one - otherwise, what a great battery-dead gold souvenir after just a couple of years.

  • Reply 60 of 126

    Smart watches are an interesting concept.

    But I will take a wait and see approach until they are able to work 7+days on a single charge.

    Wireless charging would also be great!

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