I would love the middle range Apple Watch but can't justify spending $2K+ on a smart watch. Especially since I don't own an iPhone yet. So that means investing a few grand. Not happening for 1st gen.
So you're admitting you don't have the money for a product you cannot afford. Seriously though, if you one get the ?Watch Sport. But I'd work on getting an iPhone first.
It will be the rare edition that no one buys. It already has a stupid name, 'Apple Watch Edition'. The watch edition? They are all watches. Apple tried the 'rare' product and priced it at $10,000. It was was a flop, no one bought it. It was called the Twentieth Anniversary Macintosh. The price was slashed to $1,999 and then some people bought it. The edition watch is real gold, so the price won't be slashed, but don't expect anyone to buy it....except for maybe a few millionaires. They will not sell 2 to 3 million of them every year. Keep dreaming. The problem Apple has is the wearable market is dead, not many people wear watches, no one wants to carry another device that is duplicated by another device, and it requires an iPhone to work. My iPhone already does everything and more than the watch can do, so why would anyone waste $350 or more on a duplicate device that has a battery that won't last a day? It's not exactly attractive looking either. Tough sell...which is why other watches haven't done well. There is a reason why Apple has placed the watch in the 'other' category on their expense reports...grouped with iPods and AppleTVs. The lemmings will buy the cheap model and say, "Look, it tells the time from my iPhone when I wake it up" ... by 4 PM ... "Oh, the battery is already dead".
The only part of this I don't agree with is, I don't believe the wearable market is dead, I think it's about to have an explosion, if someone can make a product with advanced tracking features, that works for everyone all the time. There are a lot of people who seem to want the advanced features of the jawbone up 3, but the delays were handled horribly, and maybe there having trouble getting the darn thing to work. But I think it shows people want them, but they want it to work too. I don't think apple is there yet, but this a good first step.
I was excited for this until I got a small hint on what the price might be for the model I want. I messaged my buddy who is in the know at Apple and mentioned that I want the Apple Watch (middle model) 42mm, stainless steel band and he said to budget for about $1,500. I was hoping this model will be 500-600, but I'm worried it will be priced out of my range.
Unless your friend is at Ive or Schiller's level, he ain't know s.hit. Seriously, I have bunch of friends at Apple and none of them had a clue about upcoming Apple product release/price and such. They're not better informed than any of us in this forum. So, tell your friend to focus on his work instead of giving your wrong information.
If the aluminum watch, sport model is around $350-$400, why the F stainless steel costs over 5x more? Stainless steel and aluminum prices are not much different for BOM especially we're talking about < hundred grams.
It will not be a mass market item, more like a special addition. It will use more gold then most people think. I'm thinking close to 2 ounces. That's about the same amount of gold as a rolex presidential.
I think they will sell about 2-3 million gold watches per year. That's $30,000,000,000 in revenue and $15,000,000,000 in operating profit.
If the price is too cheap like $2500 it will be too common. They want it to be a halo product and be rare.
I doubt it the gold watch would be at $10k. Gold Rolex Submariner is less than $20k with full gold bracelet, so I don't expect Gold Apple watch would be even priced at $5k with only gold case and little buckle.
All I can say is the GOLD RUSH starts on April 3rd.
Sound like you will buy at least 1 Apple Watch no matter how long the battery last. Good luck. I may wait until the generation 2...but my wife may want one...
LOL I "predicted" there would be an event announcement a couple days ago. I should totally set up a company like DigiTimes so I can make shit up and be accidentally correct on occasion¡
Start of with Cook saying how wonderful Apple is doing in sales and so forth.
Success of ?Pay and hopefully what's coming down the pipes for other countries.
Mention of those Dodge Carvans, which I'm sure they will say are for mapping (because they are in the most general term, no matter what specifics you want to apply to the rumour), even if they are also for self-driving cars at some far off future date.
New MBA designs with Retina displays, and hopefully 12" and fanless. Not expecting them to be ARM, but I would love to see that.
Mostly rehashing ?Watch features, but adding some new ones as well as more info about pricing. I'm hoping they mention how the devices will be updated, which I think would help 1st gen sales, but this is usually where Apple is foolishly (opinion) quite.
What about another bullet point at the end: "One More Thing": New Apple TV with full iOS acting as central hub for HomeKit and home entertainment. There you go. Sog35 would have orgasm over that news.
What about another bullet point at the end: "One More Thing": New Apple TV with full iOS acting as central hub for HomeKit and home entertainment. There you go. Sog35 would have orgasm over that news.
I felt like I was missing something. I would love to see a new Apple TV with 4K and HEVC/H.265 support, but I'm not sure we will until 4K content is available on iTS. If Netflix is doing it now couldn't Apple? Or at least a move to HEVC, without saying they support 4K right now. I wouldn't think the video codec change would require any new contracts to be signed for content. But would Apple do that with iTunes Store now before all their devices have been given HW decoders for HVEC? And then there is the annual iTunes even that typically takes place in the Fall. That seems like a better place for a new Apple TV.
I'm going to say I don't expect that to arrive — especially one acting like a true centralized hub that can remove the Mac/WinPC with iTunes as hub — but I sure as hell hope I'm wrong.
Sound like you will buy at least 1 Apple Watch no matter how long the battery last. Good luck. I may wait until the generation 2...but my wife may want one...
I think it will be interesting to see how soon the second generation will come? Do we think it will stick with April release or come 18 months later and be released same time as an iphone in September? Does anyone remember what the time frame was between ipad 1 and 2?
2 sport versions: 38mm and 42mm, so the prices will be different too.
I'd say they will be 4 different ?Watch Sport prices. There will be the 38mm Silver, 38mm Space Grey, 42mm Silver, and 42mm Space Gray. I'm going to guess that will likely be the order from least expensive to most expensive, although I could see the middle 38mm Space Gray and 42mm Silver being the same price.
Why is it ridiculous? A Rolex Presidential cost $15k - $25k.
$10,000 is about right for a true GOLD luxury watch. The gold alone will cost about $2500 alone.
I don't think the Gold watch will be $2500. Even if they use a mere 1/2 ounce or about $600 worth of gold. That will be a too mass market product. I think Apple is aiming the SS watch to be the mass market dress watch.
Remember the gold part is for the case and the little buckle for Apple Watch while Rolex has full gold bracelet. Gold on Apple Watch won't be more than a troy oz which is around $1200/troy ounce for 24k. For 18k, it should be at $900/troy ounce.
Just because 8.2 unlocks Apple Watch compatibility doesn't mean the feature set is fully developed. I can see where my post was poorly worded, when I wrote "if the iWatch requires IOS9 for functionality" what I mean was if there is some feature as yet unannounced that is specific to IOS9, then there may be an IOS9 tie-in.
Thank you for pointing out my lack of clarity.
They do have non iPhone requiring features coming to it in later in betas, possibly just to keep it secret what it has, or perhaps there waiting for an iOS 9/Apple watch 2 release.
So an event not scheduled for 2 years and now we know 1.Apple watch
2.Ios 8.2/(possibly iOS 8.3)
Possible to see
1.Ios 9
2.Apple tv gen 4
3.Redesigned MacBook Air
4.12 inch iPad
Remember the gold part is for the case and the little buckle for Apple Watch while Rolex has full gold bracelet. Gold on Apple Watch won't be more than a troy oz which is around $1200/troy ounce for 24k. For 18k, it should be at $900/troy ounce.
How do you know it won't be more than 1oz? Or rather, what logical assumptions and educated guesses are you making to come to that conclusion? I can certainly see Apple wanting to use as much internal space as possible for the electronics, but not being a luxury watch aficionado I have no foundation in which to build up a hypothesis on the amount of gold needed for the casing.
Trying to make a search engine that competes with Google would be a HUGE distraction for Apple.
Because trying to make a car isn't? At least the search engine is within the realm of what Apple does, and not a completely unrelated business requiring a massive capital investment and a fundamental change to their business model of maintaining high profit margins on the products they sell.
Another reason why I think the Gold Watch will be $10,000?
There isn't enough gold on the planet if they sell it for $2,500. Apple can not produce 5-10 million gold watches a year. That would strip about 50% of the gold supply. But if they charge $10,000 they will only need to sell a million watches a year to make it worth it.
A gold watch like the Rolex President has 2 ounces of gold which cost $2500 just for the gold alone.
That Rolex has a gold strap though and the whole body is gold. The Apple Watch has a huge circular area at the bottom for the sensors so the only gold part is the bezel (there will be some on the strap clasps but they'll be priced separately). Someone took apart the Rolex and weighed each part:
The case ring would be closest to what Apple has, which is about 14 grams of gold or 0.5 ounces as you said earlier. That's $600 of gold. Take the same parts from the entry $350 model without a 40% margin so $210 of parts. Add 40% margin to $810 and you get a retail price of $1350. I'd say $1299 but I guess $1499 would allow for some changes in gold prices.
Estimated gold supply per year is 50-70m Troy Ounces or 1.5-2.2 billion grams. If Apple sold 20 million watches with 14 grams, they'd use 280m grams or about 1/5th of the world's gold supply. It will vary on the amount they use and retail price:
That might be what Jony Ive meant about Switzerland being worried. Not that their marketshare would be affected but that they'd be putting pressure on the gold supply.
The reason that I don't think it will be anywhere near $5k or $10k is that it was described as mass-market luxury and they didn't want to create a class divide, they wanted everyone to be able to afford the product. Also, the gold one still has exactly the same functionality as the cheaper ones.
I reckon the pricing tiers will be such that the base one is at $349 and the next one not having gold in it won't be much higher in price but the sapphire will add to the price. No more than $600. That gives the gold one at $1299-1499 a massive price gap with some exclusivity but not out of the price range of people who might buy a Macbook Pro. Apple's Mac ASP is ~$1300.
Apple does manage to sell about 20 million Macs every year at an ASP of ~$1300 so it's possible they can sell 20 million gold watches at that price but it's more likely that the bulk of the sales will be the lower-end watches.
That Rolex has a gold strap though and the whole body is gold. The Apple Watch has a huge circular area at the bottom for the sensors so the only gold part is the bezel (there will be some on the strap clasps but they'll be priced separately). Someone took apart the Rolex and weighed each part:
The case ring would be closest to what Apple has, which is about 14 grams of gold or 0.5 ounces as you said earlier. That's $600 of gold. Take the same parts from the entry $350 model without a 40% margin so $210 of parts. Add 40% margin to $810 and you get a retail price of $1350. I'd say $1299 but I guess $1499 would allow for some changes in gold prices.
Estimated gold supply per year is 50-70m Troy Ounces or 1.5-2.2 billion grams. If Apple sold 20 million watches with 14 grams, they'd use 280m grams or about 1/5th of the world's gold supply. It will vary on the amount they use and retail price:
That might be what Jony Ive meant about Switzerland being worried. Not that their marketshare would be affected but that they'd be putting pressure on the gold supply.
The reason that I don't think it will be anywhere near $5k or $10k is that it was described as mass-market luxury and they didn't want to create a class divide, they wanted everyone to be able to afford the product. Also, the gold one still has exactly the same functionality as the cheaper ones.
I reckon the pricing tiers will be such that the base one is at $349 and the next one not having gold in it won't be much higher in price but the sapphire will add to the price. No more than $600. That gives the gold one at $1299-1499 a massive price gap with some exclusivity but not out of the price range of people who might buy a Macbook Pro. Apple's Mac ASP is ~$1300.
Apple does manage to sell about 20 million Macs every year at an ASP of ~$1300 so it's possible they can sell 20 million gold watches at that price but it's more likely that the bulk of the sales will be the lower-end watches.
"The reason that I don't think it will be anywhere near $5k or $10k is that it was described as mass-market luxury and they didn't want to create a class divide..."
LOL I "predicted" there would be an event announcement a couple days ago. I should totally set up a company like DigiTimes so I can make shit up and be accidentally correct on occasion¡
Start of with Cook saying how wonderful Apple is doing in sales and so forth.
Success of ?Pay and hopefully what's coming down the pipes for other countries.
Mention of those Dodge Carvans, which I'm sure they will say are for mapping (because they are in the most general term, no matter what specifics you want to apply to the rumour), even if they are also for self-driving cars at some far off future date.
New MBA designs with Retina displays, and hopefully 12" and fanless. Not expecting them to be ARM, but I would love to see that.
Mostly rehashing ?Watch features, but adding some new ones as well as more info about pricing. I'm hoping they mention how the devices will be updated, which I think would help 1st gen sales, but this is usually where Apple is foolishly (opinion) quite.
So you're admitting you don't have the money for a product you cannot afford. Seriously though, if you one get the ?Watch Sport. But I'd work on getting an iPhone first.
Reading is fundamental. It's not about being able to afford the watch. I wrote "I would love the middle range Apple Watch but can't justify spending $2K+ on a smart watch." I own an Android phone and LG Smartwatch. Given that the March 9th event will gives us more details about the Apple Watch, I/we will see how it compares to smart watches currently on the market. I am not keen on wasting money on 1st gen gadgets. The Apple Watch Sport looks tacky, IMO. Too reminiscent of a ~$15 slap watch. OK, I exaggerate. :-D
Comments
I would love the middle range Apple Watch but can't justify spending $2K+ on a smart watch. Especially since I don't own an iPhone yet. So that means investing a few grand. Not happening for 1st gen.
So you're admitting you don't have the money for a product you cannot afford. Seriously though, if you one get the ?Watch Sport. But I'd work on getting an iPhone first.
It will be the rare edition that no one buys. It already has a stupid name, 'Apple Watch Edition'. The watch edition? They are all watches. Apple tried the 'rare' product and priced it at $10,000. It was was a flop, no one bought it. It was called the Twentieth Anniversary Macintosh. The price was slashed to $1,999 and then some people bought it. The edition watch is real gold, so the price won't be slashed, but don't expect anyone to buy it....except for maybe a few millionaires. They will not sell 2 to 3 million of them every year. Keep dreaming. The problem Apple has is the wearable market is dead, not many people wear watches, no one wants to carry another device that is duplicated by another device, and it requires an iPhone to work. My iPhone already does everything and more than the watch can do, so why would anyone waste $350 or more on a duplicate device that has a battery that won't last a day? It's not exactly attractive looking either. Tough sell...which is why other watches haven't done well. There is a reason why Apple has placed the watch in the 'other' category on their expense reports...grouped with iPods and AppleTVs. The lemmings will buy the cheap model and say, "Look, it tells the time from my iPhone when I wake it up" ... by 4 PM ... "Oh, the battery is already dead".
The only part of this I don't agree with is, I don't believe the wearable market is dead, I think it's about to have an explosion, if someone can make a product with advanced tracking features, that works for everyone all the time. There are a lot of people who seem to want the advanced features of the jawbone up 3, but the delays were handled horribly, and maybe there having trouble getting the darn thing to work. But I think it shows people want them, but they want it to work too. I don't think apple is there yet, but this a good first step.
I was excited for this until I got a small hint on what the price might be for the model I want. I messaged my buddy who is in the know at Apple and mentioned that I want the Apple Watch (middle model) 42mm, stainless steel band and he said to budget for about $1,500. I was hoping this model will be 500-600, but I'm worried it will be priced out of my range.
Unless your friend is at Ive or Schiller's level, he ain't know s.hit. Seriously, I have bunch of friends at Apple and none of them had a clue about upcoming Apple product release/price and such. They're not better informed than any of us in this forum. So, tell your friend to focus on his work instead of giving your wrong information.
If the aluminum watch, sport model is around $350-$400, why the F stainless steel costs over 5x more? Stainless steel and aluminum prices are not much different for BOM especially we're talking about < hundred grams.
I think the Gold will sell for $10,000.
It will not be a mass market item, more like a special addition. It will use more gold then most people think. I'm thinking close to 2 ounces. That's about the same amount of gold as a rolex presidential.
I think they will sell about 2-3 million gold watches per year. That's $30,000,000,000 in revenue and $15,000,000,000 in operating profit.
If the price is too cheap like $2500 it will be too common. They want it to be a halo product and be rare.
I doubt it the gold watch would be at $10k. Gold Rolex Submariner is less than $20k with full gold bracelet, so I don't expect Gold Apple watch would be even priced at $5k with only gold case and little buckle.
All I can say is the GOLD RUSH starts on April 3rd.
Sound like you will buy at least 1 Apple Watch no matter how long the battery last. Good luck. I may wait until the generation 2...but my wife may want one...
I feel the Sport model will sell the most, but I am interested to see what mix of the mid and high-end are sold.
2 sport versions: 36mm and 42mm, so the prices will be different too.
LOL I "predicted" there would be an event announcement a couple days ago. I should totally set up a company like DigiTimes so I can make shit up and be accidentally correct on occasion¡
Predictions:
What about another bullet point at the end: "One More Thing": New Apple TV with full iOS acting as central hub for HomeKit and home entertainment. There you go. Sog35 would have orgasm over that news.
I felt like I was missing something. I would love to see a new Apple TV with 4K and HEVC/H.265 support, but I'm not sure we will until 4K content is available on iTS. If Netflix is doing it now couldn't Apple? Or at least a move to HEVC, without saying they support 4K right now. I wouldn't think the video codec change would require any new contracts to be signed for content. But would Apple do that with iTunes Store now before all their devices have been given HW decoders for HVEC? And then there is the annual iTunes even that typically takes place in the Fall. That seems like a better place for a new Apple TV.
I'm going to say I don't expect that to arrive — especially one acting like a true centralized hub that can remove the Mac/WinPC with iTunes as hub — but I sure as hell hope I'm wrong.
Sound like you will buy at least 1 Apple Watch no matter how long the battery last. Good luck. I may wait until the generation 2...but my wife may want one...
I think it will be interesting to see how soon the second generation will come? Do we think it will stick with April release or come 18 months later and be released same time as an iphone in September? Does anyone remember what the time frame was between ipad 1 and 2?
I'd say they will be 4 different ?Watch Sport prices. There will be the 38mm Silver, 38mm Space Grey, 42mm Silver, and 42mm Space Gray. I'm going to guess that will likely be the order from least expensive to most expensive, although I could see the middle 38mm Space Gray and 42mm Silver being the same price.
Why is it ridiculous? A Rolex Presidential cost $15k - $25k.
$10,000 is about right for a true GOLD luxury watch. The gold alone will cost about $2500 alone.
I don't think the Gold watch will be $2500. Even if they use a mere 1/2 ounce or about $600 worth of gold. That will be a too mass market product. I think Apple is aiming the SS watch to be the mass market dress watch.
Remember the gold part is for the case and the little buckle for Apple Watch while Rolex has full gold bracelet. Gold on Apple Watch won't be more than a troy oz which is around $1200/troy ounce for 24k. For 18k, it should be at $900/troy ounce.
So an event not scheduled for 2 years and now we know 1.Apple watch
2.Ios 8.2/(possibly iOS 8.3)
Possible to see
1.Ios 9
2.Apple tv gen 4
3.Redesigned MacBook Air
4.12 inch iPad
Unlikely:other product annocements
How do you know it won't be more than 1oz? Or rather, what logical assumptions and educated guesses are you making to come to that conclusion? I can certainly see Apple wanting to use as much internal space as possible for the electronics, but not being a luxury watch aficionado I have no foundation in which to build up a hypothesis on the amount of gold needed for the casing.
Trying to make a search engine that competes with Google would be a HUGE distraction for Apple.
Because trying to make a car isn't? At least the search engine is within the realm of what Apple does, and not a completely unrelated business requiring a massive capital investment and a fundamental change to their business model of maintaining high profit margins on the products they sell.
That Rolex has a gold strap though and the whole body is gold. The Apple Watch has a huge circular area at the bottom for the sensors so the only gold part is the bezel (there will be some on the strap clasps but they'll be priced separately). Someone took apart the Rolex and weighed each part:
http://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=240119
The bracelet alone had 51 grams.
The case ring would be closest to what Apple has, which is about 14 grams of gold or 0.5 ounces as you said earlier. That's $600 of gold. Take the same parts from the entry $350 model without a 40% margin so $210 of parts. Add 40% margin to $810 and you get a retail price of $1350. I'd say $1299 but I guess $1499 would allow for some changes in gold prices.
Estimated gold supply per year is 50-70m Troy Ounces or 1.5-2.2 billion grams. If Apple sold 20 million watches with 14 grams, they'd use 280m grams or about 1/5th of the world's gold supply. It will vary on the amount they use and retail price:
http://www.cultofmac.com/313458/demand-apple-watch-use-third-worlds-gold/
That might be what Jony Ive meant about Switzerland being worried. Not that their marketshare would be affected but that they'd be putting pressure on the gold supply.
The reason that I don't think it will be anywhere near $5k or $10k is that it was described as mass-market luxury and they didn't want to create a class divide, they wanted everyone to be able to afford the product. Also, the gold one still has exactly the same functionality as the cheaper ones.
I reckon the pricing tiers will be such that the base one is at $349 and the next one not having gold in it won't be much higher in price but the sapphire will add to the price. No more than $600. That gives the gold one at $1299-1499 a massive price gap with some exclusivity but not out of the price range of people who might buy a Macbook Pro. Apple's Mac ASP is ~$1300.
Apple does manage to sell about 20 million Macs every year at an ASP of ~$1300 so it's possible they can sell 20 million gold watches at that price but it's more likely that the bulk of the sales will be the lower-end watches.
Trying to make a mapping service that competes with Google Maps would be a huge distraction for Apple. Oh wait..
Trying to make a search engine that competes with Google would be a HUGE distraction for Apple.
That Rolex has a gold strap though and the whole body is gold. The Apple Watch has a huge circular area at the bottom for the sensors so the only gold part is the bezel (there will be some on the strap clasps but they'll be priced separately). Someone took apart the Rolex and weighed each part:
http://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=240119
The bracelet alone had 51 grams.
The case ring would be closest to what Apple has, which is about 14 grams of gold or 0.5 ounces as you said earlier. That's $600 of gold. Take the same parts from the entry $350 model without a 40% margin so $210 of parts. Add 40% margin to $810 and you get a retail price of $1350. I'd say $1299 but I guess $1499 would allow for some changes in gold prices.
Estimated gold supply per year is 50-70m Troy Ounces or 1.5-2.2 billion grams. If Apple sold 20 million watches with 14 grams, they'd use 280m grams or about 1/5th of the world's gold supply. It will vary on the amount they use and retail price:
http://www.cultofmac.com/313458/demand-apple-watch-use-third-worlds-gold/
That might be what Jony Ive meant about Switzerland being worried. Not that their marketshare would be affected but that they'd be putting pressure on the gold supply.
The reason that I don't think it will be anywhere near $5k or $10k is that it was described as mass-market luxury and they didn't want to create a class divide, they wanted everyone to be able to afford the product. Also, the gold one still has exactly the same functionality as the cheaper ones.
I reckon the pricing tiers will be such that the base one is at $349 and the next one not having gold in it won't be much higher in price but the sapphire will add to the price. No more than $600. That gives the gold one at $1299-1499 a massive price gap with some exclusivity but not out of the price range of people who might buy a Macbook Pro. Apple's Mac ASP is ~$1300.
Apple does manage to sell about 20 million Macs every year at an ASP of ~$1300 so it's possible they can sell 20 million gold watches at that price but it's more likely that the bulk of the sales will be the lower-end watches.
"The reason that I don't think it will be anywhere near $5k or $10k is that it was described as mass-market luxury and they didn't want to create a class divide..."
I'm curious to know where you heard or read that.
LOL I "predicted" there would be an event announcement a couple days ago. I should totally set up a company like DigiTimes so I can make shit up and be accidentally correct on occasion¡
Predictions:
Quite what?
Place your bets: Tim comes out at the start wearing a long sleeve shirt? Appears wearing an Apple Watch? And if so, what model?
Jony Ive video?
For sure we are going to see some demos of apps. Wonder which ones?
The app that gives you a countdown to the day that the Apple Watch is discontinued.
So you're admitting you don't have the money for a product you cannot afford. Seriously though, if you one get the ?Watch Sport. But I'd work on getting an iPhone first.
Reading is fundamental. It's not about being able to afford the watch. I wrote "I would love the middle range Apple Watch but can't justify spending $2K+ on a smart watch." I own an Android phone and LG Smartwatch. Given that the March 9th event will gives us more details about the Apple Watch, I/we will see how it compares to smart watches currently on the market. I am not keen on wasting money on 1st gen gadgets. The Apple Watch Sport looks tacky, IMO. Too reminiscent of a ~$15 slap watch. OK, I exaggerate. :-D