IDC: Apple's iPad shipments could shrink to 60M in 2015 amid slow-growing tablet market

Posted:
in iPad edited July 2015
The iPad's share of the international tablet market will likely shrink again in 2015, falling from 27.6 percent to 25.6 percent year-over-year, according to a five-year forecast issued on Thursday by research firm IDC.




Apple shipped approximately 63.4 million iPads in 2014, but is predicted to ship just 60.1 million this year, IDC said. Android tablets, meanwhile, are expected to solidify industry control, growing from 154.7 million to 158.1 million units, or from a 67.3 percent share to 67.4 percent.

The tablet market as a whole is predicted to increase from 229.7 million to 234.5 million units. The dark horse is said to be Microsoft -- while just 11.6 million Windows tablets were shipped in 2014, amounting to a 5.1 percent share, those figures are predicted to increase to 16.3 million and 7 percent during 2015.

"Microsoft is doing a lot of good things right now and we believe the launch of Windows 10 later this year will not only have a significant impact on Microsoft's share of the market, but on the industry as a whole," said Jean Philippe Bouchard, IDC's research director for tablets. "There is an appetite for a platform that can provide a productivity experience that remains consistent across multiple form factors and device types, and we believe Microsoft is well positioned to capture some of that demand."

IDC's forecast in fact calls for Windows to take 14.1 percent of the tablet market by 2019, or roughly 38 million units. The iPad is seen shrinking to a 23 percent share, or 61.9 million units. Android is likewise expected to lose out, dipping to 62.9 percent or 169.5 million units. The global market is anticipated to be 269.4 million tablets.

iPad sales have slumped in recent quarters. The exact causes are unknown, but speculation has pointed to a slow upgrade cycle, and the growing prevalence of smartphones that can duplicate tablet functions. Apple's own iPhone 6 Plus has a 5.5-inch screen, for instance, and in some apps offers an iPad-style interface.

A 12.9-inch "iPad Pro" is rumored to be in development, and could potentially reinvigorate sales if the product offers significant advantages over a phone or standard tablets. The device may go into mass production in September.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 35

    What to say about this rubbish?

  • Reply 2 of 35
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member

    Another reason the new MacBook is brilliant. My mom has an iPad mini and LOVES it but she still uses an old clunky Windows machine for email and stuff because typing is easier on it. She would love one of these new MacBooks. And just wait in a couple generations this will become the affordable Mac, the entry point to OS X for a lot of iPad users.

  • Reply 3 of 35

    And we know IDC has a terrible record when it comes to everything Apple.

  • Reply 4 of 35
    quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,741member

    At some point, from 2010 to today, the bulk of the market that was going to get iPads already has one or more. It then becomes a question of how long different segments of this population are willing to wait until they upgrade.

     

    iPad sales will *naturally* level off. No one can expect iPad sales to follow the same course as iPhone sales. iPads are treated more like computers or devices that are complementary to computers. They aren't "priority" devices like smartphones (in terms of the bulk of the market - I'm not including certain industries that may or may not treat iPads and whatever software as mission-critical), and the pace of change is different. It's a totally different upgrade cycle. 

     

    I've still got my iPad 2. Bought summer of 2011. Its only recently that I've started thinking about an upgrade. It's great. I love it. Especially handy on the road. But it's been "good enough" in terms of power and features for all this time. 

     

    I couldn't, however, imagine hanging on to the same smartphone for all that time. The reasons are (by now) understood intuitively. 

  • Reply 5 of 35
    kpluckkpluck Posts: 500member

    Right now Apple is selling 5 different iPad models, (2) iPads and (3) iPad Minis not including wifi/cell variants. And apparently, another model will be coming.

     

    They need to thin out their product matrix a bit. Also, get a little more competitive with storage. Make the base high end models with 64GB of storage (iPad Air 2), base low end models would be okay with 32GB.

     

    All models should have touch ID and full ApplePay compatibility just like the iPhone 6/6+ regardless if Apple thinks people don't want to pull out their tablet to make a payment.

     

    Finally, whatever iPad a person buys, it should come with enough free space in iCloud to back up the entire device.

     

    Apple is an incredibly well run company but I think their focus on margins and profits has lead them down the wrong path.

     

    -kpluck

  • Reply 6 of 35
    Despite all the article this site has run about Apple's market share vs. profit share, they just don't seem to get the message. At the end of the year the market share may, in fact, be 25%. But the profit share will be closer to 70%, while Samsung will still be literally giving away free tablets to get you to buy their phones, as they are right now. No one is making real money in the tablet market except Apple. And as we have found out long ago, IDC counts Toys R Us children's tablets and the $10 disposables in the mix of share of market.
  • Reply 7 of 35
    robin huberrobin huber Posts: 3,202member
    When will the fact that people upgrade tablets less frequently than phones cease becoming big news to analysts? One word: subsidy.
  • Reply 8 of 35
    kpluck wrote: »
    Right now Apple is selling 5 different iPad models, (2) iPads and (3) iPad Minis not including wifi/cell variants. And apparently, another model will be coming.

    They need to thin out their product matrix a bit. Also, get a little more competitive with storage. Make the base high end models with 64GB of storage (iPad Air 2), base low end models would be okay with 32GB.

    All models should have touch ID and full ApplePay compatibility just like the iPhone 6/6+ regardless if Apple thinks people don't want to pull out their tablet to make a payment.

    Finally, whatever iPad a person buys, it should come with enough free space in iCloud to back up the entire device.

    Apple is an incredibly well run company but I think their focus on margins and profits has lead them down the wrong path.

    -kpluck

    Well said.

    You reflect my sentiments. The iPad is superb, but the product line is too unfocused. They should have just one iPad mini and one iPad Air 2 with different storage options. This year, I would like to see them all doubled to 64, 128 and 256.
  • Reply 9 of 35
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,568member
    Of course Apple's market share keeps decreasing, "research" firms keep magically finding millions of "other" tablets and redefining the category to benefit its clients.
  • Reply 10 of 35
    "There is an appetite for a platform that can provide a productivity experience that remains consistent across multiple form factors and device types, and we believe Microsoft is well positioned to capture some of that demand."

    That made me smile... it took them long enough to catch on to an idea that Apple have been executing beautifully for years.
  • Reply 11 of 35
    Apple sold 21 million iPads last quarter... which is down from a year ago.

    But with people saying they are keeping their existing iPads for many years... would that mean the majority of those 21 million iPads were sold to [I]new[/I] users? That's still pretty good, right?

    It's true that iPads last a loooong time. So even if you [I]do[/I] upgrade you'll likely hand your old iPad down to another family member and keep it in service.

    In short... the number of iPads [I]in use[/I] keep growing... which means developers have a larger audience to sell apps to.

    Even if Apple sold ZERO iPads in a quarter... there are still a couple hundred million of them in use.

    While I'd love to see iPad sales grow forever... I know that's impossible.

    But 60 million iPads in 2015 is still pretty amazing for what some people believe is an "expensive" and "non-essential" device.
  • Reply 12 of 35
    dewmedewme Posts: 1,787member
    [quote name="kpluck"
    Apple is an incredibly well run company but I think their focus on margins and profits has lead them down the wrong path.
    -kpluck
    [/quote]

    I'm speechless.

    Be careful not to step too close to the edge of the earth.
  • Reply 13 of 35
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,965member
    jungmark wrote: »
    Of course Apple's market share keeps decreasing, "research" firms keep magically finding millions of "other" tablets and redefining the category to benefit its clients.

    Except this time there's a noticeable sales decrease.
  • Reply 14 of 35
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 4,294member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by kpluck View Post

     

    Right now Apple is selling 5 different iPad models, (2) iPads and (3) iPad Minis not including wifi/cell variants. And apparently, another model will be coming.

     

    They need to thin out their product matrix a bit. Also, get a little more competitive with storage. Make the base high end models with 64GB of storage (iPad Air 2), base low end models would be okay with 32GB.

     

    All models should have touch ID and full ApplePay compatibility just like the iPhone 6/6+ regardless if Apple thinks people don't want to pull out their tablet to make a payment.

     

    Finally, whatever iPad a person buys, it should come with enough free space in iCloud to back up the entire device.

     

    Apple is an incredibly well run company but I think their focus on margins and profits has lead them down the wrong path.

     

    -kpluck




    It just cracks me up when people think they know how to better run Apple, than Tim Cook.  Untold gazillion of dollars in profit per quarter, yet they feel that's not the metrics of a good company.

  • Reply 15 of 35
    mr omr o Posts: 1,046member

    A 12 inch iPad with optional stylus is certainly going to appeal to creatives.

     

    It will offer them more value than the stunning new Macbook (which is more aimed towards programmers and business folks).

     

    Another thing they need is apps that take advantage of the bigger screen estate. Adobe is already doing amazing things for the iPad. I hope Apple takes notice ...

  • Reply 16 of 35
    sog35 wrote: »
    Looks like Microsoft paid IDC a nice fat check last month.  Not so much for Google and Samsung.

    If Microsoft pays IDC to fudge the numbers... KNOWING they are false... what exactly is Microsoft getting out of that?

    What if EVERYBODY paid to get their numbers up? Wouldn't that devalue the entire report?

    I don't understand what analysts like IDC are supposed to do.
  • Reply 17 of 35
    sog35 wrote: »
    these 'reports' by IDC makes its rounds in the media.  Just look at Forbes, WSJ, ect and they will reference these IDC stats.

    FYI, Apple does not pay a cent to IDC.

    Apple doesn't have to pay... they actually report their numbers! :)

    We wouldn't need "analysts" if companies weren't so secretive. I never understood that anyway. You've got a company who sells products... but they won't say how many product they sell.
  • Reply 18 of 35
    mr omr o Posts: 1,046member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    So give consumers less choices is your solution?  LOL.




    It is what Apple has been known for: "Do only a few things & Do them very well".

     

    Focus goes a long way.

  • Reply 19 of 35
    icoco3icoco3 Posts: 1,454member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mr O View Post

     

    A 12 inch iPad with optional stylus is certainly going to appeal to creatives.

     

    It will offer them more value than the stunning new Macbook (which is more aimed towards programmers and business folks).

     

    Another thing they need is apps that take advantage of the bigger screen estate. Adobe is already doing amazing things for the iPad. I hope Apple takes notice ...


     

    But consider, I didn't see any leaks about the new MacBook.  Could be that the new MacBook is the product people mistook for a new iPad coming based on seeing screens in the supply channel.  Just my thoughts on the matter.

  • Reply 20 of 35
    mr omr o Posts: 1,046member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    So why were they so successful selling the 5C, 5S, 6, and 6+ this holiday season?  

     

    Would not FOCUS mean just 1 phone with 1 screen size instead of 3 screen sizes and 4 models?




    Such is the Curious Case of Apple ...

     

    I disagree with the author of the article as the ? watch is actually also subtracting something, the iPhone. This is why Apple is having such a hard time communicating the watch as it will make the iPhone less prominent. It's like admitting that the iPhone can be some kind of annoyance.



    I still believe Apple should make the iPhone smaller - something inbetween 3.5 and 4 inch - if they want to make the iPad popular again. "Continuity" will transform your iPad (mini) into a bigger screen iPhone. You just keep your iPhone mini in the bag.



    If Apple is serious about the iPad and Continuity, then they should ditch their iPhone 6+ aka the iPad killer.

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