Apple would love to sell 31 million in 12 months, even 5 million in the quarter seems optimistic. I bet there is some supply manipulation going on to juice their marketing efforts, but I think 5-7 million units sold by the end of the year is realistic. Price aside, committing to wearing a device that promises to be far more invasive than a phone in your pocket is a tough pill to swallow. Wonder how many people will buy the watch, wear it for a time, and decide its just overkill.
Why can't people just accept the fact that Apple products are in huge demand and they are waiting to get an idea of which product combinations are most popular before ramping up production. Every time Apple releases a product, demand always outstrips supply at first. With their mindshare, Apple does not need to resort to such tired marketing tactics, yet people still cling to this tired conspiracy theory.
Do you honestly think Apple hasn't thought of that already?
Of course I know that Apple is constantly working to manage supply vs demand. I'm just saying that there seems to be more issues of their not keeping up with short-term demand, which should be triggering some action points on their part, in an effort to get on top of high launch quantities. I'm guessing that those people who are seeing July ship dates will likely see shortened timeframes as Apple opens the tap, much like what happened with the iP6 and 6+.
All Samsung will have to do to make an AppleWatch killer is copy it as close as possible, give it a slightly longer battery life and sell it for less money. The news media will eat it up and claim Samsung's smartwatch is much better and Apple is in trouble. They always say that type of BS by only looking at the specs and nothing else. Most of Apple's retail system is now geared for selling AppleWatches. Samsung has nothing like that. It is guaranteed the anti-Apple news media will be pushing a whole lot of AppleWatch killers for the rest of this year. However, I don't see any other company profiting from selling smartwatches. Apple will own the highest profit margins and possibly the highest single company smartwatch market share. That will be very difficult task for Android Wear devices to overcome. If Apple continues to push hard in retail and improve upon AppleWatch the rest of the smartwatch companies might as well just give up.
Pebble will probably go the cheap route $99-$199 and drop the steel.
Of course that is the likely scenario. Their watches do what clearly a decent number of people want them to do (and nothing more), which is why they'll keep going even with the Apple Watch on the market. I'm still not sold on the Watch as something I'd want / use and I'm guessing I'm not alone in my questions about whether there is enough function to give up wearing my Seiko Automatic.
In fact, the thing I'm really wanting is to get my late grandfathers 1932 Elgin pocket watch working. It needs a new main spring installed. The watch isn't stainless steel, doesn't have a sapphire (or even scratch free) crystal and needs to be wound every ~24 hours, but looking at the movement and knowing the history of this particular watch and that of the factory that made it, it's something that the Watch will never compete with.
Why can't people just accept the fact that Apple products are in huge demand and they are waiting to get an idea of which product combinations are most popular before ramping up production. Every time Apple releases a product, demand always outstrips supply at first. With their mindshare, Apple does not need to resort to such tired marketing tactics, yet people still cling to this tired conspiracy theory.
Exactly - that's one of their main drivers behind preorders. Apple will have no trouble selling every watch they make I'm sure. I'm a bit doubtful of a 31M number, but I have no doubt that they'll sell 5M+ in the next quarter. Now that they have a good idea of demand, they'll be able to ramp up production accordingly.
What exactly does Apple mean when it says that the Apple Watch is "Available 24.04.15"? If customers had not been following the advice on Appleinsider or did not know about what has happened on the pre-ordering, would they not expect to walk into an Apple store on the 24 April to purchase a watch on the same day? Surely available means "it is here now", not " you can look at a display model but you can't walk away with a watch today because there are none available for at least (my guess) 2 - 4 months."
One thing that I noticed during my Apple store watch try on was that there was no attempt to distinguish between the aluminium and steel models nor was there any reason given for paying extra for the steel watch. Strange that.
Bad news for Google: Apple has managed to sell more Apple Watches in a single day than the number of Android Wear smartwatches sold in an entire year, if market research from Slice Intelligence is to
Instead of opening more factories to ensure launch product availability, Apple could delay launch dates until more product is on-hand. It's a challenge for sure - It's always better to have less quantity than demand (to a point), compared to too much product and not enough demand.
Do you honestly think Apple hasn't thought of that already?
There's virtually nothing any of us could say that "Apple hasn't thought of". But just because they thought of it, doesn't mean they made the right decision. Look at the original iPhone -- they had thought of opening it up to developers to create apps for it, but Jobs refused to allow it for whatever reason. They realized their mistake and quickly turned it around.
I understand logistically why they wouldn't want to stockpile inventory when they don't have to. And I think Apple is secure enough that even with a huge product launch of an untried device, that they know they will sell millions of them immediately. So making a customer wait doesn't necessarily make them change their mind in Apple's case. They'll eagerly wait and be happy when it arrives.
What I do wonder is why they didn't push the launch one week, which would have given customers a chance to visit the Apple Store before they pre-ordered and given Apple some extra time to produce more watches if the problem was due to production problems. Nothing would have changed, people would still get their watches around the same time, but more people would have been served as more of the actual customers who wanted the watches but didn't want to order something they wear sight unseen.
So maybe Apple did think of that already, and maybe they did have a perfectly valid reason for it, but it doesn't mean it was the correct reason. We're all just guessing.
And I'm curious, why do we think Apple is going to report ?Watch sales in the April 27 earnings call? Doesn't that cover the quarter ending in March? The first credit cards won't be charged until the first watch ships, likely next week. Shouldn't we get the numbers in the July call?
Pebble serves a different niche the Apple Watch (cheaper, better battery life, cross-platform compatibility). I don't understand why the two can't coexist.
would they not expect to walk into an Apple store on the 24 April to purchase a watch on the same day? Surely available means "it is here now", not " you can look at a display model but you can't walk away with a watch today because there are none available for at least (my guess) 2 - 4 months."
Apple has officially said that the watch will not be available for walk-in purchase without a pre-order during the 'initial product launch period'.
The product launch is April 24th, therefore, unless your watch is shipped to the store, you will only be able to pre-order one if you walk into a store on April 24th. How long that 'period' is, is anybody's guess. Maybe two weeks? Maybe a month?
What is unclear to me, is whether Apple's select third party boutique partners will have inventory to sell on the 24th. If I lived close to one of those locations on the 24th, I'd definitely stop in and have a peek to see ...
In combination with my iPhone 6, I think it's going to be a time-saver (as well as a time-teller), not to mention a fashionable conversation piece.
And I suspect anyone with an iPhone 6 Plus is quite ready not to be digging that over-sized iPhone out of their pocket or purse all the time!
Of course, as people point out, this is first generation hardware. It'll get better, smaller, faster, better battery, etc etc in the years ahead. But I believe the Apple Watch is going to be usable and amazing out of the gate, as is, from what I've seen. It's made and designed by humans, so I expect a hiccup or two, but the miracle will still be there. And I'm primed!
Pebble serves a different niche the Apple Watch (cheaper, better battery life, cross-platform compatibility). I don't understand why the two can't coexist.
Apple has officially said that the watch will not be available for walk-in purchase without a pre-order during the 'initial product launch period'.
The product launch is April 24th, therefore, unless your watch is shipped to the store, you will only be able to pre-order one if you walk into a store on April 24th. How long that 'period' is, is anybody's guess. Maybe two weeks? Maybe a month?
What is unclear to me, is whether Apple's select third party boutique partners will have inventory to sell on the 24th. If I lived close to one of those locations on the 24th, I'd definitely stop in and have a peek to see ...
I bet there is some supply manipulation going on to juice their marketing efforts,
no. you dont get it. apple makes its vast, vast fortune by *selling* actual *products* to paying *customers*. they do not earn a profit by intentionally not-selling those products. there is a supply constraint, but its not some hair-brained conspiracy aiming to hype up demand. they already have the best demand on the freaking planet!!! i mean, really.
As much as Apple eclipses most other companies in regards to managing supply chain, they do seem to have hiccups with new product launches. It's understandable when the forecast is blown away by demand, but much like the iPhone 6 and 6+, the Watch not having enough quantity to even keep up with the first few days of pre-orders, tells me Apple is either having issues with yield or they forecast really low given the flops that most other smartwatches have experienced.
were there problems w/ yield of the iPhone 6? 5? etc.. no. they were just more people willing to throw apple money than apple could process at once. good problem to have. great problem to have.
Early adopters are not a measure of a devices success. I would imagine that success would be demonstrated by the end of the year.
The only reason I could see for buying an Apple watch is if it could handle blood sugar monitoring. In general I hate wearing anything on my wrists. As such I won't be a customer anytime soon.
"To the left! More! No, to the right!" moving those goalposts aint easy!
so typical. first the haters say it will flop period, now they saw it will flop later.
Comments
Why can't people just accept the fact that Apple products are in huge demand and they are waiting to get an idea of which product combinations are most popular before ramping up production. Every time Apple releases a product, demand always outstrips supply at first. With their mindshare, Apple does not need to resort to such tired marketing tactics, yet people still cling to this tired conspiracy theory.
Do you honestly think Apple hasn't thought of that already?
Of course I know that Apple is constantly working to manage supply vs demand. I'm just saying that there seems to be more issues of their not keeping up with short-term demand, which should be triggering some action points on their part, in an effort to get on top of high launch quantities. I'm guessing that those people who are seeing July ship dates will likely see shortened timeframes as Apple opens the tap, much like what happened with the iP6 and 6+.
All Samsung will have to do to make an AppleWatch killer is copy it as close as possible, give it a slightly longer battery life and sell it for less money. The news media will eat it up and claim Samsung's smartwatch is much better and Apple is in trouble. They always say that type of BS by only looking at the specs and nothing else. Most of Apple's retail system is now geared for selling AppleWatches. Samsung has nothing like that. It is guaranteed the anti-Apple news media will be pushing a whole lot of AppleWatch killers for the rest of this year. However, I don't see any other company profiting from selling smartwatches. Apple will own the highest profit margins and possibly the highest single company smartwatch market share. That will be very difficult task for Android Wear devices to overcome. If Apple continues to push hard in retail and improve upon AppleWatch the rest of the smartwatch companies might as well just give up.
Pebble will probably go the cheap route $99-$199 and drop the steel.
Of course that is the likely scenario. Their watches do what clearly a decent number of people want them to do (and nothing more), which is why they'll keep going even with the Apple Watch on the market. I'm still not sold on the Watch as something I'd want / use and I'm guessing I'm not alone in my questions about whether there is enough function to give up wearing my Seiko Automatic.
In fact, the thing I'm really wanting is to get my late grandfathers 1932 Elgin pocket watch working. It needs a new main spring installed. The watch isn't stainless steel, doesn't have a sapphire (or even scratch free) crystal and needs to be wound every ~24 hours, but looking at the movement and knowing the history of this particular watch and that of the factory that made it, it's something that the Watch will never compete with.
Why can't people just accept the fact that Apple products are in huge demand and they are waiting to get an idea of which product combinations are most popular before ramping up production. Every time Apple releases a product, demand always outstrips supply at first. With their mindshare, Apple does not need to resort to such tired marketing tactics, yet people still cling to this tired conspiracy theory.
Exactly - that's one of their main drivers behind preorders. Apple will have no trouble selling every watch they make I'm sure. I'm a bit doubtful of a 31M number, but I have no doubt that they'll sell 5M+ in the next quarter. Now that they have a good idea of demand, they'll be able to ramp up production accordingly.
Pebble will probably go the cheap route $99-$199 and drop the steel.
Who cares about Pebbe? Apple watch makes Pebble look like a welfare case.
I love Apple products, but still, I don't understand their price scheme sometimes. Can any of you give me plausible explanation on this:
What exactly does Apple mean when it says that the Apple Watch is "Available 24.04.15"? If customers had not been following the advice on Appleinsider or did not know about what has happened on the pre-ordering, would they not expect to walk into an Apple store on the 24 April to purchase a watch on the same day? Surely available means "it is here now", not " you can look at a display model but you can't walk away with a watch today because there are none available for at least (my guess) 2 - 4 months."
One thing that I noticed during my Apple store watch try on was that there was no attempt to distinguish between the aluminium and steel models nor was there any reason given for paying extra for the steel watch. Strange that.
http://www.businessinsider.com/android-wear-apple-watch-google-advantage-developers-2015-4?utm_content=bufferba6d6&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Instead of opening more factories to ensure launch product availability, Apple could delay launch dates until more product is on-hand. It's a challenge for sure - It's always better to have less quantity than demand (to a point), compared to too much product and not enough demand.
Do you honestly think Apple hasn't thought of that already?
There's virtually nothing any of us could say that "Apple hasn't thought of". But just because they thought of it, doesn't mean they made the right decision. Look at the original iPhone -- they had thought of opening it up to developers to create apps for it, but Jobs refused to allow it for whatever reason. They realized their mistake and quickly turned it around.
I understand logistically why they wouldn't want to stockpile inventory when they don't have to. And I think Apple is secure enough that even with a huge product launch of an untried device, that they know they will sell millions of them immediately. So making a customer wait doesn't necessarily make them change their mind in Apple's case. They'll eagerly wait and be happy when it arrives.
What I do wonder is why they didn't push the launch one week, which would have given customers a chance to visit the Apple Store before they pre-ordered and given Apple some extra time to produce more watches if the problem was due to production problems. Nothing would have changed, people would still get their watches around the same time, but more people would have been served as more of the actual customers who wanted the watches but didn't want to order something they wear sight unseen.
So maybe Apple did think of that already, and maybe they did have a perfectly valid reason for it, but it doesn't mean it was the correct reason. We're all just guessing.
And I'm curious, why do we think Apple is going to report ?Watch sales in the April 27 earnings call? Doesn't that cover the quarter ending in March? The first credit cards won't be charged until the first watch ships, likely next week. Shouldn't we get the numbers in the July call?
would they not expect to walk into an Apple store on the 24 April to purchase a watch on the same day? Surely available means "it is here now", not " you can look at a display model but you can't walk away with a watch today because there are none available for at least (my guess) 2 - 4 months."
Apple has officially said that the watch will not be available for walk-in purchase without a pre-order during the 'initial product launch period'.
The product launch is April 24th, therefore, unless your watch is shipped to the store, you will only be able to pre-order one if you walk into a store on April 24th. How long that 'period' is, is anybody's guess. Maybe two weeks? Maybe a month?
What is unclear to me, is whether Apple's select third party boutique partners will have inventory to sell on the 24th. If I lived close to one of those locations on the 24th, I'd definitely stop in and have a peek to see ...
In combination with my iPhone 6, I think it's going to be a time-saver (as well as a time-teller), not to mention a fashionable conversation piece.
And I suspect anyone with an iPhone 6 Plus is quite ready not to be digging that over-sized iPhone out of their pocket or purse all the time!
Of course, as people point out, this is first generation hardware. It'll get better, smaller, faster, better battery, etc etc in the years ahead. But I believe the Apple Watch is going to be usable and amazing out of the gate, as is, from what I've seen. It's made and designed by humans, so I expect a hiccup or two, but the miracle will still be there. And I'm primed!
Pebble serves a different niche the Apple Watch (cheaper, better battery life, cross-platform compatibility). I don't understand why the two can't coexist.
Do you wear 2 watches at once?
Apple has officially said that the watch will not be available for walk-in purchase without a pre-order during the 'initial product launch period'.
The product launch is April 24th, therefore, unless your watch is shipped to the store, you will only be able to pre-order one if you walk into a store on April 24th. How long that 'period' is, is anybody's guess. Maybe two weeks? Maybe a month?
What is unclear to me, is whether Apple's select third party boutique partners will have inventory to sell on the 24th. If I lived close to one of those locations on the 24th, I'd definitely stop in and have a peek to see ...
Apple tried to avoid Chinese Scalpers /s.
Apple tried to avoid Chinese Scalpers /s.
...and kneecappers.
no. you dont get it. apple makes its vast, vast fortune by *selling* actual *products* to paying *customers*. they do not earn a profit by intentionally not-selling those products. there is a supply constraint, but its not some hair-brained conspiracy aiming to hype up demand. they already have the best demand on the freaking planet!!! i mean, really.
were there problems w/ yield of the iPhone 6? 5? etc.. no. they were just more people willing to throw apple money than apple could process at once. good problem to have. great problem to have.
"To the left! More! No, to the right!" moving those goalposts aint easy!
so typical. first the haters say it will flop period, now they saw it will flop later.