Questionable report claims Apple Watch sales plummet from 200K units per day to less than 20K in US

Posted:
in Apple Watch edited July 2015
According to research firm Slice Intelligence, which has been closely following Apple Watch performance since the device launched in April, sales averages are taking a nose dive in the U.S. as availability increases, but the firm offers little data to support the provided numbers.




Slice's report, picked up by MarketWatch on Tuesday, shows domestic Apple Watch sales have declined 90 percent since device preorders went live on April 10. As with its last study on Apple Watch sales, however, Slice based its findings on "millions" of digital receipts sent out to customers via email, a metric that fails to account for demographic spread, sample viability and other factors that would yield accurate figures.

Specifically, Watch sales supposedly dropped to fewer than 20,000 units per day in June, with sluggish days returning numbers below 10,000 units. The statistics are a far cry from early April when Slice said nearly one million customers preordered Watch on its first day of availability. That number turned into 1.5 million units for launch week or 200,000 sales per day on a seven-day moving average, the firm's most recent report said.

On a per-model basis, the entry-level Apple Watch Sport is said to account for some two-thirds of all Watch sales, roughly equivalent to the 62-percent share Slice quoted in April. Stainless steel Apple Watch versions came in second, while Apple sold less than 2,000 Apple Watch Edition versions in the U.S., Slice said. While model spread mirrors findings from industry analysts like Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty, the downward trend in demand does not.

Well-connected KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who is somewhat more conservative in his Watch forecast, expects sales to remain under 15 million through September, a goal unattainable by Slice's metrics unless international markets grossly outperform.

Apple Watch seemingly started out strong in April as initial supplies were quickly exhausted within minutes of preorders going live, pushing back shipping dates by months. Even today, certain Space Black stainless steel models are showing ship-by dates quoted up to two weeks out. Without insight into Apple's watch production capabilities, however, stock on hand is a poor indicator of actual sales performance.

Apple has yet to provide data on Watch sales, and it is unknown if the company plans to reveal details during its upcoming quarterly conference call later this month. Unless CEO Tim Cook or CFO Luca Maestri break out details from Apple's quarterly report, Apple Watch numbers will be lumped in with iPod, Apple TV and accessories in an accounting category designated "other."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 120
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,173member
    'Context?' What context? Some unknown company made up a graph and posted it on the Internet to get their fifteen minutes of fame, that's all.

    By the moron, for the moron.
  • Reply 2 of 120
    drunkzombiedrunkzombie Posts: 169member
    My comment on a previous topic should be here, Marketwatch is so anti-Apple is not even funny
  • Reply 3 of 120
    satchmosatchmo Posts: 2,699member

    Slice was questionable before when they reported Apple watch sales. Why would it be any different now.

    I suppose it's worth a few page click though, huh?

  • Reply 4 of 120
    drunkzombiedrunkzombie Posts: 169member

    Also, I believe that what happens with SAmsung and the rest of the Android gang, where they don't report how many units they sell and then the tech sites and research firms just run all their numbers on fake estimates, is going to happen with the Apple watch, but backwards, in this case they'll just make up horrible numbers.

  • Reply 5 of 120
    I would not be surprised by this report when to my humble opinion, this was the most ridiculous launch ever. Make a reservation / appointment to see a watch. They still show on the web site that you have to make an appointment to buy the watch; a joke. You don't make an appointment to buy your Rolex or Patek Philippe and there are more luxurious and as desirable as an apple watch. If this is what Angela Ahrendts and her 73 million $ welcome bonus brings as genius marketing ideas, she needs to go back to Burberry.
  • Reply 6 of 120
    anderkhanderkh Posts: 23member
    Does anyone know how they're gaining access to all these email receipts?
  • Reply 7 of 120
    dreyfus2dreyfus2 Posts: 1,072member
    "Without insight into Apple's watch production capabilities, however, stock on hand is a poor indicator of actual sales performance."

    True, but I guess it is safe to assume that Apple would not actually reduce production before the product has been rolled out to all countries and there is some stuff in the channel; both not being the case? Most 42 mm models still ship within 5 - 7 days (except for black steel and gold ones, which need a bit longer) and our local Apple Store runs out of pickup reservations every day.

    If anything, production output is higher now and there is still no channel fill. Add to that the rollout to additional countries, US numbers might indeed be lower now (which would be normal, as there was a lot of initial demand from people waiting since ages), but the decline can't be anywhere that severe.
  • Reply 8 of 120
    konqerrorkonqerror Posts: 685member

    Their data seemed valid before and probably is now. The intentional oversight by the "journalists" is in store sales. No reason to order online when for the same price you can try it on and get instant gratification.

     

    The way they get the data probably is skewed towards early-adopter too, but that can be compensated out if they're competent in statistical methods.

  • Reply 9 of 120
    dreyfus2dreyfus2 Posts: 1,072member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anderkh View Post



    Does anyone know how they're gaining access to all these email receipts?



    Dear Customer,

     

    Unfortunately we have misplaced our own copy of your Apple Watch receipt. In order to guarantee no problems in case of future warranty issues, we kindly request you to email your copy back to tim.cook@appleslice.com.

     

    Best,

    Tim

  • Reply 10 of 120
    jason98jason98 Posts: 766member
    5k watch purchases a day compared to about 500k+ for iPhone. Someone needed data to back 1% apple user base interest in watch.

    http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/186273/html-parsing-quirk-allows-hidden-email-content-viewable-only-on-apple-watch#post_2723682
  • Reply 11 of 120
    anderkhanderkh Posts: 23member



    Hilarious!  I wonder who actually falls for that...

  • Reply 12 of 120
    gtbuzzgtbuzz Posts: 129member
    I am sure their numbers are as accurate as the estimate of the number of bags of boiled peanuts sold at roadside stands. I don't pay attention to Slice, Market Watch or Business Insider's articles any longer - they are bogus and made up. Have you ever seen a writer (aka Analyst) retract his estimates that were wrong ? I have not.
  • Reply 13 of 120
    jccjcc Posts: 287member
    Seriously, anyone that get a chance to visit apple stores can tell you that almost no one visits the watch counters. I work close to the Soho store and every time I walk by the place there's one or no one at the display.
  • Reply 14 of 120
    jmgregory1jmgregory1 Posts: 469member
    My local store, for the couple of times I've been there in the past week, I've only seen 2 people trying on and subsequently purchasing Apple Watches. There were far more people at the iPhone's and MacBook displays, although I'm not sure what that means in the big scheme. The Genius I talked to said he really loves his Watch, even though he wasn't a watch wearer previously. He likes the notifications and found that his iPhone was staying in his pocket far more, and the phone battery was lasting far longer because of it.
  • Reply 15 of 120
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,173member
    A trivia question, sort of unrelated to this dumb story and graph, but related to AppleWatch: is there any other current Apple product (all accessories excluded) that does not feature an Apple logo?
  • Reply 16 of 120
    wakefinancewakefinance Posts: 855member
    'Context?' What context? Some unknown company made up a graph and posted it on the Internet to get their fifteen minutes of fame, that's all.

    By the moron, for the moron.

    It's hilarious that you posted several times after the article on this site where the same research firm was quoted estimating the preorders to be 1M and not once did you claim that their data was moronic clickbait. The closest you came to questioning them in any way was to say that you couldn't care less about who they are. You then went on to say that you believed that their 1M estimate was a likely number.

    Damn are you biased!

    Here's the link to your less disgusted opinion about this company

    http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/185732/launch-day-apple-watch-orders-estimated-at-1m-in-us-skews-toward-sport-model/30
  • Reply 17 of 120
    dewmedewme Posts: 3,526member

    There are plenty of people out there who believe the Apple Watch should do everything the iPhone can do, like make phone calls, send and receive texts, run connected apps, GPS, etc., all by itself and without the partner iPhone nearby. Maybe someday it will be able to serve as an iPhone replacement but I'd claim that such a capability is further away than what people want to believe. Perhaps by then it will be the iWatch.

     

    The reality today is that the Apple Watch is a great watch that happens to provide additional features and functions through iPhone integration. No other traditional dumb watch can match all of the  use cases. If you're hoping the Apple Watch can replace your smartphone you'll be disappointed.

  • Reply 18 of 120
    agramonteagramonte Posts: 345member

    So most people wont buy a square, chunky made in Taiwan "gadget watch" that cost 400 dollars... not surprised. And bet returns are also high.

    Hell the fashion editor at the NY Times already returned hers.

     

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/11/fashion/why-im-breaking-up-with-the-apple-watch.html?_r=0

     

    "But here’s the thing: The watch isn’t actually a fashion accessory for the tech-happy. It’s a tech accessory pretending to be a fashion accessory. I just couldn’t fall for it"

     

    OUCH!

  • Reply 19 of 120
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 8,998member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anderkh View Post

     



    Hilarious!  I wonder who actually falls for that...




    Hand swringers and predictors of doom, that’s who. Oh, and the crowd that firmly believes that if you read it on the Internet it has to be true. There are millions of those types. And then there’s that ‘other’ segment. See the above post from @agramonte.

  • Reply 20 of 120
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,173member
    'Context?' What context? Some unknown company made up a graph and posted it on the Internet to get their fifteen minutes of fame, that's all.

    By the moron, for the moron.

    It's hilarious that you posted several times after the article on this site where the same research firm was quoted estimating the preorders to be 1M and not once did you claim that their data was moronic clickbait. The closest you came to questioning them in any way was to say that you couldn't care less about who they are. You then went on to say that you believed that their 1M estimate was a likely number.

    Damn are you biased!

    Here's the link to your less disgusted opinion about this company

    http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/185732/launch-day-apple-watch-orders-estimated-at-1m-in-us-skews-toward-sport-model/30

    Wow, I have a fan! (Actually, it's kind of creepy, but what the heck, it's par for the course I suppose...)

    Clearly, you're unable read or process much, so for the sake of anyone who might be (remotely) interested, let me repost in whole what wrote there. I said: "You didn't understand my post. I could care less about this firm. I am simply saying that if one million is Apple's 'shipments,' it'll likely be Apple's 'sales.' That said, I am guessing one million is a very likely number for Day 1."

    I was neither expressing disgust at this company nor was I not. I was merely saying that I could care less. I have no clue who they were then, or are now. They were likely doing it for clicks then, as now. Moreover, it was a discussion about 'shipments' versus 'sales' (which I don't expect you to get!). As for my view of "million" then, sorry to disappoint you, but it was simply based on a number of analyst reports that had come out by that point, which estimated Apple's initial sales from the many hundreds of thousands to the many millions (you're welcome to search for those stories, if you wish). It had nothing to do with some silly firm that I'd never heard of or knew existed.

    You just confirmed my assessment of "by the moron, for the moron."

    Add: Oh, I am biased towards Apple? You bet. Thanks for noticing!
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