KGI: iPhone sales forecast at 54M in Q3, Apple Watch demand 'tepid' at 4M shipped units

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  • Reply 21 of 115
    k2director wrote: »
    I sure wish my Apple Watch's "Hey Siri" feature would work more reliably. It works about 70% of the time.

    Also, I'm noticing the watch isn't producing notifications for my text messages consistently. Sometimes it just doesn't give me a notification.

    In other words, Apple's now usual quality control problems are making me feel pretty so-so on my Watch.

    You have say "Hey Siri" right after activating the display. If you say it after a delay, it won't work.

    As for other issues, I've not had any issues with notifications, but I've have weird intermittent issues with maps not working (even though it work perfectly on my iPhone), and watch apps that are "stuck" during updating until I reboot the watch. But these are typical 1.0 software problems. I had the original iPhone and upgraded to every iPhone OS since 1.0, and it's no worse. I think people who say that Apple quality was better before Steve Jobs died is looking at past Apple quality through rose tinted glasses. And really, I'd take this (bugs and all) over the Windows or Android user experience any day.
  • Reply 22 of 115
    bluefire1bluefire1 Posts: 892member

    Every critic expects Apple to sell a buttload of Apple Watches in 2015---and they will! 15,000,000 in sales for a brand new product line that didn't even commence until April is phenomenal. And shipping dates were limited until June--halfway through the year. 

    Imagine if Samsung sold even 1/3 the number of smartwatches that Apple does---it would be labelled the next Apple killer. What a joke.

    It's time for the media to wake up and recognize that the Cook era will be as prosperous and innovative as the Jobs era. 

  • Reply 23 of 115
    hmmhmm Posts: 3,405member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    Google's PE is 33 right now. Gained $60B in market value in one day. And their quarter was nothing to write home about. Last quarter Apple beat on the top and bottom line, beat on EPS, gross margin and guidance and the stock was down 2% the next day. I seriously wonder sometimes why I'm in the stock market.



    You're looking at it right now. Would you touch Google's stock or that of any company the size of Google at a PE of 33? I would have to look up what it has traded at over the longer term, but you may very well see a market correction there.

  • Reply 24 of 115
    entropysentropys Posts: 1,750member
    I find it hard to believe Apple sold 3.9 million in the last three months. It isn't like an iPhone. But if Apple did sell that many, that would be four times the total number of smart watches ever sold prior to the Apple Watch. Hardly what I would call tepid. And to extrapolate to 15 million for a year. There was only about ten million iPhones sold first year, wasn't it?

    I just have trouble believing there are so many people that want one. I might get one one day, but not for the time being. Ballet classes and netball competitions for the little Miss Entropys have higher priority.
  • Reply 25 of 115
    dachardachar Posts: 330member
    So far in the UK I have seen only one other Apple Watch on someone's wrist. If typical then either there is still a huge potential untapped market or it will become a niche product for just the big Apple fans. I think we will need to give it at least another 2 or 3 years before the trend will become clear.
  • Reply 26 of 115
    jameskatt2jameskatt2 Posts: 718member
    Apple Watches have a very long lifetime.

    So 15 million a year of Apple Watches means 45 Million Users in 3 years.

    Over the next 7 years, we will have 105 MILLION Apple Watch users.

    That is a HUGE number.

    What this also means is that those users - who buy more expensive watches - are going to knock out nearly every traditional watch maker - other than the ultra high end watches.
  • Reply 27 of 115
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 12,826member
    frugality wrote: »
    When I got my first clam-shell cell phone, I was more than happy to get rid of my wristwatch.  Haven't worn one since, and every time I try one on, it feels like a strange annoyance on my arm that doesn't belong there.
    This is the big problem with watches, they tend to get in the way!
    First there were clocks, and then someone miniaturized them to the point that they could be carried on your person -- pocket watches.
    Interestingly the pocket watch was a tool that was at one time as important to industry as the iPhone is today. The railroads literally ran their businesses through the use of the watches and well engineered timetables. In fact we have or had the term "railroad time" to indicate how important the watches where and of course the associated time keeping.
     Then someone came up with the idea of affixing them to your wrist.  Now with cell phones in our pockets, there's less of an incentive to have a watch on your wrist, too.  There are times, like in meetings, when it'd be nicer to glance at a watch rather than dig my phone out to see what time it is and whether the meeting was going to end soon.  But generally, I don't miss that thing on my wrist.

    I literally could never get into wearing a watch and further doing so didn't jive with my occupation so I never got into the habit. Given that I might find use for such a device in the future if Apple can integrate blood sugar tracking. Old age does things to you and one of those things requires that you monitor glucose levels. A watch that did that automatically would be something I might find useful.
  • Reply 28 of 115
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 12,826member
    You have say "Hey Siri" right after activating the display. If you say it after a delay, it won't work.

    As for other issues, I've not had any issues with notifications, but I've have weird intermittent issues with maps not working (even though it work perfectly on my iPhone), and watch apps that are "stuck" during updating until I reboot the watch. But these are typical 1.0 software problems. I had the original iPhone and upgraded to every iPhone OS since 1.0, and it's no worse. I think people who say that Apple quality was better before Steve Jobs died is looking at past Apple quality through rose tinted glasses. And really, I'd take this (bugs and all) over the Windows or Android user experience any day.

    I have to agree! Having had iPhone very early in the products life in can recall of several OS releases for iPhone that where absolutely terrible. Worst than my iPad running beta software right now. Sadly it took Apple months to fix up those releases too. So in many ways Apples beta software is better than some of the first software updates to the iPhine operating system.

    I actually think software is better because Steve is gone. You don't have demands being made on people that can't be meant.
  • Reply 29 of 115
    oberpongooberpongo Posts: 134member
    Take it a step further... 15,000,000 x $349 (cheapest model) = $5,235,000,000

    Most companies would wet themselves for achieving greater than $5 Billion in revenue for a new product line in 6 months...
    To put that number into perspective: That's like just creating a Fortune 500 company.
  • Reply 30 of 115
    red oakred oak Posts: 668member
    18M watches a year x $550 ASP x 30% net margin = $3B profit

    That would be 25% of Google yearly profit. For a new product out for 3 months
  • Reply 31 of 115
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    hmm wrote: »

    You're looking at it right now. Would you touch Google's stock or that of any company the size of Google at a PE of 33? I would have to look up what it has traded at over the longer term, but you may very well see a market correction there.

    Well Google just jumped 16% on Friday so I don't expect to see one any time soon.
  • Reply 32 of 115
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 1,928member
    I think that perhaps the best analogy to the Apple Watch among new Apple product in the modern era is the iPod.

    When the iPod came out it was the most expensive portable digital music player you could buy, but also the best. But outside of geek circles, it was not yet clear why anybody needed or should want a portable digital music player. It took several years -- and price cuts -- for the iPod to gain traction. And if I recall correctly, the best it ever did in terms of quarterly sales was something like a little over 20 million. For the apple of that time, 20 million units of anything was massive.

    I think the Apple Watch is broadly similar. I do not believe that it is obvious to normal people that they need or should want a smart watch. I think it is going to take some time for people to learn about what this product is and how it can make their lives better. Advertising certainly helps, but I think that for a product this expensive people are not going to just buy it on impulse. They need to see it in person and they need to see someone they know using it and enjoying it and really benefiting from it. Also, because this does have a fashion component to it, I do not think that online sales are really the best way to gauge his demand. I think that normal people are going to want to buy this in a retail store where they can try it on and then immediately buy it.

    So I am going to guess that it could be a couple of years before we see Apple Watch sales take off, but when they do I think Apple Watch will be a big deal -- maybe not as big a deal as the iPhone, but definitely bigger than the iPod.
  • Reply 33 of 115
    nolamacguynolamacguy Posts: 4,758member
    zroger73 wrote: »
    The Apple Watch is one of the few Apple products I just never could get excited about. I might be more interested if it were less expensive, thinner, and had longer battery life. Perhaps the next generation will grab my attention.

    it's not expensive.

    it's much thinner than you think, and thinner than the watches my friends wear.

    it gets terrific battery life, longer than the device it's an accessory to.
  • Reply 34 of 115
    nolamacguynolamacguy Posts: 4,758member
    frugality wrote: »
    When I got my first clam-shell cell phone, I was more than happy to get rid of my wristwatch.  Haven't worn one since, and every time I try one on, it feels like a strange annoyance on my arm that doesn't belong there.

    First there were clocks, and then someone miniaturized them to the point that they could be carried on your person -- pocket watches.  Then someone came up with the idea of affixing them to your wrist.  Now with cell phones in our pockets, there's less of an incentive to have a watch on your wrist, too.  There are times, like in meetings, when it'd be nicer to glance at a watch rather than dig my phone out to see what time it is and whether the meeting was going to end soon.  But generally, I don't miss that thing on my wrist.

    I feel the same way -- about watches. but the AW isn't just a watch and doesn't just tell time. for me it's an activity tracker first, like the ones my friends wear on their wrists. it helps me get more activity during my day and be less sedentary as I work.
  • Reply 35 of 115
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,520member
    Please stop referring to Ming as "Well Connected". This guy throws darts at a wall and comes up with his "Estimates" which are more often incorrect than correct, especially when it comes to release dates.

    Kreskin or Chris Angel have better and more accurate track records.


    AFAIK, he is "well connected" ...

    Dem bones, dem bones, dem dry bones,
    Dem bones, dem bones, dem dry bones,
    Dem bones, dem bones, dem dry bones,
    Now shake dem skeleton bones!

    The toe bone's connected to the foot bone,
    The foot bone's connected to the ankle bone,
    The ankle bone's connected to the leg bone,
    Now shake dem skeleton bones!

    The leg bone's connected to the knee bone,
    The knee bone's connected to the thigh bone,
    The thigh bone's connected to the hip bone,
    Now shake dem skeleton bones!

    Dem bones, dem bones, dem dry bones,
    Dem bones, dem bones, dem dry bones,
    Dem bones, dem bones, dem dry bones,
    Now shake dem skeleton bones!

    The hip bone's connected to the back bone
    The back bone's connected to the neck bone,
    The neck bone's connected to the head bone,
    Now shake dem skeleton bones!

    The finger bone's connected to the hand bone,
    The hand bone's connected to the arm bone,
    The arm bone's connected to the shoulder bone,
    Now shake dem skeleton bones!

    Dem bones, dem bones gonna walk around
    Dem bones, dem bones, gonna walk around
    Dem bones, dem bones, gonna walk around
    Now shake dem skeleton bones!
  • Reply 36 of 115
    richlrichl Posts: 2,213member

    To put things into perspective, the 1st generation iPhone sold 6.1 million units total. I doubt we'll see a trajectory like the iPhone's but 5 million units in a year would be good going for the 1st generation Apple Watch.

  • Reply 37 of 115
    slprescottslprescott Posts: 752member
    ... I've have weird intermittent issues with maps not working (even though it work perfectly on my iPhone).

    Has anyone here used Apple Watch Maps for WALKING directions/tracking?

    In the car, Watch Maps works well for me, but when WALKING it doesn't see that I'm on the route. I've tried this in the city and suburbs, with identical (bad) behavior. Frustrating, since I like the Watch and Maps in general.
  • Reply 38 of 115
    quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,744member
    4 million = "tepid."

    Alright, but it also = ownership of virtually the entire smartwatch market overnight.

    So is it an Apple issue or a market issue?

    Or is there really no issue at all, and 4 million in barely as many months is actually damn impressive, not to mention setting records in sales and demand for ANY wearable.

    Today's word is PERSPECTIVE.

    Let's also make sure it's the *right* one.
  • Reply 39 of 115
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,093moderator
    frugality wrote: »
    When I got my first clam-shell cell phone, I was more than happy to get rid of my wristwatch.  Haven't worn one since, and every time I try one on, it feels like a strange annoyance on my arm that doesn't belong there.

    First there were clocks, and then someone miniaturized them to the point that they could be carried on your person -- pocket watches.  Then someone came up with the idea of affixing them to your wrist.  Now with cell phones in our pockets, there's less of an incentive to have a watch on your wrist, too.  There are times, like in meetings, when it'd be nicer to glance at a watch rather than dig my phone out to see what time it is and whether the meeting was going to end soon.  But generally, I don't miss that thing on my wrist.

    Your own words argue for the success of a wrist-worn computing device. First there were computers that filled a room (analogous to tne town clock tower), then personal PCs (analogous to the home clock), then portable PCs, smartphones and tablets (analogous to the pocket watch) and now we're affixing them to our wrist. Duh!
  • Reply 40 of 115
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 19,223member
    hmm wrote: »
    rogifan wrote: »
    Google's PE is 33 right now. Gained $60B in market value in one day. And their quarter was nothing to write home about. Last quarter Apple beat on the top and bottom line, beat on EPS, gross margin and guidance and the stock was down 2% the next day. I seriously wonder sometimes why I'm in the stock market.


    You're looking at it right now. Would you touch Google's stock or that of any company the size of Google at a PE of 33? I would have to look up what it has traded at over the longer term, but you may very well see a market correction there.

    Looking forward to buying some GOOG puts tomorrow morning. Seriously. :smokey:

    Hope the stock price doesn't go down too much before open.
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