KGI: iPhone sales forecast at 54M in Q3, Apple Watch demand 'tepid' at 4M shipped units

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  • Reply 81 of 115
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 19,223member
    gatorguy wrote: »
    The CFO article is plainly dumb. It says, for instance, "In theory, a successful launch — and its attendant revenue — would drive up Apple’s earnings, and possibly stock price, in the same quarter the product is introduced, according to several news reports that came out earlier this week."

    It assumes that investors can't add or subtract. Give me a break.

    The FASB links are fine. They say nothing about 'lobbying.'

    You can keep proving all the links you want, but there is no 'lobbying' here. Period. See my response to tmay above.
    Isn't lobbying an effort to make sure your companies/organizations interests are considered and understood with regard to potential rule-making and laws? Yes sir those letters are absolutely examples of lobbying IMHO. How do you define lobbying?

    For fcuk's sake, move along. Sir.

    Or look up a dictionary. Here, let me help: http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/lobby
  • Reply 82 of 115
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,764member
    For fcuk's sake, move along. Sir.

    Or look up a dictionary. Here, let me help: http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/lobby
    OK. From your link, which I assume you may not have bothered to read:

    Full Definition of LOBBY

    intransitive verb
    : to conduct activities aimed at influencing public officials and especially members of a legislative body on legislation
    transitive verb
    1
    : to promote (as a project) or secure the passage of (as legislation) by influencing public officials
    2
    : to attempt to influence or sway (as a public official) toward a desired action

    ...and that sir is exactly what Apple hoped to gain from it's letters to the FASB. That you don't like it matters not to the facts. Apple was absolutely lobbying the board to make sure its interests were considered before any new rules were made. I'm surprised you're being so petty about it. There's nothing innately evil about lobbying.
  • Reply 83 of 115
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,819member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post





    OK. From your link, which I assume you may not have bothered to read:



    Full Definition of LOBBY



    intransitive verb

    : to conduct activities aimed at influencing public officials and especially members of a legislative body on legislation

    transitive verb

    1

    : to promote (as a project) or secure the passage of (as legislation) by influencing public officials

    2

    : to attempt to influence or sway (as a public official) toward a desired action



    ...and that sir is exactly what Apple hoped to gain from it's letters to the FASB. That you don't like it matters not to the facts. Apple was absolutely lobbying the board to make sure its interests were considered before any new rules were made. I'm surprised you're being so petty about it.

    I agree with you, and its implied that Apple wasn't the only party lobbying.

     

    It's not like Apple, et al, was providing 3 days in Vegas with all the amenities, including showgirls (watch Martin Scorcese's "Casino" if you want examples of old school lobbying).

  • Reply 84 of 115
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,764member
    tmay wrote: »
    I agree with you, and its implied that Apple wasn't the only party lobbying.

    It's not like Apple, et al, was providing 3 days in Vegas with all the amenities, including showgirls (watch Martin Scorcese's "Casino" if you want examples of old school lobbying).
    The right to lobby government is so important it's enshrined in the Constitution.
    "Congress shall make no law … abridging … the right of the people peaceably … to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."
  • Reply 85 of 115
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,520member
    tmay wrote: »
    I don't mean to single you out, but there is great potential for health and wellness monitoring/prevention with the Apple Watch -- and the Watch Sensors are now open to developers.


    Consider that 30% of the US population has high blood pressure -- ~100 million people.


    Consider that 10% of the US population has diabetes -- ~30 million people.


    These are potential [non-geek, non-fashion] users of the Apple Watch.


    There are already 3rd-party testing/monitoring devices that interface the iPhone
    While I'm writing this, the Haas machining centers in my shop are cranking out parts. Wouldn't it be nice it my watch could track my production and alert me when my parts are ready to change? How about an Industrial kit Apple?

    Are those Haas machines descendants of the Automatic Screw Machines of last century? IDK, but since most CNC machines have programs that control tool changes, processes, etc. -- it would seem relatively easy to add WiFi (if they don't already have it) and send notifications to your Watch via iPhone to monitor progress, record and alert events, etc. So, what you want is certainly doable ... maybe even now, by finessing HomeKit. Though, I do like the concept of Industrial Kit!


    It isn't hard to imagine that a smartwatch could make industrial production much more efficient, but it would also go along way towards monitoring workers in hazardous environments. When I was much younger, I worked summers fighting wildfire. Now its common not only to have repeaters on fires for two way radios, but cell towers placed strategically for larger fires to reduce and maintain the two way radio traffic strictly for critical operations. A watch would go one step further and allow monitoring an individual's life signs for physical stress, and also provide alerts to hazards, especially weather/wind changes that are notable for fireline fatalities. Time is always critical in these situations.

    I agree with you; I don't think the the first generation Watch has come anywhere close to tapping its future potential.

    I hadn't thought about fire fighting ... Nice! Or anywhere (construction, power line repair, windmill maintenance, etc.) where communication, full attention and 2 free hands are necessary ...
  • Reply 86 of 115
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,764member
    tmay wrote: »
    I agree with you, and its implied that Apple wasn't the only party lobbying.
    They weren't the only ones ( but were the only ones who felt it was important to re-address the FASB with a second letter if it means anything). Other hardware companies included Dell, Xerox. Cisco. and HP. there were also accounting firms, a communications company, and on on-line software provider. It goes without saying that not all the commenting parties had the same views.
  • Reply 87 of 115
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,819member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post





    Are those Haas machines descendants of the Automatic Screw Machines of last century? IDK, but since most CNC machines have programs that control tool changes, processes, etc. -- it would seem relatively easy to add WiFi (if they don't already have it) and send notifications to your Watch via iPhone to monitor progress, record and alert events, etc. So, what you want is certainly doable ... maybe even now, by finessing HomeKit. Though, I do like the concept of Industrial Kit!

    I hadn't thought about fire fighting ... Nice! Or anywhere (construction, power line repair, windmill maintenance, etc.) where communication, full attention and 2 free hands are necessary ...

    CNC machines typically integrate Ethernet, but a WiFi adaptor of any kind on the network would give the same result, if the control supported data i/o for such tasks. My machines are pre-ethernet, so I would have to adapt through RS-232, but I doubt that my control would provide any useful data output. I have a friend with a 2015 machine so i should look into it.

     

    The point stands that watches, especially future generations that have high ip ratings, like ip 67, will be standard for workers in harsh environments, and it may be that Google Glass et al, will also be optional fare, but perhaps integrated into face shields or goggles.

  • Reply 88 of 115
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    To change the subject for a minute I just saw one of the new Apple Watch commercials on TV. I must say I think some more fun, upbeat commercials would be better. This one was a bit too serious, like previous iPhone commercials. It's summer Apple, bring out the fun! Leave the serious stuff for the holidays.
  • Reply 89 of 115

    Most of my friends are Apple Fans....not one of them has an Apple Watch. Somehow it just didn't make sense to spend £600 on an iPhone extension. Better to save the cash and buy an Air. 

  • Reply 90 of 115
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,819member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Banyan Bruce View Post

     

    Most of my friends are Apple Fans....not one of them has an Apple Watch. Somehow it just didn't make sense to spend £600 on an iPhone extension. Better to save the cash and buy an Air. 


    Sure, but, that doesn't imply at all that some future Watch won't make sense for you and your friends, and in your case, that may require that the watch have full cellular and GPS capabilities, so in effect, it replaces the iPhone for jobs to be done for some people.

  • Reply 91 of 115
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,819member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post





    Apple was not lobbying. Its called helping the FASB understand the realties of there industry. It happens all the time. You cannot expect the FASB to understand the details about how thousands of different industries are run and how expenes and revenues should recorded. The FASB gets letters from thousands of companies every year to iron out GAAP to reflect the realties of industry. Thats not called lobbying. Thats called due dillegence. I'm a CPA and changes to GAAP are common when past rules were not reflective of the realties of the industry. No one from Apple is wining and dining FASB officials or giving them cash money under the table.

    It's lobbying, just without the full court press that we associate with the negatives of lobbying; Apple isn't writing the rule changes.

  • Reply 92 of 115
    boltsfan17boltsfan17 Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by 9secondko View Post



    The Apple watch is more successful than Xbox one, Wii u, and ps4 combined per quarter and its "tepid?" Lol



    Not to mention dominating its own device category.



    Not bad for a device that isn't a fundamental aspect of daily life like a phone.



    In terms of sales no. PS4 sold over 5.3 million units the first 3 months it went on sale. Combined with Xbox One numbers that's over 9 million. Hard to compare an item that sells for well over $400. Regardless, if the Apple Watch has sold 4 million the first 3 months, I think thats excellent. I'm sure total sales to date of Android watches aren't even close to 4 million. 

  • Reply 93 of 115
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 2,366member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Banyan Bruce View Post

     

    Most of my friends are Apple Fans....not one of them has an Apple Watch. Somehow it just didn't make sense to spend £600 on an iPhone extension. Better to save the cash and buy an Air. 




    Well...I have both. I like my AW, and use it all the time. I actually use it more than my Air. By getting an AW, I was able to skip the iPhone 6 cycle. By sticking with my 5s that I like a lot, AW let me get access to ApplePay, something I would have gone to an iPhone 6 for.

     

    I like the AW, but I freely admit is is not a must have thing for everyone. But then, neither is my air.

     

    I buy products because I have a specific use or perceived need. Your friends might not have one for AW. Yet. 

  • Reply 94 of 115
    "Looking forward, potential Force Touch sensor manufacturing issues could drive quarter-over-quarter shipments down 26-percent to 40.1 million units in the fourth fiscal quarter."

    Last year in Q4 iPhone 6 sales represented 9 days of sales. So, he's suggesting Q4 will have zero growth (there has been no inkling of a demand drop off) and the last 10 days or so when the 6S is introduced demand will drop off a cliff. Sounds like the pre-earnings better get ready to smear Apple routine.
  • Reply 95 of 115
    shenshen Posts: 434member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Banyan Bruce View Post

     

    Most of my friends are Apple Fans....not one of them has an Apple Watch. Somehow it just didn't make sense to spend £600 on an iPhone extension. Better to save the cash and buy an Air. 


     

    Most of my friends are Apple Fans....not one of them has an iPod. Somehow it just didn't make sense to spend £600 on an iTunes extension. Better to save the cash and buy a CD player. -signed 2002

  • Reply 96 of 115
    iedsriiedsri Posts: 26member
    Mr. Campbell's title should not have included the unwarranted judgment that nearly 4 million in sales was deemed "tepid" by anyone.The core of this story is that the Watch has apparently sold in the millions. By any rational standard this constitutes a spectacular success. The news story should therefore have been headlined "Apple Watch sales prove an unprecedented success," or something to that effect. If necessary, mention might have been made (late in the report) that the source of the information considered such sales numbers "tepid;" but as that is plainly incorrect, a responsible journalist should then have added that the source was in error on this point.
  • Reply 97 of 115
    relicrelic Posts: 4,735member
    zroger73 wrote: »
    The Apple Watch is one of the few Apple products I just never could get excited about. I might be more interested if it were less expensive, thinner, and had longer battery life. Perhaps the next generation will grab my attention.

    The Apple Watch is one of those devices that no one actually needs, it's completely a luxury item. Also the first generation isn't something that I would call evolutionary or even ground breaking, it might be better than the Android watches but that's not really saying much. I think these watches need another 2 to 3 years in the oven before their ready. If a smart watch can't get at least 3 days of battery life I just can't be bothered. My kids have them and they do not last a full day, they barely get 8 hours with moderate use and 3 if they constantly use it. Which is fine as its a tiny device, just not useful to a person like me.
  • Reply 98 of 115
    irelandireland Posts: 17,623member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by TheWhiteFalcon View Post

     

    The iPhone demand was tepid initially as well, it takes time for these things to build. The iPad was an anomaly.




    A phone is not a watch. I personally hate having anything on my wrists.

  • Reply 99 of 115
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,819member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Relic View Post





    The Apple Watch is one of those devices that no one actually needs, it's completely a luxury item. Also the first generation isn't something that I would call evolutionary or even ground breaking, it might be better than the Android watches but that's not really saying much. I think these watches need another 2 to 3 years in the oven before their ready. If a smart watch can't get at least 3 days of battery life I just can't be bothered. My kids have them and they do not last a full day, they barely get 8 hours with moderate use and 3 if they constantly use it. Which is fine as its a tiny device, just not useful to a person like me.

    So, do you even read your own writing before posting?

     

    Lately, your writing has become a horrible stew of ideas, without much of a line of thought at all binding those ideas together.

     

    "One of those devices that no one actually needs, it's a complete luxury item" followed by "My kids have them and they do not last a full day" and "barely get 8 hours with moderate use and 3 if they are constantly used".

     

    Presumably, your kids use the Apple Watch for something for a significant part of their day, and these Apple Watches are presumably connected to iPhones for most of that day. Maybe your kids are wasting their time with the Apple watch, but they chose Apple Watch over Android, and while I can't agree with your opinion that "the first generation isn't something that I would call evolutionary or even groundbreaking", you are certainly entitled to that opinion.

     

    Perhaps, with all of the devices that you presumably purchase and use, god knows you've spoken of them enough, you might agree that the Sport Watch at $349 U.S., would not be considered a luxury item at all as much as a frivolous item, based on your own kids' use.

     

    But then, not all purchases are frivolous, are they.

  • Reply 100 of 115
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 19,223member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Relic View Post



    The Apple Watch is one of those devices that no one actually needs, it's completely a luxury item. Also the first generation isn't something that I would call evolutionary or even ground breaking, it might be better than the Android watches but that's not really saying much. I think these watches need another 2 to 3 years in the oven before their ready. If a smart watch can't get at least 3 days of battery life I just can't be bothered. My kids have them and they do not last a full day, they barely get 8 hours with moderate use and 3 if they constantly use it. Which is fine as its a tiny device, just not useful to a person like me.

    Yeah, yeah, yeah. You've been ranting about the Watch since the day it was announced. Surprise us and say something different.

     

    Your kids are getting only 8 hours? Well, all I can say is that Apple must be shipping its quality control reject Watches to Switzerland. You know, to give your national industry a bit of (false) hope....<img class=" src="http://forums-files.appleinsider.com/images/smilies//lol.gif" />

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