KGI: iPhone sales forecast at 54M in Q3, Apple Watch demand 'tepid' at 4M shipped units

1356

Comments

  • Reply 41 of 115
    smalmsmalm Posts: 656member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by RichL View Post

     

    To put things into perspective, the 1st generation iPhone sold 6.1 million units total. 




    To put things into perspective, the 1st generation iPhone was expected to sell 1 million units - and then to die...

  • Reply 42 of 115
    shenshen Posts: 434member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post



    I think that perhaps the best analogy to the Apple Watch among new Apple product in the modern era is the iPod.



    When the iPod came out it was the most expensive portable digital music player you could buy, but also the best. But outside of geek circles, it was not yet clear why anybody needed or should want a portable digital music player. It took several years -- and price cuts -- for the iPod to gain traction. And if I recall correctly, the best it ever did in terms of quarterly sales was something like a little over 20 million. For the apple of that time, 20 million units of anything was massive.



    I think the Apple Watch is broadly similar. I do not believe that it is obvious to normal people that they need or should want a smart watch. I think it is going to take some time for people to learn about what this product is and how it can make their lives better. Advertising certainly helps, but I think that for a product this expensive people are not going to just buy it on impulse. They need to see it in person and they need to see someone they know using it and enjoying it and really benefiting from it. Also, because this does have a fashion component to it, I do not think that online sales are really the best way to gauge his demand. I think that normal people are going to want to buy this in a retail store where they can try it on and then immediately buy it.



    So I am going to guess that it could be a couple of years before we see Apple Watch sales take off, but when they do I think Apple Watch will be a big deal -- maybe not as big a deal as the iPhone, but definitely bigger than the iPod.



    No reply, this just needs to be said again. Well done...

  • Reply 43 of 115
    shenshen Posts: 434member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by NolaMacGuy View Post





    it's not expensive.



    it's much thinner than you think, and thinner than the watches my friends wear.



    it gets terrific battery life, longer than the device it's an accessory to.



    The expense is relative. For what it does, I agree, it isn't at all expensive. Some of the activity trackers that do much, much less are nearly as much money. It has a very high value for what you pay.

     

    Thinner, I notice this all the time. When the first pictures came out I decided not to get one. Too thick! Huge in fact! But it is both thinner and lighter than the watch I used to wear just two years ago before I got out of the watch habit. Not a week goes by I don't look at it and remember that I used to think it was "too thick" and chuckle.

     

    Battery? I have posted before, and will say it again, I typically wear mine from 5:30 or 6:30 AM until 11-12:00 PM and the battery is generally between 20 and 50% (yes some days 50%) when I drop it on the charger at night. I use it to check most notifications, control my phones music, use maps, fitness tracking, and tons of text replies every day. I have to charge my phone at least once in the middle of the day. The watch continues to amaze me on battery life.

  • Reply 44 of 115
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 19,223member
    You have say "Hey Siri" right after activating the display. If you say it after a delay, it won't work.

    Oddly, it appears that you don't have to say Hey Siri when replying to a text (at least, in my case).

    Since I use my Watch for texts a lot, I occasionally forget to say it when asking it a normal Siri-type question.
  • Reply 45 of 115
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 19,223member
    slprescott wrote: »

    Has anyone here used Apple Watch Maps for WALKING directions/tracking?

    In the car, Watch Maps works well for me, but when WALKING it doesn't see that I'm on the route. I've tried this in the city and suburbs, with identical (bad) behavior. Frustrating, since I like the Watch and Maps in general.

    I've used it only a handful of times, when traveling to new cities. It has worked superbly each time.
  • Reply 46 of 115
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 19,223member
    Nice little piece by PED, who shows that the average estimate of Watch sales from 27 analysts is 4.07M: http://fortune.com/2015/07/19/how-many-watches-did-apple-sell-last-quarter-second-pass/
  • Reply 47 of 115
    blazarblazar Posts: 270member
    I probabaly will get ta smartwatch as nanotech "grade" techniques make batteries much more efficient. Also more use cases may develop for the watch as time goes on. I would like a face that can stay on, even if it means daily charging.

    Like others have said, the watch is more of a habit like wearing a belt. It is something else you really must get used to.

    There are plenty of ways to hold up pants (elastic bands etc) but people still use belts. Many around here seem to think we have evolved past watches and dont need to bother. If that is the case, you start using elastic banded pants and shoes with velcro only (since they are more convenient than laces).

    Jewelry in general has no "purpose" whatsoever but there is still a LOT sold. The talk around here that "watches are obsolete" misses the point entirely.
  • Reply 48 of 115
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,520member
    slurpy wrote: »
    How the **** is an expectation of 15,000,000+ of a 1gen product, within 6 months, that REQUIRES an iPhone, "tepid"? **** these analysts without an ounce of context or perspective. If Apple Watch sells anywhere near 15million in 2015, it would have shit on every single 1st gen Apple product, ever, by a massive margin.

    Take it a step further... 15,000,000 x $349 (cheapest model) = $5,235,000,000

    Most companies would wet themselves for achieving greater than $5 Billion in revenue for a new product line in 6 months...

    sog35 wrote: »
    15 million Watch sales in the first 8 months of release will be the fastest Apple product launch ever.

    These analyst are constantly moving the goal post in an attemp to make Apple look bad.

    First they say the Watch wont move the needle since its such a small fraction of total revenue.
    But then when Watch sales isnt as great as they estimated they bash the stock! Now they change the story and say Watch sales are important.

    I bet if Apple announces Watch sales that are higher than these analyst estimates the anals will say Watch sales isnt that important after all.

    Its fricken frustrating when a company like Google announces weak 11% revenue growth and stock explodes 15%. If Apple announces 11% revenue growth the stock would probably tank 20%.

    Wall street bullsiters are constantly giving Google excuses. Blaming foreign exchange rates, allow Google to report non GAAP earnings which dont include billions in stock compensation and billions in write offs from failed acqusitions (motorolla).

    They say Apple does not get the benefit of the doubt because they rely to heavily on iPhone. Yet Google makes 99% of there profits from advertising and thats no problem.

    Apple is showing much higher growth in revenue, profits, and EPS than Google. Yet their PE is half of Google. The Wallstreet bullshiters say its because Apples growth is unsustainable. But what about Google? There Q2 revenue growth went from 22% last year to 11% this year. So you tell me whos grow is not sustainable.


    I think it has something to do with the theory of large numbnuts ...
  • Reply 49 of 115
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by 9secondko View Post



    The Apple watch is more successful than Xbox one, Wii u, and ps4 combined per quarter and its "tepid?" Lol



    Not to mention dominating its own device category.



    Not bad for a device that isn't a fundamental aspect of daily life like a phone.

    We might as well simply face the facts that the people running Wall Street are not much better than criminals.  Netflix is praised because it picked up a few million new subscribers for $8 a month and they're not even locked into contracts while Apple is being criticized for only selling four million AppleWatches for an average cost of $505 per unit.  That's a huge difference in value where Apple comes out much further ahead.  Apple shareholders are seriously getting stiffed by the Wall Street Crooks who make up what's valued and what isn't for their own personal benefit.  Their methods would never work in real life but only exists in their virtual financial world of smoke and mirrors.  Theoretical future money should never be worth more than actual money in pocket.

     

    I'm thinking Apple should create it's own version of Netflix after AppleMusic becomes a steady subscriber force.  Any company with deep pockets could do what Netflix is doing.  Fact is, Popcorn Time suits ME much better than Netflix does and doesn't cost a dime to use.  Any popular or cult movies that come to DVD is always added quickly to Popcorn Time.

  • Reply 50 of 115
    badmonkbadmonk Posts: 798member
    sog35 wrote: »
    15 million Watch sales in the first 8 months of release will be the fastest Apple product launch ever.

    These analyst are constantly moving the goal post in an attemp to make Apple look bad.

    First they say the Watch wont move the needle since its such a small fraction of total revenue.
    But then when Watch sales isnt as great as they estimated they bash the stock! Now they change the story and say Watch sales are important.

    I bet if Apple announces Watch sales that are higher than these analyst estimates the anals will say Watch sales isnt that important after all.

    Its fricken frustrating when a company like Google announces weak 11% revenue growth and stock explodes 15%. If Apple announces 11% revenue growth the stock would probably tank 20%.

    Wall street bullsiters are constantly giving Google excuses. Blaming foreign exchange rates, allow Google to report non GAAP earnings which dont include billions in stock compensation and billions in write offs from failed acqusitions (motorolla).

    They say Apple does not get the benefit of the doubt because they rely to heavily on iPhone. Yet Google makes 99% of there profits from advertising and thats no problem.

    Apple is showing much higher growth in revenue, profits, and EPS than Google. Yet their PE is half of Google. The Wallstreet bullshiters say its because Apples growth is unsustainable. But what about Google? There Q2 revenue growth went from 22% last year to 11% this year. So you tell me whos grow is not sustainable.

    Agree all Google did was "stop doing stupid shit" and the stock went up dramatically. "stop doing stupid shit" is not a business plan and is not sustainable.

    Likewise their youtube numbers are not sustainable. People only do youtube when nothing else is available. Once something else is available (AppleMusic, TV over Internet), they will move on because the mandatory commercials are annoying.

    Plus their shares are non-voting.
  • Reply 51 of 115

    How are these analyst and news outlets proclaiming the watch a failure or modest success or tepid success? You can't compare all Apple product sales to the iPhone... most everyone wants/needs a smartphone... not everyone needs or wants a smartwatch. Especially a first gen watch that cost more than some are willing to spend and are still trying to find a reason to justify spending almost $400 on one. I think many (including myself) still do not understand why they "need" a smartwatch regardless of who makes it, what benefit does it give them beyond the phone in their pocket or purse. Personally, I'll probably get an Apple Watch, but not till second generation. Stop comparing the watch to the iPhone, it will never-ever match phone or even iPad sales numbers, it's for a smaller (dare I say niche) segment of the population.

  • Reply 52 of 115
    How are these analyst and news outlets proclaiming the watch a failure or modest success or tepid success? You can't compare all Apple product sales to the iPhone... most everyone wants/needs a smartphone... not everyone needs or wants a smartwatch. Especially a first gen watch that cost more than some are willing to spend and are still trying to find a reason to justify spending almost $400 on one. I think many (including myself) still do not understand why they "need" a smartwatch regardless of who makes it, what benefit does it give them beyond the phone in their pocket or purse. Personally, I'll probably get an Apple Watch, but not till second generation. Stop comparing the watch to the iPhone, it will never-ever match phone or even iPad sales numbers, it's for a smaller (dare I say niche) segment of the population.

    Convenience!  Freedom!

    It's hard to explain ... When you have an iPhone, you are tethered to the iPhone in your pocket ...

    When you have an Apple Watch, the watch is tethered to the iPhone in your pocket -- you are free!
  • Reply 53 of 115
    Here's a recent example of Apple Watch convenience:

    My daughter was finishing up back-to-school purchases for my 3 teenage grand kids. She noticed a new NFC checkout terminal at Aeropostle, and asked the clerk if it accepted ApplePay. The clerk said he didn't know & he would have to check with the manager ... My daughter said: "don't bother -- it just rang up." (she had waved had Apple Watch at the terminal).
  • Reply 54 of 115
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,748member
    sog35 wrote: »
    Its fricken frustrating when a company like Google announces weak 11% revenue growth and stock explodes 15%. If Apple announces 11% revenue growth the stock would probably tank 20%.

    Wall street bullsiters are constantly giving Google excuses. Blaming foreign exchange rates, allow Google to report non GAAP earnings .
    They report both GAAP and non-GAAP don't they?

    https://investor.google.com/earnings/2015/Q2_google_earnings.html

    ...well yes they do.

    As far as it being frustrating to play in the stock market it would be for me. Apparently you play along with the gaming and understand it so what's so frustrating about it for you? There's lots of investment opportunities paying better than Apple stock at the moment if you understand how to play, right? Surely you aren't tying your fortunes to Apple stock. If not what does it matter if Apple doesn't skyrocket at every earnings release. You profit if Google skyrockets or Microsoft skyrockets if I understood one of your posts from Friday.

    As the professional investor as you claim to be Google's stock performance should have made you pretty darn happy instead of frustrated. It didn't hurt your Apple holding in any way did it? Now you've got the Apple announcement to look forward to and it won't be dragged down by Google results. It's a good month right?
  • Reply 55 of 115
    doggonedoggone Posts: 183member
    If Apple sold 4-5M watches then that is pretty good for a 1st gen device.
    54M phones would be great

    It is the 5.4M Macs that would really impress me. That's 20M a year.

    iPads are interesting. My wife still uses hers. She's on her third with the other 2 handed down to my parents. I often forget about my iPad Mini. It's first gen, slow and the screen is too dark in the daylight.
    It seems to me that the iPad either needs to expand into enterprise more or needs to get lighter or potentially bigger. Don't forget though selling 10M @ 650 ASP is still around 6.5B revenue.
  • Reply 56 of 115
    indyfxindyfx Posts: 319member

    Well yes, no one has been able to sell smart watches, apple is the first to sell them in significant numbers

    And yes apple is selling a boatload of them and that we would would have called this a stunning success and "market domination" is shamesung had done it. And well, yes they were actually selling more than they could produce.

    And no we really don't know how many they actually sold, this is just supposition.

     

    ?What a load of crap.

  • Reply 57 of 115
    wonkothesanewonkothesane Posts: 1,372member
    rogifan wrote: »
    Google's PE is 33 right now. Gained $60B in market value in one day. And their quarter was nothing to write home about. Last quarter Apple beat on the top and bottom line, beat on EPS, gross margin and guidance and the stock was down 2% the next day. I seriously wonder sometimes why I'm in the stock market.

    Maybe you should just give up and go all-in on GOOG ;)
  • Reply 58 of 115
    wonkothesanewonkothesane Posts: 1,372member
    Convenience!  Freedom!

    It's hard to explain ... When you have an iPhone, you are tethered to the iPhone in your pocket ...

    When you have an Apple Watch, the watch is tethered to the iPhone in your pocket -- you are free!

    Interesting way of putting that.
  • Reply 59 of 115
    ...

    Stop comparing the watch to the iPhone, it will never-ever match phone or even iPad sales numbers, it's for a smaller (dare I say niche) segment of the population.

    I don't mean to single you out, but there is great potential for health and wellness monitoring/prevention with the Apple Watch -- and the Watch Sensors are now open to developers.

    Consider that 30% of the US population has high blood pressure -- ~100 million people.

    Consider that 10% of the US population has diabetes -- ~30 million people.

    These are potential [non-geek, non-fashion] users of the Apple Watch.

    There are already 3rd-party testing/monitoring devices that interface the iPhone & soon will interface the Apple Watch.

    I suspect that the next Apple Watch and/or 3rd-party devices will greatly extend the health and wellness monitoring/prevention capability.


    Then, there's the whole dietary intake potential. What if you could tell your Apple Watch that you are treating yourself to In-N-Out: Fries, Vanilla Shake, Burger -- Animal Style. And the Watch (via the iPhone) could retrieve the dietary breakdown (Calories, Fat, Sodium, etc.) of the meal and save it along with your fitness information -- and suggest activities to compensate for your treat.

    I have high blood pressure and take 6 different meds for that, plus a special diet. I recently had the 2nd of 2 eye cataract surgeries ... I take two different eyedrops 4 times per day (first week). After that, 1 drop three times a day for a week ... two times a day for a week ... once per day for a week ...

    Its easy to get confused with diet, meds, eyedrops -- not to mention doctor/hospital visits, etc. (I depend on my daughter for transportation). We use a shared calendar on our Macs/iPads and Apple Watches.to coordinate all this ... It's kinda' kludgey, but it works! Now that I can see again, I think I'll take a stab at writing a couple of specific Watch/iPhone apps to make this easier.


    My whole point here is that I believe the Apple Watch has much, much more potential than the iPad and iPhone that preceded it.
  • Reply 60 of 115
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,748member
    Then, there's the whole dietary intake potential. What if you could tell your Apple Watch that you are treating yourself to In-N-Out: Fries, Vanilla Shake, Burger -- Animal Style. And the Watch (via the iPhone) could retrieve the dietary breakdown (Calories, Fat, Sodium, etc.) of the meal and save it along with your fitness information -- and suggest activities to compensate for your treat.
    https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/lifesum-join-health-movement/id286906691?mt=8
    This is what I use, coupled to activity monitoring. It's pretty darn good IMO. If you haven't looked at it you should.
Sign In or Register to comment.