Wall Street seems to prefer Kremlinology over factual analysis when it comes to the Apple Watch

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 65
    Quote:

      Apple just won't play that game.

    They have to play the game simply because their stock is quoted on a trading exchange.

    The only way they can stop playing to the Anal(ists) tune is to follow Dell and go private.

    That is a fact of life that you have to accept once you decide to have an IPO.

  • Reply 22 of 65
    mj webmj web Posts: 918member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Inkling View Post



    Kremlinology over actual facts? Sorry, but that make no sense. 


    Trump-esque zealotry, that's DED's blogging style. What does Kremlinology even mean? He doesn't have a clue how many watches Apple sold because that's the way Apple wants it. Sometimes it better to count to 10 than just start scribbling. 

  • Reply 23 of 65
    thedbathedba Posts: 769member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by rotateleftbyte View Post

     

    They have to play the game simply because their stock is quoted on a trading exchange.

    The only way they can stop playing to the Anal(ists) tune is to follow Dell and go private.

    That is a fact of life that you have to accept once you decide to have an IPO.




    As a stock holder, I wouldn't want Jony Ive to open up his lab and let these, hot air blowers, start speculating on what's next.

    This would invite every other manufacturer to copy stuff even before said product is actually released. Apple would then have a much bigger problem than taking a hit on just its stock price for a few days. 

  • Reply 24 of 65
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Inkling View Post



    Kremlinology over actual facts? Sorry, but that make no sense. What are the actual sales of Apple watches? Apple's not saying and is bundling that income with other items. That suggests that they're less than spectacular.

     

    So you must also subscribe to the theory that Apple artificially constrains supply to increase demand. ?Watch was only available in 9 countries at launch and a couple weeks ago added 7 more. I bought mine in an Apple Retail Store when they finally became available. The store didn't have the model I wanted the first day I went in (42 mm SS). They said come back tomorrow as they get new supplies everyday. To me that means they are selling pretty much every watch they can make. So whether it is 1 million, 2 million or 4 million it doesn't really matter, they are selling them all.

     

    By next year it will be a little bit clearer how many they sold when Swatch group reports their numbers.

  • Reply 25 of 65
    atlappleatlapple Posts: 496member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post





    Stop posting nonsense.



    Living up to numbers or not IMHO Apple should have at least reported the numbers. It's better then having investors or analysts guess. It was hard not to feel like Tim Cook was being vague on purpose which is only going to make investors and analysts think and more so report the worst. 

     

    Just my opinion.

  • Reply 26 of 65
    airnerdairnerd Posts: 693member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Landcruiser View Post

     

    Too much focus on Apple Watch people. It's APPLE stock NOT Apple Watch stock. Wall Street has once again proven they are idiots. These clowns couldn't predict their way out of a paper bags. 


     

    But like the analysts said, since Apple already owns the market and aside from China can't really grow the phone or tablet market, what are they going to next in order to keep the good times rolling?  To analysts and investors you ALWAYS have to beat last year, so you need something innovative to do that.  Maybe it is a new phone or tablet feature?  Analysts are convinced Apple is wanting watches to be the next money making market, so if those aren't selling well and APPL doesn't have a solution for it then that is really bad...to investors.  This call and those reports are for investors, not fans or consumers.

  • Reply 27 of 65
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

    "if sales accelerated significantly in June, the number might go as high as 3 million. While some may take that as a disappointment, they shouldn't. The entire smartwatch sector shipped an estimated 4.2 million units in the whole of 2014 --?Apple sold around half that number in just 9 weeks"

    I agree. There's nothing disappointing about these speculated sales figures.

     

    I personally think the accelerated June sales is a dodge, as those likely represent sales of watches purchased in April but did not ship or get charged until June, but nevertheless that's still almost 3 million watches in less than one quarter, if not more.

     

    It's Apple's 4th quarter where I don't expect to see a lot of growth, but I do expect to see Apple's 1st quarter holiday sales to at least meet, if not surpass the launch numbers. Given that it might look conservatively like: 3Q - 3 million/4Q - 2 million/1Q - 4 million. That's a good 9 million watches sold before the end of the launch year, and maybe 12 million for the fiscal year before the first Watch hardware upgrades. For a product few people know how it will fit into their lives, that's a pretty good start, and certainly not a failure. 

  • Reply 28 of 65
    inkling wrote: »
    Kremlinology over actual facts? Sorry, but that make no sense. What are the actual sales of Apple watches? Apple's not saying and is bundling that income with other items. That suggests that they're less than spectacular.
    The biggest irony of that is that the articles on this site often do come across sounding like something out of Pravda. Everything is wonderful, and the Party never makes any mistakes! Anything negative you see is simply the result of lies by the decadent Western media!
    That's not surprising. Apple did its best and what it did is impressive. But a tiny touch screen simply isn't that useful for the vast majority of iPhone users. The UI is too constrained.
    Agreed. I think that the smartwatch concept is more niche than Apple (or Samsung, or Motorola, or Pebble, or etc.) would like to think. Oh well, it happens sometimes.

    Really, the only thing I've seen so far that made me wish I had a smartwatch was this skin:

    attachment.php?attachmentid=125327&d=1431348438
  • Reply 29 of 65
    newbeenewbee Posts: 2,055member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MJ Web View Post

    Trump-esque zealotry, that's DED's blogging style. What does Kremlinology even mean? He doesn't have a clue how many watches Apple sold because that's the way Apple wants it. Sometimes it better to count to 10 than just start scribbling. 

    The story was written by Shane Cole, according to my computer, ymmv.

  • Reply 30 of 65
    michael_cmichael_c Posts: 164member
    Quote:



    Originally Posted by Inkling View Post



    Kremlinology over actual facts? Sorry, but that make no sense. What are the actual sales of Apple watches? Apple's not saying and is bundling that income with other items. That suggests that they're less than spectacular.



    That's not surprising. Apple did its best and what it did is impressive. But a tiny touch screen simply isn't that useful for the vast majority of iPhone users. The UI is too constrained.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post





    No it doesn't as Apple said in the Fall it wouldn't release numbers. That said, analysts have been guessing and Applr did say it sold more than the iPad in its launch qtr.

     

    We wouldn't want to confuse the issue with facts ;).  I think much of the "disappointment" is fabricated to drive the stock down - either for bearish trades, or accumulation at lower price.  My guess is people like Inkling either haven't used the watch, or have their own agenda.

     

    There is no question in my mind the watch will be a big seller, and will be a driver of iPhones sales as well.  That said, a person would find the interface cumbersome if they tried to use the watch as a browsing device.  Happy, for those of us who use notifications, alerts, exercising, stock monitoring, navigation, etc.

     

    Tim Cook says he couldn't imagine living without his Apple Watch, which is a bit strong for me - however, I would definitely feel discomfort if I had to give up the watch.  It's easier to do most things I want to do using the watch.   The way they designed the interface, the screen size has been a non issue.  

     

    I find it both easier and quicker to "connect" with people using the watch.  All of the things people sight as pluses for the watch have been significant to  me, however a capability, seldom talked about, we found extremely useful.  Using "turn by turn"while walking the narrow streets in Europe was fantastic - especially in areas where pick pockets are known to be an issue, and iPhones buttoned up and safely tucked away.  The taptic feedback allowed us to navigate silently through the streets easily distinguishing right and left turn signals the watch was giving.

     

    The more I use it, the more impressed I am - No question it will be impactful.

  • Reply 31 of 65
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,056member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Inkling View Post



    Kremlinology over actual facts? Sorry, but that make no sense. What are the actual sales of Apple watches? Apple's not saying and is bundling that income with other items. That suggests that they're less than spectacular.



    That's not surprising. Apple did its best and what it did is impressive. But a tiny touch screen simply isn't that useful for the vast majority of iPhone users. The UI is too constrained.

    Why would Apple want to report Apple watch independently for its revenue takes less than 1% of Apple total revenue? Apple never did that with ANY product. Look back to history.

  • Reply 32 of 65
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,056member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by rotateleftbyte View Post

     

    They have to play the game simply because their stock is quoted on a trading exchange.

    The only way they can stop playing to the Anal(ists) tune is to follow Dell and go private.

    That is a fact of life that you have to accept once you decide to have an IPO.


    I would love to see Apple go private and fck all the WS Anal..ysts.

    BTW, thanks for the stock manipulation that forced me to cancel the sell limit at $135 and sold mine at $132. Just bought them back today at $122.05. $10/share income and I use it to buy my wife a Chanel handbag. 

  • Reply 33 of 65
    ddawson100ddawson100 Posts: 518member

    I saw a dramatic headline and assumed DED's work. Seems like we have another writer with a touch of dramatic extravagance in headlines. I read the summary below the headline. Read the first line of the article "Kremlinology appears to be alive and well on Wall Street" skrrrrrrr. Stop reading right there. I have no idea what that refers to.

     

    The results of the stock market are baffling, sure, but the analysts aren't a ruling body. This isn't a decision they made in congress. They haven't passed any rulings that need to be followed by others. The herd does what it does. The herd herds.

     

    And I don't mean to disparage DED -- his non-knee-jerk analysis is really well researched. I wish we had more from Daniel that wasn't counter-attack. Product reviews and analysis of where Apple has been and where they were headed are treats for the Apple fans such as myself. I like it most when it's about Apple, not about their competitors or how their competitors are doing it wrong.

  • Reply 34 of 65
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by fallenjt View Post

     

    I would love to see Apple go private and fck all the WS Anal..ysts.




    Why? You as a shareholder would no longer have any shares, no profit and no dividend.

     

    How? A consortium of 10 of the wealthiest people on earth could hardly afford to buy it.

     

    Do you think Apple would make better products if 10 wealthy board members with little to no consumer tech experience were making all the decisions?

  • Reply 35 of 65
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    inkling wrote: »
    What are the actual sales of Apple watches? Apple's not saying and is bundling that income with other items. That suggests that they're less than spectacular.

    So your argument is Apple decided to design, build, announce and release a product that they knew would have "less than spectacular" sales? Then why announce and release it all since these "less than spectacular" sales would just make them look bad?

    By your own argument you are saying that both Tunes Store and App Store sales are also — and have always been — "less than spectacular." Does that sound reasonable to you?
  • Reply 36 of 65
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    fallenjt wrote: »
    Why would Apple want to report Apple watch independently for its revenue takes less than 1% of Apple total revenue? Apple never did that with ANY product. Look back to history.

    Why is it so important to know Watch sales? Amazon seems to get along just fine not reporting Kindle sales. Microsoft doesn't tell us how many Surfaces or XBoxes they sold. And since we have no good numbers on sales of wearables in general what would Apple figures tell us? What would be considered success? Something similar to iPad when it first launched? A certain percentage of iPhone user base? What percent?
  • Reply 37 of 65
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    Who says Apple needs to be owned by only 10 people if they go private?

     

    There is no rule that limits the amount of people who can own a private company.




    True but to find enough money to buy the company it would take all the Saudi princes and then some. You might as well be a publicly traded company to get enough smaller investors.

  • Reply 38 of 65
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    rogifan wrote: »
    Why is it so important to know Watch sales? Amazon seems to get along just fine not reporting Kindle sales.

    Does anyone here think Kindle is unpopular or doesn't dominate the eReader market because Amazon is tightlipped about unit sales? In that Other Products category also reside Beats headphones, and I constantly read that Beats dominates that market and see Beats headphones more than any other kind, save for Apple's cheap, inclusionary EarPods.
  • Reply 39 of 65
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,407member
    ddawson100 wrote: »
    I saw a dramatic headline and assumed DED's work. Seems like we have another writer with a touch of dramatic extravagance in headlines. I read the summary below the headline. Read the first line of the article "Kremlinology appears to be alive and well on Wall Street" skrrrrrrr. Stop reading right there. I have no idea what that refers to.

    The results of the stock market are baffling, sure, but the analysts aren't a ruling body. This isn't a decision they made in congress. They haven't passed any rulings that need to be followed by others. The herd does what it does. The herd herds.

    And I don't mean to disparage DED -- his non-knee-jerk analysis is really well researched. I wish we had more from Daniel that wasn't counter-attack. Product reviews and analysis of where Apple has been and where they were headed are treats for the Apple fans such as myself. I like it most when it's about Apple, not about their competitors or how their competitors are doing it wrong.

    Weird post, for sure. You implicitly criticize the contents of the article, and yet claim you did not get past the first sentence.

    Actually, it's full of very reasonable facts and inferences, assuming we believe what Tim Cook said yesterday. What exactly do you disagree with, in substance, rather than in form?
  • Reply 40 of 65
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,407member
    sog35 wrote: »
    solipsismy wrote: »
    Does anyone here think Kindle is unpopular or doesn't dominate the eReader market because Amazon is tightlipped about unit sales? In that Other Products category also reside Beats headphones, and I constantly read that Beats dominates that market and see Beats headphones more than any other kind, save for Apple's cheap, inclusionary EarPods.

    Most beats are sold during the holiday season.  Probably over 50% of the units.

    Last Q3 iPod revenue was down 40% YoY.  I'd expect an even larger dip for Q3-2015.

    Your response has nothing to do with @SY's post.
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