Wall Street seems to prefer Kremlinology over factual analysis when it comes to the Apple Watch

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  • Reply 41 of 65
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,407member
    sog35 wrote: »
    Your response has nothing to do with @SY's post.

    Yes it does.  He was saying beats would take up a nice chunk of the other revenue.  I argue that most of the beats revenue comes during the holiday season.

    No, I don't think so. To me it seemed like he was saying that Beats is a successful product (a la Kindle), yet no one breaks out its numbers. In other words, one cannot make an inference about whether a product is successful based on whether the maker puts out unit numbers or not.

    If I am wrong, I am sure @SY will weigh in.
  • Reply 42 of 65
    bofhbofh Posts: 8member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Durandal1707 View Post





    The biggest irony of that is that the articles on this site often do come across sounding like something out of Pravda. Everything is wonderful, and the Party never makes any mistakes! Anything negative you see is simply the result of lies by the decadent Western media!

    Except that the regular history of naysayers has largely and consistently been wrong about Apple, making them more like Pravda. "Apple is doomed" is a running joke for a reason. It's been said for decades(although it probably had some merit at one point in the 90s), it's been said regularly throughout Apple's phenominal growth with iPods, iPhones, and iPads. Now it's being said with regards to the watch based on what? Hard numbers? no. 

     

    Pravda doesn't have credibility because it's been wrong, over and over again. The Apple naysayers are the ones who have been wrong, over and over and over again. How many times before this latest has Apple reported record profits only to be met with some analysts and other "experts" proclaiming that the end draws nigh and things don't look good? I've lost count. 

     

    Apple naysayers have as much credibility as end times kooks and gold bugs at this point. It doesn't matter what actually happens, it will always be proof that Apple has failed and the end is nigh for Apple. Always. "oh crap another record quarter, this does not bode well for Apple because this magic number analysts conjured out of thin air wasn't in play and Tim Cook didn't do the Hokie Pokie and turn himself around during the earnings call". It's beyond ridiculous at this point. 

     

     

     

    To the question of watch adoption numbers that people are trying to divine, knowing the hard numbers wouldn't tell the whole story anyway. I personally haven't gotten one yet because of availability issues. I'm not a fan of making appointments to buy stuff. Blame my blue collar upbringing I guess, but I like walking into a store, checking a thing out, and buying something without planning my day around it. Doing otherwise is foreign to me. I don't know if that has changed, if you can finally do that or not, but I know I'm not the only one who has held off because of the way that was setup at first.

     

    Eventually I figure it won't be that way, and then I'll buy one(if it has changed, the news hasn't reached my ears, and I'm not about to do it during the summer anyway as I'm a merchant and I'm very conservative with my cash during the lean summer months, even though this has been the best summer we've had in many years). I doubt I'm alone in this. A lot of people I've talked to intend to get one, but perceive it as a hassle because of the way availability and the appointment bit has been. There are also some grumblings about the look of the lowest cost watches and bands and the price for the stainless steel(which most of the *guys* I know would prefer). That last is something Apple can exploit and address in the future to increase uptake. 

     

    As of now, my sense is there is still a lot of unmet demand for the watch that will ensure healthy sales for the foreseeable future and there is probably growing demand too, as the idea becomes more mainstream and Apple Watches continue to show up on wrists in greater numbers. I don't see any bad signs of waning demand among the company I personally keep. They aren't nearly as popular as iPhones or iPads at this point, but neither of those devices were as popular as they are now, this soon after their launch, so duh. 

  • Reply 43 of 65
    jbelkinjbelkin Posts: 74member
    Or basically that a new Apple unit made $1-$3 BILLION dollars in revenue in 90 days. How many companies have ever done that before? How about ZERO?
  • Reply 44 of 65
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,926member
    atlapple wrote: »

    Living up to numbers or not IMHO Apple should have at least reported the numbers. It's better then having investors or analysts guess. It was hard not to feel like Tim Cook was being vague on purpose which is only going to make investors and analysts think and more so report the worst. 

    Just my opinion.

    Of course Tim was vague. He said in the fall Apple wouldn't announce numbers. Analysts will always guess.
  • Reply 45 of 65
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    jbelkin wrote: »
    Or basically that a new Apple unit made $1-$3 BILLION dollars in revenue in 90 days. How many companies have ever done that before? How about ZERO?

    Is it zero? I would have assumed that MS or Sony may have done it.


    edit: Kinect did over 8MM in 60 days and over 10MM in less than 90 days which brings that to 1.2 to 1.5 B with a $150 price point.
  • Reply 46 of 65
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    No, I don't think so. To me it seemed like he was saying that Beats is a successful product (a la Kindle), yet no one breaks out its numbers. In other words, one cannot make an inference about whether a product is successful based on whether the maker puts out unit numbers or not.

    If I am wrong, I am sure @SY will weigh in.

    Yes, that's what I am saying. I don't even see how holiday-heavy sales (which is by far the most common for CE) has anything to do with my comment about a lack of breaking out individual numbers for Beats, iTunes Store, App Store in an SEC filing is proof that these segments are market failures.
  • Reply 47 of 65
    igrouchoigroucho Posts: 63member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by airnerd View Post

     

     

    But like the analysts said, since Apple already owns the market and aside from China can't really grow the phone or tablet market, what are they going to next in order to keep the good times rolling?  To analysts and investors you ALWAYS have to beat last year, so you need something innovative to do that.  Maybe it is a new phone or tablet feature?  Analysts are convinced Apple is wanting watches to be the next money making market, so if those aren't selling well and APPL doesn't have a solution for it then that is really bad...to investors.  This call and those reports are for investors, not fans or consumers.

     


    But PLEASE: They HAVE beaten last years Q2 by > 30% more or less across the board - what more do you ask??

  • Reply 48 of 65
    b9botb9bot Posts: 238member
    Actual facts about there earnings you mean. Record earnings at that. They always have a lame excuse to knock the stock down. Google has an okay quarter barely meeting expectations and there stock goes up $85 a share. Bunch of idiots in the stock market from what I can tell. They can't tell a great company if it was painted on there stupid faces. How many record quarters does this make for Apple. 10 or more I believe and they still don't get it. IDIOTS all of them.
  • Reply 49 of 65
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by fallenjt View Post

    Why would Apple want to report Apple watch independently for its revenue takes less than 1% of Apple total revenue? Apple never did that with ANY product. Look back to history.




    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post

    Does anyone here think Kindle is unpopular or doesn't dominate the eReader market because Amazon is tightlipped about unit sales? In that Other Products category also reside Beats headphones, and I constantly read that Beats dominates that market and see Beats headphones more than any other kind, save for Apple's cheap, inclusionary EarPods.

    This is what the whiners on this board, and the general "click bait" or "speak first - think later" media, fail to understand.  Especially for a large company, it makes absolutely no sense to break out units sold in a new product, or emerging category.  In fact, most companies no longer officially report unit numbers at all (Apple being one of the few in their established lines).  Microsoft doesn't report how many new copies of Windows sold, or Office, or Office 365 subscriptions.  They report revenue for product lines.  How many PC's did Samsung sell last quarter?  How many total smart watches ?  As noted, how many Kindles has Amazon sold?  You don't see the media getting their panties in a bunch about those companies.

     

    Apple indicated long ago they would not be doing units for AW.  That is both for competitive reasons, but also I assume to not have to have a new product in an emerging market go under the microscope of detail every minute.  Especially when no other company is offering up such numbers.



    For those who say that Apple should report the numbers just to make the media stop making things up, remember:

    - The media / bloggers / whiners will never stop what they do.  They would simply take the numbers and make up different stories (almost uniformly negative you can be assured).

    - The analysis and commentary on the numbers would actually increase, making it more of a distraction

     

    Finally, no company should be operating to please the media, detractors, or even Wall Street.  Apple needs to be very focused on the product evolution, use cases, execution of build and sales channels, and customer satisfaction.  The last thing Apple management should be focused on is "hmm...getting negative rumours on watch sales...let's spend some time on how to manage the media and investor expectations...maybe we should change our financial accounting plans to please more people".

  • Reply 50 of 65
    Actually Microsoft does break out Subscriptions for Office 365. 15 million consumers total, 3 million gained. And the only reason why companies don't publish these numbers is because they add pressure and unwanted transparency.
  • Reply 51 of 65
    evilutionevilution Posts: 1,399member
    inkling wrote: »
    That suggests that they're less than spectacular.

    No, it just shows that Apple know how it would all pan out. It doesn't matter what numbers they sold of the Apple watch, it would be a failure to most of the analysts.
    Not to mention that if they release the figures, they then have to sell 100% more watches next year or it'll be seen as a failing sector.

    Apple would have done themselves a favour by not releasing figures for any products and not being on the stock market would have been even better.
  • Reply 52 of 65
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    Actually Microsoft does break out Subscriptions for Office 365. 15 million consumers total, 3 million gained. And the only reason why companies don't publish these numbers is because they add pressure and unwanted transparency.

    They break out these numbers in their SEC filings?
  • Reply 53 of 65
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    They break out these numbers in their SEC filings?

    Page 6 of 21 in the 8K:

    "Office 365 Consumer subscribers increased to 15.2 million, with nearly 3 million subscribers added in the quarter"

  • Reply 54 of 65
    crossladcrosslad Posts: 527member
    Page 6 of 21 in the 8K:
    "Office 365 Consumer subscribers increased to 15.2 million, with nearly 3 million subscribers added in the quarter"

    But how many of these Office 365 subscribers were those that got a free subscription with a new Windows Phone or Tablet?
  • Reply 55 of 65
    crosslad wrote: »
    But how many of these Office 365 subscribers were those that got a free subscription with a new Windows Phone or Tablet?

    That is certainly a big portion of the new subscribers. But that was not the point. All I said was that Microsoft does provide subscriber numbers. Netflix does that too btw and also differentiates between all subscribers and paying subscribers. So Apple is not the only company which provides detailled customer numbers.
  • Reply 56 of 65
    mj webmj web Posts: 918member

    Having held AAPL going on ten years, another record setting quarter and the traders weak knee reaction is par for the course. It'll be 140 by November. Long term AAPL is positioned to flirt with 150 by December, that's my anticipation. I've been an investor since Jobs switched to Intel and opened Mac up to Windows users via Boot Camp. I see no reason to sell when Tim Cook is just beginning to feel his oats.

  • Reply 57 of 65

    I wonder what would happen if Apple went the other way. Lump the iPhone, iPad & Mac sales along with 'Others' and just report it as "sales"!

  • Reply 58 of 65
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    In my Twitter feed I saw a headline from USA Today that said Microsoft phones are outselling Apple Watch. OK someone help me out here. What is the point of comparing Apple Watch estimated sales to smartphone sales from Microsoft? What am I supposed to take away from that headline (yes this is a somewhat rhetorical question)?
  • Reply 59 of 65
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    evilution wrote: »
    No, it just shows that Apple know how it would all pan out. It doesn't matter what numbers they sold of the Apple watch, it would be a failure to most of the analysts.
    Not to mention that if they release the figures, they then have to sell 100% more watches next year or it'll be seen as a failing sector.

    Apple would have done themselves a favour by not releasing figures for any products and not being on the stock market would have been even better.

    You make a good point. Once Apple starts releasing sales figures they can't really stop (unless it's dying product line like iPod). This quarter we saw a 5% drop in the stock because Wall Street was expecting a 36% increase in iPhone sales and Apple only delivered 35%. The minute Apple releases Apple Watch sales figures Wall Street will be expecting huge growth numbers every quarter and if Apple doesn't deliver it will be DOOM. Makes zero sense for Apple to do that.

    I'm really annoyed with some of the Apple bloggers and podcasts that seem to be personally offended that Apple isn't providing sales figures. The Mac Observer podcast spent like 20 minutes on this as though some how they have a right to know how many watches Apple sold. No. If it's not something that the SEC requires Apple to disclose we don't have the right to know it. And all these Apple analysts spending all this time trying to figure out what sales might be are just wasting their time on something that doesn't matter. The only people that need to care about Apple Watch sales are Apple executives.
  • Reply 60 of 65
    thedbathedba Posts: 768member
    rogifan wrote: »
    In my Twitter feed I saw a headline from USA Today that said Microsoft phones are outselling Apple Watch. OK someone help me out here. What is the point of comparing Apple Watch estimated sales to smartphone sales from Microsoft? What am I supposed to take away from that headline (yes this is a somewhat rhetorical question)?

    If USA today has a comments section, I would ask this same question there.
    However if you want to be a little bit snarky then I would retweet with a comment like this.
    In other news, McDonald's sold more hamburgers than Apple sold iPhones.
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