Apple took the iPhone 5 after 1 year, changed the networking/LTE chip to add more LTE bands, stuck the innards, identical otherwise, in a new form factor and dubbed it the iPhone 5c. (The innards cost more to re-engineer than the outer case and antenna.)
• All this chatter is not seeing how Apple does things:
Apple continues to make most of their iOS products for at least 3 generations/years. Similarly carmakers typically make the same generation of car for 3-5 years, it is the way things go with mass production...it costs more to re-engineer a product, less to keep making it same as last year, thus the price drops on the old when they produce a new model.
The iPhone 5 became 5c, but, innards were iPhone 5, so it has been produced for 3 generations, and it is on it's way out. The 5s has another year to go, but, I think they will do what they did with the 5 and put it in the c form factor.
The iPhone 6 4.7" will become the mid-tier model when 6s/6s+ come out. It would make sense for Apple to simply drop the 6+, making the 6s+ the only 5.5" model.
So, likely this fall:
iPhone 6s+
iPhone 6s
iPhone 6 (drop $100)
iPhone 5s(c)
No more 6+, and 5s goes into 5c form factor, maybe NFC chip added to enable Apple Pay. Otherwise no other major changes this year, maybe next year.
IMO
iPhone 5 was original, not a rebadge. Did you even read my comment? I meant a rebadged phone never last one year: 5C has been 2 years old.
My point to response the prediction of your 5Sc and 6C that are released and discontinued after a year. That's a non-sense to rebadge instead of sell it "as is" and discontinue it in 1 year.
This is the problem and I don't know why you didn't even see it: Why rebadge 5S and let it die next year? Why not just sell it as is?
Also, Apple WOULD NOT drop $50 on 1 year old phone. BTW, if you think 6S is only $50 more expensive then 6, you're so WRONG. I would bet 1 month ban on AI if 6 is not discontinued, it will be $99 subsidized while 6S is $199. Deal?
Where is 6C now? There would have been a case leak for this 4.7" 6C if there's actually one to be produced. My prediction: no new COLOR phone this year except Rose Gold flagships.
What we need is smaller footprint iphone 6. Whether Apple makes it 4" or 4.1" or 4.2" or 4.3 long as it can easily handled in one hand, slide in and out of pocket easily. What I mean is overall manageability like 4S and 5S. Just take iphone 4S and stretch it proportionally bit larger. I always miss iphone 4s proportional length vs width screen scale. Than, iphone 5 length got larger but width remain same as 4s.
On larger screen side, Apple can push upward to 6" or whatever.
I agree. I don't know whether Apple "needs" to make it or not, but there seems to be a large number of people who would appreciate it. Surely at least as many people will buy a 4" iPhone as will buy an iPod Touch, yet Apple maintains that small and shrinking market segment.
I too have been lamenting my 4S size ever since I bought my 5S, which I bought just last year (it's just a little too long for me, but I would surely miss the display size). Nevertheless, I have no intention of upgrading my 5S until Apple releases a 4" phone, unless technology limitations of the 5S force me to. But I will be a hold out as long as possible. Frankly, the 5S is an amazing phone which should serve me well for at least two more years.
I think it's too soon to asses the significance of those who prefer smaller phones vs. those who upgraded to the 6, since half the market for the 6 just bought the 5S a year earlier and are still under a contract for the next year. Likewise for the 5C which Apple said sold well. And Apple has further said the 5S & 5C are selling well still. So that's another two years customers are tied to that phone under contract. And it's not an easy one to analyze, since Apple is constantly expanding their market, especially in China; and the 6 in particular added a significant new market segment, which was the Android user who really wanted an iPhone but were addicted to the giant screens.
Is this an issue that will make me switch to Android? Of course not. If Apple refuses to service my needs for a smaller footprint phone, then I will reluctantly upgrade to the next smallest model when the time comes. But I don't think that's their strategy. If nothing else, Apple may keep a 4" phone alive at the bottom. It makes sense to push customers up to higher priced models, and smaller screens certainly cost less to produce. And if Apple designs their flagship phones to be miniaturized later in their life cycle, then it shouldn't be an unreasonable cost to maintain that "free" phone with periodic updates. The fact that I'm perfectly happy with my iPhone 5S means I'd gladly buy it next year too. If Apple maintains a phone at that level without the latest bells and whistles, then it would probably do very well for the entry level as well as users who are willing to sacrifice features for size.
We'll see when the 7 comes out. I don't have high hopes for Apple to do it while the 5S is still in the lineup somewhere, especially mid-cycle when people have already done what they were planning to do with respect to upgrades. But I also don't think it makes any sense to offer a 4.7" phone as the "free" phone, as well as the $99 phone, and the top of the line phone, and screen size makes for great distinction between models.
Of course if anyone has any links to any research which completely disproves that there's a market for a 4" iPhone, then I'll sadly entertain it.
That's a non-sense to rebadge instead of sell it "as is" and discontinue it in 1 year.
Not really. Apple has now established a new benchmark for the "free" phone. It's a plastic case, and it's selling well. Continuing to sell the premium iPhone 5S as is for "free" sort of raises the bar that Apple has successfully lowered with the 5C. Also, it frees up a manufacturing facility currently milling metal 5S cases to continue making the 6, or whatever arrives as the mid-tier phone, without building more factories.
I believe that Apple clearly engineered the 5S to be transferred to the 5C at some point to reduce costs, and as such, there's no reason not to "rebadge" it, even if it only lasts another sales year, since it actually costs Apple less to make, as well as the other pluses I mentioned above, and a few I haven't thought of, I'm sure.
Dude you are behind the discussion. You have not been following Apple trends lately.
In 2013 when the iPhone5S came out Apple got rid of the iPhone5. They did not sell last years model (iPhone5) for $100 less. Look it up.
What they did was introduce the 5C to differentiate between the top tier (5S) and mid tier (5C).
IMO Apple will never have a top tier and mid tier that have the exact same shell again.
Last year when the 6 came out they slid the 5S to the mid tier because it was a total redesign so there was no problem with the 5S canibalizing the 6. If you follow the pattern of the last 2 years its pretty obvious what Apple will do this year:
6S - top
6C - mid
5S - bottom
I've been following Apple's trends for years, the problem is that too many people think the 5c is a totally new phone, when it is not. Look at my other comments...I'll write it again a little differently: iPhone 5 was Apple's first LTE iPhone, and it was unable to work in emerging markets because it had few LTE bands. They took the iPhone 5 internals, just as they were, except changed the LTE chip for one with more bands, put it in a different case, both of which were to make it more marketable in emerging markets, but, essentially, from an engineering and technical standpoint, the 5 & 5c are basically the same beast in different packaging. From a production standpoint, the internals cost more to re-engineer than a new case, thus the discontinuation of the 5 when the 5c began production. ...Some may even recall Apple making a minor change to the iPhone 5 in April 2013, new networking/cell chip for compatibility with T-Mobile. These kinds of changes keep the internals mostly intact, re-engineering costs low.
OK, for those that don't seem to remember (on contract prices):
iPhone 4s $199
iPhone 4 $99
iPhone 3gs $49/$0
iPhone 5 (A6) $199
iPhone 4s (A5) $99
iPhone 4 (A4) $49/$0
iPhone 5s (A7, M7) $199
iPhone 5c (A6) $99 (replaced iPhone 5, same internals except LTE chip, just a new look, and more LTE bands so it can sell in emerging markets)
iPhone 4s (A5) $0
iPhone 6+ (A8, M8) $299
iPhone 6 (A8, M8) $199
iPhone 5s (A7, M7) $99
iPhone 5c (A6) $0
Next up (IMO):
iPhone 6s+ (A9, M9) $299
iPhone 6s (A9, M9) $199
iPhone 6 (A8, M8) $99 (drop 6+)
iPhone 5s(c) (A7, M7) $0 (take 5s put in c form factor).
This makes the most sense. We shall see in September. I'm done.
As I already stated, Apple repackaged the iPhone 5 as the 5c, that is why they dropped the 5. They both have A6 logic boards and function the same, just look different on the outside and the 5c has more LTE bands, (and a slightly larger battery), that is all. When it comes to the logic board, (which is where it counts), there are very little changes.
The 5c replaced the 5, both have the A6 processor, both functionally the same, both perform the same in tests.
iPhone 5s(c) (A7, M7) $0 (take 5s put in c form factor).
This makes the most sense. We shall see in September.
I agree this is the most logical thing to expect, as much as I want a new 4" phone.
The only caveat I would add is the mid-tier 6 might only be sold in only one or two colors. That would further distinguish it from the new 6S which may come in as many as 4 colors if rumors pan out.
As I already stated, Apple repackaged the iPhone 5 as the 5c, that is why they dropped the 5. They both have A6 logic boards and function the same, just look different on the outside and the 5c has more LTE bands, (and a slightly larger battery), that is all. When it comes to the logic board, (which is where it counts), there are very little changes.
The 5c replaced the 5, both have the A6 processor, both functionally the same, both perform the same in tests.
The iPhone 5c took over the iPhone 5 slot.
In Sog's world it's not the same because one is aluminum and glass and the other is colored plastic. Sog is convinced if Apple takes the existing iPhone 6 and drops the price $100 fewer people will buy the 6S because the phones aesthetically look the same but one is cheaper. But it makes zero sense to have the mid tier phone be plastic but the low end aluminum and glass. So either both the mid tier and low end are plastic or the mid tier is just the current 6 but cheaper.
I'm with you in that the purpose of the C model was to eventually occupy the low end "free" slot in the lineup. I don't think Apple is worried that a cheaper 6 will cannibalize the 6S. If they are then either the 6S isn't a big enough upgrade and they know it, or they just need to get rid of the mid tier all together. Which they won't because going from $0 to $199 isn't an option. Honestly I think price drives what people buy. I'm not convinced just sticking something in a plastic case will get people to spend $100 more.
Look what Apple did when the 5S came out. That is the template for when the 6S comes out. For most people TouchID/A7 would not be enough reason to pay $100 for the 5S instead of the 5. That is why Apple got rid of the 5 and introduced the 5C.
To me TouchID is worth $100. But I'm not the common man. Most won't. Or are ignorant of how convient it is.
The current mid tier phone is metal because it is a totally different body style. iPhone6 is a totally different body style and larger screen so there was little threat that the 5S would cannibalize the 6.
Next year when the iPhone7 comes out I'm pretty sure we will see the 6S as the mid tier.
iPod/iPads are different animals than the iPhone. They don't sell enough of either to justify starting a whole new assembly line of plastic pods/pads.
We have not seen any leaks of a 6C because they are probably going to use the 5C case and stuff iPhone6 internals in it.
I don't think so; they would need to re-engineer practically the entire phone to "stuff" a 4.7" phone into a 4" case. they're not doing that. They're doing a new aluminum phone, 4" with 5S internals (6C)-perhaps aluminum in colors like the new-gen touch. Otherwise, no new 4" phone; just a 4" iPod touch.
Not really. Apple has now established a new benchmark for the "free" phone. It's a plastic case, and it's selling well. Continuing to sell the premium iPhone 5S as is for "free" sort of raises the bar that Apple has successfully lowered with the 5C. Also, it frees up a manufacturing facility currently milling metal 5S cases to continue making the 6, or whatever arrives as the mid-tier phone, without building more factories.
I believe that Apple clearly engineered the 5S to be transferred to the 5C at some point to reduce costs, and as such, there's no reason not to "rebadge" it, even if it only lasts another sales year, since it actually costs Apple less to make, as well as the other pluses I mentioned above, and a few I haven't thought of, I'm sure.
This is another wrong assessment: cheaper to make the phone case with re-enforced polycarbonate than metal. You forget one thing: 5S case was already designed and manufacturer's equipment configurations were already set up. Remember the chassis of 5S and 5C is not the same. That mean existing 5C case won't fit 5S components (screw positions, circuit board locations and such...). The cost of reconfiguring manufacturing equipment may just offset the BOM cost of metal-polycarbonate. Why would Apple want to do something that gives them zero benefit? 5SC is none sense since it doesn't differentiate itself from any current iPhone. 5 to 5C made sense because it differentiated itself from 5S.
I've been following Apple's trends for years, the problem is that too many people think the 5c is a totally new phone, when it is not. Look at my other comments...I'll write it again a little differently: iPhone 5 was Apple's first LTE iPhone, and it was unable to work in emerging markets because it had few LTE bands. They took the iPhone 5 internals, just as they were, except changed the LTE chip for one with more bands, put it in a different case, both of which were to make it more marketable in emerging markets, but, essentially, from an engineering and technical standpoint, the 5 & 5c are basically the same beast in different packaging. From a production standpoint, the internals cost more to re-engineer than a new case, thus the discontinuation of the 5 when the 5c began production. ...Some may even recall Apple making a minor change to the iPhone 5 in April 2013, new networking/cell chip for compatibility with T-Mobile. These kinds of changes keep the internals mostly intact, re-engineering costs low.
OK, for those that don't seem to remember (on contract prices):
iPhone 4s $199
iPhone 4 $99
iPhone 3gs $49/$0
iPhone 5 (A6) $199
iPhone 4s (A5) $99
iPhone 4 (A4) $49/$0
iPhone 5s (A7, M7) $199
iPhone 5c (A6) $99 (replaced iPhone 5, same internals except LTE chip, just a new look, and more LTE bands so it can sell in emerging markets)
iPhone 4s (A5) $0
iPhone 6+ (A8, M8) $299
iPhone 6 (A8, M8) $199
iPhone 5s (A7, M7) $99
iPhone 5c (A6) $0
Next up (IMO):
iPhone 6s+ (A9, M9) $299
iPhone 6s (A9, M9) $199
iPhone 6 (A8, M8) $99 (drop 6+)
iPhone 5s(c) (A7, M7) $0 (take 5s put in c form factor).
This makes the most sense. We shall see in September. I'm done.
(EDIT: added processors next to iPhone models)
I don't believe the last one. I bet that 5S will stay as it is this year. No reason/benefit to put it in plastic case.
In Sog's world it's not the same because one is aluminum and glass and the other is colored plastic. Sog is convinced if Apple takes the existing iPhone 6 and drops the price $100 fewer people will buy the 6S because the phones aesthetically look the same but one is cheaper. But it makes zero sense to have the mid tier phone be plastic but the low end aluminum and glass. So either both the mid tier and low end are plastic or the mid tier is just the current 6 but cheaper.
I'm with you in that the purpose of the C model was to eventually occupy the low end "free" slot in the lineup. I don't think Apple is worried that a cheaper 6 will cannibalize the 6S. If they are then either the 6S isn't a big enough upgrade and they know it, or they just need to get rid of the mid tier all together. Which they won't because going from $0 to $199 isn't an option. Honestly I think price drives what people buy. I'm not convinced just sticking something in a plastic case will get people to spend $100 more.
Sog's analysis resides with Sog. 6 is still not 6S no matter how hard he tries. People buying 6S are usually those who actually want 6S, not 6 and people who want cheaper mid range 6 would not get 6S anyway. That's why they wait for a year for the price to come down. I don't see cannibalization at all here. 6S fans know exactly what they will get (force touch, better camera, better chip, more RAM...) and will not settle for less on 6.
Maybe. I'm still not convinced the plastic phone was meant for the mid-tier long term. I think it was ultimately meant to occupy the low-tier "free on contract" phone. And it's possible it was just an experiment to see how the market would react.
Honestly I think it's a bit worrisome if the mid-tier stays plastic solely because Apple is worried not enough people would buy the flagship otherwise. Apple is not doing that in other product lines. Look at the new MacBook. Probably one of the most beautiful products Apple has ever designed. I think it's clear that will eventually become the entry level laptop in the lineup replacing the MBA. Apple didn't make it plastic for fear of cannibalizing the MBP. There is real product differentiation there. What you're suggesting is either Apple can't do that with the iPhone or the updates they're making aren't worth of the prices they're charging. Personally I think faster chip, 2GB RAM, better camera and force touch are worthy upgrades that will get consumers to choose the flagship over cheaper models.
I don't see Apple having two plastic iPhones in the line up (which would happen once the iPhone 7 came along).
I generally agree. Most people are on two-year contracts or two year payment plans. Many who upgraded in the past year did so to the 6/6+ from the 5. Those who have not upgraded yet will be upgrading to the 6S/6S+ from the 5S.
Some people are on S upgrade cycles, some are not. I suspect that 50% or more are on two year upgrade cycles give or take a few months. They will get the newest phone, i.e, likely are not interested in saving $100 to go down a level to save $100 bucks.
Having said that, I think that 30% upgrade number was current at that time (winter 2014), but the upgrade to 6/6+ may be approaching the 50% number I noted above.
Anecdotally, I see a lot more 6 and 6+ iPhones on the subway that I even did a few months ago.
In my view, one of Apple's chief concerns is how to maximize profits on and control the inventory of the SoC and the case.
Or, no 6C, just the iPod touch 4" iOS option (aluminum color cases/A8 SoC)
A7 SoCs go to Apple TVs, iPad mini 2s, etc. In other words, the 64 bit A7 becomes the new lowest end SoC (previously the A5) which is out the door.
I think the iPod touch signals that the plastic iPhone C case is on its way out. Why have a plastic 6C line when you could share a colorful aluminum production line with the iPod Touch? This also answers the question, why an iPod touch. Why not, if it is using the same components and case as the iPhone C series? The 4" phone will NEVER have the 4.7/5.5" phone specs.
What I think Sog35 doesn't understand is that at the end of the day Apple wants an overall close-to-40% margin on products. If one product has a somewhat lower margin, ok. Overall, you'll see 39% gross margins across the above iPhone/iPod product lines. This configuration also leaves a simple understandable lineup with no price umbrella for Android OEMs.
Where is 6C now? There would have been a case leak for this 4.7" 6C if there's actually one to be produced. My prediction: no new COLOR phone this year except Rose Gold flagships.
Look what Apple did when the 5S came out. That is the template for when the 6S comes out. For most people TouchID/A7 would not be enough reason to pay $100 for the 5S instead of the 5. That is why Apple got rid of the 5 and introduced the 5C.
To me TouchID is worth $100. But I'm not the common man. Most won't. Or are ignorant of how convient it is.
Not only TouchID/A7, but camera (better pixel size, focal lens...), better camcorder (burst mode, slow motion). better/bigger battery. Again, I meant "S" version owners knew what they got and were willing to pay $100 more for it. I do too. If 6+S has force touch, more RAM, better camera beside new A9 chip, I want it over 6+ for $100 more regardless of the same cosmetic look.
I don't think so. A $99 iPhone6 would canibalize the 6S.
People would ask what does the 6S have that the 6 doesn't? Faster chip, more ram, force touch. That's not going to be enough to convience most people to pay $100 more.
Wrong. Force Touch, A9 chip, 2GB of RAM, better camera are more than enough for $100 upgrade. When you say "people", you mean those who just want an iPhone, not caring about what's inside. Those are really minority. People want "S" version because they really want the performance with all the bugs sorted out of the "S" These will not settle for 6 because of $100.
Comments
Apple took the iPhone 5 after 1 year, changed the networking/LTE chip to add more LTE bands, stuck the innards, identical otherwise, in a new form factor and dubbed it the iPhone 5c. (The innards cost more to re-engineer than the outer case and antenna.)
• All this chatter is not seeing how Apple does things:
Apple continues to make most of their iOS products for at least 3 generations/years. Similarly carmakers typically make the same generation of car for 3-5 years, it is the way things go with mass production...it costs more to re-engineer a product, less to keep making it same as last year, thus the price drops on the old when they produce a new model.
The iPhone 5 became 5c, but, innards were iPhone 5, so it has been produced for 3 generations, and it is on it's way out. The 5s has another year to go, but, I think they will do what they did with the 5 and put it in the c form factor.
The iPhone 6 4.7" will become the mid-tier model when 6s/6s+ come out. It would make sense for Apple to simply drop the 6+, making the 6s+ the only 5.5" model.
So, likely this fall:
iPhone 6s+
iPhone 6s
iPhone 6 (drop $100)
iPhone 5s(c)
No more 6+, and 5s goes into 5c form factor, maybe NFC chip added to enable Apple Pay. Otherwise no other major changes this year, maybe next year.
IMO
iPhone 5 was original, not a rebadge. Did you even read my comment? I meant a rebadged phone never last one year: 5C has been 2 years old.
My point to response the prediction of your 5Sc and 6C that are released and discontinued after a year. That's a non-sense to rebadge instead of sell it "as is" and discontinue it in 1 year.
6S/6S+ $299 / $199
iPhone6 - $149
iPhone 5SC - $49
This is the problem and I don't know why you didn't even see it: Why rebadge 5S and let it die next year? Why not just sell it as is?
Also, Apple WOULD NOT drop $50 on 1 year old phone. BTW, if you think 6S is only $50 more expensive then 6, you're so WRONG. I would bet 1 month ban on AI if 6 is not discontinued, it will be $99 subsidized while 6S is $199. Deal?
Just look at history.
5S/5C/4S
I think they will follow the same pattern
6S/6C/5S
Where is 6C now? There would have been a case leak for this 4.7" 6C if there's actually one to be produced. My prediction: no new COLOR phone this year except Rose Gold flagships.
What we need is smaller footprint iphone 6. Whether Apple makes it 4" or 4.1" or 4.2" or 4.3 long as it can easily handled in one hand, slide in and out of pocket easily. What I mean is overall manageability like 4S and 5S. Just take iphone 4S and stretch it proportionally bit larger. I always miss iphone 4s proportional length vs width screen scale. Than, iphone 5 length got larger but width remain same as 4s.
On larger screen side, Apple can push upward to 6" or whatever.
I agree. I don't know whether Apple "needs" to make it or not, but there seems to be a large number of people who would appreciate it. Surely at least as many people will buy a 4" iPhone as will buy an iPod Touch, yet Apple maintains that small and shrinking market segment.
I too have been lamenting my 4S size ever since I bought my 5S, which I bought just last year (it's just a little too long for me, but I would surely miss the display size). Nevertheless, I have no intention of upgrading my 5S until Apple releases a 4" phone, unless technology limitations of the 5S force me to. But I will be a hold out as long as possible. Frankly, the 5S is an amazing phone which should serve me well for at least two more years.
I think it's too soon to asses the significance of those who prefer smaller phones vs. those who upgraded to the 6, since half the market for the 6 just bought the 5S a year earlier and are still under a contract for the next year. Likewise for the 5C which Apple said sold well. And Apple has further said the 5S & 5C are selling well still. So that's another two years customers are tied to that phone under contract. And it's not an easy one to analyze, since Apple is constantly expanding their market, especially in China; and the 6 in particular added a significant new market segment, which was the Android user who really wanted an iPhone but were addicted to the giant screens.
Is this an issue that will make me switch to Android? Of course not. If Apple refuses to service my needs for a smaller footprint phone, then I will reluctantly upgrade to the next smallest model when the time comes. But I don't think that's their strategy. If nothing else, Apple may keep a 4" phone alive at the bottom. It makes sense to push customers up to higher priced models, and smaller screens certainly cost less to produce. And if Apple designs their flagship phones to be miniaturized later in their life cycle, then it shouldn't be an unreasonable cost to maintain that "free" phone with periodic updates. The fact that I'm perfectly happy with my iPhone 5S means I'd gladly buy it next year too. If Apple maintains a phone at that level without the latest bells and whistles, then it would probably do very well for the entry level as well as users who are willing to sacrifice features for size.
We'll see when the 7 comes out. I don't have high hopes for Apple to do it while the 5S is still in the lineup somewhere, especially mid-cycle when people have already done what they were planning to do with respect to upgrades. But I also don't think it makes any sense to offer a 4.7" phone as the "free" phone, as well as the $99 phone, and the top of the line phone, and screen size makes for great distinction between models.
Of course if anyone has any links to any research which completely disproves that there's a market for a 4" iPhone, then I'll sadly entertain it.
wrong place
That's a non-sense to rebadge instead of sell it "as is" and discontinue it in 1 year.
Not really. Apple has now established a new benchmark for the "free" phone. It's a plastic case, and it's selling well. Continuing to sell the premium iPhone 5S as is for "free" sort of raises the bar that Apple has successfully lowered with the 5C. Also, it frees up a manufacturing facility currently milling metal 5S cases to continue making the 6, or whatever arrives as the mid-tier phone, without building more factories.
I believe that Apple clearly engineered the 5S to be transferred to the 5C at some point to reduce costs, and as such, there's no reason not to "rebadge" it, even if it only lasts another sales year, since it actually costs Apple less to make, as well as the other pluses I mentioned above, and a few I haven't thought of, I'm sure.
Dude you are behind the discussion. You have not been following Apple trends lately.
In 2013 when the iPhone5S came out Apple got rid of the iPhone5. They did not sell last years model (iPhone5) for $100 less. Look it up.
What they did was introduce the 5C to differentiate between the top tier (5S) and mid tier (5C).
IMO Apple will never have a top tier and mid tier that have the exact same shell again.
Last year when the 6 came out they slid the 5S to the mid tier because it was a total redesign so there was no problem with the 5S canibalizing the 6. If you follow the pattern of the last 2 years its pretty obvious what Apple will do this year:
6S - top
6C - mid
5S - bottom
I've been following Apple's trends for years, the problem is that too many people think the 5c is a totally new phone, when it is not. Look at my other comments...I'll write it again a little differently: iPhone 5 was Apple's first LTE iPhone, and it was unable to work in emerging markets because it had few LTE bands. They took the iPhone 5 internals, just as they were, except changed the LTE chip for one with more bands, put it in a different case, both of which were to make it more marketable in emerging markets, but, essentially, from an engineering and technical standpoint, the 5 & 5c are basically the same beast in different packaging. From a production standpoint, the internals cost more to re-engineer than a new case, thus the discontinuation of the 5 when the 5c began production. ...Some may even recall Apple making a minor change to the iPhone 5 in April 2013, new networking/cell chip for compatibility with T-Mobile. These kinds of changes keep the internals mostly intact, re-engineering costs low.
OK, for those that don't seem to remember (on contract prices):
iPhone 4s $199
iPhone 4 $99
iPhone 3gs $49/$0
iPhone 5 (A6) $199
iPhone 4s (A5) $99
iPhone 4 (A4) $49/$0
iPhone 5s (A7, M7) $199
iPhone 5c (A6) $99 (replaced iPhone 5, same internals except LTE chip, just a new look, and more LTE bands so it can sell in emerging markets)
iPhone 4s (A5) $0
iPhone 6+ (A8, M8) $299
iPhone 6 (A8, M8) $199
iPhone 5s (A7, M7) $99
iPhone 5c (A6) $0
Next up (IMO):
iPhone 6s+ (A9, M9) $299
iPhone 6s (A9, M9) $199
iPhone 6 (A8, M8) $99 (drop 6+)
iPhone 5s(c) (A7, M7) $0 (take 5s put in c form factor).
This makes the most sense. We shall see in September. I'm done.
(EDIT: added processors next to iPhone models)
Let me add:
Nope.
The 5 and 5C are not the same phone no matter how hard you try.
You said Apple always sells LAST YEARS FLAGSHIP for $100 less the next year. FALSE.
In 2013 they did not sell the iPhone5 for $100 less. They sold the 5C.
Quote from ifixit.com when doing the 5c teardown: "...the 5c is essentially a repackaged iPhone 5..."
https://www.ifixit.com/Teardown/iPhone+5c+Teardown/17382
https://www.ifixit.com/Teardown/iPhone+5+Teardown/10525
As I already stated, Apple repackaged the iPhone 5 as the 5c, that is why they dropped the 5. They both have A6 logic boards and function the same, just look different on the outside and the 5c has more LTE bands, (and a slightly larger battery), that is all. When it comes to the logic board, (which is where it counts), there are very little changes.
The 5c replaced the 5, both have the A6 processor, both functionally the same, both perform the same in tests.
The iPhone 5c took over the iPhone 5 slot.
Next up (IMO):
iPhone 6s+ (A9, M9) $299
iPhone 6s (A9, M9) $199
iPhone 6 (A8, M8) $99 (drop 6+)
iPhone 5s(c) (A7, M7) $0 (take 5s put in c form factor).
This makes the most sense. We shall see in September.
I agree this is the most logical thing to expect, as much as I want a new 4" phone.
The only caveat I would add is the mid-tier 6 might only be sold in only one or two colors. That would further distinguish it from the new 6S which may come in as many as 4 colors if rumors pan out.
In Sog's world it's not the same because one is aluminum and glass and the other is colored plastic. Sog is convinced if Apple takes the existing iPhone 6 and drops the price $100 fewer people will buy the 6S because the phones aesthetically look the same but one is cheaper. But it makes zero sense to have the mid tier phone be plastic but the low end aluminum and glass. So either both the mid tier and low end are plastic or the mid tier is just the current 6 but cheaper.
I'm with you in that the purpose of the C model was to eventually occupy the low end "free" slot in the lineup. I don't think Apple is worried that a cheaper 6 will cannibalize the 6S. If they are then either the 6S isn't a big enough upgrade and they know it, or they just need to get rid of the mid tier all together. Which they won't because going from $0 to $199 isn't an option. Honestly I think price drives what people buy. I'm not convinced just sticking something in a plastic case will get people to spend $100 more.
Look what Apple did when the 5S came out. That is the template for when the 6S comes out. For most people TouchID/A7 would not be enough reason to pay $100 for the 5S instead of the 5. That is why Apple got rid of the 5 and introduced the 5C.
To me TouchID is worth $100. But I'm not the common man. Most won't. Or are ignorant of how convient it is.
The current mid tier phone is metal because it is a totally different body style. iPhone6 is a totally different body style and larger screen so there was little threat that the 5S would cannibalize the 6.
Next year when the iPhone7 comes out I'm pretty sure we will see the 6S as the mid tier.
iPod/iPads are different animals than the iPhone. They don't sell enough of either to justify starting a whole new assembly line of plastic pods/pads.
We have not seen any leaks of a 6C because they are probably going to use the 5C case and stuff iPhone6 internals in it.
I don't think so; they would need to re-engineer practically the entire phone to "stuff" a 4.7" phone into a 4" case. they're not doing that. They're doing a new aluminum phone, 4" with 5S internals (6C)-perhaps aluminum in colors like the new-gen touch. Otherwise, no new 4" phone; just a 4" iPod touch.
Not really. Apple has now established a new benchmark for the "free" phone. It's a plastic case, and it's selling well. Continuing to sell the premium iPhone 5S as is for "free" sort of raises the bar that Apple has successfully lowered with the 5C. Also, it frees up a manufacturing facility currently milling metal 5S cases to continue making the 6, or whatever arrives as the mid-tier phone, without building more factories.
I believe that Apple clearly engineered the 5S to be transferred to the 5C at some point to reduce costs, and as such, there's no reason not to "rebadge" it, even if it only lasts another sales year, since it actually costs Apple less to make, as well as the other pluses I mentioned above, and a few I haven't thought of, I'm sure.
This is another wrong assessment: cheaper to make the phone case with re-enforced polycarbonate than metal. You forget one thing: 5S case was already designed and manufacturer's equipment configurations were already set up. Remember the chassis of 5S and 5C is not the same. That mean existing 5C case won't fit 5S components (screw positions, circuit board locations and such...). The cost of reconfiguring manufacturing equipment may just offset the BOM cost of metal-polycarbonate. Why would Apple want to do something that gives them zero benefit? 5SC is none sense since it doesn't differentiate itself from any current iPhone. 5 to 5C made sense because it differentiated itself from 5S.
I've been following Apple's trends for years, the problem is that too many people think the 5c is a totally new phone, when it is not. Look at my other comments...I'll write it again a little differently: iPhone 5 was Apple's first LTE iPhone, and it was unable to work in emerging markets because it had few LTE bands. They took the iPhone 5 internals, just as they were, except changed the LTE chip for one with more bands, put it in a different case, both of which were to make it more marketable in emerging markets, but, essentially, from an engineering and technical standpoint, the 5 & 5c are basically the same beast in different packaging. From a production standpoint, the internals cost more to re-engineer than a new case, thus the discontinuation of the 5 when the 5c began production. ...Some may even recall Apple making a minor change to the iPhone 5 in April 2013, new networking/cell chip for compatibility with T-Mobile. These kinds of changes keep the internals mostly intact, re-engineering costs low.
OK, for those that don't seem to remember (on contract prices):
iPhone 4s $199
iPhone 4 $99
iPhone 3gs $49/$0
iPhone 5 (A6) $199
iPhone 4s (A5) $99
iPhone 4 (A4) $49/$0
iPhone 5s (A7, M7) $199
iPhone 5c (A6) $99 (replaced iPhone 5, same internals except LTE chip, just a new look, and more LTE bands so it can sell in emerging markets)
iPhone 4s (A5) $0
iPhone 6+ (A8, M8) $299
iPhone 6 (A8, M8) $199
iPhone 5s (A7, M7) $99
iPhone 5c (A6) $0
Next up (IMO):
iPhone 6s+ (A9, M9) $299
iPhone 6s (A9, M9) $199
iPhone 6 (A8, M8) $99 (drop 6+)
iPhone 5s(c) (A7, M7) $0 (take 5s put in c form factor).
This makes the most sense. We shall see in September. I'm done.
(EDIT: added processors next to iPhone models)
I don't believe the last one. I bet that 5S will stay as it is this year. No reason/benefit to put it in plastic case.
In Sog's world it's not the same because one is aluminum and glass and the other is colored plastic. Sog is convinced if Apple takes the existing iPhone 6 and drops the price $100 fewer people will buy the 6S because the phones aesthetically look the same but one is cheaper. But it makes zero sense to have the mid tier phone be plastic but the low end aluminum and glass. So either both the mid tier and low end are plastic or the mid tier is just the current 6 but cheaper.
I'm with you in that the purpose of the C model was to eventually occupy the low end "free" slot in the lineup. I don't think Apple is worried that a cheaper 6 will cannibalize the 6S. If they are then either the 6S isn't a big enough upgrade and they know it, or they just need to get rid of the mid tier all together. Which they won't because going from $0 to $199 isn't an option. Honestly I think price drives what people buy. I'm not convinced just sticking something in a plastic case will get people to spend $100 more.
Sog's analysis resides with Sog. 6 is still not 6S no matter how hard he tries. People buying 6S are usually those who actually want 6S, not 6 and people who want cheaper mid range 6 would not get 6S anyway. That's why they wait for a year for the price to come down. I don't see cannibalization at all here. 6S fans know exactly what they will get (force touch, better camera, better chip, more RAM...) and will not settle for less on 6.
Maybe. I'm still not convinced the plastic phone was meant for the mid-tier long term. I think it was ultimately meant to occupy the low-tier "free on contract" phone. And it's possible it was just an experiment to see how the market would react.
Honestly I think it's a bit worrisome if the mid-tier stays plastic solely because Apple is worried not enough people would buy the flagship otherwise. Apple is not doing that in other product lines. Look at the new MacBook. Probably one of the most beautiful products Apple has ever designed. I think it's clear that will eventually become the entry level laptop in the lineup replacing the MBA. Apple didn't make it plastic for fear of cannibalizing the MBP. There is real product differentiation there. What you're suggesting is either Apple can't do that with the iPhone or the updates they're making aren't worth of the prices they're charging. Personally I think faster chip, 2GB RAM, better camera and force touch are worthy upgrades that will get consumers to choose the flagship over cheaper models.
I don't see Apple having two plastic iPhones in the line up (which would happen once the iPhone 7 came along).
I generally agree. Most people are on two-year contracts or two year payment plans. Many who upgraded in the past year did so to the 6/6+ from the 5. Those who have not upgraded yet will be upgrading to the 6S/6S+ from the 5S.
Some people are on S upgrade cycles, some are not. I suspect that 50% or more are on two year upgrade cycles give or take a few months. They will get the newest phone, i.e, likely are not interested in saving $100 to go down a level to save $100 bucks.
Having said that, I think that 30% upgrade number was current at that time (winter 2014), but the upgrade to 6/6+ may be approaching the 50% number I noted above.
Anecdotally, I see a lot more 6 and 6+ iPhones on the subway that I even did a few months ago.
In my view, one of Apple's chief concerns is how to maximize profits on and control the inventory of the SoC and the case.
Fall 2015 prices (on contract)
6S+ $299 (same 5.5" case/better camera/ForceTouch/A9 SoC)
6S $199 (same 4.7" case/better camera/ForceTouch/A9 SoC)
6 $99 (same 4.7" aluminum case/no gold option/no ForceTouch/same cameraA8 SoC)
6C $0 (same as colorful 4" aluminum iPod touch cases/iPod touch camera/A8 SoC)
Or, no 6C, just the iPod touch 4" iOS option (aluminum color cases/A8 SoC)
A7 SoCs go to Apple TVs, iPad mini 2s, etc. In other words, the 64 bit A7 becomes the new lowest end SoC (previously the A5) which is out the door.
I think the iPod touch signals that the plastic iPhone C case is on its way out. Why have a plastic 6C line when you could share a colorful aluminum production line with the iPod Touch? This also answers the question, why an iPod touch. Why not, if it is using the same components and case as the iPhone C series? The 4" phone will NEVER have the 4.7/5.5" phone specs.
What I think Sog35 doesn't understand is that at the end of the day Apple wants an overall close-to-40% margin on products. If one product has a somewhat lower margin, ok. Overall, you'll see 39% gross margins across the above iPhone/iPod product lines. This configuration also leaves a simple understandable lineup with no price umbrella for Android OEMs.
Where is 6C now? There would have been a case leak for this 4.7" 6C if there's actually one to be produced. My prediction: no new COLOR phone this year except Rose Gold flagships.
Its hiding in plain sight as the iPod touch.
Look what Apple did when the 5S came out. That is the template for when the 6S comes out. For most people TouchID/A7 would not be enough reason to pay $100 for the 5S instead of the 5. That is why Apple got rid of the 5 and introduced the 5C.
To me TouchID is worth $100. But I'm not the common man. Most won't. Or are ignorant of how convient it is.
Not only TouchID/A7, but camera (better pixel size, focal lens...), better camcorder (burst mode, slow motion). better/bigger battery. Again, I meant "S" version owners knew what they got and were willing to pay $100 more for it. I do too. If 6+S has force touch, more RAM, better camera beside new A9 chip, I want it over 6+ for $100 more regardless of the same cosmetic look.
I don't believe the last one. I bet that 5S will stay as it is this year. No reason/benefit to put it in plastic case.
Putting it in a modified colorful aluminum iPod touch case.
I don't think so. A $99 iPhone6 would canibalize the 6S.
People would ask what does the 6S have that the 6 doesn't? Faster chip, more ram, force touch. That's not going to be enough to convience most people to pay $100 more.
Wrong. Force Touch, A9 chip, 2GB of RAM, better camera are more than enough for $100 upgrade. When you say "people", you mean those who just want an iPhone, not caring about what's inside. Those are really minority. People want "S" version because they really want the performance with all the bugs sorted out of the "S" These will not settle for 6 because of $100.
Putting it in a modified colorful aluminum iPod touch case.
What's the benefit for that when they price will be the same if they keep 5S? They can do color metal case with ease, but what's for?