Very early in this thread I posted my thoughts on why Apple might create a new 4" iPhone 6 Mini to sit in the $100 discounted slot currently occupied by the 5S. But after reading through all the comments posted after mine, I have seen some very good arguments suggesting Apple won't go this route. So here is my current thinking, much of which has been influenced by what others here have written, but one point I'll make has not been mentioned here, which is that Apple is likely in the mode of very much going after the Android audience these days and that audience has traditionally been about larger screen phones.
I have fiends who reluctantly abandoned the iPhone over the years in favor of an Android phone, exclusively for the large display. Some just wanted it for the newer use cases that favor larger displays, while others needed the larger display for their aging eyes. And those folks are all now coming back to the larger screen iPhones.
From my own experience, it took my about two days to adjust to the size of the iphone 6, in terms of handling it, pocketing it, etc. Many operations, like casual scrolling through a document, flipping pages in an ebook, etc, are still easily done with one hand. While there are a number of actions that are not easily done single-handed, these are typically one-time actions (tapping an app or a menu command where you have to bring your extra hand into play) versus continuous actions like scrolling, etc. So the single-handed argument made by those who are still on the 4" or 3.5" form factors quickly fades when they realize that many common and continuous actions are still easily doable single-handed.
I don't hear a lot of people who have moved to the larger displays saying that they want to go back to the smaller displays. In fact, just the opposite; once you experience the larger display, you want nothing to do with the idea of going back. Individuals may disagree, but the market in aggregate, from all those who used Androids, to the tens of millions of iPhone 6/6+ owners, has spoken. Apple knows this and it implies something fundamental about what the iPhone line-up will be this fall.
I think it's generally agreed that an iPhone 6S and 6+S, under whatever name is assigned, will replace the 6/6+ as the two flagship models.
But what will be the $100 discounted model? There's the argument that Apple won't want to cannibalize sales of the flagships by offering the exiting iPhone 6 in its current skin, for $100 less. However, as some have argued, the engineering has already been amortized, and so the production lines can simply continue humming while Apple builds ahead to ensure no disruption in supplies, then switch some of those same production lines to focus on building 6S models to meet its demand once it's closer to release. And allowing it to cannibalize the 6S at its $100 discounted price really means that more price-sensitive Android owners who didn't step up this year might do so next year. The last thing you want to do is turn off this potential audience, craving for the prestige of an iPhone, but also wanting a large display, with a plastic-bodied version of the iPhone 6. So Apple's desire to expand it's attraction to the Android audience, against Samsung now building aluminum-bodied Galaxies, means the bar is raised and Apple will likely consider it a reasonable compromise to meet that bar, take a little cannibalization of the 6S by selling the exiting 6 at a discount to those more price-sensitive Android owners.
Now to the free-on-contract phone. First, let's talk about the iPod Touch update. It's not reasonable to assume the A8 board used in the new iPod Touch has exactly the same mounting points as the old A5 board in the outgoing iPods. So this implies Apple reworked the iPod Touch aluminum case to match the A8 system board, and perhaps other components like the updated camera. If Apple is willing to do that to the iPod Touch, a low volume product even when compared to the sales volumes of the free-on-contract iPhone model, any argument that Apple would not update the 5C plastic case to accept the 5S internals bears no weight. The free-on-contract iphone model is also the model that Apple sells in volume through its second tier carriers around the world, of which Apple has continued to sign up more and more. So this model is critical to the Apple brand around the world, but it's also important for Apple to protect its premium brand image as it begins to sell the newer iPhones into those same second tier markets. So I think Apple has multiple incentives to repackage the 5S in the plastic body. It allows Apple to continue to amortize the cost of engineering that body style as well as the cost of the manufacturing lines used to build it, it allows Apple to offload the aluminum machining production facilities, as someone here indicated, to deploy those machines on the higher priced models, and it allows Apple to sell iPhones into second tier markets while protecting the premium image of the higher priced iPhones, a key attractor to those in these markets who have the means to purchase the 6, 6S, or 6S+.
If you are correct than we won't see a plastic iPhone for the foreseeable future.
2015 - 6S/6/5S
2016 - 7/6S/6
That would be crazy. Being able to by the iPhone6 for $450 would be insane
Did I say 2016? I said Apple kept 5S unchanged until it's phased out meaning no Plastic phone in 2015. Who knows in 2016 line up? Maybe a rebadged 5S in lowest tier, maybe not.
BTW, Being able to buy a 2 years old iPhone 6 for $450 would NOT be insane because that's what happened so far on every iPhone model. What makes iPhone 6 different?
They could but they won't. Why? Because they don't release new design during mid-term refresh except rebadge. If it's 5S rebadge, it should not be called 6C, but New 5C imo. If there's a 6C ever, it'll be the new 6 design in Color Plastic or Metal chassis. The leak we saw online lately could be a refreshed 5C with new camera, light, Touch ID (may be)...well, sort of 5S rebadge and let it live another year in low tier while 5S gets killed in Sep 2015. Maybe that was the plan until Apple killed it lately.
To be frank, I quite liked the idea of the C-series: Update an existing outgoing model with new internals and an unapologetic plastic durable shell.
Finally, as an erratum to this thread:
If the 5S is going to get the C treatment, then its name should be '5CS' and not '6C'. '6C' suggests a C treatment of the iPhone 6, which is not going to be the case. Allegedly.
I think Apple should not repackage the 5S in plastic. It would be a total waste of time and expense especially since a $199 iPod will have superior CPU.
I think the solution is to package the iPhone6 in a 4.7 inch plastic shell and place the 5S as the bottom tier.
So in Sept:
6S $199
6C $99 - iPhone6 in plastic, 4.7 inch screen
5S $0
5C - limited to India and other emerging markets
The idea of the 5C was to offset the high production cost of the 5 with an unapologetic plastic shell. I imagine the 5S (with Touch ID) to have an even higher production cost. Colour me surprised if Apple would sell the 5S at a loss.
It'd be more logic to give the 5S a C treatment with an updated A8/M8 processor from the outgoing iPhone 6.
So here's the line-up:
6S+
6S
5CS
Notice how the names are getting a bit silly. Why not: iPhone +, iPhone and iPhone mini?
The problem with your solution is Apple will not take all the effort into putting the 5S in a plastic shell only to discontinue it after 1 year. Next year the lowest tier will be an iPhone6 or plastic iPhone6. Would they go through all that trouble for one year?
I don't think production cost for the 5S is a problem at this point. By now they probably mastered it and also so few 5S will be sold anyway. The 5S will be in its THIRD year of production so I doubt they will be losing money selling it at $450.
It make sense to have a plastic iPhone6 as the mid-range because they will be able to use the 6C as part of the lineup for 2 years (just like the 5C) and an additional year in emerging markets.
My bet is on the 5CS. Mind you, the A8/M8 chips will put the 5CS firmly in the market for at least two years.
Here's two more arguments in favour of the 5CS:
No retooling required: The rear shell of the 5CS (see pictures) is very similar to the 5C.
Differentiation: the 4 inch 5CS is smaller than the 4.7 inch iPhone 6.
It is a mystery why Apple would abandon this route? Everything is already there.
My bet is on the 5CS. Mind you, the A8/M8 chips will put the 5CS firmly in the market for at least two years.
Here's two more arguments in favour of the 5CS:
No retooling required: The rear shell of the 5CS (see pictures) is very similar to the 5C.
Differentiation: the 4 inch 5CS is smaller than the 4.7 inch iPhone 6.
It is a mystery why Apple would abandon this route? Everything is already there.
Yes you are absolutely right. This is likely what's going to happen. Apple probably engineered the 5S and 5C for this exact scenario. Very little work to do here. And it gives their 5C design another year of life, which otherwise would make the 5C the shortest lived design since the original iPhone. My guess is that they will actually do to the 5S what they did to the iPod Touch and update the internals next year to essentially boost it up to the iPhone 6 with a 5" screen and keep it around another year. That's ultimately cheaper than milling a metal case for the iPhone 6 with a larger screen and giving it away for free.
I also believe Apple engineered the 6 in three sizes, built prototypes for all three to test them. So, with the 5S moved into a plastic case, that frees up a metal milling factory which would make them ready to put the 4" 6 into production almost immediately, without any kind of supply chain ramp-up. They're already ordering 4" screens for the 5S, 5C and iPod Touch, so what if the iPod Touch was just a smoke screen to mask the supply chain ramp up for the 4" 6? This assumes when Apple upgraded the Touch internals they made similar modifications to the 4" 6. So it's really the 6C that subsidizes the iPod Touch (which otherwise doesn't make a lot of sense).
Except in absolute numbers Apple is selling more iPhones than ever.
Year over year Apple has always sold more iPhones. I even think it was a very good business idea to make a larger iPhone for the people who clearly wanted one. What annoys me is that at the same time the 4 inch phone was dropped. I have no problem with folks who insist on an iPad mini with cellphone capability but I want a real iPhone. Until then the new iPod touch is a nice proxy for what I would otherwise buy.
The problem with your solution is Apple will not take all the effort into putting the 5S in a plastic shell only to discontinue it after 1 year. Next year the lowest tier will be an iPhone6 or plastic iPhone6. Would they go through all that trouble for one year?
I don't think production cost for the 5S is a problem at this point. By now they probably mastered it and also so few 5S will be sold anyway. The 5S will be in its THIRD year of production so I doubt they will be losing money selling it at $450.
It make sense to have a plastic iPhone6 as the mid-range because they will be able to use the 6C as part of the lineup for 2 years (just like the 5C) and an additional year in emerging markets.
the first time in months I fucking agree with your assessment.
Yes you are absolutely right. This is likely what's going to happen. Apple probably engineered the 5S and 5C for this exact scenario. Very little work to do here. And it gives their 5C design another year of life, which otherwise would make the 5C the shortest lived design since the original iPhone. My guess is that they will actually do to the 5S what they did to the iPod Touch and update the internals next year to essentially boost it up to the iPhone 6 with a 5" screen and keep it around another year. That's ultimately cheaper than milling a metal case for the iPhone 6 with a larger screen and giving it away for free.
I also believe Apple engineered the 6 in three sizes, built prototypes for all three to test them. So, with the 5S moved into a plastic case, that frees up a metal milling factory which would make them ready to put the 4" 6 into production almost immediately, without any kind of supply chain ramp-up. They're already ordering 4" screens for the 5S, 5C and iPod Touch, so what if the iPod Touch was just a smoke screen to mask the supply chain ramp up for the 4" 6? This assumes when Apple upgraded the Touch internals they made similar modifications to the 4" 6. So it's really the 6C that subsidizes the iPod Touch (which otherwise doesn't make a lot of sense).
i doubt it. Won't be 5SC whatever. If Apple will upgrade the chip, it may not be A8, but A9, and they go straight to 4" 6C (color metal or plastic) and price it at mid tier. There you have current 4.7" A8 iPhone 6 and 4" A9 iPhone 6C at mid tier...choices for users.
I'd hate to not have a 5s form factor choice. I was reluctant to go from 4s to 5s, and the likeliness for me to go to a 6/6s form factor is smaller yet. It just won't fit in my pant pocket comfortably.
I'm willing to pay the same amount of money for a 4 inch version of the "flagship" phone with a larger screen.
For larger screen size and more elaborate tasks I use an iPad Air2.
Fingers crossed Apple hears the minority we are part of.
Agree totally. A "one-handed", fully-featured iPhone would have a large impact on the 70+% of iPhone owners who have not switched to the larger sizes. The pricing issues are a bit tricky, but Apple is slowing replacement cycles w/o a compact iPhone option.
Apple does this every time they come out with a new iPhone, last year's model goes down $100. Look it up. :rolleyes:
BTW, it doesn't actually cost $99, that is on contract, when you buy any phone on contract, the provider pays the phone manufacturer subsidies, unless you go with T-Mobile and pay for your iPhone, then when it's paid, your bill goes down the amount of your payment. The actual cost of the iPhone 6 starts at $649, 6+ $749, so $100 less is $549. What does the iPhone 5s cost? $549. What did it cost last year? $649.
Comments
Very early in this thread I posted my thoughts on why Apple might create a new 4" iPhone 6 Mini to sit in the $100 discounted slot currently occupied by the 5S. But after reading through all the comments posted after mine, I have seen some very good arguments suggesting Apple won't go this route. So here is my current thinking, much of which has been influenced by what others here have written, but one point I'll make has not been mentioned here, which is that Apple is likely in the mode of very much going after the Android audience these days and that audience has traditionally been about larger screen phones.
I have fiends who reluctantly abandoned the iPhone over the years in favor of an Android phone, exclusively for the large display. Some just wanted it for the newer use cases that favor larger displays, while others needed the larger display for their aging eyes. And those folks are all now coming back to the larger screen iPhones.
From my own experience, it took my about two days to adjust to the size of the iphone 6, in terms of handling it, pocketing it, etc. Many operations, like casual scrolling through a document, flipping pages in an ebook, etc, are still easily done with one hand. While there are a number of actions that are not easily done single-handed, these are typically one-time actions (tapping an app or a menu command where you have to bring your extra hand into play) versus continuous actions like scrolling, etc. So the single-handed argument made by those who are still on the 4" or 3.5" form factors quickly fades when they realize that many common and continuous actions are still easily doable single-handed.
I don't hear a lot of people who have moved to the larger displays saying that they want to go back to the smaller displays. In fact, just the opposite; once you experience the larger display, you want nothing to do with the idea of going back. Individuals may disagree, but the market in aggregate, from all those who used Androids, to the tens of millions of iPhone 6/6+ owners, has spoken. Apple knows this and it implies something fundamental about what the iPhone line-up will be this fall.
I think it's generally agreed that an iPhone 6S and 6+S, under whatever name is assigned, will replace the 6/6+ as the two flagship models.
But what will be the $100 discounted model? There's the argument that Apple won't want to cannibalize sales of the flagships by offering the exiting iPhone 6 in its current skin, for $100 less. However, as some have argued, the engineering has already been amortized, and so the production lines can simply continue humming while Apple builds ahead to ensure no disruption in supplies, then switch some of those same production lines to focus on building 6S models to meet its demand once it's closer to release. And allowing it to cannibalize the 6S at its $100 discounted price really means that more price-sensitive Android owners who didn't step up this year might do so next year. The last thing you want to do is turn off this potential audience, craving for the prestige of an iPhone, but also wanting a large display, with a plastic-bodied version of the iPhone 6. So Apple's desire to expand it's attraction to the Android audience, against Samsung now building aluminum-bodied Galaxies, means the bar is raised and Apple will likely consider it a reasonable compromise to meet that bar, take a little cannibalization of the 6S by selling the exiting 6 at a discount to those more price-sensitive Android owners.
Now to the free-on-contract phone. First, let's talk about the iPod Touch update. It's not reasonable to assume the A8 board used in the new iPod Touch has exactly the same mounting points as the old A5 board in the outgoing iPods. So this implies Apple reworked the iPod Touch aluminum case to match the A8 system board, and perhaps other components like the updated camera. If Apple is willing to do that to the iPod Touch, a low volume product even when compared to the sales volumes of the free-on-contract iPhone model, any argument that Apple would not update the 5C plastic case to accept the 5S internals bears no weight. The free-on-contract iphone model is also the model that Apple sells in volume through its second tier carriers around the world, of which Apple has continued to sign up more and more. So this model is critical to the Apple brand around the world, but it's also important for Apple to protect its premium brand image as it begins to sell the newer iPhones into those same second tier markets. So I think Apple has multiple incentives to repackage the 5S in the plastic body. It allows Apple to continue to amortize the cost of engineering that body style as well as the cost of the manufacturing lines used to build it, it allows Apple to offload the aluminum machining production facilities, as someone here indicated, to deploy those machines on the higher priced models, and it allows Apple to sell iPhones into second tier markets while protecting the premium image of the higher priced iPhones, a key attractor to those in these markets who have the means to purchase the 6, 6S, or 6S+.
How much money do you want to put on that?
If you are correct than we won't see a plastic iPhone for the foreseeable future.
2015 - 6S/6/5S
2016 - 7/6S/6
That would be crazy. Being able to by the iPhone6 for $450 would be insane
Did I say 2016? I said Apple kept 5S unchanged until it's phased out meaning no Plastic phone in 2015. Who knows in 2016 line up? Maybe a rebadged 5S in lowest tier, maybe not.
BTW, Being able to buy a 2 years old iPhone 6 for $450 would NOT be insane because that's what happened so far on every iPhone model. What makes iPhone 6 different?
How do you know?
They could easily release an iPhone 6C in Sept
They could but they won't. Why? Because they don't release new design during mid-term refresh except rebadge. If it's 5S rebadge, it should not be called 6C, but New 5C imo. If there's a 6C ever, it'll be the new 6 design in Color Plastic or Metal chassis. The leak we saw online lately could be a refreshed 5C with new camera, light, Touch ID (may be)...well, sort of 5S rebadge and let it live another year in low tier while 5S gets killed in Sep 2015. Maybe that was the plan until Apple killed it lately.
Edit: All above comments meant to 4" version.
We are getting a plastic iPhone6 in September.
Makes too much sense.
What about 2 more weeks ban, bet? I say there's no Plastic 6 in Sep.
To be frank, I quite liked the idea of the C-series: Update an existing outgoing model with new internals and an unapologetic plastic durable shell.
Finally, as an erratum to this thread:
If the 5S is going to get the C treatment, then its name should be '5CS' and not '6C'. '6C' suggests a C treatment of the iPhone 6, which is not going to be the case. Allegedly.
I think Apple should not repackage the 5S in plastic. It would be a total waste of time and expense especially since a $199 iPod will have superior CPU.
I think the solution is to package the iPhone6 in a 4.7 inch plastic shell and place the 5S as the bottom tier.
So in Sept:
6S $199
6C $99 - iPhone6 in plastic, 4.7 inch screen
5S $0
5C - limited to India and other emerging markets
The idea of the 5C was to offset the high production cost of the 5 with an unapologetic plastic shell. I imagine the 5S (with Touch ID) to have an even higher production cost. Colour me surprised if Apple would sell the 5S at a loss.
It'd be more logic to give the 5S a C treatment with an updated A8/M8 processor from the outgoing iPhone 6.
So here's the line-up:
Notice how the names are getting a bit silly. Why not: iPhone +, iPhone and iPhone mini?
The problem with your solution is Apple will not take all the effort into putting the 5S in a plastic shell only to discontinue it after 1 year. Next year the lowest tier will be an iPhone6 or plastic iPhone6. Would they go through all that trouble for one year?
I don't think production cost for the 5S is a problem at this point. By now they probably mastered it and also so few 5S will be sold anyway. The 5S will be in its THIRD year of production so I doubt they will be losing money selling it at $450.
It make sense to have a plastic iPhone6 as the mid-range because they will be able to use the 6C as part of the lineup for 2 years (just like the 5C) and an additional year in emerging markets.
My bet is on the 5CS. Mind you, the A8/M8 chips will put the 5CS firmly in the market for at least two years.
Here's two more arguments in favour of the 5CS:
It is a mystery why Apple would abandon this route? Everything is already there.
My bet is on the 5CS. Mind you, the A8/M8 chips will put the 5CS firmly in the market for at least two years.
Here's two more arguments in favour of the 5CS:
It is a mystery why Apple would abandon this route? Everything is already there.
Yes you are absolutely right. This is likely what's going to happen. Apple probably engineered the 5S and 5C for this exact scenario. Very little work to do here. And it gives their 5C design another year of life, which otherwise would make the 5C the shortest lived design since the original iPhone. My guess is that they will actually do to the 5S what they did to the iPod Touch and update the internals next year to essentially boost it up to the iPhone 6 with a 5" screen and keep it around another year. That's ultimately cheaper than milling a metal case for the iPhone 6 with a larger screen and giving it away for free.
I also believe Apple engineered the 6 in three sizes, built prototypes for all three to test them. So, with the 5S moved into a plastic case, that frees up a metal milling factory which would make them ready to put the 4" 6 into production almost immediately, without any kind of supply chain ramp-up. They're already ordering 4" screens for the 5S, 5C and iPod Touch, so what if the iPod Touch was just a smoke screen to mask the supply chain ramp up for the 4" 6? This assumes when Apple upgraded the Touch internals they made similar modifications to the 4" 6. So it's really the 6C that subsidizes the iPod Touch (which otherwise doesn't make a lot of sense).
Year over year Apple has always sold more iPhones. I even think it was a very good business idea to make a larger iPhone for the people who clearly wanted one. What annoys me is that at the same time the 4 inch phone was dropped. I have no problem with folks who insist on an iPad mini with cellphone capability but I want a real iPhone. Until then the new iPod touch is a nice proxy for what I would otherwise buy.
A well connected secret agent analyst de confirms a confirmed rumor he previously confirmed.
Well said
I'm willing to pay the same amount of money for a 4 inch version of the "flagship" phone with a larger screen.
For larger screen size and more elaborate tasks I use an iPad Air2.
Fingers crossed Apple hears the minority we are part of.
Agree totally. A "one-handed", fully-featured iPhone would have a large impact on the 70+% of iPhone owners who have not switched to the larger sizes. The pricing issues are a bit tricky, but Apple is slowing replacement cycles w/o a compact iPhone option.
http://9to5google.com/2015/08/07/verizon-simpler-plans/
(that's one way to get around the blockade)