Conventional watch sales slide after Apple Watch launch, NPD says

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  • Reply 21 of 144
    cnocbuicnocbui Posts: 3,613member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tmay View Post

     

    "U.S. watch sales fell the most in seven years in June, one of the first signs Apple Inc.’s watch is eroding demand for traditional timepieces.

    Retailers sold $375 million of watches during the month, 11 percent less than in June 2014, according to data from NPD Group. The 14 percent decline in unit sales was the largest since 2008, according to Fred Levin, head of the market researcher’s luxury division."

    So May and June were both down; hence the connection with the Apple watch sales. Presumably, some of those are Swiss Brands.

    I'm pretty sure that you are, as usual, full of it.




    You seem to have slightly missed the fact that I have only made commentary on the sale of Swiss Watches.

  • Reply 22 of 144
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 13,002member

    I also wonder how many people are just not buying a traditional watch now because they are saving for an Apple Watch or just the thought of buying something now when waiting a few months could allow them them to choose form a whole new generation of smart watches making dropping a few hundred bucks on a quartz watch seem like a waste of money.

    When the first iPad came out I didn't rush out and buy one. I actually didn't buy one until the iPad 2 was released. But In the meantime I didn't go out and buy a netbook either. 

    I agree, and I seem to recall just about every Apple iOS device had as slow start including the iPhone itself and Steven even said he'd see 1% market share as financially worth while, I bet a similar figure is true for watches.

    By the way I hear Apple is working on a wedding, nose, and engagement rings as well as earnings, pendants and necklaces that are fully functional iOS devices using Siri. ;)

    All except the iPad but because it entered an almost non existential market.
  • Reply 23 of 144
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,516member
    bkkcanuck wrote: »
    When you get a luxury watch you get a product that most likely will last you a lifetime....  and they tend to appreciate over the period.  An Apple watch is a consumable good - it will likely have a limited lifespan after which you will have to go out and buy the new version.... completely different markets.
    Of note a smart-watch scheduled to debut later this year from one of the Swiss companies will have replaceable digital cores allowing hardware updates for the watch you bought. No need to buy a brand-new one to get new features or faster hardware.
  • Reply 24 of 144
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,528member
    gatorguy wrote: »
    bkkcanuck wrote: »
    When you get a luxury watch you get a product that most likely will last you a lifetime....  and they tend to appreciate over the period.  An Apple watch is a consumable good - it will likely have a limited lifespan after which you will have to go out and buy the new version.... completely different markets.
    Of note a smart-watch scheduled to debut later this year from one of the Swiss companies will have replaceable digital cores allowing hardware updates for the watch you bought. No need to buy a brand-new one to get new features or faster hardware.

    Android?
  • Reply 26 of 144
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,577moderator
    gatorguy wrote: »
    Of course they can. There's companies already working on them. Kairos, Tag Heuer, Bulgari. . .

    Really? A mechanical movement that I can set to alert me to all my appointments? That seems all but impossible.
  • Reply 27 of 144
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,577moderator
    bkkcanuck wrote: »
    When you get a luxury watch you get a product that most likely will last you a lifetime....  and they tend to appreciate over the period.  An Apple watch is a consumable good - it will likely have a limited lifespan after which you will have to go out and buy the new version.... completely different markets.

    There's a counter argument here. For the price of a mechanical watch that will truly last me a lifetime, I might be able to get a lifetime's worth of smartwatches. $7000 in today's dollars on that luxury watch would buy a whole series of Apple Watch Sports editions, with each used for two or three years before selling it on and using the proceeds, plus a bit of cash out of pocket, to upgrade to the newest version. I'm strongly confident that after a few generations you'll be so hooked and the tech will be so great and so perfectly fitting to your wrist that the thought of having bought that luxury mechanical watch will provoke a shutter down your spine.
  • Reply 28 of 144
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,516member
    Really? A mechanical movement that I can set to alert me to all my appointments? That seems all but impossible.
    Kind of a hybrid. Mechanical movement with an additional digital component. This link is an example of how it might work:
    https://kairoswatches.com/
  • Reply 29 of 144
    am8449am8449 Posts: 376member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by bkkcanuck View Post

     

    When you get a luxury watch you get a product that most likely will last you a lifetime....  and they tend to appreciate over the period.  An Apple watch is a consumable good - it will likely have a limited lifespan after which you will have to go out and buy the new version.... completely different markets.


    Whether the Apple Watch is a consumable good is still up for debate, I think.

     

    Although I can imagine buyers of the regular and sport editions upgrading as often as their iPhones, but I have a hard time believing that someone spending over $10k on an edition doing the same, or even viewing it as a consumable good.

     

    Btw, are you a buyer of luxury watches?

  • Reply 30 of 144
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RadarTheKat View Post





    There's a counter argument here. For the price of a mechanical watch that will truly last me a lifetime, I might be able to get a lifetime's worth of smartwatches. $7000 in today's dollars on that luxury watch would buy a whole series of Apple Watch Sports editions, with each used for two or three years before selling it on and using the proceeds, plus a bit of cash out of pocket, to upgrade to the newest version. I'm strongly confident that after a few generations you'll be so hooked and the tech will be so great and so perfectly fitting to your wrist that the thought of having bought that luxury mechanical watch will provoke a shutter down your spine.

    And all of those will be worthless, but the luxury watch will be still holding its value and in many cases -- worth more than the purchase price.  As you said - they are disposable watches.... 

  • Reply 31 of 144

    Retired my Seiko Diver's watch.

  • Reply 32 of 144
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,825member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post





    Of course they can. There's companies already working on them. Kairos, Tag Heuer, Bulgari. . .

    This might prevent leakage of high end customers to Apple Watch, but it does little for the lower tier brands that will have to compete against smartwatches.

  • Reply 33 of 144
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,516member
    tmay wrote: »
    This might prevent leakage of high end customers to Apple Watch, but it does little for the lower tier brands that will have to compete against smartwatches.
    Agreed
  • Reply 34 of 144
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by am8449 View Post

     

    Whether the Apple Watch is a consumable good is still up for debate, I think.

     

    Although I can imagine buyers of the regular and sport editions upgrading as often as their iPhones, but I have a hard time believing that someone spending over $10k on an edition doing the same, or even viewing it as a consumable good.

     

    Btw, are you a buyer of luxury watches?


    Not a buyer - but I do have friends that own them and relatives.....  I asked my friend if his watch was worth it... and he said it was the one of the only "investments" that he has purchased that has gone up in value (with the exception of the land/house he lives in Singapore).  I also have family that have the same watch now that they purchased 50 years ago.  

     

    Me, well the longest I have owned a watch period is 3 days.... I don't know how well they are made, they are not going to survive me :p

  • Reply 35 of 144
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,825member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post





    Of note a smart-watch scheduled to debut later this year from one of the Swiss companies will have replaceable digital cores allowing hardware updates for the watch you bought. No need to buy a brand-new one to get new features or faster hardware.

    Of course, Apple and all Android manufacturers could do the same if they wanted for their higher end watches. The real issue is what UI compromises high end watch customers will accept for the addition of smart features.

     

    Not seeing the traditional watchmakers doing anything but holding the line at the high end. Maybe that is enough, but if consumer styles shifts towards smartwatches, it won't be much of a salvation.

  • Reply 36 of 144
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Ignomini View Post



    From this article, I get the impression traditional watch sales are only one million per month. Even if that's US only sales, that's tiny. Why would Apple pursue so small a market? Oh, and if apple only sells a million a month (considered a disaster by pundits), that's a doubling of watch sales in general, and suddenly fifty percent of the market. What did I miss?



    You missed the fact that this is the first inning of a nine-inning game.  Smartwatches are a relatively small but young market that Apple believes will explode eventually.  Apple wants to be in the driver's seat when it does.  Not unlike the music player market prior to iPod.  All the ? Watch needs is more useful apps (and associated use cases) and some yearly iterative improvements to hardware and software.  I think it's pretty clear that in time smartwatches will be a large market.

     

    To mix my sports metaphors, Apple is skating to where they think the puck is going to be.

     

    Slightly off-topic, I think it's brilliant that Apple is not publicizing the unit sales number for the ? Watch.  If the numbers are disappointing (which obviously some people are assuming) then staying mum is good.  If they are not disappointing, then crowing about it would only cause competitors to dive into the market with wild abandon.  Some are not really sure whether to dive or not.  Others, who already have flopped with their smartwatch offerings, would work harder to emulate Apple's design choices (hardware and software) if they knew the ? Watch was a homerun.  With the media portraying it too as a flop, I think that a lot of companies are frozen with uncertainty.

     

    Well played, Apple, well played.

  • Reply 37 of 144
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 13,002member
    thompr wrote: »
    ignomini wrote: »
    From this article, I get the impression traditional watch sales are only one million per month. Even if that's US only sales, that's tiny. Why would Apple pursue so small a market? Oh, and if apple only sells a million a month (considered a disaster by pundits), that's a doubling of watch sales in general, and suddenly fifty percent of the market. What did I miss?
    You missed the fact that this is the first inning of a nine-inning game.

    Bad metaphor, because it suggests that the game of business has an end.
  • Reply 38 of 144
    nolamacguynolamacguy Posts: 4,758member
    sinus tree wrote: »
    Could it be that people considering a new watch waited to see what the Apple Watch was all about? Statistics don't tell the whole story.

    the story isn't about why. it's about what.
  • Reply 39 of 144
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by tmay View Post

     

    This might prevent leakage of high end customers to Apple Watch, but it does little for the lower tier brands that will have to compete against smartwatches.


     

    Plus those luxury watches have to use Android, or something like that and are massively clunky: they are HUGE!

    Their software and electronics expertise is near zero

    (though they have a lot of materials, mechanical and industrial engineering expertise, but must of this applies mostly to their traditional watch internals).

     

    The watches are not made for a woman and even most men.

    They need to do much better than that before Apple really eat their lunch in about 2-3 years.

    Right now, it is just the beginning.

     

    The problem also is if you adjunct electronics and software to your watch, well you're no more "timeless" than Apple; you have to keep up or become obsolete. You come to play almost exactly were Apple can kick your ass hard! They're almost in a no win situation.

     

    I think the very high end mechanical will survive, some of the high end hybrids too, but bellow 2.5K, it will be utter destruction for those makers.  Apple, will eat a huge part of the profits leaving them as a small niche of a bigger market (the fact the market as a whole will be bigger is what will enable them to survive).

  • Reply 40 of 144
    nolamacguynolamacguy Posts: 4,758member
    cnocbui wrote: »
    They might be sliding in the US, but the predicted negative impact on Swiss watchmakers does not appear to have happened.  Their sales have actually increased slightly, which is astonishing given the recent severe appreciation in the value of the Franc.
    https://www.firstclasswatches.co.uk/blog/2015/06/has-the-apple-watch-affected-the-swiss-watchmakers/

    first off, nobody can confirm that Ive said that, at all. it's an anonymous quote.

    second, the damage to the watch industry won't be overnight. duh. see the digital camera market decline.
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