Conventional watch sales slide after Apple Watch launch, NPD says

123457

Comments

  • Reply 121 of 144

    Additionally, the ?watch adds to the Apple ecosystem, adding more reason to buy into the experience .....

    THIS is the critical point that the Androider trolls here (and elsewhere) never get. And why the Tag Heuers et al too will fail miserably. This is despite some of them claiming (e.g., Gatorguy's posts) that it will work with iOS, to which I say "bs."
  • Reply 122 of 144
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,824member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post





    THIS is the critical point that the Androider trolls here (and elsewhere) never get. And why the Tag Heuers et al too will fail miserably. This is despite some of them claiming (e.g., Gatorguy's posts) that it will work with iOS, to which I say "bs."

    It is quite likely that it will work with iOS, or an iOS app at least somewhat, but not at all, never at all, with the Watch App. People will know and understand the difference, but again, this is about the under $1000 market, not the high end anyway.

     

    Gatorguy is trying to portray this as the Swiss watch makers having the equivalent of the Apple Watch, or even Android Wearable; it may be that they have plans "to be delivered in October or November!" but it is unlikely that they will have a finished product at the level of Apple's 2nd generation watch OS any time soon.

     

    Either way, there will be leakage away from the mechanical watches that a hybrid may stem, but otherwise, does anybody really care if the Swiss watch brands get decimated in the under $1000 class? The Swiss Watch Industry only has to worry if style shifts to the smartwatch paradigm.

     

    ***

    I machine/make stuff for a living, and my training is in Mechanical Engineering. I appreciate the level of effort that goes into making mechanical watches, but I'm not impressed generally with the perceived status of wearing these watches, or the assumed value real and heirloom. My mileage varied.

     

    On the other hand, I just purchased a few more pieces of equipment; a 20 inch Felder Jointer, and a 5 foot x 10 foot CNC router.

     

    To make more and different stuff for another 30 years or so until I expire.

  • Reply 123 of 144
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,508member
    tmay wrote: »
    It is quite likely that it will work with iOS, or an iOS app at least somewhat, but not at all, never at all, with the Watch App. People will know and understand the difference, but again, this is about the under $1000 market, not the high end anyway.

    Gatorguy is trying to portray this as the Swiss watch makers having the equivalent of the Apple Watch, or even Android Wearable;
    Then you should read what I wrote again. Not what I said or even implied. My point was that the Swiss watchmakers are looking at combining some of the most used connected features such as basic notifications and health/fitness with their classic traditional and/or fashion designs. They aren't trying to be communication devices or app repositories like wearables from the techs, which is the right way to do it if they are going to IMHO. Maybe they can't out-tech the techs, remember? You commented in that thread

    Some here were completely unaware of what the old guard watchmakers were doing based on comments. I'm a little surprised you misread it as you did and ascribed a flawed translation to what I posted.
  • Reply 124 of 144
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,824member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post





    Then you should read what I wrote again. Not what I said or even implied. My point was that the Swiss watchmakers are looking at combining some of the most used connected features such as basic notifications and health/fitness with their classic traditional and/or fashion designs. Maybe they can't out-tech the techs, remember?



    Some here were completely unaware of that based on comments. I'm a little surprised you misread it as you did and ascribed a flawed translation to what I posted.

    I'm not surprised that you keep talking about a market that is not being, for the most part, directly contested by smartwatches. Like I have stated, the Swiss and hybrids is all about preventing leakage of buyers in the higher brackets; its prudent and defensive, but it won't add any buyers.

     

    Apple and Android wearables will be converting watch buyers in the lower end of the market and adding buyers that haven't ever worn a watch. That is a bracket the the Swiss will likely lose, but I doubt that it will have much effect on the high end mechanical watch market. In the context of the OP, hybrids aren't really relevant to the discussion.

  • Reply 125 of 144
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,508member
    tmay wrote: »
    I'm not surprised that you keep talking about a market that is not being, for the most part, directly contested by smartwatches. Like I have stated, the Swiss and hybrids is all about preventing leakage of buyers in the higher brackets; its prudent and defensive, but it won't add any buyers.

    Apple and Android wearables will be converting watch buyers in the lower end of the market and adding buyers that haven't ever worn a watch. That is a bracket the the Swiss will likely lose, but I doubt that it will have much effect on the high end mechanical watch market. In the context of the OP, hybrids aren't really relevant to the discussion.
    I agree with you. Hybrid watches and tech wearables will probably have appeal to different market segments and use cases. One doesn't negate the market for the other IMO.

    I only commented after others had already begun the discussion of the Swiss watchmakers and "what was going to happen". I didn't introduce the subject, simply commented on what was already being said.
  • Reply 126 of 144
    bkkcanuckbkkcanuck Posts: 862member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post





    Then you should read what I wrote again. Not what I said or even implied. My point was that the Swiss watchmakers are looking at combining some of the most used connected features such as basic notifications and health/fitness with their classic traditional and/or fashion designs. Maybe they can't out-tech the techs, remember?



    Some here were completely unaware of that based on comments. I'm a little surprised you misread it as you did and ascribed a flawed translation to what I posted.

     

    Not every watch needs to be a smart watch.  I would bet the majority of Apple Watch purchasers were NOT watch wearers to begin with.  The iPhone/smart phone really decimated the younger generation's interest in watches... the utility of it was served by pulling out your phone and looking at the time.  The Apple watch crowd (the early adopters) is likely more interested in it because of its neat gadget features and is meeting some niche needs (sports functionality) ... with potential for more business adopters later. 

     

    The people that buy watches now tend to be more established, more senior....  I doubt the Swiss will en-mass start going out and manufacturing Android watches (which I think we agree) -- it would be a mistake turning a "masterpiece of craftsmanship" into a rather disposable techie device since that is not what a majority of their buyers would be interested in.  

     

    I won't be in the market for either - I just hate having things on my wrist....  but I do see two very distinct markets with two distinct clientele -- with a very limited overlap.  

     

    I will stick with my iPhone... which BTW, I don't even use as a Phone (I hate talking on phones - only use Skype/Hangouts now).  I just tell people send me a message or email and if we really need to talk then I will answer then.... but phone me without messaging me and I will not answer.   (I also use it as a glorified modem). 

  • Reply 127 of 144
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,508member
    bkkcanuck wrote: »
    .  

    I will stick with my iPhone... which BTW, I don't even use as a Phone (I hate talking on phones - only use Skype/Hangouts now).  I just tell people send me a message or email and if we really need to talk then I will answer then.... but phone me without messaging me and I will not answer.   (I also use it as a glorified modem). 
    My daughter and son won't either, but text 'em and i'll get an immediate reply. I don't really get it since a quick call could save multiple texts (and some number of misunderstandings) but whatever. It's a generational thing.
  • Reply 128 of 144
    bkkcanuckbkkcanuck Posts: 862member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post





    My daughter and son won't either, but text 'em and i'll get an immediate reply. I don't really get it since a quick call could save multiple texts (and some number of misunderstandings) but whatever. It's a generational thing.

     

    My case is simple..... mothertongue is not the same and I find phone only makes the situation much much worse -- and I don't know why.   Either case I am an introvert and often get tired of talking to people out of the blue without getting prepared for a change of environment....  If I go to the office (which I have not for 5 years since it is now 12 timezones away) I have no problem chatting with people but I think it is the transition I need.

     

    BTW, I might be older than your children - 51.

  • Reply 129 of 144
    tmay wrote: »

    On the other hand, I just purchased a few more pieces of equipment; a 20 inch Felder Jointer, and a 5 foot x 10 foot CNC router.

    To make more and different stuff for another 30 years or so until I expire.

    Now, that is some real stuff, requiring real skill! I envy you.
  • Reply 130 of 144
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,508member
    bkkcanuck wrote: »
    BTW, I might be older than your children - 51.
    :err: Why yes you are. I would have pegged you as much younger as you probably guessed.
  • Reply 131 of 144
    bkkcanuck wrote: »

    I would bet the majority of Apple Watch purchasers were NOT watch wearers to begin with.  The iPhone/smart phone really decimated the younger generation's interest in watches... The Apple watch crowd (the early adopters) is likely more interested in it because of its neat gadget features and is meeting some niche needs (sports functionality) ... with potential for more business adopters later. 

    The people that buy watches now tend to be more established, more senior.. .... rather disposable techie device since that is not what a majority of their buyers would be interested in.  

    Etc etc. 

    Lol. No, groan. More speculative BS from our AppleWatch/iPhone/Swiss watch expert!

    Not one iota of actual evidence. Priceless.
  • Reply 132 of 144
    bkkcanuckbkkcanuck Posts: 862member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post





    Lol. No, groan. More speculative BS from our AppleWatch/iPhone/Swiss watch expert!



    Not one iota of actual evidence. Priceless.

    brilliant repartee

  • Reply 133 of 144
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,824member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post





    Now, that is some real stuff, requiring real skill! I envy you.

    Making things is all about being in the moment, trying to push the envelope of your skills, accomplishing things that you weren't sure you could.

     

    Any of the creative arts gives the same satisfaction, as do vocations and trades, the sciences and technology. I got the same satisfaction the first time I programmed in Basic on an HP 85 back in the 80's and I'd love to find some time to play with Swift.

     

    This is how I feel about Apple; they empower us to be better.

  • Reply 134 of 144
    lightknightlightknight Posts: 2,312member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by tmay View Post

     

    I think that you are on to something.

     

    While I don't think that the Apple Watch is for everyone, especially at this point in time, a consumer would certainly become aware of the differences between traditional watches for timekeeping and smartwatches. I think that adding retail outlets for the Apple Watch will have the effect of reinforcing a wearable paradigm over a traditional watch for a broader range of the public. Given time, we will see the Apple Watch move from a curiosity and novelty, to an expected part of our social connection.


     

    I think you're quite correct here. There also is a certain grain of Wildean humor here. The only people who never needed time keepers (because they employ people to deal with their agenda) are also the ones who have no need to smartwatches, as well as the ones who can afford €10k+ watches, e.g. extreme luxury mechanical watches. Just reading magazines like SuperYachts or the FT culture supplements is a healthy reminder that advertisement/marketing targeting that market has very different rules than ad/marketing targeted at "us normal people". Those people very well may have bought the expensive Apple Watch models because they can, and novelty always has its effects in society, but they're likely to go back to more beautiful pieces, since the intrinsic value, to them, of a wristwatch, lies in appearance rather then utility.

     

     

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by tmay View Post

     

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-07/apple-helps-push-u-s-watch-sales-to-biggest-drop-in-seven-years?

     

    This completely obliterates your linked article. It may be that there is no causation, and no link to Apple sales, but it sure isn't a sales increase year over year.




    How does it "obliterate" his article??? It's two articles about sales in different markets with conflicting statements. The only way it could "obliterate" anything would be assuming the second source is authoritative and the first one unreliable, when it could perfectly be the opposite, and it still would only be about a certain market.

  • Reply 135 of 144
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,824member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lightknight View Post

     

     

    I think you're quite correct here. There also is a certain grain of Wildean humor here. The only people who never needed time keepers (because they employ people to deal with their agenda) are also the ones who have no need to smartwatches, as well as the ones who can afford €10k+ watches, e.g. extreme luxury mechanical watches. Just reading magazines like SuperYachts or the FT culture supplements is a healthy reminder that advertisement/marketing targeting that market has very different rules than ad/marketing targeted at "us normal people". Those people very well may have bought the expensive Apple Watch models because they can, and novelty always has its effects in society, but they're likely to go back to more beautiful pieces, since the intrinsic value, to them, of a wristwatch, lies in appearance rather then utility.

     

     



    How does it "obliterate" his article??? It's two articles about sales in different markets with conflicting statements. The only way it could "obliterate" anything would be assuming the second source is authoritative and the first one unreliable, when it could perfectly be the opposite, and it still would only be about a certain market.


    Just for the record, the only individuals that require mechanical watches, are those off the grid, and those who require accurate and reliable time for navigation using sextants and charts, or as backup to GPS and GLONASS. For almost everyone else. mechanical watches are not a necessity.

     

    The statement of the first source, Firstclasswatches, June 12;

     

    "The predicted drop off in sales from Apple 2014 to 2015 never materialised and sales of Swiss watches have actually increased in the United States and in China, places you would expect to be first to adopt the new Apple technology. While there’s still a possibility that sales could start to drop off, most manufacturers are confident that it won’t happen, especially now that the initial “buzz” around the Apple Watch has begun to die off".

     

    The poster of that link surely knew that the data was two months older than the NPD data; such is the necessity to support his view.

     

    The OP, AppleInsider based on NPD analysts;

     

    "American sales of conventional watches fell by the steepest amount in seven years during the month of June, a decline linked in part to the debut of the Apple Watch, market research firm NPD Group said on Friday."

     

    and;

     

    "Unit sales were down 14 percent year-over-year to about 927,500, the harshest decline since 2008, NPD told Bloomberg. Retail revenue slid by 11 percent to $375 million."

     

    I will give the benefit of the doubt to the first source if he was speaking to the market for Swiss watches above $1000, but otherwise, his editorialization on June 12 has been found absolutely in error. It's two months later, and now the data is in that proves it. Whether Apple was the cause is speculative, but quite coincidental.

     

    I would say that the second source "obliterated" the first, but you obviously disagree.

     

    I would also note that Android wearables may not compete well against Apple in the $350 and above smartwatch market, but they will compete very well under that, and that is where most mechanical/quartz watches are sold.

  • Reply 136 of 144
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,508member
    tmay wrote: »

    The poster of that link surely knew that the data was two months older than the NPD data; such is the necessity to support his view.

    The OP, AppleInsider based on NPD analysts;

    "American sales of conventional watches fell by the steepest amount in seven years during the month of June, a decline linked in part to the debut of the Apple Watch, market research firm NPD Group said on Friday."

    and;

    "Unit sales were down 14 percent year-over-year to about 927,500, the harshest decline since 2008, NPD told Bloomberg. Retail revenue slid by 11 percent to $375 million."
    Tmay, the NPD (LGi) report estimating shipments says the segment with the biggest drop are watches selling for between $100 and $150, not a price point that Apple is even close to playing in. If smartwatches are causing sales of traditional to drop then Android or Pebble models are as likely to be the culprit IMO as they do sell in that price range. I'm personally not saying one can be blamed on the other in any event tho I myself expect there's a connection.

    I think some folks are putting too much importance on a single report that didn't include the two largest US retailers in the first place and reading things into it that it doesn't yet demonstrate. It simply made a great headline to connect it with Apple. Give it 6 months or so and the connection (or lack of one) should be more apparent.
  • Reply 137 of 144
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,824member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post





    Tmay, the NPD (LGi) report estimating shipments says the segment with the biggest drop are watches selling for between $100 and $150, not a price point that Apple is even close to playing in. If smartwatches are causing sales of traditional to drop then Android or Pebble models are as likely to be the culprit IMO as they do sell in that price range. I'm personally not saying one can be blamed on the other in any event tho I myself expect there's a connection.



    I think some folks are putting too much importance on a single report that didn't include the two largest US retailers in the first place and reading things into it that it doesn't yet demonstrate. It simply made a great headline to connect it with Apple. Give it 6 months or so and the connection (or lack of one) should be more apparent.

    That's the point that I'm making; Smartwatch's / fitness bands in general may be making a difference in sales of traditional watches. We don't know the details one way or another. Speculation, as I pointed out, see's Apple as the culprit; I see it as coincidental.

     

    What I do see is the the author of the first link, FirstClassWatches, jumped the gun on his editorializing that Apple isn't having an impact in Swiss Watch sales; likely true if he is speaking of the higher end. Likely false but unknown if he is speaking of the low end.

     

    What is absolutely true is the the poster of the link knew that the data was two months old; and yet used it to make his case.

     

    My case all along is that the high end will be hard to touch for any smartwatches, and likely have little impact.The lower end, arbitrarily under $1000 dollars, should see declines in traditional watch sales due to Apple Watch and Android Wearable's. That's not a difficult prediction to make.

     

    The rest is details, and I would agree that it is too early to see specific trend's, but unless you have data showing otherwise, I think that it is apparent that there have been two months of declines in traditional watch sales in the market segment we are speaking of, even if just the $100 to $150 dollar end of that market.

     

    My opinion is that most of Apple's Watch sales have been to person's that have not recently, regularly, or ever, been wearing watches. The Sport Watch may be replacing some fitness bands, but that too is speculation.

     

    (I had to make some minor edits for clarity)

     

    Here's a thought; some of those losses of under $150 sales could have been due to binned first generation smartwatches, bought on the cheep, rather than fitness bands. 

  • Reply 138 of 144
    lightknightlightknight Posts: 2,312member
    tmay wrote: »
    Just for the record, the only individuals that require mechanical watches, are those off the grid, and those who require accurate and reliable time for navigation using sextants and charts, or as backup to GPS and GLONASS. For almost everyone else. mechanical watches are not a necessity.

    The statement of the first source, Firstclasswatches, June 12;

    "The predicted drop off in sales from Apple 2014 to 2015 never materialised and sales of Swiss watches have actually increased in the United States and in China, places you would expect to be first to adopt the new Apple technology. While there’s still a possibility that sales could start to drop off, most manufacturers are confident that it won’t happen, especially now that the initial “buzz” around the Apple Watch has begun to die off".

    The poster of that link surely knew that the data was two months older than the NPD data; such is the necessity to support his view.

    The OP, AppleInsider based on NPD analysts;

    "American sales of conventional watches fell by the steepest amount in seven years during the month of June, a decline linked in part to the debut of the Apple Watch, market research firm NPD Group said on Friday."

    and;

    "Unit sales were down 14 percent year-over-year to about 927,500, the harshest decline since 2008, NPD told Bloomberg. Retail revenue slid by 11 percent to $375 million."

    I will give the benefit of the doubt to the first source if he was speaking to the market for Swiss watches above $1000, but otherwise, his editorialization on June 12 has been found absolutely in error. It's two months later, and now the data is in that proves it. Whether Apple was the cause is speculative, but quite coincidental.

    I would say that the second source "obliterated" the first, but you obviously disagree.

    I would also note that Android wearables may not <span style="line-height:22.399999618530273px;">compete well against Apple in the $350 and above smartwatch market, but they will compete very well under that, and that is where most mechanical/quartz watches are sold.</span>
    tmay wrote: »
    That's the point that I'm making; Smartwatch's / fitness bands in general may be making a difference in sales of traditional watches. We don't know the details one way or another. Speculation, as I pointed out, see's Apple as the culprit; I see it as coincidental.

    What I do see is the the author of the first link, FirstClassWatches, jumped the gun on his editorializing that Apple isn't having an impact in Swiss Watch sales; likely true if he is speaking of the higher end. Likely false but unknown if he is speaking of the low end.

    What is absolutely true is the the poster of the link knew that the data was two months old; and yet used it to make his case.

    My case all along is that the high end will be hard to touch for any smartwatches, and likely have little impact.The lower end, arbitrarily under $1000 dollars, should see declines in traditional watch sales due to Apple Watch and Android Wearable's. That's not a difficult prediction to make.

    The rest is details, and I would agree that it is too early to see specific trend's, but unless you have data showing otherwise, I think that it is apparent that there have been two months of declines in traditional watch sales in the market segment we are speaking of, even if just the $100 to $150 dollar end of that market.

    My opinion is that most of Apple's Watch sales have been to person's that have not recently, regularly, or ever, been wearing watches. The Sport Watch may be replacing some fitness bands, but that too is speculation.

    (I had to make some minor edits for clarity)

    Feels like everyone more or less agrees.

    Also, why is Ai's editor so bad at displaying decently on iPhone and iPad?!
  • Reply 139 of 144
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,824member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by lightknight View Post







    Feels like everyone more or less agrees.



    Also, why is Ai's editor so bad at displaying decently on iPhone and iPad?!

    I've used my iPhone on one occasion for a comment, but found it was not very usable. I'll stick to the Safari version.

  • Reply 140 of 144
    crowleycrowley Posts: 10,453member

    Saw my first ?Watch in the wild on the London Underground on Friday, being worn by an exceedingly nerdy looking guy.  Looks weird with a dark screen.

Sign In or Register to comment.