1. Apple does not want a discounted 6 to canibalize the 6S. Thats why they will cancel it. Apple is okay with canibalizing CHEAPER products but not their flagship.
2. 6C needs to be plastic not to canibalize the 6S. The screen needs to be 4.7 inches to move people away from just buying the 5S for $99 cheaper. The 6 internals will easily fit in the 6C case which will be bigger and thicker than the 6 case. Also this phone needs to last at least 3 years to make a plastic case redesign worth it. Doing a metal 6C at 4 inches would not make any sense. Would people really be willing to pay an extra $99 for A8/ApplePay instead of just getting a 5S? Plus a 4 inch screen could not carry the iPhone6 designation.
Only problem with my theory is we haven't seen any leaks of a 4.7 inch plastic phone. But we didn't see any leaks of the iPodTouch either or the AppleWatch.
Are you serious? Plastic doesn't canibalize metal? LOL. If it's 4" plastic 6C, then I'm okay with the statement, but 4.7"? hell no. If canibalization is what Apple are afraid of, they would do 4" 6C either in metal or plastic at mid tier $99 sub while leave 5S as is and either discontinue 6 or 6+ or both. Getting 6C in the new design will worth well for $99 vs 5S with these upgrades: better CPU, GPU, better camera, better screen, better Touch ID and Apple Pay...also, thin and cool with new form factor (curved edge laminated glass). If these are not enough to justify $99 from 5S, I don't know what will. So,
Are you serious? Plastic doesn't canibalize metal? LOL. If it's 4" plastic 6C, then I'm okay with the statement, but 4.7"? hell no. If canibalization is what Apple are afraid of, they would do 4" 6C either in metal or plastic at mid tier $99 sub while leave 5S as is and either discontinue 6 or 6+ or both.
And yet the 5C didn't cannibalize sales of the 5S which set a new record upon it's release. Arguably the 6S isn't going to offer anything more substantial over the 6 than the 5S did over the 5. So history shows that a plastic phone one generation removed from the flagship does not significantly impact the sales of the flagship. A plastic 4.7" iPhone should therefore be no different, assuming there's any reason to believe Apple is planning that. Though there's something to be said for getting the low-end of the Android crow to jump ship as well, and that would be a way to differentiate between the 6 and 6S. But I feel like Apple has enough sales as is to wait until the 7 comes out to go after the low-end Android crowd.
And Apple is not likely to sell the 5S in its current metal case. The plastic 5C case has only been in the market place for two years. The typical lifespan of an iPhone case design is about 4 years. It's pretty obvious from the leaked photos of the plastic case modified for the 5S internals that Apple likely engineered the 5C to accommodate the 5S internals when the time came. So Apple will get at least 3 years out of the 5C case design. That's even more reason to believe Apple is planning to do this.
The plastic 5C case has only been in the market place for two years. The typical lifespan of an iPhone case design is about 4 years.
Lifespan as in how long the device is used or how long the device is sold by Apple as new? If the former I'm not sure of the relevance for this conversation and if the latter don't forget to consider that its flagship component, the A-series chip, was already a generation old when it launched.
It's pretty obvious from the leaked photos of the plastic case modified for the 5S internals that Apple likely engineered the 5C to accommodate the 5S internals when the time came.
I agree with the majority of your post but I think it needs to be clear Apple has never built a case around old [iPhone model] internals for a new case. The iPhone 5C used a majority — but not all — of the components in the iPhone 5 to create the 5C. The logic board, battery, etc, we're not simply lifted from the 5 to put in the 5C case. That's an important distinction.
From a consumer standpoint I rarely see the previous generation iPhone as a good buy for anyone
I’m of the same view, but I’m a bleeding edge guy. And Apple’s sales numbers YoY (well, year after year) show that 50% of purchases are always the new model with roughly 25% for each of the others. That’s not enough? It proves there’s minimal cannibalization. And you know already but I’ll say it again for others, Apple has even stated it prefers its cannibalization to be done by its own products.
I think the 6c will simply be be a repackaged 5s with a plastic body and it will sit at the bottom of the range, as the 5c does today. The mid-range will simply be the 6, reduced in price and storage options (16 and 32 GB?) The 6 Plus will probably be dropped (if you want a big ass iPhone buy the new premium 6s Plus).
This would explain why no parts for the 6c have leaked, they're all but identical to today's 5s internally and today's 5c externally.
The fever dream of an iPhone 6 with a 4" screen is just that, it's not going to happen. This year anyway.
Comments
My guess:
6S $199
6C $99 - iPhone6 in plastic case, 4.7 inch screen
5S $0
5C - only in India, China
My reasons:
1. Apple does not want a discounted 6 to canibalize the 6S. Thats why they will cancel it. Apple is okay with canibalizing CHEAPER products but not their flagship.
2. 6C needs to be plastic not to canibalize the 6S. The screen needs to be 4.7 inches to move people away from just buying the 5S for $99 cheaper. The 6 internals will easily fit in the 6C case which will be bigger and thicker than the 6 case. Also this phone needs to last at least 3 years to make a plastic case redesign worth it. Doing a metal 6C at 4 inches would not make any sense. Would people really be willing to pay an extra $99 for A8/ApplePay instead of just getting a 5S? Plus a 4 inch screen could not carry the iPhone6 designation.
Only problem with my theory is we haven't seen any leaks of a 4.7 inch plastic phone. But we didn't see any leaks of the iPodTouch either or the AppleWatch.
Are you serious? Plastic doesn't canibalize metal? LOL. If it's 4" plastic 6C, then I'm okay with the statement, but 4.7"? hell no. If canibalization is what Apple are afraid of, they would do 4" 6C either in metal or plastic at mid tier $99 sub while leave 5S as is and either discontinue 6 or 6+ or both. Getting 6C in the new design will worth well for $99 vs 5S with these upgrades: better CPU, GPU, better camera, better screen, better Touch ID and Apple Pay...also, thin and cool with new form factor (curved edge laminated glass). If these are not enough to justify $99 from 5S, I don't know what will. So,
6+S
6S
6C (4")
5S
Are you serious? Plastic doesn't canibalize metal? LOL. If it's 4" plastic 6C, then I'm okay with the statement, but 4.7"? hell no. If canibalization is what Apple are afraid of, they would do 4" 6C either in metal or plastic at mid tier $99 sub while leave 5S as is and either discontinue 6 or 6+ or both.
And yet the 5C didn't cannibalize sales of the 5S which set a new record upon it's release. Arguably the 6S isn't going to offer anything more substantial over the 6 than the 5S did over the 5. So history shows that a plastic phone one generation removed from the flagship does not significantly impact the sales of the flagship. A plastic 4.7" iPhone should therefore be no different, assuming there's any reason to believe Apple is planning that. Though there's something to be said for getting the low-end of the Android crow to jump ship as well, and that would be a way to differentiate between the 6 and 6S. But I feel like Apple has enough sales as is to wait until the 7 comes out to go after the low-end Android crowd.
And Apple is not likely to sell the 5S in its current metal case. The plastic 5C case has only been in the market place for two years. The typical lifespan of an iPhone case design is about 4 years. It's pretty obvious from the leaked photos of the plastic case modified for the 5S internals that Apple likely engineered the 5C to accommodate the 5S internals when the time came. So Apple will get at least 3 years out of the 5C case design. That's even more reason to believe Apple is planning to do this.
Lifespan as in how long the device is used or how long the device is sold by Apple as new? If the former I'm not sure of the relevance for this conversation and if the latter don't forget to consider that its flagship component, the A-series chip, was already a generation old when it launched.
I agree with the majority of your post but I think it needs to be clear Apple has never built a case around old [iPhone model] internals for a new case. The iPhone 5C used a majority — but not all — of the components in the iPhone 5 to create the 5C. The logic board, battery, etc, we're not simply lifted from the 5 to put in the 5C case. That's an important distinction.
I’m of the same view, but I’m a bleeding edge guy. And Apple’s sales numbers YoY (well, year after year) show that 50% of purchases are always the new model with roughly 25% for each of the others. That’s not enough? It proves there’s minimal cannibalization. And you know already but I’ll say it again for others, Apple has even stated it prefers its cannibalization to be done by its own products.
This would explain why no parts for the 6c have leaked, they're all but identical to today's 5s internally and today's 5c externally.
The fever dream of an iPhone 6 with a 4" screen is just that, it's not going to happen. This year anyway.