If the value of gold was based on its manufacturing utility, it would be worth very little. Gold is worth what it is because people think it is worth that much.
As is everything else. Except fiat currency, and goods/services that have their price set by law.
Amazing to think Apple has lost 148 Billion in such a short period of time.
You claim to be an "emotionless investor", but with statements like this it is clear that, at least on this forum, you are a troll. Apple did not lose any money - the market has priced AAPL shares down such that there is a decline in market cap. If you know as much as you claim, then this is obvious, yet you post the above. Either a troll or very stupid.
3. Luxury goods usually get hit hard during an economic crisis, but iPhones seem to not follow that rule - at least iPhone sales held up well in 2008/2009.
Apple doesn't sell "luxury goods" (outside of the gold Apple Watch), but rather premium goods, in their respective markets. Big difference. Smartphones are pretty much a "must have" (unless we enter an extreme depression), and Apple sells a premium phone with premium ecosystem. Different economically from a luxury like designer clothes/accessories, cars, etc during a downturn. Related is the fact that Apple's products, while premium, are overall within the realm of purchase for many in the advanced/G20 economies, whereas pure luxury goods have a much smaller market.
All good points though, and I agree that outside of a major depression, Apple will only see some slowdown in growth in the challenged emerging markets. And if a major depression did come, Apple is best positioned to "weather the storm" than any of its peers, with its efficient supply chain, brand, quality and of course, cash in the bank!
Gold does have value over and above being a medium of exchange. It has the chemical property of not reacting with air or water, meaning that it stays shiny all by itself, indefinitely. That makes it excellent for making jewellery out of. As long as people are vain gold will be popular. Maybe once world population peaks and then starts to fall it's price will fall.
You could never get a consensus big enough to implement the change.
But the very act of doing it would instantly decrease trust in the system, as it would prove that the fiat currency is still fiat. And you would always have an n+1 number of nodes installing it anyway, which would shrink the system at parity with the most modern software. Never mind that it could be pushed in the background without consent.
Originally Posted by ascii
That makes it excellent for making jewellery out of.
Also connection points for electronics.
Maybe once world population peaks and then starts to fall it's price will fall.
It’ll peak at 40 billion or so; we’re nowhere near that yet.
It’ll peak at 40 billion or so; we’re nowhere near that yet.
I'm not sure whose projection you're using there. The latest UN medium projection has population reaching 11.2 billion by 2100 (currently 7.3 billion), at which point the fertility rate drops below 2.1 (the replacement rate).
"In the medium-variant projection, global fertility declines from 2.5 children per women in 2010-2015 to 2.25 children per women in 2045-2050 and 2.0 children per women in 2095-2100."
As I've written before, (and this is not investing advice...for anyone) I have a buy order in for $95, just in case the market panics/engineers panic that continues to spread. I consider anything close to or below $100 for AAPL absolutely nuts and a great buy.
@spamsandwich : that's too high. I'd buy it for $75 or less.
But the very act of doing it would instantly decrease trust in the system, as it would prove that the fiat currency is still fiat. And you would always have an n+1 number of nodes installing it anyway, which would shrink the system at parity with the most modern software. Never mind that it could be pushed in the background without consent.
Actually the opposite is true - bitcoin has periodic crisis where the developers disagree and put different versions out, which puts them up for community vote.
Something like this is happening right now, there are two factions of developers with competing versions of the bitcoin software. The mining community will determine which (Bitcoin Core vs Bitcoin XP) gets mass acceptance. Once enough miners decide one way or the other, the competing software will be abandoned because nobody wants to get stuck in the minority group and have their mined blocks be worthless.
This software democracy actually increases trust rather than reduces it - it would be very hard for a malevolent group to take control of the bitcoin community and make a change that was not beneficial.
Apple had $13.2B revenue in China out of a total of $49.6 B worldwide last quarter. It is a significant market, 26.6% of total revenue - but I think that any loss that Apple has due to lower sales in China and worse US/China exchange rates will be balanced out by the following factors:
1. Apple's competitors will also be hit, and some of them don't have the deep pockets to survive the storm.
2. Apple manufacturers goods in China, so manufacturing costs should be lower due to exchange rates and idle factories
3. Luxury goods usually get hit hard during an economic crisis, but iPhones seem to not follow that rule - at least iPhone sales held up well in 2008/2009.
1. Samsung is no longer Apple's competitor in China (never was). Apple's main competitors in China are Chinese domestic smartphone makers like Xiaomi, Huawei, etc whose low-priced phones are better posed for growth in slower economy.
2. Apple "assembles" goods in China and that's pretty much it. Most costly, crucial parts come from everywhere, but China (eg, AP, NaND flash, display, etc)
3. Apple's sales in 2008 and 2009 were tiny and I'm skeptical the historical trend would continue at this scale. Further, the Chinese market is anything, but predictable.
1. Samsung is no longer Apple's competitor in China (never was). Apple's main competitors in China are Chinese domestic smartphone makers like Xiaomi, Huawei, etc whose low-priced phones are better posed for growth in slower economy.
2. Apple "assembles" goods in China and that's pretty much it. Most costly, crucial parts come from everywhere, but China (eg, AP, NaND flash, display, etc)
3. Apple's sales in 2008 and 2009 were tiny and I'm skeptical the historical trend would continue at this scale. Further, the Chinese market is anything, but predictable.
1. I wasn't talking about Samsung, which is why I said "some of Apple's competitors" rather than all. None of those other companies make a profit, so they are going to start losing more money if sales drop.
2. Fair point.
3. Look at the graph of sales, there is no impact at all from the financial crisis. That trend line was completely intact even as the economy was ravaged.
Oh, I’m talking far future; it’s not particularly relevant right now. And I’d caution against taking the UN projections too seriously. Upheaval is coming, particularly to the high-fertility areas.
Originally Posted by e1618978
This software democracy actually increases trust rather than reduces it - it would be very hard for a malevolent group to take control of the bitcoin community and make a change that was not beneficial.
Interesting post. But when I see things like ‘silk road website seized; half of all bitcoins in existence in FBI control’, I start to question that.
Interesting post. But when I see things like ‘silk road website seized; half of all bitcoins in existence in FBI control’, I start to question that.
The silk road stuff really had very little to do with bitcoin - it was a website breaking the law and evading detection using the Tor network, and then the lead guy did some foolish things and got caught. There was no weakness in either bitcoin or Tor that caused any problems for silk road.
The FBI seised 144k coins from silk road, and the total market cap is 14.5 million bitcoins so far mined out of the 21M total, so the FBI owned about 1% of all the current coins. The FBI has sold their coins, here is a link to their empty wallet:
1. Samsung is no longer Apple's competitor in China (never was). Apple's main competitors in China are Chinese domestic smartphone makers like Xiaomi, Huawei, etc whose low-priced phones are better posed for growth in slower economy.
2. Apple "assembles" goods in China and that's pretty much it. Most costly, crucial parts come from everywhere, but China (eg, AP, NaND flash, display, etc)
3. Apple's sales in 2008 and 2009 were tiny and I'm skeptical the historical trend would continue at this scale. Further, the Chinese market is anything, but predictable.
Actually, not so sure that Chinese makers are in that good posture, they'Re selling to the lower to middle end of the middle class in China; those will be hit the hardest by the coming slowdown, not the top end that buys the Iphone which is 3 times the price of those phones.
Did anyone notice....Apple stock grew during arguably one the largest downturns in the American economy?... Did anyone also notice Apple's current P/E of 12?... Did anyone notice that Apple took home 92% of smartphone profits in the last year... Clearly, Apple is not prepared to weather this dip in China's economy.
I don’t understand the protections that allow for this. Could you explain? I know that there is “a set number” of bitcoins in existence, but what, physically, prevents an increase?
Actually, it's because Bitcoins are limited in number, plus there is a public ledger of all transactions so there's less chance "fraudulent" Bitcoins could be created. However, there are an unlimited potential number of digital currency competitors to Bitcoin. It's remained popular because of the "first mover" advantage, IMO.
Comments
If the value of gold was based on its manufacturing utility, it would be worth very little. Gold is worth what it is because people think it is worth that much.
As is everything else. Except fiat currency, and goods/services that have their price set by law.
Amazing to think Apple has lost 148 Billion in such a short period of time.
You claim to be an "emotionless investor", but with statements like this it is clear that, at least on this forum, you are a troll. Apple did not lose any money - the market has priced AAPL shares down such that there is a decline in market cap. If you know as much as you claim, then this is obvious, yet you post the above. Either a troll or very stupid.
...
3. Luxury goods usually get hit hard during an economic crisis, but iPhones seem to not follow that rule - at least iPhone sales held up well in 2008/2009.
Apple doesn't sell "luxury goods" (outside of the gold Apple Watch), but rather premium goods, in their respective markets. Big difference. Smartphones are pretty much a "must have" (unless we enter an extreme depression), and Apple sells a premium phone with premium ecosystem. Different economically from a luxury like designer clothes/accessories, cars, etc during a downturn. Related is the fact that Apple's products, while premium, are overall within the realm of purchase for many in the advanced/G20 economies, whereas pure luxury goods have a much smaller market.
All good points though, and I agree that outside of a major depression, Apple will only see some slowdown in growth in the challenged emerging markets. And if a major depression did come, Apple is best positioned to "weather the storm" than any of its peers, with its efficient supply chain, brand, quality and of course, cash in the bank!
Gold does have value over and above being a medium of exchange. It has the chemical property of not reacting with air or water, meaning that it stays shiny all by itself, indefinitely. That makes it excellent for making jewellery out of. As long as people are vain gold will be popular. Maybe once world population peaks and then starts to fall it's price will fall.
You could never get a consensus big enough to implement the change.
But the very act of doing it would instantly decrease trust in the system, as it would prove that the fiat currency is still fiat. And you would always have an n+1 number of nodes installing it anyway, which would shrink the system at parity with the most modern software. Never mind that it could be pushed in the background without consent.
Also connection points for electronics.
It’ll peak at 40 billion or so; we’re nowhere near that yet.
It’ll peak at 40 billion or so; we’re nowhere near that yet.
I'm not sure whose projection you're using there. The latest UN medium projection has population reaching 11.2 billion by 2100 (currently 7.3 billion), at which point the fertility rate drops below 2.1 (the replacement rate).
"In the medium-variant projection, global fertility declines from 2.5 children per women in 2010-2015 to 2.25 children per women in 2045-2050 and 2.0 children per women in 2095-2100."
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/Key_Findings_WPP_2015.pdf
As I've written before, (and this is not investing advice...for anyone) I have a buy order in for $95, just in case the market panics/engineers panic that continues to spread. I consider anything close to or below $100 for AAPL absolutely nuts and a great buy.
@spamsandwich : that's too high. I'd buy it for $75 or less.
But the very act of doing it would instantly decrease trust in the system, as it would prove that the fiat currency is still fiat. And you would always have an n+1 number of nodes installing it anyway, which would shrink the system at parity with the most modern software. Never mind that it could be pushed in the background without consent.
Actually the opposite is true - bitcoin has periodic crisis where the developers disagree and put different versions out, which puts them up for community vote.
Something like this is happening right now, there are two factions of developers with competing versions of the bitcoin software. The mining community will determine which (Bitcoin Core vs Bitcoin XP) gets mass acceptance. Once enough miners decide one way or the other, the competing software will be abandoned because nobody wants to get stuck in the minority group and have their mined blocks be worthless.
This software democracy actually increases trust rather than reduces it - it would be very hard for a malevolent group to take control of the bitcoin community and make a change that was not beneficial.
Apple had $13.2B revenue in China out of a total of $49.6 B worldwide last quarter. It is a significant market, 26.6% of total revenue - but I think that any loss that Apple has due to lower sales in China and worse US/China exchange rates will be balanced out by the following factors:
1. Apple's competitors will also be hit, and some of them don't have the deep pockets to survive the storm.
2. Apple manufacturers goods in China, so manufacturing costs should be lower due to exchange rates and idle factories
3. Luxury goods usually get hit hard during an economic crisis, but iPhones seem to not follow that rule - at least iPhone sales held up well in 2008/2009.
@1618978 : no.
1. Samsung is no longer Apple's competitor in China (never was). Apple's main competitors in China are Chinese domestic smartphone makers like Xiaomi, Huawei, etc whose low-priced phones are better posed for growth in slower economy.
2. Apple "assembles" goods in China and that's pretty much it. Most costly, crucial parts come from everywhere, but China (eg, AP, NaND flash, display, etc)
3. Apple's sales in 2008 and 2009 were tiny and I'm skeptical the historical trend would continue at this scale. Further, the Chinese market is anything, but predictable.
@1618978 : no.
1. Samsung is no longer Apple's competitor in China (never was). Apple's main competitors in China are Chinese domestic smartphone makers like Xiaomi, Huawei, etc whose low-priced phones are better posed for growth in slower economy.
2. Apple "assembles" goods in China and that's pretty much it. Most costly, crucial parts come from everywhere, but China (eg, AP, NaND flash, display, etc)
3. Apple's sales in 2008 and 2009 were tiny and I'm skeptical the historical trend would continue at this scale. Further, the Chinese market is anything, but predictable.
1. I wasn't talking about Samsung, which is why I said "some of Apple's competitors" rather than all. None of those other companies make a profit, so they are going to start losing more money if sales drop.
2. Fair point.
3. Look at the graph of sales, there is no impact at all from the financial crisis. That trend line was completely intact even as the economy was ravaged.
I'm not sure whose projection you're using there.
Oh, I’m talking far future; it’s not particularly relevant right now. And I’d caution against taking the UN projections too seriously. Upheaval is coming, particularly to the high-fertility areas.
This software democracy actually increases trust rather than reduces it - it would be very hard for a malevolent group to take control of the bitcoin community and make a change that was not beneficial.
Interesting post. But when I see things like ‘silk road website seized; half of all bitcoins in existence in FBI control’, I start to question that.
Interesting post. But when I see things like ‘silk road website seized; half of all bitcoins in existence in FBI control’, I start to question that.
The silk road stuff really had very little to do with bitcoin - it was a website breaking the law and evading detection using the Tor network, and then the lead guy did some foolish things and got caught. There was no weakness in either bitcoin or Tor that caused any problems for silk road.
The FBI seised 144k coins from silk road, and the total market cap is 14.5 million bitcoins so far mined out of the 21M total, so the FBI owned about 1% of all the current coins. The FBI has sold their coins, here is a link to their empty wallet:
https://blockchain.info/address/1FfmbHfnpaZjKFvyi1okTjJJusN455paPH
A little bit everyday...
So true! This correction could rival the Great Depression, more than rival really turn very very ugly. The coming World War won't be pretty either.
If aliens get involved in the war... Especially those ugly illegal green from Mars, all bets are off!
@1618978 : no.
1. Samsung is no longer Apple's competitor in China (never was). Apple's main competitors in China are Chinese domestic smartphone makers like Xiaomi, Huawei, etc whose low-priced phones are better posed for growth in slower economy.
2. Apple "assembles" goods in China and that's pretty much it. Most costly, crucial parts come from everywhere, but China (eg, AP, NaND flash, display, etc)
3. Apple's sales in 2008 and 2009 were tiny and I'm skeptical the historical trend would continue at this scale. Further, the Chinese market is anything, but predictable.
Actually, not so sure that Chinese makers are in that good posture, they'Re selling to the lower to middle end of the middle class in China; those will be hit the hardest by the coming slowdown, not the top end that buys the Iphone which is 3 times the price of those phones.
What’s actually important about that is their quarterly sales kept increasing through the entire thing.
It’s different this time.
I don’t understand the protections that allow for this. Could you explain? I know that there is “a set number” of bitcoins in existence, but what, physically, prevents an increase?
Actually, it's because Bitcoins are limited in number, plus there is a public ledger of all transactions so there's less chance "fraudulent" Bitcoins could be created. However, there are an unlimited potential number of digital currency competitors to Bitcoin. It's remained popular because of the "first mover" advantage, IMO.