Yes but the world economy has grown despite Keynesian policies, which are and have been a tremendous anchor on said progress.
Do you have an iota of evidence that Keynesian policies have been a "tremendous anchor on said progress"? Does it, for example, matter whether we're in a recession or boom?
Quote:
Originally Posted by redefiler
Fact of the matter is Keynes panicked after the depression/war in the same way that Bush did after 9/11. His reasoning is identical to what brought us the TSA, thinking that only the government (rulers) thru unusual and intrusive means can protect us.
He panicked? Cite? "Only the government (rulers)... can protect us"? Have you even bothered to read Keynes? What if I were to tell you that he never said that, and you're making an utterly ignorant statement? (But knock yourself out).
The comparison to Bush is silly. I have no idea what the analogy to 9/11 and TSA even means.
Quote:
Originally Posted by redefiler
Crediting Keynesian based economic policies with the growth of the 20th century, is like crediting TSA with airplanes not exploding. They are just the same waste of everyone's time, managed by corrupt authority and backed only by hysteria.
Um... who credited "Keynesian economic policies with the growth of the 20th century"? Where? Stop setting up straw men or making up stuff.
It’s nothing to do with Apple. The entire system is going to collapse. Keep that in mind.
Gimme a break. Some bozo on MarketWatch “doesn’t want to panic anybody” but then goes on to predict the Dow will drop to 5,000. This is a great time for all the Chicken Littles of this world. They’re all crowing at the top of their beaks. What do the real experts say? Hang in there and don’t sell. It’ll come back like it always has in the past. “The entire system is going to collapse”? Utter nonsense.
What I'm seeing there is a spike after every new iPhone. No surprises at all.
No surprises? Wouldn't you expect at least some impact to show up in that graph relating to the 2008/2009 financial crisis? The spikes are not about new iPhones, btw, they are Christmas sales.
Quote:
Originally Posted by foggyhill
Bitcoin is worth nothing if you don't give a shit about it and think its crap (like most people in the world do), or can't convert it to goods or other currencies. Because, lets face it, they won't all collapse no matter what bitcoin proponents think. You can bank on that...
Bitcoin has amazing utility for most of the people in the world:
- Go ask a prostitute who advertises on backpage.com, bitcoin has allowed them to keep operating even though MasterCard and Visa tried to kill the site.
- Go ask a phillipino maid living in the US and remitting money back home, bitcoin has allowed them to reduce the cost of foreign remittances by over 99% and increase the speed from days to less than 10 minutes.
- Go ask a farmer trying to do a wire transfer to another country to buy a farm, bitcoin is way faster and cheaper.
Bitcoin is already guaranteed to take over the foreign remittance and wire transfer business due to the huge advantage it has - which means that it will be something that both very rich and very poor use very often. Only the middle class is ignoring it.
3. (a) Apple's sales during the last macro economic crisis were tiny and there is no pre-crisis sales data to help determine if Apple's sales is immune to economic downturn (b) China's share of Apple's global iPhones sales is significant today (about 50+% today), especially compared to 2008 and 2009. Their operating segment "Asia-Pacific sales" first didn't even appear in their 10K's until 2011; "Greater China" until 2012. (c) Further, the global smartphone market grew from 139M in 2008 to 969M in 2013, or about 800% (d) China's smartphone market actually shrunk for the first time last quarter.
Go look at the graph, it goes back to 2007, pre-crisis. China sales are 26% of Apples global revenue, not 50%+.
This is pure, unadulterated nonsense, propagated by Ayn Randian (and Rand Paulian) type economists.
They've been going on about this for eight years now, yet the sheer weight of empirical evidence stacked against them has never changed their minds. The global economy has grown impressively, created great companies and products, produced hundreds of millions of jobs, created great wealth, and seen low inflation and interest rates during this period of 'loose monetary and Keynesian' policies you bemoan.
You all have wandered into the realm of complete and irreversible discredit at this point.
Anyone who majors in business will be stuffed to the gills with economics classes. In there, you will watch in amazement how they can suss out incredibly detailed information just by drawing charts and trying to suss out the incredibly small triangles that form. They mean something, you know. You learn that debt can be good or bad. But...lots of it always leads to rising interest rates because someone or something is crowded out. You learn about the velocity of money. Supply and demand. What contributes to GDP and how taxes are both good and bad, depending on the marginal propensity of whatever.
Almost all of it is bullshit. They leave out one big, big thing. We were so lucky to have some brilliant mind from one of the big investment banks come speak to our class. In it, he confirmed what a lot of us were starting to suspect. All those graphs and tiny dead zones and dotted lines and shaded areas were next to useless. He challenged us to think bigger. The economy was incredibly complex. So complex that a building full of mainframes could not reliably predict this or that. Worse, the players in that economy were even more complex. Humans, being what they are, are at a minimum unpredictable. Sometimes they did not act in their best interest.
So he told us to put away our expensive calculators and perhaps take a few classes in psychology. It might serve us better in the long run.
The fed has pumped so much money into the financial system that if any of the theories or charts meant anything in economics, we should have 142% interest rates on t-bills by now. The economy should have collapsed - by 1995, according to an expert (I read that book, unfortunately). We should all be eating gyros by now.
Something is up. The poster above is right. The evidence is in and Rand Paul is wrong. Maybe. At least this time. Maybe something weird and yet-unknown prevented all the gold plated theories of downfall from coming true.
Too much debt might be bad on a certain level. High taxes and too much regulation certainly make running a small business difficult. I do prefer small govt. and lower taxes and higher growth and believe that we should at least stack the deck so the economy (and everyone in it) can thrive. But we should stop bowing down to all these people who have assured us that we are nearing collapse. They've been at it for decades.
I try to keep that in mind when someone is telling me to pack in the chips because eating meat or cow farts or coal are going to tear the earth apart. Any day now. Soon. Then I realize that weather is complex and move on, doing my best to recycle.
Much of the time, the following is true:
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. - H.L. Mencken
If you have a point, just say it. Don’t just make up irrelevant nonsense.
Every single fiat currency in human history has collapsed. The US dollar will be no different.
Yeah, maybe. Consider this. We'll all also be dead in 75 years. If that makes you want to live and plan for your life as though you'll be dead this evening, go right ahead! There'll be more for the rest of us!
My point is quite simply that your economics ideas and predictions (like those of the guy who keeps liking your posts) are utterly clueless. Short of your common sense, I can't really appeal to appeal to much else to get you to stop.
Your guys are priceless. And relentless. :rolleyes:
You have the temerity to completely ignore a direct question I asked you that would refute your nonsensical and shrill claim about fiat currency, and yet ask me to answer an utterly irrelevant question about 1913 that someone else asked that had nothing to do with the question I asked you. Except to say that the Fed was created.
It's like my asking you for your age, and the person you're with wants to know about 2006 from me, and tells me that's because it's the year I joined AI. Makes about the same amount of sense. If that's the extent of the logic and facts you can bring to the table, as I told someone else above, knock yourself out. It's a free country, and it takes all types.
Worse thing the little investor can do now is sell. Ride it out. It will come back. But unfortunately some will panic and hurt themselves badly by selling low and then buying back high.
Yes so true. That's why 90% lose money on the market. In down markets buy more of your good companies.
All stocks drop together, better companies stock rises first.
In this case Apple's stock price has little or even nothing to do with their stock price. Apple sales are doing very well.
Actually it has been noticed that the low priced products do worse in a down cycle, yet higher priced products like Apple's do better. Those with money are less affected by a economic down cycle !!! Sorry Samsung.
OK, here's a fun Sunday project for you. You can easily go back to 1850 all the way to today and obtain GBP/USD data for this 216-year period.
How often did the USD "collapse"? By how much (e.g., how many standard deviations) compared to, say, some long-run average?
(Reworded a bit to clarify).
@anantksundaram : And what is your point? The US currency had been backed by some commodity (eg, gold) standard much of that time. There was really no macro data collected until the 30's, so it's difficult to parse out exactly what really happened (eg, there are a lot of unknowns, debates about the late 1800's), but we do know how the US Dollar performed since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 70's:
So, it's down about 35% since we've been on the fiat standard. In the early 80's, Volcker took extraordinary measures and changes in the fed policy to achieve what is now known as the 15-year "Great Moderation," but he did opposite of what you have prescribed: monetary tightening, not loosening.
Your response is such a non-sequitur. And as always, when pressed for specifics, you always divert the topic and throw out platitudes. "$18 trillion in debt"? What the heck does that mean, independent of the size of the GDP and forecasted trajectory of the deficit? Just throw out some big numbers and you guys expect to won over the low-information types who are impressed by big numbers.
For example, Apple has $55B in debt now, compared to zero five years ago. Is that bad? Good?
And, please: I could care less about Krugman, let alone be a "daft supporter" of his. All you have are poorly formed views based on zero empirical evidence from questionable sources, and you pass it off as bold economics predictions. Do you even have a degree in economics, to be able to make the forecasts you are making?
@anantksundaram : Sure, Apple has $55B in debt -- AND about $180+B in cash all over the world. That's after having distributed $60+B in dividends in the past few years. Further, Apple makes profit pretty much every year; there hasn't been any surplus in gov't since 1957 -- when the fiscal-conservative Eisenhower was the prez.
It's just really difficult to understand what you are trying to say here. (seems to explain why you are on my "block list")
Comments
Gosh, what a disappointingly ignorant post.
Quote:
Yes but the world economy has grown despite Keynesian policies, which are and have been a tremendous anchor on said progress.
Do you have an iota of evidence that Keynesian policies have been a "tremendous anchor on said progress"? Does it, for example, matter whether we're in a recession or boom?
Fact of the matter is Keynes panicked after the depression/war in the same way that Bush did after 9/11. His reasoning is identical to what brought us the TSA, thinking that only the government (rulers) thru unusual and intrusive means can protect us.
He panicked? Cite? "Only the government (rulers)... can protect us"? Have you even bothered to read Keynes? What if I were to tell you that he never said that, and you're making an utterly ignorant statement? (But knock yourself out).
The comparison to Bush is silly. I have no idea what the analogy to 9/11 and TSA even means.
Crediting Keynesian based economic policies with the growth of the 20th century, is like crediting TSA with airplanes not exploding. They are just the same waste of everyone's time, managed by corrupt authority and backed only by hysteria.
Um... who credited "Keynesian economic policies with the growth of the 20th century"? Where? Stop setting up straw men or making up stuff.
It’s nothing to do with Apple. The entire system is going to collapse. Keep that in mind.
Gimme a break. Some bozo on MarketWatch “doesn’t want to panic anybody” but then goes on to predict the Dow will drop to 5,000. This is a great time for all the Chicken Littles of this world. They’re all crowing at the top of their beaks. What do the real experts say? Hang in there and don’t sell. It’ll come back like it always has in the past. “The entire system is going to collapse”? Utter nonsense.
What I'm seeing there is a spike after every new iPhone. No surprises at all.
No surprises? Wouldn't you expect at least some impact to show up in that graph relating to the 2008/2009 financial crisis? The spikes are not about new iPhones, btw, they are Christmas sales.
Bitcoin is worth nothing if you don't give a shit about it and think its crap (like most people in the world do), or can't convert it to goods or other currencies. Because, lets face it, they won't all collapse no matter what bitcoin proponents think. You can bank on that...
Bitcoin has amazing utility for most of the people in the world:
- Go ask a prostitute who advertises on backpage.com, bitcoin has allowed them to keep operating even though MasterCard and Visa tried to kill the site.
- Go ask a phillipino maid living in the US and remitting money back home, bitcoin has allowed them to reduce the cost of foreign remittances by over 99% and increase the speed from days to less than 10 minutes.
- Go ask a farmer trying to do a wire transfer to another country to buy a farm, bitcoin is way faster and cheaper.
Bitcoin is already guaranteed to take over the foreign remittance and wire transfer business due to the huge advantage it has - which means that it will be something that both very rich and very poor use very often. Only the middle class is ignoring it.
@e1618978 : Sure,
3. (a) Apple's sales during the last macro economic crisis were tiny and there is no pre-crisis sales data to help determine if Apple's sales is immune to economic downturn (b) China's share of Apple's global iPhones sales is significant today (about 50+% today), especially compared to 2008 and 2009. Their operating segment "Asia-Pacific sales" first didn't even appear in their 10K's until 2011; "Greater China" until 2012. (c) Further, the global smartphone market grew from 139M in 2008 to 969M in 2013, or about 800% (d) China's smartphone market actually shrunk for the first time last quarter.
Go look at the graph, it goes back to 2007, pre-crisis. China sales are 26% of Apples global revenue, not 50%+.
If you want to delude yourselves into believing that the dollar will never collapse, then you deserve what happens when it does.
If you want to delude yourselves into believing that the dollar will never collapse, then you deserve what happens when it does.
OK, here's a fun Sunday project for you. You can easily go back to 1850 all the way to today and obtain GBP/USD data for this 216-year period.
How often did the USD "collapse"? By how much (e.g., how many standard deviations) compared to, say, some long-run average?
(Reworded a bit to clarify).
Here's something for you to investigate. What happened in the U.S. in 1913?
And in case you are feeling particularly uncreative, this link cuts to the chase:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Act
How often did the USD "collapse"? By how much (e.g., how many standard deviations) compared to, say, some long-run average?
If you have a point, just say it. Don’t just make up irrelevant nonsense.
Every single fiat currency in human history has collapsed. The US dollar will be no different.
This is pure, unadulterated nonsense, propagated by Ayn Randian (and Rand Paulian) type economists.
They've been going on about this for eight years now, yet the sheer weight of empirical evidence stacked against them has never changed their minds. The global economy has grown impressively, created great companies and products, produced hundreds of millions of jobs, created great wealth, and seen low inflation and interest rates during this period of 'loose monetary and Keynesian' policies you bemoan.
You all have wandered into the realm of complete and irreversible discredit at this point.
Anyone who majors in business will be stuffed to the gills with economics classes. In there, you will watch in amazement how they can suss out incredibly detailed information just by drawing charts and trying to suss out the incredibly small triangles that form. They mean something, you know. You learn that debt can be good or bad. But...lots of it always leads to rising interest rates because someone or something is crowded out. You learn about the velocity of money. Supply and demand. What contributes to GDP and how taxes are both good and bad, depending on the marginal propensity of whatever.
Almost all of it is bullshit. They leave out one big, big thing. We were so lucky to have some brilliant mind from one of the big investment banks come speak to our class. In it, he confirmed what a lot of us were starting to suspect. All those graphs and tiny dead zones and dotted lines and shaded areas were next to useless. He challenged us to think bigger. The economy was incredibly complex. So complex that a building full of mainframes could not reliably predict this or that. Worse, the players in that economy were even more complex. Humans, being what they are, are at a minimum unpredictable. Sometimes they did not act in their best interest.
So he told us to put away our expensive calculators and perhaps take a few classes in psychology. It might serve us better in the long run.
The fed has pumped so much money into the financial system that if any of the theories or charts meant anything in economics, we should have 142% interest rates on t-bills by now. The economy should have collapsed - by 1995, according to an expert (I read that book, unfortunately). We should all be eating gyros by now.
Something is up. The poster above is right. The evidence is in and Rand Paul is wrong. Maybe. At least this time. Maybe something weird and yet-unknown prevented all the gold plated theories of downfall from coming true.
Too much debt might be bad on a certain level. High taxes and too much regulation certainly make running a small business difficult. I do prefer small govt. and lower taxes and higher growth and believe that we should at least stack the deck so the economy (and everyone in it) can thrive. But we should stop bowing down to all these people who have assured us that we are nearing collapse. They've been at it for decades.
I try to keep that in mind when someone is telling me to pack in the chips because eating meat or cow farts or coal are going to tear the earth apart. Any day now. Soon. Then I realize that weather is complex and move on, doing my best to recycle.
Much of the time, the following is true:
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. - H.L. Mencken
Yeah, maybe. Consider this. We'll all also be dead in 75 years. If that makes you want to live and plan for your life as though you'll be dead this evening, go right ahead! There'll be more for the rest of us!
My point is quite simply that your economics ideas and predictions (like those of the guy who keeps liking your posts) are utterly clueless. Short of your common sense, I can't really appeal to appeal to much else to get you to stop.
Groan....
No, definitionally.
Hey, if you’re planning to die that quickly, that’s on you. Telomere treatments will be available before the end of the century.
And as you’ve no evidence of this, I’ll go ahead and keep holding them.
If it was a matter of common sense, no one would be using fiat currency.
So you have no reply whatsoever.
Again with this economic doomsday nonsense? And claiming that other people have no evidence?
Enough already.
Not sure why it's been so slow around here lately but...
Aparently UnboxTherapy got an iPhone 6s shell and tested it's bendability... and it's WAY stronger! Check it out.
[edit: Never mind. I found it covered here]Your guys are priceless. And relentless. :rolleyes:
You have the temerity to completely ignore a direct question I asked you that would refute your nonsensical and shrill claim about fiat currency, and yet ask me to answer an utterly irrelevant question about 1913 that someone else asked that had nothing to do with the question I asked you. Except to say that the Fed was created.
It's like my asking you for your age, and the person you're with wants to know about 2006 from me, and tells me that's because it's the year I joined AI. Makes about the same amount of sense. If that's the extent of the logic and facts you can bring to the table, as I told someone else above, knock yourself out. It's a free country, and it takes all types.
(Fixed a couple of typos).
The only people talking about “doomsday” anything are the ones discounting this.
Given that you don’t, well…
Like non-fiat currency!
Like the inexorable march all fiat currencies take to 0!
I explicitly addressed it. Your question is irrelevant.
There’s no wonder you don’t comprehend what we’re saying if you don’t even comprehend the origin of fiat currency in the US.
No, it’s like you asking when I’m going to die.
Rather, wants to know about the year of my birth, specifically, if we’re holding to the analogy.
That hasn’t been true for the longest time.
Worse thing the little investor can do now is sell. Ride it out. It will come back. But unfortunately some will panic and hurt themselves badly by selling low and then buying back high.
Yes so true. That's why 90% lose money on the market. In down markets buy more of your good companies.
All stocks drop together, better companies stock rises first.
In this case Apple's stock price has little or even nothing to do with their stock price. Apple sales are doing very well.
Actually it has been noticed that the low priced products do worse in a down cycle, yet higher priced products like Apple's do better. Those with money are less affected by a economic down cycle !!! Sorry Samsung.
Wow, 3 pages of comments and not a peep from Sog who has his life savings invested in AAPL...
Sog35 was banned a couple of days ago. I have no doubt he'll be back. Soon.
OK, here's a fun Sunday project for you. You can easily go back to 1850 all the way to today and obtain GBP/USD data for this 216-year period.
How often did the USD "collapse"? By how much (e.g., how many standard deviations) compared to, say, some long-run average?
(Reworded a bit to clarify).
@anantksundaram : And what is your point? The US currency had been backed by some commodity (eg, gold) standard much of that time. There was really no macro data collected until the 30's, so it's difficult to parse out exactly what really happened (eg, there are a lot of unknowns, debates about the late 1800's), but we do know how the US Dollar performed since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 70's:
So, it's down about 35% since we've been on the fiat standard. In the early 80's, Volcker took extraordinary measures and changes in the fed policy to achieve what is now known as the 15-year "Great Moderation," but he did opposite of what you have prescribed: monetary tightening, not loosening.
Your response is such a non-sequitur. And as always, when pressed for specifics, you always divert the topic and throw out platitudes. "$18 trillion in debt"? What the heck does that mean, independent of the size of the GDP and forecasted trajectory of the deficit? Just throw out some big numbers and you guys expect to won over the low-information types who are impressed by big numbers.
For example, Apple has $55B in debt now, compared to zero five years ago. Is that bad? Good?
And, please: I could care less about Krugman, let alone be a "daft supporter" of his. All you have are poorly formed views based on zero empirical evidence from questionable sources, and you pass it off as bold economics predictions. Do you even have a degree in economics, to be able to make the forecasts you are making?
@anantksundaram : Sure, Apple has $55B in debt -- AND about $180+B in cash all over the world. That's after having distributed $60+B in dividends in the past few years. Further, Apple makes profit pretty much every year; there hasn't been any surplus in gov't since 1957 -- when the fiscal-conservative Eisenhower was the prez.
It's just really difficult to understand what you are trying to say here. (seems to explain why you are on my "block list")