Latest guesstimate pegs Apple Watch at 3.6M units shipped last quarter

Posted:
in Apple Watch edited August 2015
Though Apple still hasn't announced sales of its wrist-worn Apple Watch, that hasn't stopped yet another research firm from throwing their hat into the ring, estimating that Apple debuted at second place in the wearable device market behind Fitbit.




IDC's latest Worldwide Quarterly Wearable Device Tracker suggests that 3.6 million Apple Watch units shipped last quarter, giving it a 19.9 percent share of units worldwide. IDC claims that was second only to Fitbit, which it estimates shipped 4.4 million units, for a 24.3 percent share.

The only other wearable device maker to crack the million-unit mark, IDC's research suggests, was Xiaomi, which is said to have shipped 3.1 million units, good for third place. IDC's estimates place Garmin in fourth with 700,000 devices shipped, and Samsung in fifth with just 600,000 units.

IDC projects that total wearable shipments reached 18.1 million units last quarter, up a massive 223.2 percent from the same period a year prior.




"Anytime Apple enters a new market, not only does it draw attention to itself, but to the market as a whole," said Ramon Llamas, research manager for IDC's Wearables team. "Its participation benefits multiple players and platforms within the wearables ecosystem, and ultimately drives total volumes higher. Apple also forces other vendors - especially those that have been part of this market for multiple quarters - to re-evaluate their products and experiences.

"Fairly or not, Apple will become the stick against which other wearables are measured, and competing vendors need to stay current or ahead of Apple. Now that Apple is officially a part of the wearables market, everyone will be watching to see what other wearable devices it decides to launch, such as smart glasses or hearables."

Any such numbers should be met with some level of skepticism, however, as Apple itself has not revealed any specific sales or shipment data of the Apple Watch.

Further complicating matters is the fact that the Apple Watch was only available at Apple's own stores until earlier this month when it debuted at Best Buy --?after the June quarter covered by IDC's research. That means the only company with any concrete idea of the watch's performance thus far would be Apple itself.

For its part, IDC has said that its "Tracker" products rely on proprietary tools and research processes. Detailed findings from IDC's research can be obtained by purchasing the report from the company.

Though Apple hasn't given specific sales figures, the company did make an effort to combat erroneous research that suggested sales of the Apple Watch were "collapsing" post-launch. Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook said last month that the device had actually posted its best monthly performance to date in June.

Sales estimates, however, have been all over the map: Slice Intelligence put first-quarter sales at 2.79 million, Canalys estimated 4.2 million, and Bloomberg forecast sales at 1.9 million.

Many of the forecasts have ignored context from Apple itself, as the company revealed last month that the Apple Watch outsold the first-generation iPad through its first nine weeks. Sales of the first iPad were announced in 2010, when it was revealed that the device had reached 3 million on day 80.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 29
    thrangthrang Posts: 762member
    I'm suspecting IDC will issue a report soon on what Apple executives had for lunch the past quarter, with predictions of future ingestion.
  • Reply 2 of 29
    thrangthrang Posts: 762member
    Computation IDC uses for estimating sales


    [SPOILER=image][IMG ALT=""]http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/62132/width/350/height/700[/IMG][/SPOILER]
  • Reply 3 of 29

    I don't like the idea of Apple Watch being segmented in the wearables category.  Fitbit, Garmin, and Xiaomi makes many different wearables that range from as cheap as $25 to as much as $250.  

     

    So, if IDC is counting on a cheap Xiaomi health monitor wristband as a wearable.  It's not the same comparison as a Smart watch.

     

    Next thing you know that IDC will be counting smart shoe laces as wearables. 

  • Reply 4 of 29

    Apple Watch is at this time (no pun intended) an accessories gadget that only the most tech savvy are interested in. It is not in its current incarnation a cultural shifting device (nor do I think it was expected to be) as the iPhone or the original Mac was. Given time and development it may prove itself to be an integral part of how we function in our society but it is not there yet so these numbers I suspect are close to accurate. 

  • Reply 5 of 29
    Just two months ago 3+ million Apple Watches shipped was considered a failure. Now 3+ million Apple Watches shipped is considered a success. IDC has been on an Apple roll this month. IDC's tone has noticeably changed towards Apple aiming for profits over market share. IDC does not appear to be looking at the aim as a negative.i do wonder why IDC is publishing so many positive reports about Apple though. Still, there are no negative stories about Samsung, Google or any Android manufacturer. Nearly every positive Apple story published by IDC has contained something positive about Android. Not one publication has referenced the failure claims as they have promoted the success claims of the Apple Watch. The SEC will not investigate the manipulation.
  • Reply 6 of 29
    Hoo-boy... Everyone knows the next big thing will be line dancing robots. /s
  • Reply 7 of 29
    sog35 wrote: »
    So IDC publishing positive things about THE MOST SUCCESSFUL COMPANY ON THE PLANET  is manipulation?

    Time to take that tin foil hat off your head.

    Really sog35?

    Take a moment to digest what I typed BEFORE typing what I consider a stupid ass response.
  • Reply 8 of 29
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,288member
    sog35 wrote: »
    So you want IDC to say negative things about the companies that pay their bills?
    Which companies specifically would those be?
  • Reply 9 of 29
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,288member
    Just two months ago 3+ million Apple Watches shipped was considered a failure. Now 3+ million Apple Watches shipped is considered a success. IDC has been on an Apple roll this month. IDC's tone has noticeably changed towards Apple aiming for profits over market share. IDC does not appear to be looking at the aim as a negative.i do wonder why IDC is publishing so many positive reports about Apple though. Still, there are no negative stories about Samsung, Google or any Android manufacturer. Nearly every positive Apple story published by IDC has contained something positive about Android. Not one publication has referenced the failure claims as they have promoted the success claims of the Apple Watch. The SEC will not investigate the manipulation.
    IDC did report "bad news" for Android OEM's back in May when they predicted an overall slowing China market but a fast-growing one for Apple. Their market share report back in February was also very positive for Apple and not-so-much for Android OEM's.

    I think that blog sites sometimes make market reports sound more negative than they really are hoping to get page clicks.
  • Reply 10 of 29
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,664member
    How long until smart watches is separated from wearables? Probably when a non Apple smart watch takes hold on the lead.
  • Reply 11 of 29
    MarvinMarvin Posts: 14,209moderator
    sog35 wrote: »
    Total and utter bullshit.

    Your signature says 15m in 12 months. 15m/4 quarters = 3.75m per quarter. The SEC filings give reasonable estimates:

    Q3F 2015, accessory products = $2.641b, Q3F 2014 = $1.767b.
    Q2F 2015 = $1.689b, Q2F 2014 = $1.88b. 10% drop
    Q1F 2015 = $2.689b, Q1F 2014 = $2.836b. 5% drop

    If you assume that Q3 would have fallen the same as Q2 had the Watch not been available then, the expected amount would be about $1.59b. This means the Watch was responsible for $1.05b gain. This matches with what Luca said about the Watch accounting for more than 100% of the gain in that group. It was 100% of the increase plus offsetting the expected drop. The drop may have been even more than 10%.

    This is from April 24th-June 27th (the report is filed in July) so only 2 months of sales, not a full quarter. The most it can possibly be (assuming this profit) is if only the cheapest model sold at $350, which means $1.05b/$350 = 3 million units in 2 months. The ASP is probably higher than $350, somewhere around $400-450 is reasonable. If we assume $400, it's 2.6m units in 2 months. ASP of $450 means 2.3m units.

    Working on the ASP of $350-450, the unit volume over a full quarter with sustained demand would be expected to be 50% higher than 2.3-3m units = 3.45-4.5m units per full quarter or 13.8-18m units in 12 months, which is what your signature suggests you're expecting.

    The earnings filed in late October will give more details as to what a full quarter post-launch demand looks like.

    Fitbit sells a lot of units:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33798724

    $400m in a quarter and they said 4.5m units so ASP is $89. Their net income is $17.7m. Apple's net income is likely over $260m. It'll be a similar situation to the iPhone where it maintains a large enough marketshare but not the largest yet takes a much higher percentage of profit.

    It might seem fairer to exclude fitness wearables from smartwatches but iPads sometimes get considered in the PC segment because they cross over in their usage patterns.
  • Reply 12 of 29
    vision33r wrote: »
    Next thing you know that IDC will be counting smart shoe laces as wearables. 

    Smart shoelaces. With Googe Now. Just sign in with your Google+ account, and it will track your steps and location.
  • Reply 13 of 29
    entropysentropys Posts: 1,622member
    I do't think the apple watch is in the same market as a Fitbit. A couple of the large number of functions of the apple watch may also be done by a Fitbit, but that is like saying my bicycle is in the same market as a Toyota Land Cruiser.
  • Reply 14 of 29
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,399member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Entropys View Post



    I do't think the apple watch is in the same market as a Fitbit. A couple of the large number of functions of the apple watch may also be done by a Fitbit, but that is like saying my bicycle is in the same market as a Toyota Land Cruiser.



    It depends on the customer. If you're in the market for a bicycle, why would you even look at a LC, and vice-versa? The ?Watch absolutely competes with the FitBit in many respects. A long as we're going with the car analogy, I liken it more to comparing the base model of any car with the luxury edition. Both get you from point a to b. The Fitbit tracks fitness, the ?Watch tracks fitness. Both tell time. But the ?Watch is the luxury edition here adding all sorts of other features that make the driving more comfortable, and productive, and it looks nicer. But you pay the price for that. Moreover, because the ?Watch does the basics just like Fitbit, then it's absolutely on the table for a potential customer. Just like the dealer shows a customer the base model, then starts pointing out all the option packages available, and before it's over has convinced the customer to buy the luxury edition. This is essentially where the ?Watch ends up in the same market as FitBit. Except in this case, Apple offers so much more for the one than premium seats and sound package.

  • Reply 15 of 29
    analogjackanalogjack Posts: 1,064member
    Wtf is a "hearable" other than a product you hear?
  • Reply 16 of 29
    revenantrevenant Posts: 489member
    If Apple cannot get their ass in gear and make a product people actually want then ... hahaha, I cannot finish. Outsell Google and Microsoft combined and Apple will still get a wag of the finger.
  • Reply 17 of 29
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

    Total and utter bullshit.


    Get ready to self-ban Dude.

  • Reply 18 of 29
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Marvin View Post





    Your signature says 15m in 12 months. 15m/4 quarters = 3.75m per quarter. The SEC filings give reasonable estimates:



    Q3F 2015, accessory products = $2.641b, Q3F 2014 = $1.767b.

    Q2F 2015 = $1.689b, Q2F 2014 = $1.88b. 10% drop

    Q1F 2015 = $2.689b, Q1F 2014 = $2.836b. 5% drop



    If you assume that Q3 would have fallen the same as Q2 had the Watch not been available then, the expected amount would be about $1.59b. This means the Watch was responsible for $1.05b gain. This matches with what Luca said about the Watch accounting for more than 100% of the gain in that group. It was 100% of the increase plus offsetting the expected drop. The drop may have been even more than 10%.



    This is from April 24th-June 27th (the report is filed in July) so only 2 months of sales, not a full quarter. The most it can possibly be (assuming this profit) is if only the cheapest model sold at $350, which means $1.05b/$350 = 3 million units in 2 months. The ASP is probably higher than $350, somewhere around $400-450 is reasonable. If we assume $400, it's 2.6m units in 2 months. ASP of $450 means 2.3m units.



    Working on the ASP of $350-450, the unit volume over a full quarter with sustained demand would be expected to be 50% higher than 2.3-3m units = 3.45-4.5m units per full quarter or 13.8-18m units in 12 months, which is what your signature suggests you're expecting.



    The earnings filed in late October will give more details as to what a full quarter post-launch demand looks like.



    Fitbit sells a lot of units:



    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33798724



    $400m in a quarter and they said 4.5m units so ASP is $89. Their net income is $17.7m. Apple's net income is likely over $260m. It'll be a similar situation to the iPhone where it maintains a large enough marketshare but not the largest yet takes a much higher percentage of profit.



    It might seem fairer to exclude fitness wearables from smartwatches but iPads sometimes get considered in the PC segment because they cross over in their usage patterns.

     

    Me, I'm expecting 15M watches by January 1 and 18M in first year of sales. That's 90-95% of the industry profits, like everything Apple does :-).

  • Reply 19 of 29

    I think Best Buy expanding ?Watch sales to all their stores is a genuine 3rd party reappraisal of Tim's assertion that the ?Watch is selling very well.

     

    I think the Watch has amazing opportunities and I'm already finding it increasingly difficult to not have on my hand.

    It is very difficult to explain to a non-?Watch user just what makes it appealing. There isn't one single thing that you pin-point about it that cannot be refuted or dismissed, but the overall package is becoming pretty indispensable.

  • Reply 20 of 29

    The Watch may seem like an accessory before you purchase it, but it becomes a necessity once you begin wearing it.

    I wear mine every day and love it.

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