The search for Apple's next big thing

2

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 49
    kpluckkpluck Posts: 500member
    For years, Apple's detractors have predicted that the company's industry-leading profits from Macs, iPods, iPhones and iPads would erode away as cheaper products from high volume competitors--and more innovative disruptors--emerged to knock it from its profitable perch, forcing the company to constantly invent new product categories just to stay alive.
    Congratulations...you win the worst starting sentence of an article posted on the internet award.

    Can you post some links where people have actually "predicted" that? I ask because I don't believe I have ever read such a thing. Now, I have read a lot of people that comment on how most of Apple's profits come from their phones so IF those sales tank, it would hurt them financially. However, I have never read anyone predicting that would happen.

    -kpluck
  • Reply 22 of 49
    sog35 said:

    sog35 said:
    Wall Street will never stop manipulating Apple. Why?  Because they make BILLIONS on shorting the stock, computer algo trading, selling covered calls, and day trades.  Long term investors and Apple employees lose out on HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS IN WEALTH.

    The only way to stop this is for Apple to go private.

    People say its impossible for Apple to go private since no investment group has $700-$900 billion required to buyout the shareholders.  The fact is no buyout is necessary. If the shareholders agree to take the company private they don't need to sell their shares.  Their shares will simply be converted to private equity shares. What that means is the shares would not be sold on the public market. It would no longer be open to manipulation by Wall Street.  Instead it would be sold on a private exchange that would put limits on purchases. For example they could put a limit that any shares bought would have to be held for a minimum of 60 days.  That would get rid of all day traders, option manipulators, and most importantly computer algo's.

    So what are the steps for Apple going private?

    1. Board of Directors approval to take company off of public exchanges (NYSE)
    2. Vote by shareholders to convert public shares to private shares
    3. A private exchange is set up with buy/sell limitations that will limit manipulation
    4. Apple will need to continue to report quarterly financials to the SEC is because they have over 2000 shareholders
    This is NEVER going to happen so I don't know why you keep banging on about it.

    Go suck a lemon dude.
    Don't blame me that you don't have vision like I do.
    Don't blame me that you think things can never happen just because they never happened.

    Personally I'm sick and tired of Apple stock.  I sold a significant amount of my shares this morning (at a decent profit mind you).

    I'm done following this pathetic stock (not a pathetic company).  Fuc you Wall Street. I'm done with this shiit.  I still hold about 800 shares but those will be in deep freeze for decades.  I'm done following this company of a daily basis or even monthly basis.  Once the stock hits $140-$150 I'm selling it all.  Apple board of directors and CEO don't give a crap about stockholders.  

    This will be my last post here for 12 months.  
    I lost my bet that Apple see's $150.
    So long.  See you on 12/14/16.  Or maybe never.
    Apple's BoD and CEO don't give a crap about stockholders? Give me an example of any of Apple's peers who do give a crap about stockholders. 
    jackansi
  • Reply 23 of 49
    sog35 said:
     I still hold about 800 shares but those will be in deep freeze for decades.  I'm done following this company of a daily basis or even monthly basis.  Once the stock hits $140-$150 I'm selling it all.  Apple board of directors and CEO don't give a crap about stockholders.  

    This will be my last post here for 12 months.  
    I lost my bet that Apple see's $150.
    So long.  See you on 12/14/16.  Or maybe never.
    youre investing it wrong. you shouldnt be trying to track and follow and adjust your stocks daily. you find good investments and let them sit long term. i worked for MarketWatch.com and some of our experts spoke to employees about the quantifiable difference between pretending to be a day-trader and just finding good long-term investments. apple's a good long-term investment. you shouldnt be trying to day trade it.
    gtrDan Andersen
  • Reply 24 of 49

    kpluck said:
    Can you post some links where people have actually "predicted" that? I ask because I don't believe I have ever read such a thing. Now, I have read a lot of people that comment on how most of Apple's profits come from their phones so IF those sales tank, it would hurt them financially. However, I have never read anyone predicting that would happen.

    are you serious? first people said the ipod would get commoditized. then they said the exact same about the iphone. still hasnt happened.
  • Reply 25 of 49

    kpluck said:
    Can you post some links where people have actually "predicted" that? I ask because I don't believe I have ever read such a thing. Now, I have read a lot of people that comment on how most of Apple's profits come from their phones so IF those sales tank, it would hurt them financially. However, I have never read anyone predicting that would happen.

    are you serious? first people said the ipod would get commoditized. then they said the exact same about the iphone. still hasnt happened.
    The iPod did get commoditized - by the iPhone (or smartphone).
  • Reply 26 of 49
    cropr said:

    If Samsung is going to be out of the smartphone business in 5 years what hope does anyone else have? 
    None.
    And that could be bad news for Android, simply because Samsung is the only Android device maker making a profit. The rest are, at best breaking even, and at worst showing losses. What happens to Android when they these device makers exit because it isn't sustainable?
    How can you know that Samsung is the only Android manufacturer making a profit?  Just to take an example: Huawei has a reasonable market share and is privately owned, so there are no profit/loss figures publlshed.  So there is only guessing.
    http://uk.businessinsider.com/apple-94-percent-smartphone-industry-profits-canaccord-genuity-2015-11
  • Reply 27 of 49
    Thanks again DED for another deep dive into the worlds of Apple.  You remain my favorite tech writer. 
    gtr
  • Reply 28 of 49

    kpluck said:
    Can you post some links where people have actually "predicted" that? I ask because I don't believe I have ever read such a thing. Now, I have read a lot of people that comment on how most of Apple's profits come from their phones so IF those sales tank, it would hurt them financially. However, I have never read anyone predicting that would happen.

    are you serious? first people said the ipod would get commoditized. then they said the exact same about the iphone. still hasnt happened.
    The iPod did get commoditized - by the iPhone (or smartphone).
    it never got replaced by generic alternatives in its market sector, which was the point as you know. same with the iPhone -- commodities didn't undo its profit dominance. and remember, on wall street its profit that counts. 
  • Reply 29 of 49
    sog35 said:

    Personally I'm sick and tired of Apple stock.  I sold a significant amount of my shares this morning (at a decent profit mind you).

    I'm done following this pathetic stock (not a pathetic company).  Fuc you Wall Street. I'm done with this shiit.  I still hold about 800 shares but those will be in deep freeze for decades.  I'm done following this company of a daily basis or even monthly basis.  Once the stock hits $140-$150 I'm selling it all.  Apple board of directors and CEO don't give a crap about stockholders.  

    This will be my last post here for 12 months.  
    I lost my bet that Apple see's $150.
    So long.  See you on 12/14/16.  Or maybe never.
    Sad to see you go. You provided interesting vision, naive at times, but that's what visionaries do.
    Seems like a good time for you to take a break as we could sense your bitterness.
    I do hope your fascination with Apple stock (or any investment for that matter) is kept in balance with the other more important priorities in life.
    Good luck.
    -drewys
    afrodri
  • Reply 30 of 49
    knowitallknowitall Posts: 1,648member
    Its all about future trends and if Apple can recognize them.

    One trend is that computers, even very powerful ones, will cost almost nothing in the future, and should cost almost nothing today. A 64 bit ARM board for example costs $19 (with 2GB of RAM) and can be used as a Mac mini replacement when versions with 4GB or more are introduced. I think a mini should cost no more than $100 at this moment (with ARM instead of Intel); in the near future this will be $20 or less.

    Another one is that the cloud is a huge waste, even if you do it all by solar, and completely unnecessary and unwanted most of the time. Devices should communicate as local as possible (point to point) and not use relays unless it is impossible otherwise. IPv6 makes this a lot easier, and yes this is just around the corner.

    Another one is that people might take offense when the price of their iPhone is way to high - shown by Apples huge profits - and is carelessly burned away (100 billion dollar of it) without even benefitting the shareholder who shouldn't be Apples primary focus to begin with.

    People like to feel good about the company they buy from and would like to see the money spend in a meaningful way, for example by buying (or supporting) all African wildlife parks and an army to protect agains ivory poachers (which isn't that strange considering that Apple did something good by increasing Chineese wages, but by doing so gave them the buying power to kill every elephant and rino in Africa and beyond).

    Another trend might be that people don't like a computing device that is locked down, it's one thing to give coding classes, but another to make programming impossible on all i devices. So maybe the future is Linux, or another open system.

    Currenly Apples OSes are the best, especially Mac OS X (it's really a class apart compared to MS W) and it is not easy to switch, but this might not be so in the future.
  • Reply 31 of 49
    drewys808 said:
    sog35 said:

    Personally I'm sick and tired of Apple stock.  I sold a significant amount of my shares this morning (at a decent profit mind you).

    I'm done following this pathetic stock (not a pathetic company).  Fuc you Wall Street. I'm done with this shiit.  I still hold about 800 shares but those will be in deep freeze for decades.  I'm done following this company of a daily basis or even monthly basis.  Once the stock hits $140-$150 I'm selling it all.  Apple board of directors and CEO don't give a crap about stockholders.  

    This will be my last post here for 12 months.  
    I lost my bet that Apple see's $150.
    So long.  See you on 12/14/16.  Or maybe never.
    Sad to see you go. You provided interesting vision, naive at times, but that's what visionaries do.
    Seems like a good time for you to take a break as we could sense your bitterness.
    I do hope your fascination with Apple stock (or any investment for that matter) is kept in balance with the other more important priorities in life.
    Good luck.
    -drewys
    Glad, I am not going to see those logically illogical or should I say impossible comments getting repeated over and over and over and over for a year and hopefully never. (Unless he can't resist and comes back with different name or may be already started building reputation with different name)
    edited December 2015 afrodri
  • Reply 32 of 49
    anomeanome Posts: 1,533member
    Despite a string of massively successful products from Apple over the last 15 years, Wall Street continues to be pessimistic of Apple's future chances at success. If you view Apple as a studio behind a series of hit movies (iMac, iPod, iPhone, iPad and Apple Watch), it makes sense to fear that Apple's next film might be a flop that could take down the entire company. However, Apple is not run as a hit-driven movie studio.
    Otherwise known as the Marvel Problem. Everyone keeps waiting for Marvel to make a film that flops. So far, the worst that's happened is a film or two that haven't been as insanely popular as Iron Man or The Avengers. Just like how the iPad doesn't sell as many units as the iPhone, but is still doing much better than anything else in its class.

    Of course, there's always the risk that the next product will tank entirely, and they shouldn't become complacent, but that's the nature of business. The problem Apple faces, though, is that there are a large number of people hoping it will fail, or wanting to be seen as the wise sage who predicted their downfall. (Say the next product is going to tank often enough, and eventually you'll be right.)
  • Reply 33 of 49
    zoetmbzoetmb Posts: 2,654member
    appex said:
    Peanuts... The real next big-thing is true AI. HAL becomes real!
    I agree with that.  I see the future of Apple as an AI and robotics company.    I think that Siri is the zygote beginning of that process along with the supposed Apple car (which I still have a hard time believing, in spite of all the evidence).

    Apple is the most successful consumer products company of all time.   Most of the analysts have always gotten Apple wrong.   It's not that Apple is beyond any criticism, but their overall strategy has been enormously successful.   They have completely changed what it means to be successful by an order of magnitude.    It used to take months or years to achieve a million units of a new product type.   Apple now does that in days. 

    Has any analyst or critic of Apple ever conceded that they got it wrong?  

    John C. Dvorak, 1984

    “The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a "mouse". There is no evidence that people want to use these things. I dont want one of these new fangled devices."

     

    former Apple VP Gaston Bastiaens, January 1996.

    “Within the next two months, Sony will acquire Apple. … Sony will be the white knight who will step into the picture."

     

    Michael Dell, October 1997

    "I'd shut [Apple] down and give the money back to the shareholders."

     

    Hiawatha Bray, Boston Globe, 1998.
    "The iMac will only sell to some of the true believers. The iMac doesn’t include a floppy disk drive drive for doing file backups or sharing of data. ... The iMac will fail.

    10/5/2000   Michael S. Malone

    Apple R.I.P.

    … “Nevertheless, the bloom is off the rose. The incredible run-up Apple stock has enjoyed since Steve's return is over, and the sheen of success that had enveloped the company has been tarnished.

    A temporary setback? Don't be too sure. Unlike, say, Hewlett-Packard, Apple has always been a company that deals poorly with failure. When things go bad at Apple, they go very bad. “

    5/21/2001  Cliff Edwards 

    Commentary: Sorry, Steve: Here's Why Apple Stores Won't Work

    “New retail outlets aren't going to fix Apple's sales “

     

    12/23/2006 Bill Ray (Mobile)

    “Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly”

    It's the Pippin all over again”

     

    1/14/2007 Matthew Lynn

    Apple iPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move

    “…Don't let that fool you into thinking that it matters. The big competitors in the mobile-phone industry such as Nokia Oyj and Motorola Inc. won't be whispering nervously into their clamshells over a new threat to their business…

    The iPhone is nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget freaks. In terms of its impact on the industry, the iPhone is less relevant”

     

    3/28/2007 John Dvorak

    Apple should pull the plug in the iPhone

    Commentary:  Company risks its reputation in competitive business

    … Now compare that effort and overlay the mobile handset business. This is not an emerging business. In fact it's gone so far that it's in the process of consolidation with probably two players dominating everything, Nokia Corp… and Motorola Inc.”

     


    alexkhan2000
  • Reply 34 of 49
    As I read the last paragraph, I could just see the competition lining up, kinda sad because they don't really need to defeat each other they just need to take advantage from what the other does.  Like your examples of how Apple did from them.

    I attribute this all to one thing, "The best OSCore in the multiverse", most reliable (doesn't crash, you don't have to fix it over and over), best security (nuff said).
  • Reply 35 of 49
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 13,002member
    zoetmb said:
    appex said:
    Peanuts... The real next big-thing is true AI. HAL becomes real!
    I agree with that.  I see the future of Apple as an AI and robotics company.    I think that Siri is the zygote beginning of that process along with the supposed Apple car (which I still have a hard time believing, in spite of all the evidence).

    Apple is the most successful consumer products company of all time.   Most of the analysts have always gotten Apple wrong.   It's not that Apple is beyond any criticism, but their overall strategy has been enormously successful.   They have completely changed what it means to be successful by an order of magnitude.    It used to take months or years to achieve a million units of a new product type.   Apple now does that in days. 

    Has any analyst or critic of Apple ever conceded that they got it wrong?  

    John C. Dvorak, 1984

    “The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a "mouse". There is no evidence that people want to use these things. I dont want one of these new fangled devices."

     

    former Apple VP Gaston Bastiaens, January 1996.

    “Within the next two months, Sony will acquire Apple. … Sony will be the white knight who will step into the picture."

     

    Michael Dell, October 1997

    "I'd shut [Apple] down and give the money back to the shareholders."

     

    Hiawatha Bray, Boston Globe, 1998.
    "The iMac will only sell to some of the true believers. The iMac doesn’t include a floppy disk drive drive for doing file backups or sharing of data. ... The iMac will fail.

    10/5/2000   Michael S. Malone

    Apple R.I.P.

    … “Nevertheless, the bloom is off the rose. The incredible run-up Apple stock has enjoyed since Steve's return is over, and the sheen of success that had enveloped the company has been tarnished.

    A temporary setback? Don't be too sure. Unlike, say, Hewlett-Packard, Apple has always been a company that deals poorly with failure. When things go bad at Apple, they go very bad. “

    5/21/2001  Cliff Edwards 

    Commentary: Sorry, Steve: Here's Why Apple Stores Won't Work

    “New retail outlets aren't going to fix Apple's sales “

     

    12/23/2006 Bill Ray (Mobile)

    “Why the Apple phone will fail, and fail badly”

    It's the Pippin all over again”

     

    1/14/2007 Matthew Lynn

    Apple iPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move

    “…Don't let that fool you into thinking that it matters. The big competitors in the mobile-phone industry such as Nokia Oyj and Motorola Inc. won't be whispering nervously into their clamshells over a new threat to their business…

    The iPhone is nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget freaks. In terms of its impact on the industry, the iPhone is less relevant”

     

    3/28/2007 John Dvorak

    Apple should pull the plug in the iPhone

    Commentary:  Company risks its reputation in competitive business

    … Now compare that effort and overlay the mobile handset business. This is not an emerging business. In fact it's gone so far that it's in the process of consolidation with probably two players dominating everything, Nokia Corp… and Motorola Inc.”

     


    All that claim chowder, and not a cracker in sight.  :D
  • Reply 36 of 49
    sog35 said:

    sog35 said:
    Wall Street will never stop manipulating Apple. Why?  Because they make BILLIONS on shorting the stock, computer algo trading, selling covered calls, and day trades.  Long term investors and Apple employees lose out on HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS IN WEALTH.

    The only way to stop this is for Apple to go private.

    People say its impossible for Apple to go private since no investment group has $700-$900 billion required to buyout the shareholders.  The fact is no buyout is necessary. If the shareholders agree to take the company private they don't need to sell their shares.  Their shares will simply be converted to private equity shares. What that means is the shares would not be sold on the public market. It would no longer be open to manipulation by Wall Street.  Instead it would be sold on a private exchange that would put limits on purchases. For example they could put a limit that any shares bought would have to be held for a minimum of 60 days.  That would get rid of all day traders, option manipulators, and most importantly computer algo's.

    So what are the steps for Apple going private?

    1. Board of Directors approval to take company off of public exchanges (NYSE)
    2. Vote by shareholders to convert public shares to private shares
    3. A private exchange is set up with buy/sell limitations that will limit manipulation
    4. Apple will need to continue to report quarterly financials to the SEC is because they have over 2000 shareholders
    This is NEVER going to happen so I don't know why you keep banging on about it.

    Go suck a lemon dude.
    Don't blame me that you don't have vision like I do.
    Don't blame me that you think things can never happen just because they never happened.

    Personally I'm sick and tired of Apple stock.  I sold a significant amount of my shares this morning (at a decent profit mind you).

    I'm done following this pathetic stock (not a pathetic company).  Fuc you Wall Street. I'm done with this shiit.  I still hold about 800 shares but those will be in deep freeze for decades.  I'm done following this company of a daily basis or even monthly basis.  Once the stock hits $140-$150 I'm selling it all.  Apple board of directors and CEO don't give a crap about stockholders.  

    This will be my last post here for 12 months.  
    I lost my bet that Apple see's $150.
    So long.  See you on 12/14/16.  Or maybe never.
    You're leaving? Oh how I'll miss the fantasy of you talking about Apple going private. 
  • Reply 37 of 49
    crowleycrowley Posts: 10,453member
    sog35 said:

    sog35 said:
    Wall Street will never stop manipulating Apple. Why?  Because they make BILLIONS on shorting the stock, computer algo trading, selling covered calls, and day trades.  Long term investors and Apple employees lose out on HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS IN WEALTH.

    The only way to stop this is for Apple to go private.

    People say its impossible for Apple to go private since no investment group has $700-$900 billion required to buyout the shareholders.  The fact is no buyout is necessary. If the shareholders agree to take the company private they don't need to sell their shares.  Their shares will simply be converted to private equity shares. What that means is the shares would not be sold on the public market. It would no longer be open to manipulation by Wall Street.  Instead it would be sold on a private exchange that would put limits on purchases. For example they could put a limit that any shares bought would have to be held for a minimum of 60 days.  That would get rid of all day traders, option manipulators, and most importantly computer algo's.

    So what are the steps for Apple going private?

    1. Board of Directors approval to take company off of public exchanges (NYSE)
    2. Vote by shareholders to convert public shares to private shares
    3. A private exchange is set up with buy/sell limitations that will limit manipulation
    4. Apple will need to continue to report quarterly financials to the SEC is because they have over 2000 shareholders
    This is NEVER going to happen so I don't know why you keep banging on about it.

    Go suck a lemon dude.
    Don't blame me that you don't have vision like I do.
    Don't blame me that you think things can never happen just because they never happened.

    Personally I'm sick and tired of Apple stock.  I sold a significant amount of my shares this morning (at a decent profit mind you).

    I'm done following this pathetic stock (not a pathetic company).  Fuc you Wall Street. I'm done with this shiit.  I still hold about 800 shares but those will be in deep freeze for decades.  I'm done following this company of a daily basis or even monthly basis.  Once the stock hits $140-$150 I'm selling it all.  Apple board of directors and CEO don't give a crap about stockholders.  

    This will be my last post here for 12 months.  
    I lost my bet that Apple see's $150.
    So long.  See you on 12/14/16.  Or maybe never.
    Speculative stockholder out to make money complains about other speculators out to make money.  And the world's tiniest violin play on.
  • Reply 38 of 49
    As I've said before and I will say it again I can't wait until the day that Apple is more than just iPhone, Inc. in the eyes of Wall Street. The market was up broadly today with many tech stocks up over 2% yet Apple was down almost 1% because of a bearish iPhone note from Morgan Stanley. All Wall Street cares about is how many iPhones Apple sells.
  • Reply 39 of 49
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    Stock taking a beating this morning as Morgan Stanley lowered their price target saying the December quarter would see a YOY decline in sales. They cut their component order estimates by 10% for the December quarter and 20% for the March quarter. And Morgan Stanley is usually one of the more bullish firms on Apple.

    http://fortune.com/2015/12/14/morgan-stanley-apple-price/
    A target of 142 seems bullish to me.
  • Reply 40 of 49
    As to Apple's self-developed A Series chips, Apple effectively took Samsung out of the code elopement space for new chip tech / improvements which would have enabled Samsung to incorporate those advancements in their own devices.
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