Apple suppliers expect iPhone 6s orders to be cut by 30% this quarter - report

AppleInsider

Apple suppliers are preparing for slower-than-expected sales of the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus in the current March quarter, with orders said to be some 30 percent lower than originally expected, according to Japanese business newspaper Nikkei.

Inventory of the iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus has "piled up at retailers" since they launched in September, the new report claims. As a result, Apple is allegedly scaling back production for the January-to-March quarter.

It's worth noting that Tuesday's rumor comes from Nikkei Asian Review, a part of The Nikkei, which is the world's largest financial newspaper with a daily circulation of over 3 million. Previous reports about slowing iPhone sales were attributed to supply chain rumors, Apple partners, and Wall Street speculation.

It was said that Apple had previously indicated to suppliers that it expected iPhone sales to follow their usual seasonal trends in the March quarter. Tuesday's report suggested that Apple may have over-produced the iPhone 6s series in the December quarter, leaving excess inventory in the channel to start calendar 2016.

The report will almost certainly fuel concerns on Wall Street that the iPhone 6s series won't be able to continue the iPhone's upward growth trajectory from year to year. Speculation about "peak iPhone" sales has been attributed to recent struggles for AAPL stock.

Wall Street analysts have largely stood by Apple as a no-brainer long-term investment. But worries that iPhone sales could actually decline year over year in the coming quarters have led a number of research firms to cut their estimates in recent weeks, including FBR & Co., RBC Capital Markets, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley.

Investors will likely have a better indication of how the iPhone 6s series is performing when Apple announces the results of its just-concluded December quarter on Jan. 26. The company had projected revenue between $75.5 billion and $77.5 billion, with gross margins between 39 and 40 percent.

Driven by the launch of the iPhone 6s lineup and the holiday shopping season, market watchers generally expect that Apple set a new quarterly record for iPhone sales in the December frame. Their concerns instead extend to the March and June quarters, as some customers may wait for an anticipated "iPhone 7" lineup.

mac_128

Perhaps those rumors are because Apple expects to sell a large number of new 4" iPhones instead. Which is possibly further evidence that the new 4" phone will be more of a premium device, or at least premium-adjacent. So no losses for Wall Street to be concerned about.

rogifan_old

We've heard these supply chain rumors since the beginning of December. At what point is this already baked in to the stock price? 

mjtomlin

as some customers may wait for an anticipated "iPhone 7" lineup

Tired of hearing this "concern" over and over and over again. Do these people think they have some brilliant insight into Apple's product release schedule that they have point out that SOME people will wait for the next version? SOME people have to wait because that's the carrier upgrade schedule they're locked into.

And why is it a concern? It's the same damned thing every-freaken-year. Did they expect sales to rocket higher after the holiday quarter? And what happened to the rumors of a 4" iPhone being released during this period of concern? Won't that help boost sales for those who've been holding out for another small phone?

These "insider" analysts rumors run over each other so often it makes you wonder if they're just made up? LOL

applesauce007

Well if they are introducing a new iPhone 6c or 7c this quarter, then it makes sense to expect some buyers to go for the 6c or 7c.

icoco3

Same rumor, different quarter.

delreyjones

Does anyone here pay attention to Horace Dediu's analysis over at Asymco?  Here's his chart.  It's impossible for me to see this sky-is-falling, 30% cut scenario when I look at the Asymco work:  

sflocal

sog35 said:

Here we go again.

This is probably the 15th time these supply chain rumors have come out since November.
And each time the stock losses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.

Yet Tim Cook says absolutely NOTHING.
The stock is down nearly $180 billion since these rumors have started.
Yet Cook does nothing.

Alright Sog... knock it off. Go ban yourself as you promised.  You have plenty of time to nag everyone about your rant, yet "conveniently" are elusive about the self-ban promise you made.

Either that, or just be quiet about it already.

flaneur

sog35 said:

Here we go again.

This is probably the 15th time these supply chain rumors have come out since November.
And each time the stock losses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.

Yet Tim Cook says absolutely NOTHING.
The stock is down nearly $180 billion since these rumors have started.
Yet Cook does nothing.

Doing and saying nothing is exactly the right strategy, until the earnings report. 

The analysts and the tech rumor sites, including the negative comment threads, are just so much contemptible noise, for the reasons he already gave two years ago. Beneath comment for someone like him, who expects people will listen to what he says and learn from experience that Apple has the products and the marketing to keep growing.

icoco3

sog35 said:

icoco3 said:

Same rumor, different quarter.

More like same rumor, different day.

This is the same supply chain bullshit that's been going around since November.

And each time the stock loses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.
Yet Tim Cook does NOTHING.

I guess he is just making it cheaper for you to buy even more.  Time to solidify your holdings.

If Tim Cook every puts up another "Lunch with Tim Cook" auction, make sure you win it then you can finally vent your grievances to him.  On this site, we don't care what you think on that matter so just start making posts with something useful and stop the trolling.

foggyhill

BTW, last year when they got 30% more sales than predicted, they also got chatter of big order cuts; they were wrong.
Before Q3, chatter about order cuts, wrong again.

As for saying nothing.
Because they're not true...
Because starting to respond now would open up a pandoras box of expectations of having to respond to every single one of the 1000s of rumors coming out every month.
Because it would be idiotic to say anything 3 weeks before the Q1 conference call.
Because he's busy suing the pants off those suppliers (or just cuting them off), for leaking confidential info (if its true of course).

Whatever works for you.

poksi

sog35 said:

icoco3 said:

Same rumor, different quarter.

More like same rumor, different day.

This is the same supply chain bullshit that's been going around since November.

And each time the stock loses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.
Yet Tim Cook does NOTHING.

Don't buy stock if you don't have the nerve to stand by it.

aeassa

sog35 said:

Can someone give a rational explanation why Tim Cook isn't disputing these reports?

Sure...have you considered that the reports might actually be accurate?

RonnnieO

Maybe Tim Cook isn't disputing these reports because they are true and iphone numbers will be light for the quarter. Also, he doesn't have to issue a warning just because of light iphone sales, only if the total revenue of the company is below guidance. IMO this would be a good scenario as it tells me that sales of macs, ipads, watches etc. etc. are doing better than expected which will quiet those who think Apple is a one trick pony with the iphone.

mjtomlin

flaneur said:

sog35 said:

Here we go again.

This is probably the 15th time these supply chain rumors have come out since November.
And each time the stock losses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.

Yet Tim Cook says absolutely NOTHING.
The stock is down nearly $180 billion since these rumors have started.
Yet Cook does nothing.

Doing and saying nothing is exactly the right strategy, until the earnings report. 

The analysts and the tech rumor sites, including the negative comment threads, are just so much contemptible noise, for the reasons he already gave two years ago. Beneath comment for someone like him, who expects people will listen to what he says and learn from experience that Apple has the products and the marketing to keep growing.

Tim Cook already said something over a year ago about reading the supply chain tea leaves. These people obviously don't listen to or believe anything Tim says (even though their financial reports have backed up everything he said), so why bother continuing to play this stupid game? Instead, let the quarterly report speak for itself.

If you're a long-term investor, the price hitting this low gives you an opportunity to expand your investment. If you're a day trader, well that's the gamble you made.

loquitur

sog35 said:

Can someone give a rational explanation why Tim Cook isn't disputing these reports?

Yes, from an interview with the Irish Independent -- Cook: "I don't even look at what the analysts say", videlicet:
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/tim-cook-says-he-doesnt-read-what-analysts-write-about-apple-2015-11

slurpy

sog35 said:

Here we go again.

This is probably the 15th time these supply chain rumors have come out since November.
And each time the stock losses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.

Yet Tim Cook says absolutely NOTHING.
The stock is down nearly $180 billion since these rumors have started.
Yet Cook does nothing.

I can't fathom how childish you are, if you believe that Cook stating "Supply chain rumors are unreliable" (as he's done a million times in the past) will magically fix the stock. It's like you got this moronic idea into your head that you've decided to keep repeating with no basis in reality. 

I just bought another 30 shares yesterday, cause unlike you, I'm a long term investor that realizes that Apple's fundamentals are insanely strong, and stock price does not reflect its performance- I also have faith in those that run the company. Tim Cook's job is not to manage the stock, but the health of the company and it's product, in which he's doing a commendable job. If the stock does not reflect the ACTUAL health of the company, that has nothing to do with Cook. Sell your shares and go buy stock in a company that you actually believe in. You must have a shitload of time on your hands to repeat the same rant 5000x. 

ac1234

aeassa said:

sog35 said:

Can someone give a rational explanation why Tim Cook isn't disputing these reports?

Sure...have you considered that the reports might actually be accurate?

That is a possibility - of concern for sure.

jkichline

sog35 said:

Can someone give a rational explanation why Tim Cook isn't disputing these reports?

He already has explained to not rely on supply chain checks and has already provided guidance for the quarter. A skill of intelligent people is to learn how to ignore the noise of idiots and focus on your objective. There's no need for him to argue with crazy people who make shit up.

On top of this, if the stock price sinks Apple can buyback more shares from all the analysts wetting themselves over the ipocolypse. It's a win-win situation.

aeassa

RonnnieO said:

Maybe Tim Cook isn't disputing these reports because they are true and iphone numbers will be light for the quarter. Also, he doesn't have to issue a warning just because of light iphone sales, only if the total revenue of the company is below guidance. IMO this would be a good scenario as it tells me that sales of macs, ipads, watches etc. etc. are doing better than expected which will quiet those who think Apple is a one trick pony with the iphone.

I don't think Apple will miss their FQ1 numbers, but the odds are looking good that FQ2 guide will be pretty downbeat. They wouldn't warn about a quarter they haven't guided to yet, hence no warning. 

thompr

sog35 said:

Here we go again.

This is probably the 15th time these supply chain rumors have come out since November.
And each time the stock losses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.

Yet Tim Cook says absolutely NOTHING.
The stock is down nearly $180 billion since these rumors have started.
Yet Cook does nothing.

Cook will say all he needs to say at the conference call.  If the rumors were true, it's baked in.  If not, AAPL will eventually come back.

 You suffer from a lack of patience, not to mention integrity. (Weren't you supposed to be gone now?)