Apple CFO says they're seeing softness in China, especially Hong Kong. Also predicting March revenue will be down YOY. Last time that occurred was before iPod.
You have to consider how many HK sales were effectively to China mainland when launch dates were staggered between countries.
No, the only thing that can stop it is to pay the taxes on the overseas hoard and and announce an increased dividend.
How would losing $35billion increase the share price?
Distributing a large portion of their cash hoard to shareholders would = a significant ROI. Spending the capital return program is a waste of money. We long term shareholders have not seen an ROI anywhere commensurate with the $100,000,000,000 wasted on buybacks thus far. I doubt the AAPL price would change much either way but we would at least have ROI.
Remember Capital Return Program DOES NOT EQUAL ROI - it is simply returning the investment at a gain or loss depending on cost basis.
I think the only issue for 2016 is the rising US dollar. But, I think most of the hit for that occured in 2015. Oil is close to its inflation adjusted bottom, so I think the US dollar will either be stable or lose a bit of steam this year, which will help Apple.
I've been following this forum for ages and I've finally had enough of sog35 and his same rhetoric of getting rid of Tim Cook, even though he's presided over one of the most successful periods of Apple! It is pretty obvious that Wall Street will never give Apple a chance. More of a opportunity of Apple buying back stock at a undervalued price.
No, the only thing that can stop it is to pay the taxes on the overseas hoard and and announce an increased dividend.
How would losing $35billion increase the share price?
By making it very attractive to those who want an income stream from their investments. In the current world climate with the disastrous 0% interest rate policies and central bank meddling, all investment classes have seen big downturns in their yields, negatively impacting ROI. Investors seeking an income stream from their investments are really struggling to find decent yields, which in part has lead to the vast influx of funds into equities in search of returns. I think if Apple were to increase their dividends that there would be a surge in demand for the stock.
Do Dividend Payouts Reduce Share Prices? Apr. 29, 2010 10:25 AM ET|
From time to time, one runs across a statement such as the following:
And don't be fooled into thinking that relying on the dividend rather than selling [shares] leaves you with the original investment intact. It doesn't. When stocks pay out their dividends, the share price adjusts downward to compensate for the payout.
This quote was taken from a recent MarketWatch article (available here), written by a Wall Street Journal writer who should know better.
Share prices do not adjust downward to reflect the dividend being paid out. To believe that is to make the fundamental error of confusing book value with stock price.
So missing the Q1 consensus & lower Q2 guidance than last year are all positive news? Apple is far from being in trouble, but is there even a pretense of impartiality in the headline?
You do know this is AppleInsider's forum, don't you? I think you're looking for Forbes.
I was looking at getting an iPad Pro, but with the £679 base model only being 32GB plus an insane £79 for the pencil it's just way too expensive, especially when considering how limited iOS is. The 128GB model with pencil is slightly more than the price of the hugely more capable Surface Pro, with all its ports. The iPad still just seems like a giant phone to me. I find it's hard to be productive on an iPad (I have an iPad Air) with its giant iPhone apps, which I think is a bit of a consequence of the apps being universal between iPhone and iPad. For me, a device with the size and expense of the iPad Pro really needs more software functionality to justify its price tag.
Have you even used an iPad? Try using Astropad with an iPad pro and you realise how much potential the pro has in a professional market. Wacom should be worried
No, the iPad Air I said I have is of course still in its original box, unused.
That's great but it's just one app - the OS needs much more capability like a real filesystem. Trying to get anything from one app to another is such a huge hassle, and having a third party app like Dropbox isn't a solution.
Have you even used an iPad? Try using Astropad with an iPad pro and you realise how much potential the pro has in a professional market. Wacom should be worried
No, the iPad Air I said I have is of course still in its original box, unused.
That's great but it's just one app - the OS needs much more capability like a real filesystem. Trying to get anything from one app to another is such a huge hassle, and having a third party app like Dropbox isn't a solution.
So you are commenting about a product which you have not used and say it's not useful. You do realise using Astropad with an iPad doesn't require a file system.
What's not a good sign is you not paying attention to age-old reports.
iPad sales are down because customers are opting for bigger-screen iPhones, which happen to also have higher margins than iPads. What next? Complain that Apple canabalizing its own products is worse than those same customer just buying a non-Apple product instead?
Please Mr. Einstein... do enlighten us on what Apple should be doing?
iPhone sales aren't up 25% and will actually be down YOY next quarter. So it's hard to say iPad sales declines are due to more iPhone sales.
The net gain may have still been lower, but your math does not take into account that a small gain to 75M units (iPhones) compared to a large decline to 16M units (iPads) produce units sold numbers that are much closer than their respective percentages indicate.
Everybody obsessed with unit sales and revenue, and missing that in earnings per share beats Wall Street expectations 3.23-3.25 estimated vs. 3.28 real.
Everybody obsessed with unit sales and revenue, and missing that in earnings per share beats Wall Street expectations 3.23-3.25 estimated vs. 3.28 real.
EPS is easily fudged through various manipulations. It's common for companies to beat on earnings but miss revenues.
How would one know for sure? That category is still rather new, isn't it?
Also, since cheapo knockoff "tablets" are everywhere it may be that people go for the low-price offerings thinking they'll only use them for web browsing and some games, unaware of the depth of the Apple offerings.
Everybody obsessed with unit sales and revenue, and missing that in earnings per share beats Wall Street expectations 3.23-3.25 estimated vs. 3.28 real.
EPS is easily fudged through various manipulations. It's common for companies to beat on earnings but miss revenues.
Can you please show me the manipulation here? I only care about earnings per share because its what I get. You can care about whatever you want. The less shares outstanding there are, the more profits per share. Less shares, higher dividend per share with the same cost for the company. And more cash in the coffers per share in case the company decides, as Microsoft did last decade, to give it to its shareholders. At the end its what really matters to me.
on the other hand, you got Amazon, fantastic revenue growth and no profits, with the pie in the sky promise of one day screw all its loyal customers to pay whatever they want. And I'm an AMZN shareholder.
Crazy the way APPL is evaluated. The company's market valuation is less than twice its accumulated profits. And even though iPhone sales and profits are up 50% from three years ago, the stock price is lower now than it was in September 2012.
So missing the Q1 consensus & lower Q2 guidance than last year are all positive news? Apple is far from being in trouble, but is there even a pretense of impartiality in the headline?
You do know this is AppleInsider's forum, don't you? I think you're looking for Forbes.
Forbes, at least the online part, is now a constant clickbait shithole; since Apple is good for clicks, they milk negative Apple news day and night.
EPS is easily fudged through various manipulations. It's common for companies to beat on earnings but miss revenues.
Can you please show me the manipularion here? I only care about earnings per share because its what I got. You can care about whatever you want. The less shares outstanding there are the more profits per share. Less shares more dividend pershare with the same cist for the comoany. And more cash in the coffers per sbare in case the company decides, as Microsoft did last decade, to give it to its shareholders. At the end its what reallt matters.
Tell that to IBM shareholders. Among other things, buybacks artificially increase EPS, and there comes a time it doesn't matter if revenues are steadily decreasing. I expect Apple is highly motivated to increase services while the iPhone is still holding up so they can try to avoid IBM's fate. Also, most of Apple's money is overseas, and they have to borrow to return it to shareholders, as they're unwilling to bring it home and pay taxes. Microsoft was stagnant over the last decade, and what broke them out of that wasn't returning cash; it was getting rid of Ballmer. Sitting on a big pile of cash doesn't really help beyond a point.
60% of the install base has not upgraded to a 6/6 Plus, 6S or 6S Plus. Only 9% upgraded in Q1. That seems awfully high. Is that due to prices or more people than thought didn't want larger screen phones?
Actually relatively good news there, at least for the long term. If only 40% have upgraded to the last two devices and they are sticky Apple customers (most would be) then they will upgrade sometime. Some quarter will be the mother of all quarters, or the upgrade cycle will kick in. Apple therefore has significant growth left in the engine and it's installed base is continuing to grow significantly. Someone might be able to work out how many android customers (or first time customers) they are getting every year.
And yes it also looks like there is a demand for a 4" with top level . That could be another boost.
Really the only thing that can stop this drop is the buyback.
I still conclude that Tim Cook has done a piss poor job of controlling the narrative. Slowing revenue growth in certain quarters is a fact of life when you are the size of Apple. Yet companies like Coke, McDonalds, and AT&T do not have PE's of 10 like Apple.
I think Cook needs to be fired.
We need a CEO to lead the next chapter of Apple from being a pure hardware player to a software/services giant.
Good lord dude, they just made $18.4B dollars. Call me when you make that much in one quarter.
Sales are down for a few product lines, & Apple still has a record revenue quarter. But pay no attention to the implications, and focus on the metrics that you can slam… this is silly. Any other company would have media attention focusing on its positives, but the market doesn’t like what that says about other platforms which it has a lot more invested in.
Few consumers outside of gadgets freaks care about having the latest and greatest if they are happy with what they have. For even people that do care about performance, the current offerings aren’t compelling enough for most with lightning port iPads (~4 years old now) to upgrade yet. I have a first gen Air & it only slows down with some games, other than that rare deficiency, the only thing that appeals to me is the iPad Pro’s improved pencil support. So, I’m happy to wait since my current iPad looks like it has at least a few more years of usable life.
So, it’s not surprising sales would be down, and it would be even less surprising if sales rise either this year or next as people with iPad 3s and below finally replace their iPads since their productive lifespan is probably closer to 6 years than 3 or 4 like current phones.
A few things to keep in perspective: - Look at multiple years to see what the growth is like when averaged. As noted by another, iPhone sales growth in FY 2015 was huge. Check out the trend over last two years then - or 5. With both upgraders within the user base, growth in emerging markets (see focus on India), and some switchers from Android, Apple will still grow the iPhone platform & its shipments. There may be some lulls in that as we see, but my money is that "peak iPhone" is as likely as the predictions of "peak oil" from 2008. - Currency headwinds through much of 2014 and 2015 as the USD had a huge rise. Expect this will peak soon, which means those become some currency tailwinds going forward 2016+ - Services should continue to grow well as the user base expands and more service offered - I believe Apple Watch is poised for strong growth over next few years - 1 Billion active devices!!
Personally, the only Apple decisions in 2015 that I thought at the time were short sighted that potentially affected this last Qtr and one going forward: - Not having a 4" iPhone 6. I said over a year ago that Apple should keep that going to prevent any other vendor from trying to get share in that space. Apple is big enough & good enough at marketing and segmentation to have 3 sizes of "new" phone - Not updating the iPad Air. Some of that 25% drop is likely a result of that, but of course we will never know. iPad Pro seems awesome, but it is too big for my use cases. An updated Air with pencil support on the other hand will get me to upgrade from Air 2. - It almost seems like Apple came to same conclusion, if they are moving to introduce these models in the first half.
Comments
Remember Capital Return Program DOES NOT EQUAL ROI - it is simply returning the investment at a gain or loss depending on cost basis.
Oil is close to its inflation adjusted bottom, so I think the US dollar will either be stable or lose a bit of steam this year, which will help Apple.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/201688-do-dividend-payouts-reduce-share-prices
To put it another way, do you honestly think AAPL would go up if they announced a reduction in dividends?
That's great but it's just one app - the OS needs much more capability like a real filesystem. Trying to get anything from one app to another is such a huge hassle, and having a third party app like Dropbox isn't a solution.
Also, since cheapo knockoff "tablets" are everywhere it may be that people go for the low-price offerings thinking they'll only use them for web browsing and some games, unaware of the depth of the Apple offerings.
on the other hand, you got Amazon, fantastic revenue growth and no profits, with the pie in the sky promise of one day screw all its loyal customers to pay whatever they want. And I'm an AMZN shareholder.
And yes it also looks like there is a demand for a 4" with top level . That could be another boost.
Few consumers outside of gadgets freaks care about having the latest and greatest if they are happy with what they have. For even people that do care about performance, the current offerings aren’t compelling enough for most with lightning port iPads (~4 years old now) to upgrade yet. I have a first gen Air & it only slows down with some games, other than that rare deficiency, the only thing that appeals to me is the iPad Pro’s improved pencil support. So, I’m happy to wait since my current iPad looks like it has at least a few more years of usable life.
So, it’s not surprising sales would be down, and it would be even less surprising if sales rise either this year or next as people with iPad 3s and below finally replace their iPads since their productive lifespan is probably closer to 6 years than 3 or 4 like current phones.
- Look at multiple years to see what the growth is like when averaged. As noted by another, iPhone sales growth in FY 2015 was huge. Check out the trend over last two years then - or 5. With both upgraders within the user base, growth in emerging markets (see focus on India), and some switchers from Android, Apple will still grow the iPhone platform & its shipments. There may be some lulls in that as we see, but my money is that "peak iPhone" is as likely as the predictions of "peak oil" from 2008.
- Currency headwinds through much of 2014 and 2015 as the USD had a huge rise. Expect this will peak soon, which means those become some currency tailwinds going forward 2016+
- Services should continue to grow well as the user base expands and more service offered
- I believe Apple Watch is poised for strong growth over next few years
- 1 Billion active devices!!
Personally, the only Apple decisions in 2015 that I thought at the time were short sighted that potentially affected this last Qtr and one going forward:
- Not having a 4" iPhone 6. I said over a year ago that Apple should keep that going to prevent any other vendor from trying to get share in that space. Apple is big enough & good enough at marketing and segmentation to have 3 sizes of "new" phone
- Not updating the iPad Air. Some of that 25% drop is likely a result of that, but of course we will never know. iPad Pro seems awesome, but it is too big for my use cases. An updated Air with pencil support on the other hand will get me to upgrade from Air 2.
- It almost seems like Apple came to same conclusion, if they are moving to introduce these models in the first half.