Apple's new 4-inch iPhone to enter mass production soon, estimated to ship 12M units in 2016

Posted:
in iPhone edited February 2016
A new report from KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple's widely rumored next-generation 4-inch iPhone is about to enter mass production and is estimated to 12 million units in 2016.




In a note to investors obtained by AppleInsider, Kuo fails to offer a specific timeline on production, but reiterates his previous hardware predictions of an iPhone 5s-esque design, internals similar to an iPhone 6s and a price of $400 to $500.

The most obvious aesthetic difference between the generations-old iPhone 5s and upcoming 4-inch handset will be a so-called "2.5D" cover glass, a reference to the slightly curved display introduced with iPhone 6. Kuo believes Apple will load the unnamed iPhone with an A9 processor, 12-megapixel rear-facing camera and NFC support for touchless Apple Pay transactions.

KGI is forecasting shipments of 12 million units, down from a previous 18 to 20 million units, citing a probable iPhone 5s price cut. Driven by a low 2015 base and an aggressive pricing model, total 4-inch iPhone shipments will grow 131 percent year-over-year to 37 million units, Kuo says.

Looking ahead, the aggressive play at low- to mid-tier markets will pull down overall iPhone ASP, which Apple is likely to counter by targeting a wider array of market segments. For example, differentiation in the high-end is anticipated to result in two distinct "iPhone 7 Plus" models, one with a dual-camera iSight setup and another sporting a single-camera configuration.

Apple is expected to hold a special media event next month to introduce the new 4-inch handset, a revamped 9.7-inch iPad model and Apple Watch accessories. The most recent rumors peg a keynote presentation on March 22, with products launching shortly thereafter.
Douglas L. Blair
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 32
    Uh, soon? This thing is supposed to go on sale in less than a month. They'd better be heavy into production already at this point unless they're trying to launch the thing with massive stock shortages. 
  • Reply 2 of 32
    calicali Posts: 3,495member
    If these things are real then that 12M number is hilarious.
    jfc1138
  • Reply 3 of 32
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Come on, 12M, the 5s ships 12M in 4 months. Were the hell do they take these numbers?
    It will likely be 25-30M this year minimum
    douglas baileyjfc1138cali
  • Reply 4 of 32
    12 million?  Is that worldwide or just the U.S.?
  • Reply 5 of 32
    Exactly. I would have said at least double 12M considering how many are waiting for a new 4". But Apple doesn't normally give the breakdown right?
    jfc1138cali
  • Reply 6 of 32
    mr omr o Posts: 1,046member
    The new 4 inch iPhone will look cuteSE  :*

    >:x
    edited February 2016
  • Reply 7 of 32
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,982member
    2 iPhone 7 Plus differentiated by an extra camera? This must be the dumbest prediction so far. 
    ai46
  • Reply 8 of 32
    I think this is a mistake. No one wants a small phone (except maybe people who have never used a larger one). Even 12 million might be on the optimistic side.
  • Reply 9 of 32
    rwesrwes Posts: 174member
    tokyojimu said:
    I think this is a mistake. No one wants a small phone (except maybe people who have never used a larger one). Even 12 million might be on the optimistic side.
    I've used my iPhone 6 for over a year. *Still* consider it too large (for me), and would not consider anything larger. *if* the released version (of this supposed 4" revision) has the same components as the current iPhone 6s, I know I will be picking one up on day one! I doubt I'm the only one, but certainly I don't think "no one wants a small phone (except maybe those people who have never used a larger one)." Is accurate. We'll see...
    mike1jfc1138pscooter63realjustinlongjust cruisincaliai46
  • Reply 10 of 32
    It's easy to forget, Ming-Chi Kuo is the same person 2 days before Apple's Q1 earnings release said guidance in Q2 from Apple would be 43 million phones (scared the pants off me).  I went back through his other predictions and this same guy who Business Insider claims is the reincarnation of Nostradamus always estimates too high or too low.  No worries, Business Insider focus remains on his lotto picks whenever he gets lucky.  Same principle in picking the next Stock market crash.  If you say it every year, it will eventually be true.


    caliai46
  • Reply 11 of 32
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,449member
    I would assume Apple is at least taking a look at the middle end market, especially if the other rumor about a 50% price reduction for the 5S is true.
  • Reply 12 of 32
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,449member
    tokyojimu said:
    I think this is a mistake. No one wants a small phone (except maybe people who have never used a larger one). Even 12 million might be on the optimistic side.

    I take the opposite view. I know a number of iPhone users who have not upgraded to the large 6 series phones because they think they are too large. This could be a runaway success that adds to the bottom line and repudiates the “peak iPhone” meme.
    pscooter63just cruisincali
  • Reply 13 of 32
    lkrupp said:
    tokyojimu said:
    I think this is a mistake. No one wants a small phone (except maybe people who have never used a larger one). Even 12 million might be on the optimistic side.

    I take the opposite view. I know a number of iPhone users who have not upgraded to the large 6 series phones because they think they are too large. This could be a runaway success that adds to the bottom line and repudiates the “peak iPhone” meme.
    I'm one of those people of which you speak. However, when I purchased my 5s it was the flagship handset. The problem from what I'm hearing is that the one I'm "holding out for" is going to be a bottom end phone. This is a move that Apple may regret if it is true. You see I don't want a bottom end phone I want a flagship, so unless the new 4' iPhone is the smaller version of the 7 or whatever they'll refer to it as I will not purchase it. 

    Does apple really believe the holdouts for the smaller phone have bugget concerns ? 
  • Reply 14 of 32
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,452member
    lkrupp said:

    I take the opposite view. I know a number of iPhone users who have not upgraded to the large 6 series phones because they think they are too large. This could be a runaway success that adds to the bottom line and repudiates the “peak iPhone” meme.
    I'm one of those people of which you speak. However, when I purchased my 5s it was the flagship handset. The problem from what I'm hearing is that the one I'm "holding out for" is going to be a bottom end phone. This is a move that Apple may regret if it is true. You see I don't want a bottom end phone I want a flagship, so unless the new 4' iPhone is the smaller version of the 7 or whatever they'll refer to it as I will not purchase it. 

    Does apple really believe the holdouts for the smaller phone have bugget concerns ? 
    I bought a 5s a month after they released the 6. I wasn't interested in a larger phone, and although I wanted Pay I figured it would take a while to roll out and maybe there would be a 4" 6s. Well  Pay took longer to roll out than expected so still not a big loss when the 6s came out without one, and here we are 6 months later with a 4" finally. 

    But here's the potential mistake ... If Apple only were to offer a new 5s with Pay and a speed bumped processor, I'd buy it. No questions asked. And if Apple is only charging $450 for it, then they won't be getting the $600 I'd be prepared to pay for it. And I'm hardly the only 4" enthusiast who can otherwise afford that.

    And unlike you, I'm not going to keep using my 5s when even a marginally improved 4" model is available. So Apple gets my money, just not as much as they would have. So that's why I'm holding out for two 4" phones that satisfy all the rumors -- an A8 budget version, and an A9 higher end version, both possibly using the same case to maximize investment, and facilitate upgrades. 
    edited February 2016
  • Reply 15 of 32
    mike1mike1 Posts: 1,941member
    tokyojimu said:
    I think this is a mistake. No one wants a small phone (except maybe people who have never used a larger one). Even 12 million might be on the optimistic side.
    Wow. Speaking for the whole world. Quite a feat. I personally know two people who will upgrade a 4S and a 5C to this phone ASAP.
    pscooter63nolamacguyjust cruisin
  • Reply 16 of 32
    dachardachar Posts: 330member
    tokyojimu said:
    I think this is a mistake. No one wants a small phone (except maybe people who have never used a larger one). Even 12 million might be on the optimistic side.

    I think you are mistaken. Over the last few month there have been many posters on AI including myself who have indicated we don't want a bigger iPhone and then there are those who said they purchased a bigger one and now want to return to a smaller iPhone.  Apple are the only people with the facts but from what they have hinted around 50% of iPhone users don't have the bigger phones.  Clearly some of them don't like the bigger phone. That is potentailly hundreds of millions of potential customers for a new 4 inch iPhone. 
    Douglas L. Blairpscooter63just cruisincali
  • Reply 17 of 32
    A new report from KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple's widely rumored next-generation 4-inch iPhone is about to enter mass production and is estimated to 12 million units in 2016.




    In a note to investors obtained by AppleInsider, Kuo fails to offer a specific timeline on production, but reiterates his previous hardware predictions of an iPhone 5s-esque design, internals similar to an iPhone 6s and a price of $400 to $500.

    The most obvious aesthetic difference between the generations-old iPhone 5s and upcoming 4-inch handset will be a so-called "2.5D" cover glass, a reference to the slightly curved display introduced with iPhone 6. Kuo believes Apple will load the unnamed iPhone with an A9 processor, 12-megapixel rear-facing camera and NFC support for touchless Apple Pay transactions.

    KGI is forecasting shipments of 12 million units, down from a previous 18 to 20 million units, citing a probable iPhone 5s price cut. Driven by a low 2015 base and an aggressive pricing model, total 4-inch iPhone shipments will grow 131 percent year-over-year to 37 million units, Kuo says.

    Looking ahead, the aggressive play at low- to mid-tier markets will pull down overall iPhone ASP, which Apple is likely to counter by targeting a wider array of market segments. For example, differentiation in the high-end is anticipated to result in two distinct "iPhone 7 Plus" models, one with a dual-camera iSight setup and another sporting a single-camera configuration.

    Apple is expected to hold a special media event next month to introduce the new 4-inch handset, a revamped 9.7-inch iPad model and Apple Watch accessories. The most recent rumors peg a keynote presentation on March 22, with products launching shortly thereafter.
  • Reply 18 of 32
    Where is my new Black & Gold SE?
  • Reply 19 of 32
    tokyojimu said:
    I think this is a mistake. No one wants a small phone (except maybe people who have never used a larger one). Even 12 million might be on the optimistic side.

    Just speaking for myself, I have a 6s that I think is too big. I wanted a 4" iPhone when I purchased my 6s but there was none. If Apple were to introduce this 4" iPhone now with 6s guts and then introduce a new 4" model alongside the 7 models I'd be interested in the 4" iPhone 7. I would not want to get a 4" 6s since I already have a 6s. I would be unhappy with Apple if they were to postpone the release of the 4" iPhone 7 until a year after the release of the 4" 6s.
  • Reply 20 of 32
    entropysentropys Posts: 1,889member
    There is the speculation that the SE won't have force touch.  Or 3D Touch whatevs.
    i was planning on giving my 6S to my father and going back to a four inch screen. I use force touch enough that I won't do it. Lost sale.

    There is also the problem of lack of consistency across hardware and software integration. If all new iphones  or iPads don't have force touch, why would developers go to the bother of adding those features, even within Apple itself  let alone third parties?
    edited February 2016
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