KGI says 'iPhone 7' won't have 'many attractive selling points,' predicts competitors to outperform

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  • Reply 21 of 153
    tommikeletommikele Posts: 599member
    Kuo is "noted" by whom, exactly? AI and MR keep saying that, but you never explain where this adoration supposedly comes from -- other than from yourselves, of course. 

    he claims iPhone needs better specs to keep selling? what a load of nonsense. I can't believe even AI doesn't understand why that notion is so wrong-headed. 

    even if iphone does experience decline in sales, that insanely high number will still blow away all others, and suck up all industry profit. as usual.
    I can't comment on his record as a predictor of financial results and sales figures, but he has a record as being the most accurate predictor on forthcoming Apple products. Compared to the analyst community in general, the guy is a genius in terms of knowing what is coming, product features and components. He seems to have the best sources of anyone in the Asian factories and is able to pry pretty good information out of them. This "adoration" (your term, not anyone else's) is wide spread and has been earned in the areas I mentioned. You sound pissed because you don't like what he is saying. What if he just happens to be right about iPhone 7 and then iPhone 7s/8? He is among many analysts who seem to think Apple will show a year over year decline for their flagship model and there is solid explanation behind that conclusion. I hope it's wrong, but a lot of signs point to it. The idea that a very significant revamp is needed to maintain market position and sales growth has a lot credibility to it. He isn't predicting doom, disaster or any other of the moronic things some of those tools seem to say. He is just calling it as he sees it and he has had better vision than most over the last few years. Try being a little less emotional about it and understand it is business, strictly business and he and others are calling it as they see it.
    nhughesgatorguytechlover
  • Reply 22 of 153
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    rob53 said:
    I wish there was a law (and enforcement) that protected companies from analysts making comments without any basis in fact, which absolutely will affect the stock market price not just on a daily basis but long term. These analysts have nothing to lose and are never called on any wrong comments by the SEC or any government agency anywhere in the world. People are sued for slander and libel all the time but I've never heard analysts being sued for anything. Unless Kuo has paid informants in every supplier Apple uses, he has no way of knowing what Apple will or won't do. He's only guessing but his guesses are used to swing stock markets prices and are making huge impacts on a company's livelihood. I know nothing will ever be done but this has to stop. 

    He is not merely guessing to be fair (but your point taken), but he has been a few times too. That thinner MBP he swore was coming in July 2-3 years ago never materialised. Of course when a thinner MBP is released this year it can always be Apple's fault for not delivering on Kuo's schedule. It really does affect both MR and AI's reputations to put this guy on such a ridiculous pedestal. They should have more sense. I'd refer to him as 'sometimes right sometimes wrong Apple analyst'. He has a pretty good track record, but it's not perfect by any means. It's like how a gambler only seems to remember the hits—he's got people confused.
    edited April 2016
  • Reply 23 of 153
    mj webmj web Posts: 918member
    You don't need an analyst. Based on my own observations, I've been questioning what Ive and Cook have been up to recently? Rose gold products, a bland looking watch that requires an iPhone to use, Beats, the contorted non 4K Apple TV? Hell, I may cop a Skylake MBP soon, but the only thing I've seen fit to purchase from Apple lately is a .99 cent a month iCloud upgrade and one Prince song. This isn't Steve Jobs' Apple, and by any impartial measure, Cook and Jony simply aren't cutting it. They are the parties responsible for AAPL stock tanking.
    edited April 2016 bigpicsmanfrommarsReasonable907ac12346Sgoldfish
  • Reply 24 of 153
    bigpicsbigpics Posts: 1,397member
    mj web said:
    You don't need an analyst. Based on my own observations, I've been questioning what Ive and Cook have been up to recently? Rose gold products, a bland looking watch that requires an iPhone to use, Beats, the contorted non 4K Apple TV? Hell, I may cop a Skylake MBP soon, but the only thing I've seen fit to purchase from Apple lately is a .99 cent a month iCloud upgrade and one Prince song. This isn't Steve Jobs' Apple, and by any impartial measure, Cook and Jony simply aren't cutting it. They are the parties responsible for AAPL stock tanking.
    ...and lots (and lots) of watch band styles...

    There's always a price to pay when a visionary founder's gone, at least in time - which can be a period of some years with a full pipeline, good teams and someone who can milk these resources, and Cook and co have been able to more or less do that, but each next move seems more and more in the woods IMO. 

    Cook's a supply chain guy with an interest in social isssues.  Ives a) always needed someone with a stronger vision to keep his "preciousity" in check and b) also feels like he's maybe losing interest besides. 

    Not promising. I'm even moving away from all the time I've spent for many years following Apple sites. 

    Meanwhile, I wanted a port and you gave me a pink colored "refesh" still with only one meaning I'd still have to live with an ugly dongle sitch.  Nah, not enough.
    edited April 2016 Reasonable9076Sgoldfish
  • Reply 25 of 153
    nhughesnhughes Posts: 770editor
    tommikele said:
    Kuo is "noted" by whom, exactly? AI and MR keep saying that, but you never explain where this adoration supposedly comes from -- other than from yourselves, of course. 

    he claims iPhone needs better specs to keep selling? what a load of nonsense. I can't believe even AI doesn't understand why that notion is so wrong-headed. 

    even if iphone does experience decline in sales, that insanely high number will still blow away all others, and suck up all industry profit. as usual.
    I can't comment on his record as a predictor of financial results and sales figures, but he has a record as being the most accurate predictor on forthcoming Apple products. Compared to the analyst community in general, the guy is a genius in terms of knowing what is coming, product features and components. He seems to have the best sources of anyone in the Asian factories and is able to pry pretty good information out of them. This "adoration" (your term, not anyone else's) is wide spread and has been earned in the areas I mentioned. You sound pissed because you don't like what he is saying. What if he just happens to be right about iPhone 7 and then iPhone 7s/8? He is among many analysts who seem to think Apple will show a year over year decline for their flagship model and there is solid explanation behind that conclusion. I hope it's wrong, but a lot of signs point to it. The idea that a very significant revamp is needed to maintain market position and sales growth has a lot credibility to it. He isn't predicting doom, disaster or any other of the moronic things some of those tools seem to say. He is just calling it as he sees it and he has had better vision than most over the last few years. Try being a little less emotional about it and understand it is business, strictly business and he and others are calling it as they see it.
    What this guy said. 
    Reasonable907gatorguytechlover
  • Reply 26 of 153
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    tzeshan said:

    Actually he has numbers for Samsung of 320 million.

    Which also shows what a complete idiot (or liar) he is. Surely he must be aware that the ASP for Samsung is in the low $200 range, meaning the majority of their sales are sub $200 (or even $100)  devices. Yet he has no trouble putting up that 320 million number beside Apple as if they are somehow comparable.

    Next he'll be telling us Toyota is selling more cars than Mercedes.
    He knows the numbers but he chose not to tell us because he will find it hard to explain why Samsung beats Apple so badly.  Then we know the real comparison is the sales numbers of Samsun Galaxy S7 phones.  So the 1% sales for Samsung is meaningless to Apple if it is not Galaxy S7 phones.  Then we know Samsun never reveal sales numbers of Galaxy phones so it can pretend they are real competitors of iPhones. 
    He's comparing all sales of Apple devices too since he includes the SE. 
  • Reply 27 of 153
    Shoot the messenger, but chances are he's not wrong. As someone that has updated every year, I'm not very excited about the 7 after the minor update that was the 6s. Force touch? I think I've used it twice. The bump from 1GB of RAM to 2GB is really the only reason I made the switch. I don't see Apple ditching Lightning for USB-C, and after they intentionally left a USB 3.1 compatible controller out of the 9.7" iPad Pro, I don't see them putting one in the next iPhone either. So what's going to be the killer feature for the iPhone 7? Better camera? The 6s is good enough. Battery life? Doubtful if their goal is still thinner devices. A new color? No one has tried platinum yet I guess. 
    There's not much else to say here. I don't want to be negative, but it is what it is and folks are starting to realize it. WWDC is going to be crucial for Cook and Ive, so I really hope they both have something special in store. 
    6Sgoldfish
  • Reply 28 of 153
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    Shoot the messenger, but chances are he's not wrong. As someone that has updated every year, I'm not very excited about the 7 after the minor update that was the 6s. Force touch? I think I've used it twice. The bump from 1GB of RAM to 2GB is really the only reason I made the switch. I don't see Apple ditching Lightning for USB-C, and after they intentionally left a USB 3.1 compatible controller out of the 9.7" iPad Pro, I don't see them putting one in the next iPhone either. So what's going to be the killer feature for the iPhone 7? Better camera? The 6s is good enough. Battery life? Doubtful if their goal is still thinner devices. A new color? No one has tried platinum yet I guess. 
    There's not much else to say here. I don't want to be negative, but it is what it is and folks are starting to realize it. WWDC is going to be crucial for Cook and Ive, so I really hope they both have something special in store. 

    Let's see the product first. We don't know if iPhone 7 will be thinner at this point. Craig mentioned people wanting more battery life very briefly on Gruber's podcast—he brought it up unprovoked. We are yet to see. Battery life could be a tentpole feature of iPhone 7, as may fast charging. We can only judge for sure when it's announced. But in this modern web era patience is all but lost.

    People are mostly eager to shoot the messenger here because his reputation on a few of these Apple blogs seems to have outgrown reality. He's an analyst not the ruler of a principality.
    edited April 2016 ration al
  • Reply 29 of 153
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    These are the same morons (all analysts) who said the absolute opposite 2 months ago.

    Analysts are even more useless than congress at their job.

    Those people are close to insanity when you look at everything they say. Nothing ads up yet they keep getting paid!
    edited April 2016 cali
  • Reply 30 of 153
    What makes this prediction (and those of other analysts) so ridiculous is they see the iPhone through the very narrow view as a piece of hardware. That and the fact they don't have one iota of imagination.

    iOS 10 is the elephant in the room nobody seems to acknowledge. We might see a customizable home screen, improved widgets or any number of features that would entice people to switch from Android or get people still using old iPhones to upgrade. As far as what the user sees (ignoring under the hood stuff), iOS has changed little the past few versions. A major upgrade here would really shake things up.
    patchythepiratecaliration al
  • Reply 31 of 153
    tzeshantzeshan Posts: 2,351member
    asdasd said:
    tzeshan said:
    He knows the numbers but he chose not to tell us because he will find it hard to explain why Samsung beats Apple so badly.  Then we know the real comparison is the sales numbers of Samsun Galaxy S7 phones.  So the 1% sales for Samsung is meaningless to Apple if it is not Galaxy S7 phones.  Then we know Samsun never reveal sales numbers of Galaxy phones so it can pretend they are real competitors of iPhones. 
    He's comparing all sales of Apple devices too since he includes the SE. 
    He revised his prediction of SE sales from 12 million to 18 million.  We know his prediction of iPhone sales in high end and middle.  He gave no numbers for Samsung.  And he wants us to believe his prediction of Samsung sales increase of 1% is real bad news for Apple?  
  • Reply 32 of 153
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    robbyx said:
    rob53 said:
    I wish there was a law (and enforcement) that protected companies from analysts making comments without any basis in fact, which absolutely will affect the stock market price not just on a daily basis but long term. These analysts have nothing to lose and are never called on any wrong comments by the SEC or any government agency anywhere in the world. People are sued for slander and libel all the time but I've never heard analysts being sued for anything. Unless Kuo has paid informants in every supplier Apple uses, he has no way of knowing what Apple will or won't do. He's only guessing but his guesses are used to swing stock markets prices and are making huge impacts on a company's livelihood. I know nothing will ever be done but this has to stop. 
    Grow up. It's an educated prediction. That's what analysts do. You don't have to pay any attention but for those of us who invest, analyst opinions are often useful.  It's not even close to being slander or libel. It's an OPINION.  Sorry you don't like it.  The guy has a decent track record and I'm sure he has plenty of informants. He's in China after all.  It's not some personal attack on your favorite company/religion.  Take the emotion out of it. This is how investing works. There are analysts covering just about every company on the stock market. 
    How is it an educated opinion, they actually barely support their swill and reverse everything they say in less than 2 months
    when there is no new information coming in!

    Growing up is actually not swallowing garbage and calling it food.

    The fail at argument building and as a result they bat about 20% beyond a 6 months horizon.

    Analysts were 60M+ off in the Q1 to Q3 2015 Financial year if you look at predictions done before 6 months, that's nearly 20% of Apple's total for that year.


    edited April 2016 rob53caliration alpalomine
  • Reply 33 of 153
    nolamacguy said: Kuo is "noted" by whom, exactly? AI and MR keep saying that, but you never explain where this adoration supposedly comes from -- other than from yourselves, of course. he claims iPhone needs better specs to keep selling? what a load of nonsense. I can't believe even AI doesn't understand why that notion is so wrong-headed.
    Ohmygosh, somebody gets it. Nice work nolamacguy. Kuo neglects to point out that Android leads in market share because of PRICE, not because Android is better (far from it). I upgraded my iPhone 5 to the SE first day and say, unequivocally, that the iPhone SE is a fabulous upgrade for lovers of the 4" form factor (60% of iPhone installed base). And the price was terrific. Price is a feature. Now about that price. Is the iPhone 6S, or the purported iPhone "7", really worth $250 more than the iPhone SE? Android manufacturers use price to differentiate themselves from each other. What if the price on the SE is the precursor to a larger Apple strategy for iPhone pricing. GM% on the entry SE is almost 60% (>60% on the 64GB model). What if Apple plans to lower the price of the iPhone "7" to $549? At $549 the entry iPhone "7" GM% will exceed 62% and be a very attractive upgrade for anybody, especially Android switchers, or emerging market buyers. Further I'd like to know the time frame Kuo is forecasting 18 million iPhone SEs. TC states that Apple sold 30 million iPhone 5Ses during 2015. Based on that I'm forecasting between 60 million and 70 million iPhone Sees in the next 12 months.
    ration al
  • Reply 34 of 153
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    tommikele said:
    Kuo is "noted" by whom, exactly? AI and MR keep saying that, but you never explain where this adoration supposedly comes from -- other than from yourselves, of course. 

    he claims iPhone needs better specs to keep selling? what a load of nonsense. I can't believe even AI doesn't understand why that notion is so wrong-headed. 

    even if iphone does experience decline in sales, that insanely high number will still blow away all others, and suck up all industry profit. as usual.
    I can't comment on his record as a predictor of financial results and sales figures, but he has a record as being the most accurate predictor on forthcoming Apple products. Compared to the analyst community in general, the guy is a genius in terms of knowing what is coming, product features and components. He seems to have the best sources of anyone in the Asian factories and is able to pry pretty good information out of them. This "adoration" (your term, not anyone else's) is wide spread and has been earned in the areas I mentioned. You sound pissed because you don't like what he is saying. What if he just happens to be right about iPhone 7 and then iPhone 7s/8? He is among many analysts who seem to think Apple will show a year over year decline for their flagship model and there is solid explanation behind that conclusion. I hope it's wrong, but a lot of signs point to it. The idea that a very significant revamp is needed to maintain market position and sales growth has a lot credibility to it. He isn't predicting doom, disaster or any other of the moronic things some of those tools seem to say. He is just calling it as he sees it and he has had better vision than most over the last few years. Try being a little less emotional about it and understand it is business, strictly business and he and others are calling it as they see it.
    Really, a fracking for real.
    He makes HUNDREDS OF GUESSES, many things people say he predicts, he's NOT THE FIRST ONE WHO MENTIONS IT.
    One "leak" report per 1-2 week with many different guesses inside; later one will turn up all right hey, just like what astrologists or cold readers do...
    He also often reverses his GUESSES, just a few months before releases with BS explanations (Apple switches processes at the last minute, really!)
    about Apple's motivations

    The Apple motivation spiel in his reports are the most galling things. He should just stop it.


    Confirmation bias is really what's going on here.
    nolamacguy
  • Reply 35 of 153
    prolineproline Posts: 223member
    mj web said:
    You don't need an analyst. Based on my own observations, I've been questioning what Ive and Cook have been up to recently? Rose gold products, a bland looking watch that requires an iPhone to use, Beats, the contorted non 4K Apple TV? Hell, I may cop a Skylake MBP soon, but the only thing I've seen fit to purchase from Apple lately is a .99 cent a month iCloud upgrade and one Prince song. This isn't Steve Jobs' Apple, and by any impartial measure, Cook and Jony simply aren't cutting it. They are the parties responsible for AAPL stock tanking.
    You're damn right about that. Steve Jobs' Apple wasted six years between the iPod and iPhone which they filled with "Flower Power" and "Blue Dalmatian" iMacs.
    edited April 2016 rogifan_newpatchythepiratebestkeptsecretpalomine
  • Reply 36 of 153
    yojimbo007yojimbo007 Posts: 1,165member
    KGI and Kuo's tongue is growing longer and longer by the day.
    Few correct predications on product features and now they are Predicting marketing and sales  and Apples business  potential.. On which they have Zero expertise and track-record.
     They have joined the dark side in manipulating the stock .....like many others do... 
    Last push.. Earnings is in two days... Lol 
     F- Them All. 

    edited April 2016
  • Reply 37 of 153
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 4,297member
    Shoot the messenger, but chances are he's not wrong. As someone that has updated every year, I'm not very excited about the 7 after the minor update that was the 6s. Force touch? I think I've used it twice. The bump from 1GB of RAM to 2GB is really the only reason I made the switch. I don't see Apple ditching Lightning for USB-C, and after they intentionally left a USB 3.1 compatible controller out of the 9.7" iPad Pro, I don't see them putting one in the next iPhone either. So what's going to be the killer feature for the iPhone 7? Better camera? The 6s is good enough. Battery life? Doubtful if their goal is still thinner devices. A new color? No one has tried platinum yet I guess. 
    There's not much else to say here. I don't want to be negative, but it is what it is and folks are starting to realize it. WWDC is going to be crucial for Cook and Ive, so I really hope they both have something special in store. 
    So you're basically saying there's nothing that would be exciting anymore yet Cook needs to walk on water at WWDC or Aple is doomed....ok.
    cali
  • Reply 38 of 153
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 4,297member

    bigpics said:
    mj web said:
    You don't need an analyst. Based on my own observations, I've been questioning what Ive and Cook have been up to recently? Rose gold products, a bland looking watch that requires an iPhone to use, Beats, the contorted non 4K Apple TV? Hell, I may cop a Skylake MBP soon, but the only thing I've seen fit to purchase from Apple lately is a .99 cent a month iCloud upgrade and one Prince song. This isn't Steve Jobs' Apple, and by any impartial measure, Cook and Jony simply aren't cutting it. They are the parties responsible for AAPL stock tanking.
    ...and lots (and lots) of watch band styles...

    There's always a price to pay when a visionary founder's gone, at least in time - which can be a period of some years with a full pipeline, good teams and someone who can milk these resources, and Cook and co have been able to more or less do that, but each next move seems more and more in the woods IMO. 

    Cook's a supply chain guy with an interest in social isssues.  Ives a) always needed someone with a stronger vision to keep his "preciousity" in check and b) also feels like he's maybe losing interest besides. 

    Not promising. I'm even moving away from all the time I've spent for many years following Apple sites. 

    Meanwhile, I wanted a port and you gave me a pink colored "refesh" still with only one meaning I'd still have to live with an ugly dongle sitch.  Nah, not enough.
    Jesus if you need more ports get a frigging MacBook Pro. Not difficult.
    patchythepiratenolamacguy
  • Reply 39 of 153
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 18,020member
    mac_128 said:
    My only comment here is that if Apple does deliver on the rumor of the iPhone 7 having minimal cosmetic changes over the 6s, and at most significance offers only a processor and camera upgrade, then removing the 3.5mm jack is going to be detrimental to bottom line sales. If that's actually going to happen, they should save it for the "must have" redesigned iPhone 8 update.
    If all Apple offers is a processor and camera upgrade, it doesn't matter what they do with the 3.5mm jack.   An updated 6s would be completely out of character.  Every new "number" release is a major upgrade.  Making the 7 a minor upgrade would be a huge change in precedent.  I don't see it.  I think it's going to look much different, be more powerful all around, have better battery life, some new feature twists, etc.  
    adonissmu
  • Reply 40 of 153
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 18,020member

    rob53 said:
    I wish there was a law (and enforcement) that protected companies from analysts making comments without any basis in fact, which absolutely will affect the stock market price not just on a daily basis but long term. These analysts have nothing to lose and are never called on any wrong comments by the SEC or any government agency anywhere in the world. People are sued for slander and libel all the time but I've never heard analysts being sued for anything. Unless Kuo has paid informants in every supplier Apple uses, he has no way of knowing what Apple will or won't do. He's only guessing but his guesses are used to swing stock markets prices and are making huge impacts on a company's livelihood. I know nothing will ever be done but this has to stop. 
    Not a huge fan of government regulating speech, but I tend to agree on this one.  
    rob53caliration alpalomine
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