KGI says 'iPhone 7' won't have 'many attractive selling points,' predicts competitors to outperform

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Comments

  • Reply 141 of 153
    jason98jason98 Posts: 768member
    cropr said:

    I don't care for:
     - thinner/lighter devices.  Progress in technology should go to increased battery capacity  

    I assume you don't sleep and doing something with your phone 24 hours a day?
    edited April 2016
  • Reply 142 of 153
    rcfarcfa Posts: 1,124member
    Kuo is "noted" by whom, exactly? AI and MR keep saying that, but you never explain where this adoration supposedly comes from -- other than from yourselves, of course. 

    he claims iPhone needs better specs to keep selling? what a load of nonsense. I can't believe even AI doesn't understand why that notion is so wrong-headed. 

    even if iphone does experience decline in sales, that insanely high number will still blow away all others, and suck up all industry profit. as usual.
    He is noted because his predictions on features, hardware specs, release dates, etc. are the most accurate of all the analysts, strongly hinting to the fact that he may have very potent insider information channels, which in term means his predictions carry weight until such point where he's shown to be massively off the mark, which likely will happen whenever Apple figures out the leak and intentionally plant false information with that source; unless of course his leaks are planted by Apple to prepare the market and investors expectations, start the hype machine, etc.
  • Reply 143 of 153
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    rcfa said:
    Kuo is "noted" by whom, exactly? AI and MR keep saying that, but you never explain where this adoration supposedly comes from -- other than from yourselves, of course. 

    he claims iPhone needs better specs to keep selling? what a load of nonsense. I can't believe even AI doesn't understand why that notion is so wrong-headed. 

    even if iphone does experience decline in sales, that insanely high number will still blow away all others, and suck up all industry profit. as usual.
    He is noted because his predictions on features, hardware specs, release dates, etc. are the most accurate of all the analysts, strongly hinting to the fact that he may have very potent insider information channels, which in term means his predictions carry weight until such point where he's shown to be massively off the mark, which likely will happen whenever Apple figures out the leak and intentionally plant false information with that source; unless of course his leaks are planted by Apple to prepare the market and investors expectations, start the hype machine, etc.
    As noted earlier, Kuo has about a 44% accuracy record. That's worse than random.
  • Reply 144 of 153
    cnocbuicnocbui Posts: 3,613member
    rcfa said:
    He is noted because his predictions on features, hardware specs, release dates, etc. are the most accurate of all the analysts, strongly hinting to the fact that he may have very potent insider information channels, which in term means his predictions carry weight until such point where he's shown to be massively off the mark, which likely will happen whenever Apple figures out the leak and intentionally plant false information with that source; unless of course his leaks are planted by Apple to prepare the market and investors expectations, start the hype machine, etc.
    As noted earlier, Kuo has about a 44% accuracy record. That's worse than random.
    No it isn't.  In flipping a coin, you have only two choices.  The sort of predictions Kuo makes aren't even remotely similar statistically.
    singularity
  • Reply 145 of 153
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,387member
    sog35 said:
    gatorguy said:
    sog35 said:
    It does exist. 

    PED's member website. 

    Kuo is 44% accurate, which is slightly above average. But you don't want to admit this and just question his methods. PED has been covering Apple for decades and is one of the most respected tech journalists.  
    Yes he's respected. Yes it might be on his website. Or maybe it isn't. Kuo might be "above average", and I believe he is, but that's not proven by PED is it? Maybe it is.

    I believe YOU believe PED is absolutely spot on in his appraisal stated in the headline. There's also some paid subscribers of his blog who have actually read his article and methodology and believe that he isn't "spot on", that he could have done better. I do see at least one instance in the comments where he agrees with one of them and admits to errors in calculating accuracy.  Are there others? Dunno.

    You haven't really said anything other than quoting the headline which makes me question whether you've really read the article or not. 


    So 9 out of 10 comments don't question his method, yet you believe the 1 who did.

    I'm done wasting time on a Google lap dog.
    OK Sog, FWIW I'm a subscriber to his blog. Good blog too, you should consider subscribing.

    PED didn't grade Kuo based on all his predictions (approx 91 since 2010 according to him). He picked a selection of fewer than 10 from the past two years to arrive at his "44% accuracy" computation. There's also no mention of any other specific analysts. So you really didn't read his article, did you? You just wanted us to think you did.

    Not only is it irritating when someone isn't straight up, just saying they "don't know" when they don't, but it's also a huge distraction, misleading, and a time-waster. Why can't everyone just be honest? It's better for visitors, members and the overall perception of the forum in the blogoshere at large. It's also a whole lot easier to remember what you said when someone brings it up later. 

    Some will disagree with things I write and I'm fine with that. Some may even disagree with EVERYTHING I write just on general principle. I'm fine with that too. I'll also be the first to admit I may not always be right, and the links I've found may not always be completely non-biased and/or accurate but I've never intentionally written posts meant to mislead readers nor used information/links I knew at the time to be false (despite claims from a certain member here with a fondness for "liar"). It's a dumb immature thing to do. Truth usually wins out tho it make take awhile to poke its little head out from the manure certain types try to bury it with.  
    edited April 2016 singularitytechlover
  • Reply 146 of 153
    It seems like Ming Chi Kuo is better with predictions than Gene Munster. I can't believe Munster still has a job.

    As said earlier in the thread, Mark Gurman seems to do really well. Though Gurman seems to do less predicting his track record is pretty solid.

    Also even if Kuo is correct 44% of the time, anyone who says that is worse than a coin flip is being somewhat disingenuous. Consider the limit of two outcomes of a coin flip versus the virtually limitless number of potential Apple rumor outcomes.
    cnocbui
  • Reply 147 of 153
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    techlover said:
    It seems like Ming Chi Kuo is better with predictions than Gene Munster. I can't believe Munster still has a job.

    As said earlier in the thread, Mark Gurman seems to do really well. Though Gurman seems to do less predicting his track record is pretty solid.

    Also even if Kuo is correct 44% of the time, anyone who says that is worse than a coin flip is being somewhat disingenuous. Consider the limit of two outcomes of a coin flip versus the virtually limitless number of potential Apple rumor outcomes.
    The problem is : He's A LOT WORSE THAN 44%. They get to this crap only by cherry picking. And even most of those he's right, he's only right by correcting previous bad predictions (many different prediction for the same item!), or by repeating consensus predictions he's not even the first one to have put out.

    All analysts are a sham, self aggrandizing ones are even worse than a sham.


  • Reply 148 of 153
    k2kwk2kw Posts: 2,077member
    bluefire1 said:
    If you guys saw the Galaxy 7 Edge, you'll know why the iPhone 7 had better not be a minimal upgrade. 
    I agree.   Both he G7edge and HTC One M10 are both more appealing designs to me.    

    Apple needs to take this opportunity to drop the price of the 6S by at least $50/$75/$100 for the 16GB/64GB/128GB models.   Like wise for the 6S+..

    If the Jan-Mar quarter is bad, then the next two quarters will probably will be horrendous for Apple because they will be competing against Samsung and HTC's best quarters for their products and its unlikely that the new iPad (which is also over-priced) will make up enough sales to offset the decline in iPhone revenue.
    qwwera
  • Reply 149 of 153
    mr omr o Posts: 1,046member
    cnocbui said:
    Such as? You want Apple to make their iPhone out of monomolecular wire or something?
    Such as the S7 Edge vs the iPhone 6s Plus.  They have the same size screen, but that is where the form factor similarities end:





    The edge to edge screen is a gimmick: 

    Its physical size may be the same as the iPhone, but its usable screen is actually smaller. Samsung would have to disable the outer edges of the screen in order to make the edge to edge screen work ergonomically. It is a flawed concept.

    >:x
    SpamSandwich
  • Reply 150 of 153
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,387member
    Onlysog35 said:
    cnocbui said:
    As noted earlier, Kuo has about a 44% accuracy record. That's worse than random.
    No it isn't.  In flipping a coin, you have only two choices.  The sort of predictions Kuo makes aren't even remotely similar statistically.
    It is a coin flip.

    Kuo says iPhone will have OLED.
    Its either YES or NO. 
    50% chance.



    Only if the choice was between OLED and no display at all. But it's not of course, there's more than two choices. 
  • Reply 151 of 153
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    According to CNBC (for whatever it's worth):

    Apple Q2 EPS $1.90 vs. $2.00 Est.; Q2 Revs. $50.6B vs. $51.97B Est.

    Expect the stock to get slaughtered. (Good time to buy maybe)
    edited April 2016
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